Confirmed with Link: G Ilya Samsonov heads to arbitration (Awarded 1 year, $3.55M)

[ULF_55]

The only out then is a trade with a sweetener if some/any team agrees and at what cost?

Better hope Treliving is as good as previous GM's with massaging the Cap.

 

[mouser]

Friedman brings up a good point in the CBA and that is "You Can Not Buy Out and Injured player".. This could cause quite a problem for the Leafs in regards to Sammy's case and its outcome..

A short 2nd buyout window occurs shortly after the Arb case time period ends.. The original thought being Leafs use this to buyout Murray, use the free cap space to cover Samsonov's new deal.. However if Murray can with medical evidence prove he is not healthy currently that could block a buyout process.. That would leave the Leafs currently +$3.2 mil over the cap with both Sammy now signed via Arb ruling or team agreement and also still have Murray at $4.687 mil also on the books.

Now the assumption has been if you don't buy Murray out simply place him on LTIR and problem solved. However the problem here doesn't mean just because Murray is ruled unhealthy and therefore can't be bought out presently, that also doesn't mean months from now at training camp that he couldn't be ruled healthy and it certainly doesn't suggest Murray can be placed legally on LTIR for the entire season either. Point being Leafs might not be able to magically and legally make Murray contract disappear and thus leaving the Leafs with BOTH Sammy and Murray's contracts on the books and part of the cap ceiling calculation. Big Problem there !!!

The only out then is a trade with a sweetener if some/any team agrees and at what cost?

IMO, there's no reason to believe Murray is currently injured. He was cleared by the team doctors to play on May 9th. Unless he failed his exit physical he's fair game for a buyout.

Players can always file a grievance, but I wouldn't put much confidence in him winning.

 

[mouser]

may be a tactic to save the additional 775K to be used elsewhere if/when needed instead of giving it to samsonov? basically claim in arbitration that they don't have room for 4.425M per year contract

if it was me that's how i'd approach it

How much $ or cap space a team has is inadmissible for salary arbitration.

 

[andora]

forward line up for us (or atleast how I'd like to see it)

Bertuzzi-Matthews-Nylander
Knies-Domi-Marner
Robertson-Tavares-Jankrok
Reaves-Kampf-Lafferty
Holmberg

My trade target would be Jankrok/Brodie. And of course Nylander if a great deal shows up or Willy ain't willing to sign a reasonable cap hit.

Murray buyout or trading Murray with sweetners attached is not a good idea. Dubas has traded so many picks; we need some for the future

Murray makes the most money while being on LTIR anyway; so it is in his self interest to go to LTIR, and then retire, and then work for the Leafs as some kind of goalie development personnel or something.

If he goes on LTIR we don't have to trade anybody; assuming Samsonov's contract isn't ridiculous

Mouser said basically what i was going to bring up.. it is so f***y how it has to be run

One wrinkle I was trying to sort out is exactly how much cap space do the Leafs have right now to sign Samsonov without moving out a contract beforehand.

Per reports Muzzin was placed on off-season LTIR to make room to sign Domi. At the moment that happened Toronto would have exactly $5.625m in free cap space (LTIR relief). Any additional space they had under the offseason cap is lost when LTIR is invoked.

Toronto then announced the signings of Domi $3m and Gambrell $775k. That would leave Toronto with $1.85m in remaining LTIR relief. There would also still be a $1.8m cap hit on the books for the Samsonov QO. Meaning the maximum contract Toronto could sign Samsonov to without making a prior move is $3.65m ($1.85M + $1.8m).

If Toronto actually signed Gambrell before Domi and the Muzzin LTIR then the remaining LTIR relief space would be increased by $775k, leaving the Leafs with $4.425m to sign Samsonov without a prior move. That would have been the optimal approach, though the media/press release order of actions is listed as 1) LTIR Muzzin, 2) sign Domi, 3) sign Gambrell.

 

[PromisedLand]

How much $ or cap space a team has is inadmissible for salary arbitration.

fair but this could be grounds to negotiate a contract with player's agent before it goes to arbitration. if money is all that matters then the player will obviously choose any franchise who offers him more money anyway

 

[Mess]

IMO, there's no reason to believe Murray is currently injured. He was cleared by the team doctors to play on May 9th. Unless he failed his exit physical he's fair game for a buyout.

Players can always file a grievance, but I wouldn't put much confidence in him winning.

I agree fully as I've made a similar point myself that he was cleared by team Docs to dress for the playoffs. Had he not been cleared then Murray would have a much stronger case preventing a buyout.

Any ploy now by Murray claiming he isn't healthy would simply be that to try and keep his full $8 mil earnings for this season instead of 2/3rds with a buyout.. However this buyout window is small and if he tries to escape it without a buyout claiming health, I agree Leafs would ignore that, still buy him out (if that is what they chose to do) and deal with the NHLPA fallout thereafter if he can prove that he isn't healthy and not able to be bought out.

The cloudy issue might be "concussion related issues" where a player could feel fine one day and then have a relapse, unlike a broken bone where any x-ray can prove or disprove that very easily. The mention of the non-buyout today possibility by Friedman seems to imply Murray might be playing hardball with Leafs attempting to block a buyout.

That being cleared previously also works against the Leafs, where season long LTIR is not a possibility with a player currently ruled healthy, to make his full amount magically disappear for the season, which is a better option than a buyout with dead cap space issues, but also not a likely one at present.

 

[PromisedLand]

I agree fully as I've made a similar point myself that he was cleared by team Docs to dress for the playoffs. Had he not been cleared then Murray would have a much stronger case preventing a buyout.

Any ploy now by Murray claiming he isn't healthy would simply be that to try and keep his full $8 mil earnings for this season instead of 2/3rds with a buyout.. However this buyout window is small and if he tries to escape it without a buyout claiming health, I agree Leafs would ignore that, still buy him out (if that is what they chose to do) and deal with the NHLPA fallout thereafter if he can prove that he isn't healthy and not able to be bought out.

The cloudy issue might be "concussion related issues" where a player could feel fine one day and then have a relapse, unlike a broken bone where any x-ray can prove or disprove that very easily. The mention of the non-buyout today possibility by Friedman seems to imply Murray might be playing hardball with Leafs attempting to block a buyout.

That being cleared also works against the Leafs also where season long LTIR is not a possibility with a player currently ruled healthy, and make his full amount magically disappear to the season.

Lou made Lupul disappear and created a Robidas Island

Dubas messed everything up

What can Tre do now?

 

[MK78]

Lou made Lupul disappear and created a Robidas Island

Dubas messed everything up

What can Tre do now?

Should call Lou and ask if there are any vacancies? LOL.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Should call Lou and ask if there are any vacancies? LOL.

Unfortunately Lou's too busy once again handing out multiple crippling contracts on the Island to answer.

 

[LeafSteel]

If you make him play at least 3 games as a conditioning stint in the AHL, it’s probably close to 100% chance of re-injury in those 3 games. The process of him showing he’s healthy enough to play is a risk to his health at this point.

​

It would help if Gruden coaches the Marlies Defence to defend like this in front of Murray..........

 

[Dog]

The most would pay him is 3.5 but be looking for 2.8 for 2 years.

 

[Deebo]

One wrinkle I was trying to sort out is exactly how much cap space do the Leafs have right now to sign Samsonov without moving out a contract beforehand.

Per reports Muzzin was placed on off-season LTIR to make room to sign Domi. At the moment that happened Toronto would have exactly $5.625m in free cap space (LTIR relief). Any additional space they had under the offseason cap is lost when LTIR is invoked.

Toronto then announced the signings of Domi $3m and Gambrell $775k. That would leave Toronto with $1.85m in remaining LTIR relief. There would also still be a $1.8m cap hit on the books for the Samsonov QO. Meaning the maximum contract Toronto could sign Samsonov to without making a prior move is $3.65m ($1.85M + $1.8m).

If Toronto actually signed Gambrell before Domi and the Muzzin LTIR then the remaining LTIR relief space would be increased by $775k, leaving the Leafs with $4.425m to sign Samsonov without a prior move. That would have been the optimal approach, though the media/press release order of actions is listed as 1) LTIR Muzzin, 2) sign Domi, 3) sign Gambrell.

The way people talk about Pridham being a cap genius, one would assume that they took optimal approach.

Or at least hope they did.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Lou made Lupul disappear

Lupul's body made Lupul disappear.

 

[Menzinger]

Not much interest in anything more than a 1 year deal. Maybe 2. Let's see him actually play at least 50+ games in a season before we start throwing low end starter money at the guy. 3-3.2ish seems like the sweet spot on a one year deal

Sammy's stats for reference.

View attachment 729886

He was 4th OA in shutouts, 5th in GA/G, 6th in SV% and 11th in Wins last year.

View attachment 729887

How about those playoff stats? They also can count in arbitration hearings

 

[Menzinger]

Wasn't he supposedly available for the playoffs?

The team didn't have him on LTIR. But they also didn't seem to consider playing him even with Samsonov down. So as to his actual health, it's an unknown

 

[mouser]

How about those playoff stats? They also can count in arbitration hearings

Yup. Among the 22 goaltenders with 4+ playoff games Samsonov was 13th in Sv% and 14th in GAA. So slightly below average.

 

[Mess]

Not much interest in anything more than a 1 year deal. Maybe 2. Let's see him actually play at least 50+ games in a season before we start throwing low end starter money at the guy. 3-3.2ish seems like the sweet spot on a one year deal



How about those playoff stats? They also can count in arbitration hearings

Yup playoff stats disappointing and Leafs lucky to win a round with that sv%.

His overall career playoff stats also a concern,

 

[egd27]

If you want to draw equivalency between that and one year of Tyler Bertuzzi where he might get hurt after the trade deadline? Feel free to down to Treliving's office and give him a piece of your mind.

Not sure there are many pieces to give.

 

[mouser]

Yup playoff stats disappointing and Leafs lucky to win a round with that sv%.

His overall career playoff stats also a concern,

Arbitration awards are likely to weigh regular season stats heavier than playoff stats. Simply a matter of sample size.

 

[andora]

Not much interest in anything more than a 1 year deal. Maybe 2. Let's see him actually play at least 50+ games in a season before we start throwing low end starter money at the guy. 3-3.2ish seems like the sweet spot on a one year deal



How about those playoff stats? They also can count in arbitration hearings

Wait playoff stats? That doesnt seem right..

Arbitration awards are likely to weigh regular season stats heavier than playoff stats. Simply a matter of sample size.

Thats better

 

[Mess]

Arbitration awards are likely to weigh regular season stats heavier than playoff stats. Simply a matter of sample size.

Sammy leading the Leafs to their 1st playoff series win in 19 years likely helps his own case a little in extensions talks.

 

[hockeywiz542]

According to Nick Kypreos, Ilya Samsonov would have liked a four-year deal in the $4-million to $5-million range but Toronto seemed unwilling to go there at this point. The likelihood is they’ll still settle on a short-term deal before an arbitration verdict.

Nick Kypreos: How Auston Matthews’ next contract can break Leafs’ salary cap debacle

It’s believed William Nylander will take a page out of Mitch Marner’s playbook and stand pat on extension until he sees what Matthews gets from Leafs.

www.thestar.com

Doesn’t sound like the Leafs and Ilya Samsonov came close to signing a new long-term deal before the goaltender filed for salary arbitration Wednesday. Samsonov would have liked a four-year deal in the $4-million to $5-million range but Toronto seemed unwilling to go there at this point. The likelihood is they’ll still settle on a short-term deal before an arbitration verdict …

 

[AcerComputer]

Lou made Lupul disappear and created a Robidas Island

Dubas messed everything up

What can Tre do now?

Explain?

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Explain?

Probably means trading for Murray in the first place.

 

[AcerComputer]

Probably means trading for Murray in the first place.

So do we only count our losses and not our wins? We got Sammy who cost us nothing. Compared to the previous goalies we gave up high draft picks for. With Murray we got a 3rd + a 7th. So we got free assets to attach to a trade to unload Murray or keep those free assets and buy him out. The buyout is not even a big deal. Cap all fits this year, and only $2m hit next year. We have a lot of cap coming off the books next year even after re-signing Matthews and Nylander. They both just sign shorter deals to lower the cap hit to make it fit around the cap space they do have. Leafs are hamstrung for the next 2 years anyways waiting for the Tavares contract to expire along with the cap going up to $92M+, when they can start to fill out their roster.