GDT: G1: NYR @ Wild 7pm CT (BSN)

[Ban Hammered]

Maybe, but I'm still more inclined to forgive the scorned employee for exercising the one tool he had to get out of a bad situation (for himself) than I am the manager for creating the bad situation with his hubris.

Of course you are.
Talbot was nothing special and he and his wife decided to throw a nutty and he got shipped out.
Talbot wasn't doing the job, that's why we brought someone else in.
Guerin wanted a split situation this year so he did see Talbot had some value...but no Talbot couldn't stomach that. It was a definite tantrum on Talbot's part. Should Guerin have talked to him? Sure...but let's not act like Talbot did the right thing with his behavior after it.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Of course you are.
Talbot was nothing special and he and his wife decided to throw a nutty and he got shipped out.
Talbot wasn't doing the job, that's why we brought someone else in.
Guerin wanted a split situation this year so he did see Talbot had some value...but no Talbot couldn't stomach that. It was a definite tantrum on Talbot's part. Should Guerin have talked to him? Sure...but let's not act like Talbot did the right thing with his behavior after it.

Sure.

 

[Wild11MN]

It is impressive to start the season off with nearly 4 goals allowed above expected. I don’t know if even Dubnyk rivaled that.

I guess I don't really understand that stat. They had a bunch of tap-ins and empty nets. I'm not sure any goalie would have let in fewer than 4 with the shot quality they had.

One thing I read recently is how the biggest downfall of the "expected goals" stat is that it simply doesn't account for puck movement before the shot, it's only about where the shot was taken from. It then noted that "shots that are preceded by a pass are more than twice as likely to go in as those that aren’t". Seems obvious, but "expected goals" doesn't account for that.

 

[63firebird]

But when one has nothing to do with the other... it's an odd statement to make.
Remember...the team wanted to go with a split time situation till Talbot and his wife had a tantrum.

Was the tantrum before or after Fleury was given the net for the playoffs?

 

[Ban Hammered]

Was the tantrum before or after Fleury was given the net for the playoffs?

It was after. So Talbot is absolved from being a professional because he lost his job? Give me a break.

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

Of course you are.
Talbot was nothing special and he and his wife decided to throw a nutty and he got shipped out.
Talbot wasn't doing the job, that's why we brought someone else in.
Guerin wanted a split situation this year so he did see Talbot had some value...but no Talbot couldn't stomach that. It was a definite tantrum on Talbot's part. Should Guerin have talked to him? Sure...but let's not act like Talbot did the right thing with his behavior after it.

This idea that he threw a tantrum is ridiculous, it is so beyond overblown at this point. You're acting like Cam held up Geurin at gunpoint and went into the front office with an S-Vest and started kicking and screaming. His agent and wife voiced their displeasure over the situation, and Geurin is just as much at fault for not communicating with him and his childish bullshit answers about how he "doesn't have to do shit" and whatnot. Talbot couldn't stomach the split? Maybe if the guy you blindly defend with every single one of your posts did his f***ing job and talked to the player, things would have shook out differently.

The FACT is, that when MAF was brought in, which I defended, Cam played IMMENSLEY better than him in front of the exact same defense and team, and was then passed over in the playoffs while his coach called it an easy decision on several occasions publicly, even if that was out of context. Every statistic known to mankind showed we were a better team with Cam than MAF. Cam had every right to be displeased with the situation, and when Guerin did not like the pushback, he shipped him off which is his right.

 

[Spurgeon]

It was after. So Talbot is absolved from being a professional because he lost his job? Give me a break.

He wasn’t outplayed by Fleury whatsoever to justify being benched for the first 5 games of the playoffs. Fleury started those games because Guerin paid a 2nd for him at the deadline.

 

[Wild11MN]

It was after. So Talbot is absolved from being a professional because he lost his job? Give me a break.

I agree 100% that Talbot was an idiot and played it unprofessionally. But the guy was 13-0-3 in the run up to the playoffs. You can't really "lose your job" playing like that.

Whether the Wild should have played Fleury five straight games to start the playoffs is an entirely different subject, but let's not pretend Fleury was the much better goalie here.

 

[63firebird]

Honestly, I don't think it would have mattered. He sucked a lot last year too.

I'm a lot more concerned about the lack of defense. Brodin has been steady and reliable. Looked like crap tonight. Even the forwards. Nobody put in the effort to defend. How can they not be fired up for opening night?

Defence is done by all 5. I’m more concerned with overall grit. Rangers were swept by Wild last year but they got the memo- goon it up. This is exactly how playoffs will look if the Wild make it. I’ve been hearing about Rossi for two years but he’s so small he looks like a Pee wee. That’s our hope up the center?

 

[Ban Hammered]

Fluery was in there because he has the playoff pedigree. Personally I don't care one way or another why he was played over Talbot. Talbot decided to be unprofessional about it and you guys absolve him from it because you don't like Fluery and you don't like Guerin.
This is a business and things aren't fair.

 

[Ban Hammered]

This idea that he threw a tantrum is ridiculous, it is so beyond overblown at this point. You're acting like Cam held up Geurin at gunpoint and went into the front office with an S-Vest and started kicking and screaming. His agent and wife voiced their displeasure over the situation, and Geurin is just as much at fault for not communicating with him and his childish bullshit answers about how he "doesn't have to do shit" and whatnot. Talbot couldn't stomach the split? Maybe if the guy you blindly defend with every single one of your posts did his f***ing job and talked to the player, things would have shook out differently.

The FACT is, that when MAF was brought in, which I defended, Cam played IMMENSLEY better than him in front of the exact same defense and team, and was then passed over in the playoffs while his coach called it an easy decision on several occasions publicly, even if that was out of context. Every statistic known to mankind showed we were a better team with Cam than MAF. Cam had every right to be displeased with the situation, and when Guerin did not like the pushback, he shipped him off which is his right.

Talbot had a good stretch but neither the coaching staff nor management trusted him with a playoff team...which is their right. And it's why Fluery was brought in. Again...I don't care why it was done...I care that this revisionist history says Talbot was done dirty and some sort of victim because he lost his job.
Oh well. It happens and it will happen again to other players all over the league for the rest of time.
And what I defend isn't Guerin, it's blind hatred of management because they don't do what the fans want and the insistence of some fans that they could absolutely do it better.
It gets old and if this is how the GDTs are going to be this year...this board will be unreadable.

 

[63firebird]

It's really not, and frankly you've had an axe to grind with Rossi since he was drafted, so I'm not totally surprised by this.

You still haven't suggested a better alternative for that top center spot. If we both get really honest with each other, we know Rask would not be a better option. It's pretty ludicrous to even suggest that.

There is no alternative. JEEK is the only center that can be used in all situations. Hartman, Gaudreau , Rossi seem pretty useless so far but it’s only one game.

 

[Spurgeon]

Fluery was in there because he has the playoff pedigree. Personally I don't care one way or another why he was played over Talbot. Talbot decided to be unprofessional about it and you guys absolve him from it because you don't like Fluery and you don't like Guerin.
This is a business and things aren't fair.

You’re absolutely right it’s a business and a crucial element of a successful manager is being able to effectively manage conflict. Guerin is horrendous at this. Relations with players and your external perception matter.

Guerin has created an alarming habit of pissing off players.

 

[63firebird]

It was after. So Talbot is absolved from being a professional because he lost his job? Give me a break.

I didn’t say that. Just asked a question. I’m not judging Talbot. It seemed to go against the “team “ mentality to give the net to Fleury only come playoffs. Especially when Fleurycouldn’t steal a game.

 

[BagHead]

I guess I don't really understand that stat. They had a bunch of tap-ins and empty nets. I'm not sure any goalie would have let in fewer than 4 with the shot quality they had.

One thing I read recently is how the biggest downfall of the "expected goals" stat is that it simply doesn't account for puck movement before the shot, it's only about where the shot was taken from. It then noted that "shots that are preceded by a pass are more than twice as likely to go in as those that aren’t". Seems obvious, but "expected goals" doesn't account for that.

Expected Goals Against is definitely not a perfect stat, which is why you should probably take it in context of other stats. If one is inclined to ONLY use Expected Goals Against(xGA), one should probably stick to only comparing goalies who are on the same team, as they have the same defense in front of them.

Last year all of our goalies had a negative Goals Saved Above Expected (the difference between Goals Against and xGA). So, either all of our goalies were bad relative to the rest of the league, or our defense lets too many cross-ice passes happen. Probably both are a little true. This last game seems a microcosm of that truth, if it is indeed a truth.

 

[Ban Hammered]

You’re absolutely right it’s a business and a crucial element of a successful manager is being able to effectively manage conflict. Guerin is horrendous at this. Relations with players and your external perception matter.

Guerin has created an alarming habit of pissing off players.

Based on what? Players get pissed...and I for one appreciate a little bit of honesty with it. Guerin in my opinion was right when he said he didn't have to do shit with handling the goaltending situation with Talbot. First off...why didn't Evason say anything? Why does it have to be the GM? Second...again these guys are supposed to be pros...do they really need to be coddled?
Yes Guerin had some faults in it...but it was obvious Fluery was brought in and played because they didn't trust Talbot in the playoffs no matter how he played down the stretch. Is that fair? No. It is justifiable? Yes it is. If it had worked...no one here is complaining. It didn't...oh well and we move on.
Again...Guerin saw Talbot had some value as the plan was to split time...Talbot decided that wasn't good enough and forced his way out.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

I guess I don't really understand that stat. They had a bunch of tap-ins and empty nets. I'm not sure any goalie would have let in fewer than 4 with the shot quality they had.

One thing I read recently is how the biggest downfall of the "expected goals" stat is that it simply doesn't account for puck movement before the shot, it's only about where the shot was taken from. It then noted that "shots that are preceded by a pass are more than twice as likely to go in as those that aren’t". Seems obvious, but "expected goals" doesn't account for that.

I know this is the case for some model, but others are more complex with the things they take into account. I don’t know whether NST has a better model or not, though. I will say that I’m sure there are some goalies out there that wouldn’t have given up more than 3 goals in this game. Flower was swimming in so many goals. Even the first goal, many goalies would’ve saved because they wouldn’t have over-committed on the cross crease pass. I don’t know, it just seems like a lot of the goals we’re a product of fluery. Like I know the defenseman didn’t help him out a ton today, but sometimes you have to make a second save and he just doesn’t.

 

[57special]

Rossi was mediocre last night, but he had a lot of company. He continues to look stronger this year- last year he would've been run over continuously. Right now he just looks a bit sluggish. i think part of it is physical- he simply isn't that fast- but the main thing is that he hasn't adjusted to the speed of the NHL, os his reads are off. That's normal.

In the 1st period i was muttering to myself about how they have neutered Boldy, a la pre-Boldy Fiala, but he exploded with two goals assisted by his new linemates, Dumba and Middleton. That really tells you all you need to know about Gaudreau and Steel. I think Gaudreau is a decent choice as 3rd Banana on a line with Boldy, but he can't be the main guy.

We'll see if Rossi develops so he can take a spot beside Boldy. It will take time. At least ten games if we are lucky.

 

[ThatGuy22]

I guess I don't really understand that stat. They had a bunch of tap-ins and empty nets. I'm not sure any goalie would have let in fewer than 4 with the shot quality they had.

One thing I read recently is how the biggest downfall of the "expected goals" stat is that it simply doesn't account for puck movement before the shot, it's only about where the shot was taken from. It then noted that "shots that are preceded by a pass are more than twice as likely to go in as those that aren’t". Seems obvious, but "expected goals" doesn't account for that.

Goalies are expected to make hard saves as well. Yes it's easy to hand waive away the goals when its 1 or 2, but when you allow 6 high danger goals only stopping 53% of high danger chances. The goalie had a bad game.

The teams had similar high danger chances (13 to 11).

Igor stopped .818 % of his high danger shots, which is in the range you'd expect (slightly low actually 830 is about average for a starter).

Fleury had a .538 on High danger chances, allowing 6 goals.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

Rossi was mediocre last night, but he had a lot of company. He continues to look stronger this year- last year he would've been run over continuously. Right now he just looks a bit sluggish. i think part of it is physical- he simply isn't that fast- but the main thing is that he hasn't adjusted to the speed of the NHL, os his reads are off. That's normal.

In the 1st period i was muttering to myself about how they have neutered Boldy, a la pre-Boldy Fiala, but he exploded with two goals assisted by his new linemates, Dumba and Middleton. That really tells you all you need to know about Gaudreau and Steel. I think Gaudreau is a decent choice as 3rd Banana on a line with Boldy, but he can't be the main guy.

We'll see if Rossi develops so he can take a spot beside Boldy. It will take time. At least ten games if we are lucky.

Great post. Last night looked like a 'studs & duds' approach to building a top 9. I guess a little bit expected with Fiala gone but damn, the holes are glaring holes now. And that is factoring in that Hartman looked like Hartman last night and not Brian Rolston 2.0.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Based on what? Players get pissed...and I for one appreciate a little bit of honesty with it. Guerin in my opinion was right when he said he didn't have to do shit with handling the goaltending situation with Talbot. First off...why didn't Evason say anything? Why does it have to be the GM? Second...again these guys are supposed to be pros...do they really need to be coddled?
Yes Guerin had some faults in it...but it was obvious Fluery was brought in and played because they didn't trust Talbot in the playoffs no matter how he played down the stretch. Is that fair? No. It is justifiable? Yes it is. If it had worked...no one here is complaining. It didn't...oh well and we move on.
Again...Guerin saw Talbot had some value as the plan was to split time...Talbot decided that wasn't good enough and forced his way out.

That's one hell of a nice job safety net:

Did it work? Yes? Great, give me the credit.

Did it work? No? Oh well, move on. No further analysis allowed.

Probably the envy of the GMs in the league right there.

 

[Ban Hammered]

That's one hell of a nice job safety net:

Did it work? Yes? Great, give me the credit.

Did it work? No? Oh well, move on. No further analysis allowed.

Probably the envy of the GMs in the league right there.

And it's how most GMs have it...again...welcome to the business.
And I doubt that if it had worked...Guerin would be getting a lot of the credit here... it'd be Fluery and rightly so there.
My point is...it's not like it hasn't been analyzed to death here...it just gets revisionist history and absolves Talbot of any wrong doing in a lot of eyes.
Both were at fault and in my eyes...Talbot isn't a player to be pining over no matter how Fluery plays.

 

[Spurgeon]

And it's how most GMs have it...again...welcome to the business.
And I doubt that if it had worked...Guerin would be getting a lot of the credit here... it'd be Fluery and rightly so there.
My point is...it's not like it hasn't been analyzed to death here...it just gets revisionist history and absolves Talbot of any wrong doing in a lot of eyes.
Both were at fault and in my eyes...Talbot isn't a player to be pining over no matter how Fluery plays.

He could’ve avoided the situation by trading Talbot instead of Kahkonen to begin with, especially if the plan was to sign Fleury to an extension. Getting ahead of that contentious situation was 100% the way to go OR pivoting when it was apparent that Fleury did not play well. I think Guerin had an issue with the sunk-cost fallacy of giving a 2nd up for Fleury and then not wanting to lose him in the offseason because of it.

Going from Talbot to Fleury was a lateral move in terms of skill level, but there’s a lot more risk in the variability of Fleury’s play to Talbot’s. Giving Fleury 2 years was unnecessary too.

 

[Northerner]

Can't believe we kicked Talbot (and Kaakonen) to the curb for what we saw last night. Absolutely brutal performance by Fleury. Guerin has some mancrush thing for Fleury and I am not sure why. One of his worst moves as GM I think.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

And it's how most GMs have it...again...welcome to the business.
And I doubt that if it had worked...Guerin would be getting a lot of the credit here... it'd be Fluery and rightly so there.
My point is...it's not like it hasn't been analyzed to death here...it just gets revisionist history and absolves Talbot of any wrong doing in a lot of eyes.
Both were at fault and in my eyes...Talbot isn't a player to be pining over no matter how Fluery plays.

Welcome to the business.