Pre-Game Talk: Game 7: last chance for the core

[axlrose87]

Lets just say, this game will change this team dramatically. Either we win and they stay, or they will be demolished in the off season.

I sure hope this is the case. This core should not get another chance..... but I think the only way we move on from this core is if Dubas/Shanahan are fired. They have really dug their heels in and I don’t think they can be trusted to fix this.

 

[Captain Crunch]

The failure of this team is 100% on the players.

Dubas has done a wonderful job at every point of this team, need to keep him next year and beyond so he can figure out what the problem is and fix it

Disagree 1000% (yes,1000)!
Never should have signed Tavares. It sped up what to that point was an outstanding rebuild. And then, the coup du gras so to speak, was dishing out all that money to the other 3, which was on top of what he gave Tavares.
No other team, ever, had half their cap invested in 4 forwards, EVER, and were or became serious Cup contenders.
I love being a fan of the Leafs, but I truly believe Dubas, and therefore Shanahan as well, are not the right people for this franchise.
The only thing that might change my mind, is if we advance to at least the semi finals, and if we lose, it’s in 6 or 7 hard fought, gut wrenching games.

 

[TheGroceryStick]

Said no one ever:
Habs deserve this
Habs have earned this
Habs are dominating

what is being said:
Price is standing on his head carrying this pathetic team
Leafs are shooting themselves in the foot
Leafs are no shows
Leafs are so much better than this Habs team
This shouldn’t be game 7
Habs are on cloud 9 for even being here

Yet, all they'll need is to play us tough for 60 more mins and watch us crumble under pressure.

Anderson and co. Gunna come out hitting everything.... why wouldn't they. They'll leave it all on the line and we'll likely play perimeter hockey.

 

[Aashir]

As weak as Matthews and Marner have been offensively, they haven't been on the ice for a goal against at even strength. Strangely, all the players who've been scoring are the same ones who are being scored on.

Don't know how to process that, personally, but those are the facts.

Tbh, for a third line, that’s a good stat
For a first line, I’d rather have them score 7 or 8 goals and give up 5 or 6, playing defence against 3 40 point players isn’t too impressive

 

[Torontonian]

Wonder if Keefe goes to the blender like he did in last years game 5 for game 7. This will be the game that decides if anything has really changed, if they don't come out like there life is on the line and don't set the pace and tone, I don't see a point in having the core together next seson.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Hmmm let's see, up 3-1 in a series .. Lose back to back games in Overtime after staging two multi-goal come backs.

Yeah this isn't going to end well at all.

My prediction: the Leafs jump out to a 2-0 lead early. Montreal cuts it to 2-1. The Leafs pull ahead 3-1 by the end of the second period. Montreal comes back and wins 4-3 i regulation. Because that's what this core does. Loses games in specularly different wants. Blowing a 3-1 series lead is just another different chapter in this embarrassing book.

This is the way.

 

[robertmac43]

I hope we come out flying...and if we don't come out, someone does something about it.

Game 1 of the season we looked flat against the Habs, Simmonds drops the gloves and gets the bench going, and reminds them they are playing hockey. Do something like that again.

 

[Mitch Matthews]

People are overreacting. We're still in the early stages of Matthews and Marner's careers. Marner just turned 24. Matthews turns 24 in September. Nylander just turned 25 and has finally figured it out this series. Let's give them another year

Also, I think people are underestimating how big of a loss Tavares is. Nobody works harder than him during a game

 

[WilliamInLondon]

Disagree 1000% (yes,1000)!
Never should have signed Tavares. It sped up what to that point was an outstanding rebuild. And then, the coup du gras so to speak, was dishing out all that money to the other 3, which was on top of what he gave Tavares.
No other team, ever, had half their cap invested in 4 forwards, EVER, and were or became serious Cup contenders.
I love being a fan of the Leafs, but I truly believe Dubas, and therefore Shanahan as well, are not the right people for this franchise.
The only thing that might change my mind, is if we advance to at least the semi finals, and if we lose, it’s in 6 or 7 hard fought, gut wrenching games.

I don't agree with everything you said, but probably about 95% of it. Dubas and Shanahan are responsible for the current predicament. The problem is that you compile winning teams not just by managing assets, but by managing people. The Tavares + Marner re-signing were overpays which have impacted the team's ability to optimise for its cap. I would also say that it's management's responsibility to ensure that the right team dynamics and culture are instilled and developed and that they are conducive to a Stanley Cup winning team. I haven't seen any evidence of this in the past 5 years and this is the problem. Thornton/Simmonds/Spezza/Brodie - these guys help, but they're not your star players.

It's not a perfect analogy, but there are parallels between sports and business. I head up a department for a bigtech company (i.e. facebook/amazon/google/etc.) and am responsible for hiring and developing the team. One thing that I look out for is character - grit, determination, and resilience on top of core skills. You can hire the best software engineers and pay them a boatload of money, but if they're complacent/go through the motions, don't work well with your product managers, or fundamentally don't believe in agile sprint processes (but your company operates on this model), then you're in for a world of pain. It doesn't matter how amazing they are in coding at Python or Java and how much you pay them - if they don't have the right disposition and can't deliver the necessary things for the business, then you've lost. It also doesn't matter if you fill out the rest of your non-core team like the executive assistant or brand specialists with the necessary intangibles...they're not the ones building your actual product or service and responsible for hitting minimum-viable-products and deadlines lol.

It's kind of the same thing here. Your Spezzas and your Thorntons are your executive assistants and marketing managers. They can help you along, but they're not going to make your team if it's trending toward broken...

 

[egd27]

Unfortunately we haven't played Edmonton yet.

Or a couple of rookies. I bet you if we had to face an Elvis Merzlinks, or Joonas Korpisalo that we'd be in the 2nd round by now

Shame on you both for missing the obvious David Ayres reference.

 

[sxvnert]

JT, AM, MM all together for Game 5 last season was a rookie coaching mistake. If he makes the same mistake tomorrow he should be given a one way ticket to a second tier NCAA program.

JT was a terrible fit on LW, Nylander isn't.

 

[TMLeafer]

There was also definitely a lot more clutching and grabbing in G6, which I'd totally expect to carry over to G7.

Well, the PP is atrocious anyway so might as well play 5 on 5.

 

[Gallagbi]

JT was a terrible fit on LW, Nylander isn't.

He looked great there, but it weakened the second line significantly. The top line also needed the help with Marner's disappearing act.

 

[jimmycarter]

Just win for once, just win a game 7 and not be the laughing stock of the hockey world.
Good lord I can’t believe it’s come to this

 

[CanadasTeam]

At least this core group isn't the first to choke after leading the series 3-1

1987 Norris Division Finals between Leafs and Detroit where they were up 3-1 only to lose the next 3.

* The wikipedia page will highly likely get updated to add the 2021 Habs to the List of teams to overcome 3–1 series deficits - Wikipedia

 

[TMLeafer]

Split up Matthews and Marner. They try too many cute plays together.

 

[Gallagbi]

Split up Matthews and Marner. They try too many cute plays together.

It was the play once Tavares went down, but likely too late now IMO.

 

[Mats13]

People are overreacting. We're still in the early stages of Matthews and Marner's careers. Marner just turned 24. Matthews turns 24 in September. Nylander just turned 25 and has finally figured it out this series. Let's give them another year

Also, I think people are underestimating how big of a loss Tavares is. Nobody works harder than him during a game

Kane and Toews had two cups by that age.

Marner makes more than Kane does (or ever has) and he’s a complete playoff no show who can’t shoot the puck. Do you know how good Kane was in the playoffs?

 

[egd27]

JT was a terrible fit on LW, Nylander isn't.

And when Montreal can set their entire defensive strategy around stopping one line?

It wasn't a matter of JT not fitting, it was allowing Torts to completely focus on stopping three guys.

If Keefe loaded up that line, Ducharme never lets more than one guy cross centre when they are on the ice.

Clog up the neutral zone, collapse in the d zone, jump on any loose pucks because there is no fear of being hit by Marner or Nylander, let them skate around the perimeter until they're tired and go for a change.

 

[TopChedder]

Kane and Toews had two cups by that age.

Marner makes more than Kane does (or ever has) and he’s a complete playoff no show who can’t shoot the puck. Do you know how good Kane was in the playoffs?

Marner should be embarrassed with his play and contract. If he has a big game 7 and plays better going forward I can cut him some slack, if he is a no show and we lose tomorrow he needs to go.

It's very simple.

I also can't stand that him and Matty almost seem offended by reporters asking them questions about big contracts & play. Fans and media are what MAKES YOU the money, and we have every right to call you bums, deal with it and accept it with a damn smile.

If you don't like it play better.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I was going to include the second as well, but I thought we out shot them so I was willing to give a little bit on that.
But you’re right, we really only showed up in the last 8 minutes and the overtime.
I find it incredulous that, starting in game 5, they didn’t come out with guns ablazing, so to speak. How in Hell they haven’t figured out what it takes to win in the playoffs, just boggles my mind.
As far as I’m concerned, unless we make it to the semifinals, and go at least 6 hard fought, gut wrenching games, some serious changes need to be made, starting with Dubas and Shanahan.

That's where I set the bar as well. Get to the semis and if you don't win, at least fight like hell. Anything less than that and this team will have underachieved (again), simple as that. Not sure where I'd start with the changes, I think for the most part Dubas has done a really good job and Shanahan hired him so I'd stick with them for now.

I don't know much about sports gambling but I'm pretty sure that in some sports the odds are based on who has bet on who guarenting that the odds maker makes money no matter who wins. I would imagine that wherever you are getting your odds from that those odds makers are counting on things like your emotions to predict more about who is betting on who than the actual result of the contest. They can probably predict betting patterns based on emotions to set the odds better than they can predict scores. Either way anyone who bets serious money on sports is probably pretty dumb because NO ONE can predict injuries or luck.

That's actually the case for all sports and based on your comments ITT I'd say I know a lot more about sports betting then you do. I have also a few tens of thousands of dollars in profits to back me up but that's another story. Like I said, if you believe the game tomorrow is 50/50, then bet on it. If you can get almost 2 to 1 on your money on a coin flip, you should be betting and if you can do that on a regular basis, you should be rich pretty quickly. If you're wondering how much you should bet, this should be of some help.

Kelly criterion - Wikipedia.

To simplify the Kelly system, the amount you should bet is basically your theoretical edge, multiplied by the odds of cashing your bet multiplied by your bankroll.

Edge:
If you think the odds of MTL winning are 50%, the break even point for the payoff would be 100 dollars on a 100 dollar bet. You're being offered 180 so that is about 80% too much. So that's your edge - 80%. BTW that is an absolutely massive edge!!

Odds of cashing your bet:
That's easy, it's 50% according to you. You're wrong of course but if you're sure you're right, that's the number.

So 80% multiplied by .5 is 40%. That's the proper amount to bet according to Kelly. So if your bankroll for betting is say 10 grand, you should be risking 4 grand on this one bet. Bets with such a high EV (expected value, explained here if you're not familiar with the term Expected Value (EV). ) don't come along too often. I'd say take advantage of this for that reason except for the fact that you're just wrong, this game is not a 50/50 proposition so ignore the oddsmakers at your peril.

And BTW, there are people who bet serious money on sports and some of them do win, there aren't many like that though and it's not easy. And injuries or luck don't enter into it in the long run.

If you're going to use odds makers to discuss the quality of the Leafs vs watching the actual games and understanding things like the cap then that's just sad.

I watch almost all Leaf games, been that way for a very long time and I understand the cap just fine. As far as odds makers go, I think we've covered that already, how much money are you going to bet on MTL tomorrow?

 

[TakeTheBody]

The Leafs can make excuses. I really don't want to hear them. since Kadri left the weakness has been 3C. When JT got hurt Alex Kerfoot became our 2C. On his best day Kerfoot is a 3-4W. However he has played well at2C this series and Keefe still chose to split up him and Willy. Our blue line has more depth than the forwards these days. My how times have changed. Muzzin might be the guy the Leafs can least afford to lose. Regardless of all the injuries the Leafs should win tomorrow night. If not, blow it up.

 

[Pete2000]

 

[Cobra777]

No, my point is that you and others here trashed Phil for being all kinds of things.

And then he went on to win 2 cups in a starring role.

And now you're doing the same to Marner and Matthews.

It mean, that's what I wrote.

Exactly what I wrote.

If you guys could take this frothing hatred down a notch, you'd be able to read it.

Leafs fans have a thing for blindly hating their superstars.
And then bemoan the lack of stars on the team while feeling a sense of reverence for those same stars they ran out of town.

BS Kessel played like if he had a dozen eggs in his pocket not one would get broken and so does a few of our current roster, stop trying to tell me what I see and don't see ff sake and then calling people children, who are you the high and mighty see all know all? The posters who argued your post are 100% correct in that he played better when supported and was not the guy. He plays better on a team that does all the heavy lifting for him as his only threat is his shot and nothing more.

Many fans including myself have been fans for over 40yrs and have seen every painful debaucle imagineable from this franchise from missed calls 93 to cheap polyester suit meltdowns from a myriad of different management and player groups.

You have the stones to call people children because they are tired of losing and mediocrity for over 50+ yrs of supporting this team with all the excuses shows your arrogance.

Through all my posts I have never attacked a poster and have mostly been positive but under circumstances of another freakin meltdown by this team yet again, I find your hot take comment equating rightly so pissed off fans to acting childlike aggravating.

 

[nsleaf]

That's where I set the bar as well. Get to the semis and if you don't win, at least fight like hell. Anything less than that and this team will have underachieved (again), simple as that. Not sure where I'd start with the changes, I think for the most part Dubas has done a really good job and Shanahan hired him so I'd stick with them for now.



That's actually the case for all sports and based on your comments ITT I'd say I know a lot more about sports betting then you do. I have also a few tens of thousands of dollars in profits to back me up but that's another story. Like I said, if you believe the game tomorrow is 50/50, then bet on it. If you can get almost 2 to 1 on your money on a coin flip, you should be betting and if you can do that on a regular basis, you should be rich pretty quickly. If you're wondering how much you should bet, this should be of some help.

Kelly criterion - Wikipedia.

To simplify the Kelly system, the amount you should bet is basically your theoretical edge, multiplied by the odds of cashing your bet multiplied by your bankroll.

Edge:
If you think the odds of MTL winning are 50%, the break even point for the payoff would be 100 dollars on a 100 dollar bet. You're being offered 180 so that is about 80% too much. So that's your edge - 80%. BTW that is an absolutely massive edge!!

Odds of cashing your bet:
That's easy, it's 50% according to you. You're wrong of course but if you're sure you're right, that's the number.

So 80% multiplied by .5 is 40%. That's the proper amount to bet according to Kelly. So if your bankroll for betting is say 10 grand, you should be risking 4 grand on this one bet. Bets with such a high EV (expected value, explained here if you're not familiar with the term Expected Value (EV). ) don't come along too often. I'd say take advantage of this for that reason except for the fact that you're just wrong, this game is not a 50/50 proposition so ignore the oddsmakers at your peril.

And BTW, there are people who bet serious money on sports and some of them do win, there aren't many like that though and it's not easy. And injuries or luck don't enter into it in the long run.



I watch almost all Leaf games, been that way for a very long time and I understand the cap just fine. As far as odds makers go, I think we've covered that already, how much money are you going to bet on MTL tomorrow?

Gambling if for fools.