Confirmed with Link: G Ilya Samsonov heads to arbitration (Awarded 1 year, $3.55M)

[Fogelhund]

None of this works with Matt Murrary....
With Samsonov at $4.1M we'd have about $56,050 in cap space with the lineup below....so it's doable. Like you said though, it leaves the roster thin for moving parts, but shouldn't be an issue with the Marlies just down the road.

The problem being, we wouldn't be able to do a regular call up from the Marlies... no cap room to do so. Emergency call up rule.. .not sure how that works to be honest, or LTIR...

I think Murray goes on LTIR. Elliotte Friedman's report talked about the possibility yesterday, citing his ankle and concussion. When you hear whispers like that it's usually paving the way for public consumption.

As I've maintained, LTIR is plausible because Murray is never healthy, it's not a stretch to say he would be an LTIR candidate. This route puts the most money in his pocket, and the Leafs emerge with all their cap space intact. It's mint. The only question mark is if Murray is insistent on resuming his career and won't comply.

It sounds that way, but we still have some issues depending on Samsonov's number.

 

[notbias]

Trading Timmins to fix yet another goaltending acquisition mistake seems really short sighted and bluntly, a really dumb idea.

it isn't ideal, it is just a better option than trading a player higher up in the lineup.

There is a chance he is a #7 on our team (would prefer Gio as that) and that is an expensive #7.

We gambled on two goalies last year, this isn't the worst problem to have, we could have gone 0/2 or even worse, resigned Campbell.

 

[Stephen]

Which makes the trade that Dubas made ever that much more questionable in hindsight.

It was a horrible and reckless trade from the jump. A brutal parlay bet on health and performance and maximum cap risk not even getting the 25% extra retention from a very motivated seller. Also keep in mind Murray had some no trade options in there too, blocking a deal to Buffalo. So Dubas had Ottawa cornered, had Toronto positioned as one of the few teams that could take on this toxic asset, and then gave them a sweetheart deal with nothing of value coming back as a sweetener. I'd re-hire Dubas in the future just for the pleasure of firing him again.

 

[notbias]

It was a horrible and reckless trade from the jump. A brutal parlay bet on health and performance and maximum cap risk not even getting the 25% extra retention from a very motivated seller.

Same feeling about Bertuzzi? Almost never healthy.

Dumb signing, right?

 

[MK78]

I think Murray goes on LTIR. Elliotte Friedman's report talked about the possibility yesterday, citing his ankle and concussion. When you hear whispers like that it's usually paving the way for public consumption.

Wasn't he supposedly available for the playoffs?

 

[ULF_55]

So now we see what the new GM is made of.

 

[The Iceman]

It was a horrible and reckless trade from the jump. A brutal parlay bet on health and performance and maximum cap risk not even getting the 25% extra retention from a very motivated seller. Also keep in mind Murray had some no trade options in there too, blocking a deal to Buffalo. So Dubas had Ottawa cornered, had Toronto positioned as one of the few teams that could take on this toxic asset, and then gave them a sweetheart deal with nothing of value coming back as a sweetener. I'd re-hire Dubas in the future just for the pleasure of firing him again.

I think our EX was more interested in the draft pick than reducing the cap hit# unfortunately.

 

[Stephen]

Same feeling about Bertuzzi? Almost never healthy.

Dumb signing, right?

Good thing it's only for one year... unlike Murray.

 

[Stephen]

I think our EX was more interested in the draft pick than reducing the cap hit# unfortunately.

Seemed like he was more interested in helping out Ottawa.

 

[andora]

This is too funny

What if we trade muzzins contract and buyout murray

 

[ACC1224]

It was a horrible and reckless trade from the jump. A brutal parlay bet on health and performance and maximum cap risk not even getting the 25% extra retention from a very motivated seller. Also keep in mind Murray had some no trade options in there too, blocking a deal to Buffalo. So Dubas had Ottawa cornered, had Toronto positioned as one of the few teams that could take on this toxic asset, and then gave them a sweetheart deal with nothing of value coming back as a sweetener. I'd re-hire Dubas in the future just for the pleasure of firing him again.

Even those with the biggest Dubas blinders on couldn't defend the move. Everything about it was brutal from day 1.

 

[notbias]

Good thing it's only for one year... unlike Murray.

So if we have 5 million in dead cap for the playoffs because someone with injuries virtually every year gets injured again, it is fine to waste this year because it is only one year? Crazy logic.

 

[Stephen]

So if we have 5 million in dead cap for the playoffs because someone with injuries virtually every year gets injured again, it is fine to waste this year because it is only one year? Crazy logic.

If Bertuzzi gets hurt it'll open up LTIR options throughout the year allowing Toronto to probably make a rental.

If you're trying to draw equivalency between the utter brain dead stupidity of the Matt Murray trade at a position where you only carry 2 players and a UFA signing at forward, that's up to you.

 

[notbias]

If Bertuzzi gets hurt it'll open up LTIR options throughout the year allowing Toronto to probably make a rental.

If you're trying to draw equivalency between the utter brain dead stupidity of the Matt Murray trade at a position where you only carry 2 players and a UFA signing at forward, that's up to you.

And if it happens after the TDL? I know this involves some critical thinking, but there are scenarios where we can't use the LTIR for a rental.

I am laughing at people saying some risk is fine, but not all. The play was take on two goalies with question marks, one of them worked the other didn't.

What if Klingberg is trash like the last few seasons? 4.15 in cap tied up in a Shattenkirk type. The Murray signing could have been eaten if we really wanted to without this and the Reaves signing.

 

[PromisedLand]

Even those with the biggest Dubas blinders on couldn't defend the move. Everything about it was brutal from day 1.

you underestimate the power of the darkside young padawan

 

[Stephen]

And if it happens after the TDL? I know this involves some critical thinking, but there are scenarios where we can't use the LTIR for a rental.

I am laughing at people saying some risk is fine, but not all. The play was take on two goalies with question marks, one of them worked the other didn't.

What if Klingberg is trash like the last few seasons? 4.15 in cap tied up in a Shattenkirk type.

Matt Murray was/is one of the most toxic assets at the goalie position, where no team has redundancy. Matt Murray hasn't been a relevant NHL player since maybe 2019. It played out exactly as disastrously as most people predicted so you can't even use hindsight as some excuse. Everyone saw this train wreck happening slowly.

If you want to draw equivalency between that and one year of Tyler Bertuzzi where he might get hurt after the trade deadline? Feel free to down to Treliving's office and give him a piece of your mind.

 

[LeafChief]

My guess is it comes in between 3-3.5 of a 3 year deal. I don't think it makes it to arb.

 

[PromisedLand]

This is too funny

What if we trade muzzins contract and buyout murray

forward line up for us (or atleast how I'd like to see it)

Bertuzzi-Matthews-Nylander
Knies-Domi-Marner
Robertson-Tavares-Jankrok
Reaves-Kampf-Lafferty
Holmberg

My trade target would be Jankrok/Brodie. And of course Nylander if a great deal shows up or Willy ain't willing to sign a reasonable cap hit.

Murray buyout or trading Murray with sweetners attached is not a good idea. Dubas has traded so many picks; we need some for the future

Murray makes the most money while being on LTIR anyway; so it is in his self interest to go to LTIR, and then retire, and then work for the Leafs as some kind of goalie development personnel or something.

If he goes on LTIR we don't have to trade anybody; assuming Samsonov's contract isn't ridiculous

 

[Martin Skoula]

I think Murray goes on LTIR. Elliotte Friedman's report talked about the possibility yesterday, citing his ankle and concussion. When you hear whispers like that it's usually paving the way for public consumption.

As I've maintained, LTIR is plausible because Murray is never healthy, it's not a stretch to say he would be an LTIR candidate. This route puts the most money in his pocket, and the Leafs emerge with all their cap space intact. It's mint. The only question mark is if Murray is insistent on resuming his career and won't comply.

If you make him play at least 3 games as a conditioning stint in the AHL, it’s probably close to 100% chance of re-injury in those 3 games. The process of him showing he’s healthy enough to play is a risk to his health at this point.

 

[ToneDog]

Which makes the trade that Dubas made ever that much more questionable in hindsight.

Not really. Everybody and his grandmother knew what Murray was. I heard Dubas was told by his staff members to stay away and he still went ahead and made it and without enough of a sweetener to boot.

Gotta hope he goes on LTIR before cap compliancy day.

 

[mouser]

One wrinkle I was trying to sort out is exactly how much cap space do the Leafs have right now to sign Samsonov without moving out a contract beforehand.

Per reports Muzzin was placed on off-season LTIR to make room to sign Domi. At the moment that happened Toronto would have exactly $5.625m in free cap space (LTIR relief). Any additional space they had under the offseason cap is lost when LTIR is invoked.

Toronto then announced the signings of Domi $3m and Gambrell $775k. That would leave Toronto with $1.85m in remaining LTIR relief. There would also still be a $1.8m cap hit on the books for the Samsonov QO. Meaning the maximum contract Toronto could sign Samsonov to without making a prior move is $3.65m ($1.85M + $1.8m).

If Toronto actually signed Gambrell before Domi and the Muzzin LTIR then the remaining LTIR relief space would be increased by $775k, leaving the Leafs with $4.425m to sign Samsonov without a prior move. That would have been the optimal approach, though the media/press release order of actions is listed as 1) LTIR Muzzin, 2) sign Domi, 3) sign Gambrell.

 

[Stephen]

If you make him play at least 3 games as a conditioning stint in the AHL, it’s probably close to 100% chance of re-injury in those 3 games. The process of him showing he’s healthy enough to play is a risk to his health at this point.

Good point. Also seems mental with him where he'll be derailed for weeks and weeks with what seem like minor setbacks. Wasn't it the warmup in Game 3 when he just broke down and we didn't see him till mid November?

 

[Mess]

I think Murray goes on LTIR. Elliotte Friedman's report talked about the possibility yesterday, citing his ankle and concussion. When you hear whispers like that it's usually paving the way for public consumption.

As I've maintained, LTIR is plausible because Murray is never healthy, it's not a stretch to say he would be an LTIR candidate. This route puts the most money in his pocket, and the Leafs emerge with all their cap space intact. It's mint. The only question mark is if Murray is insistent on resuming his career and won't comply.

Friedman brings up a good point in the CBA and that is "You Can Not Buy Out and Injured player".. This could cause quite a problem for the Leafs in regards to Sammy's case and its outcome..

A short 2nd buyout window occurs shortly after the Arb case time period ends.. The original thought being Leafs use this to buyout Murray, use the free cap space to cover Samsonov's new deal.. However if Murray can with medical evidence prove he is not healthy currently that could block a buyout process.. That would leave the Leafs currently +$3.2 mil over the cap with both Sammy now signed via Arb ruling or team agreement and also still have Murray at $4.687 mil also on the books.

Now the assumption has been if you don't buy Murray out simply place him on LTIR and problem solved. However the problem here doesn't mean just because Murray is ruled unhealthy and therefore can't be bought out presently, that also doesn't mean months from now at training camp that he couldn't be ruled healthy and it certainly doesn't suggest Murray can be placed legally on LTIR for the entire season either. Point being Leafs might not be able to magically and legally make Murray contract disappear and thus leaving the Leafs with BOTH Sammy and Murray's contracts on the books and part of the cap ceiling calculation. Big Problem there !!!

The only out then is a trade with a sweetener if some/any team agrees and at what cost?

 

[notbias]

Matt Murray was/is one of the most toxic assets at the goalie position, where no team has redundancy. Matt Murray hasn't been a relevant NHL player since maybe 2019. It played out exactly as disastrously as most people predicted so you can't even use hindsight as some excuse. Everyone saw this train wreck happening slowly.

If you want to draw equivalency between that and one year of Tyler Bertuzzi where he might get hurt after the trade deadline? Feel free to down to Treliving's office and give him a piece of your mind.

Bobrovsky is probably the worst goalie contract by a mile, two playoff rounds does not change that.

I am not arguing it was a good trade, I am sure the thought was if he is healthy he is good, and if he is not he is on the LTIR, currently we have the worst case.

Not sure what the last paragraph is about, that signing and this trade have upside and risk involved, this one blew up, and that one could too, that is all I am saying.

 

[PromisedLand]

One wrinkle I was trying to sort out is exactly how much cap space do the Leafs have right now to sign Samsonov without moving out a contract beforehand.

Per reports Muzzin was placed on off-season LTIR to make room to sign Domi. At the moment that happened Toronto would have exactly $5.625m in free cap space (LTIR relief). Any additional space they had under the offseason cap is lost when LTIR is invoked.

Toronto then announced the signings of Domi $3m and Gambrell $775k. That would leave Toronto with $1.85m in remaining LTIR relief. There would also still be a $1.8m cap hit on the books for the Samsonov QO. Meaning the maximum contract Toronto could sign Samsonov to without making a prior move is $3.65m ($1.85M + $1.8m).

If Toronto actually signed Gambrell before Domi and the Muzzin LTIR then the remaining LTIR relief space would be increased by $775k, leaving the Leafs with $4.425m to sign Samsonov without a prior move. That would have been the optimal approach, though the media/press release order of actions is listed as 1) LTIR Muzzin, 2) sign Domi, 3) sign Gambrell.

may be a tactic to save the additional 775K to be used elsewhere if/when needed instead of giving it to samsonov? basically claim in arbitration that they don't have room for 4.425M per year contract

if it was me that's how i'd approach it