weird, based on GSAx and just about every stat you've used recently to show us Samsanov is going to ask for 5+ million, Samsanov > Hart... why would you want to trade the better goalie + picks/prospects?
Confirmed with Link: G Ilya Samsonov heads to arbitration (Awarded 1 year, $3.55M)
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weird, based on GSAx and just about every stat you've used recently to show us Samsanov is going to ask for 5+ million, Samsanov > Hart... why would you want to trade the better goalie + picks/prospects?
I don't think a player elected arbitration decision is bound by any dollar amounts, purely the discretion of the arbitrator based on evidence given. Nothing I see. Some caveats on club elected first window arbitration awards.
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Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
The only binding elements is the contract can be no less than 85% of the previous season and the team has the option to walk away from the player is awarded around 4.5-4.6 mil (I can't quite remember the exact amount).
Neither of those should be a concern for Samsonov.
I also suspect he'll have a contract completed before the arbitration meeting regardless
Mess
Global Moderator
The Samsonov ask is not my speculation its what is being reported. Like this for example
Sports Illustrated's David Alter appeared on TSN 1050's Game Play on Monday to discuss the Leafs/Samsonov situtation. Alter mentioned a few comparables that the Leafs and Samsonov could look at to help them on their quest to lock up the RFA goaltender. Alter revealed three goaltenders who signed new deals coming out of restricted free agency whom he feels that the Samsonov camp could use as examples. Those 3 goalies are Jake Oettinger ($4M AAV), Juuse Saros ($5M AAV) and, on the low end, Alexandar Georgiev ($3.6M AAV).
As far as what Samsonov's AAV on his new deal will be, that's certainly up for debate, but a number below $4M is likely what the Leafs are looking for, with Samsonov likely pushing for slightly above $4M. We'll see how this all plays out over the next week or so here.
mouser
Business of Hockey
The NHL does not have “winner take all“ arbitration like MLB does.
The NHL arbitrator can pick any number, including one outside the range of the player and team salary requests.
mouser
Business of Hockey
Spencer Knight ($4.5m) is another interesting one. Yes he has a higher pedigree and is younger than Samsonov, but pedigree isn’t an admissible category in salary arbitration.
Also worth noting they can use player RFA comparables even if the player is no longer playing under the comparable contract.
Mess
Global Moderator
His name also likely to come up in Arb comparison talks should it get that far.
Sammy asking for a # in the $4 mil range based on RFA comparables does not seem unrealistic.. His personal #'s in key goaltending categories were quite strong.
mouser
Business of Hockey
It’s a small sample size, but historically arbitrators appear to issue higher awards when a player is one year away from UFA.
What would the floor be on Samsonov? Searching through the current list of RFA goaltenders some names that pop up:
- Georgiev $3.4m, had a longer history of solid production, but Samsonov with significantly better performance in the contract year.
- Vanacek $3.4m
- Kahkonen $2.75m
- Skinner $2.6m, but keep in mind he got this deal based on his 2021-22 production, not 2022-23.
Without doing a thorough research my first instinct is the arbitration award floor may be somewhere around $3.2m. With the potential to maybe top out around $4m? It’s difficult to guess how much Samsonov’s exemplary 2022-23 GAA and SV% might be offset by the GP sample size, both for his entire career and 2022-23
What would the floor be on Samsonov? Searching through the current list of RFA goaltenders some names that pop up:
- Georgiev $3.4m, had a longer history of solid production, but Samsonov with significantly better performance in the contract year.
- Vanacek $3.4m
- Kahkonen $2.75m
- Skinner $2.6m, but keep in mind he got this deal based on his 2021-22 production, not 2022-23.
Without doing a thorough research my first instinct is the arbitration award floor may be somewhere around $3.2m. With the potential to maybe top out around $4m? It’s difficult to guess how much Samsonov’s exemplary 2022-23 GAA and SV% might be offset by the GP sample size, both for his entire career and 2022-23
$4.53-something this year for walking from decision, I looked it up earlier in the thread and others have posted it too, ya.
85% minimum to my eyes is only a stipulation on club elected arbitration in first window. 100% minimum on club elected 2nd window award looks like. But no constraints at all on player elected.
And yes all academic, expect a negotiated contract prior to arbitration too.
Mess
Global Moderator
I'd be surprised if this case made it through the Arb process as it almost seems Leafs wanted Sammy to file so they get an 2nd buyout window if needed for Murray, as opposed to both sides being far apart on player evaluation.
However it would be somewhat difficult depending on how much faith and trust the Leafs have in Sammy to buy 1 RFA year and then several UFA years perhaps what that $ might be, on a new extension with some term. Pure guess but $3.5 mil value on RFA year and $4.5 mil UFA 1 year and $4.75 mil UFA 2 year, so a 3 year deal at $12.75 mil = $4.25 mil AAV.
Based on projected cap increases of +$4 mil 2024-25 & +$4.5 mil in 2025-26 ( = $92 mil Cap Ceiling).
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mouser
Business of Hockey
I don’t expect it to go to arbitration either. Still useful to estimate what an arbitration ruling could look like because you rarely see players sign for significantly less to avoid arbitration.
Mess
Global Moderator
Friedman also reported that he believes that the Maple Leafs don’t want to go beyond a three-year extension with restricted free-agent goaltender Ilya Samsonov. The Maple Leafs and Samsonov are expected to go to arbitration on July 21, meaning that arbitration numbers will be exchanged tomorrow morning. The 26-year-old netminder was terrific in his first season with Toronto posting a .919 save percentage to go along with a 2.33 goals-against average and a 27-10-5 record. The Maple Leafs are currently over the salary cap meaning that they will need to shuffle around money to fit in Samsonov’s new deal when it is completed.
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Mess
Global Moderator
Nope not in Hockey, Arbitrator can pick any # from floor to ceiling.
Interesting side note though If Sammy gets his ask, at that level the Leafs can walk away and make him a UFA.
Arbitration Ruling: Player elected Arbitration Settlements of 1 year and greater than $4,538,958 in 2023, Club can walk away from the awarded salary, making the player a UFA
Matt Murray makes $4.687 mil, so you can see why Sammy's ask is above that.
TheBeastCoast
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tmlfan98
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SprDaVE
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2x3M or 3x3.25 would be my ceiling I think. Sounds like the Leafs really want him around that price as well.
Mess
Global Moderator
TheBeastCoast
Registered User
So I take it you have admitted you were wrong on all your takes on how bad our goaltending was last season right?
janesy12
Leafs Nation
Even meeting in the middle at $3.65M, the Leafs will be $6.85M over the cap.
If they manage to lose Murray's full cap hit, they're still at $2.1M over.
Likely would have to lose Timmons, and go with a 20 man roster to fit.
With those moves, and running a 20 man roster they'll be under the cap by $80,000 with a lineup of:
Bertuzzi Matthews Marner
Domi Tavares Nylander
Knies Kampf Janrkrok
Robertson Gambrell Reaves
Rielly Brodie
McCabe Klingberg
Giodano Liljegren
Samsonov
Woll
Or, If Domi is 3C, they can go with this lineup and have $500,000 in cap space.
Bertuzzi Matthews Marner
Knies Tavares Nylander
Robertson Domi Jarnkrok
Lafferty Kampf Reaves
Rielly Brodie
McCabe Klingberg
Giodano Liljegren
Samsonov
Woll
If they manage to lose Murray's full cap hit, they're still at $2.1M over.
Likely would have to lose Timmons, and go with a 20 man roster to fit.
With those moves, and running a 20 man roster they'll be under the cap by $80,000 with a lineup of:
Bertuzzi Matthews Marner
Domi Tavares Nylander
Knies Kampf Janrkrok
Robertson Gambrell Reaves
Rielly Brodie
McCabe Klingberg
Giodano Liljegren
Samsonov
Woll
Or, If Domi is 3C, they can go with this lineup and have $500,000 in cap space.
Bertuzzi Matthews Marner
Knies Tavares Nylander
Robertson Domi Jarnkrok
Lafferty Kampf Reaves
Rielly Brodie
McCabe Klingberg
Giodano Liljegren
Samsonov
Woll
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