Confirmed with Link: G Ilya Samsonov heads to arbitration (Awarded 1 year, $3.55M)

[Mess]

So I take it you have admitted you were wrong on all your takes on how bad our goaltending was last season right?

Leafs goaltending last 7 years Team Average and League Rank. Goaltending the past 5 years weaker in comparison to previous GM.

Looks like I was right afterall, that the GM change resulted in team goaltending struggling and gotten weaker.

Leafs went from a Top 5 team .917 sv% tied for 4th in 2017-18, to below league average in 4 of the 5 last seasons. .

Lou Lam's drafted boy Joseph Woll saved the team SV% average last year posting an impressive .932 sv% helping offset the disaster of Murray and Kallgren bringing up team average.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Leafs goaltending last 7 years Team Average and League Rank. Goaltending the past 5 years weaker in comparison to previous GM.

View attachment 729896

Looks like I was right after all, that the GM change resulted in team goaltending struggling and gotten weaker, with below average in 4 of the 5 seasons.

Leafs went from a team .917 sv% tied for 4th in 2017-18.

Do you have back issues moving goal posts as much as you do? I know a good Chiro.

 

[Peasy]

Leafs goaltending last 7 years Team Average and League Rank. Goaltending the past 5 years weaker in comparison to previous GM.

View attachment 729896

Looks like I was right after all, that the GM change resulted in team goaltending struggling and gotten weaker, with below average in 4 of the 5 seasons.

Leafs went from a team .917 sv% tied for 4th in 2017-18.

Lou Lam's drafted boy Joseph Woll saved the team SV% average last year. .

View attachment 729897

Yeah, a 7 game sample size out of 82 completely inflated the teams sv% for the entire year

 

[Mess]

Arbitration Breakdown: Ilya Samsonov​

July 19, 2023 at 9:03 am CDT |

While many players who elected salary arbitration have already settled with their teams, several players are still headed toward hearings, which start tomorrow with the Chicago Blackhawks and forward Philipp Kurashev. Slated for Friday, though, is one of the more intriguing cases still unresolved: Toronto Maple Leafs netminder Ilya Samsonov.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported last night that the two sides are still actively working on a short-term deal, which could get done over the next 48 hours and avoid going to arbitration. Arbitration is usually something teams look to avoid, given they’ll have to agree to any deal awarded under the $4.5MM mark per season. But in Toronto’s case, it’s a good thing – the team is already over the salary cap even with defenseman Jake Muzzin stashed on long-term injured reserve, meaning certainty around Samsonov’s cap hit next season is crucial for them to know exactly how much space to clear in follow-up moves. They’ll have financial assurance with Samsonov one way or another within the next four days.

Filings​

Team: $2.4MM
Player: $4.9MM
Midpoint: $3.65MM

 

[BallardEra]

He will probably end up getting closer to his ask than the Leafs ask if it does go to arbitration.

 

[trellaine201]

Goalies are fickle.

 

[Mess]

He will probably end up getting closer to his ask than the Leafs ask if it does go to arbitration.

Potential Comparables​

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of this negotiation.

Vitek Vanecek (Devils) – If you’re looking for the framework of a potential deal, look no further than Samsonov’s former tandem partner in Washington. After two average seasons as a tandem netminder in D.C., Vanecek’s RFA rights were traded to New Jersey last offseason before he signed a three-year, $3.4MM AAV contract with the club. Coming off seasons of 37 and 42 games played and .908 save percentages in both seasons, Vanecek might have had consistency on his side more so than Samsonov, but he hadn’t reached the level Samsonov has at times throughout his young career. The latter is a bit of a unicorn in recent RFA goalie signings, and it makes sense why he’d want more than his ex-teammate, but Vanecek’s deal falls near the midpoint of the two filings.

Alexandar Georgiev (Avalanche) – Just a few days before Vanecek signed a deal with his new team in 2022, Georgiev signed the same contract with the Colorado Avalanche. Georgiev had more experience and was perhaps a more highly-touted solution as a starter than Vanecek, but he was coming off a rough year with the New York Rangers that saw his save percentage dip below the .900 mark. Samsonov’s performance last season was much better than either Vanecek’s or Georgiev’s before they signed their deals, though, something he’ll likely leverage in his hearing to make his case for an AAV in the $3.5-$4.5MM range.

 

[notbias]

Leafs goaltending last 7 years Team Average and League Rank. Goaltending the past 5 years weaker in comparison to previous GM.

View attachment 729896

Looks like I was right afterall, that the GM change resulted in team goaltending struggling and gotten weaker.

Leafs went from a Top 5 team .917 sv% tied for 4th in 2017-18, to below below average in 4 of the 5 seasons. .

Lou Lam's drafted boy Joseph Woll saved the team SV% average last year posting an impressive .932 sv% helping offset the disaster of Murray and Kallgren bringing up team average.

View attachment 729897

Goaltending got worse but the team got better.

Maybe the system changed in that time?

Why do you always bring up Lou like he did something?

Did GAA go up or down in that time? Also, what happened to scoring in the NHL in the last few years?

 

[Nineteen67]

Arbitration Breakdown: Ilya Samsonov​

July 19, 2023 at 9:03 am CDT |

While many players who elected salary arbitration have already settled with their teams, several players are still headed toward hearings, which start tomorrow with the Chicago Blackhawks and forward Philipp Kurashev. Slated for Friday, though, is one of the more intriguing cases still unresolved: Toronto Maple Leafs netminder Ilya Samsonov.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported last night that the two sides are still actively working on a short-term deal, which could get done over the next 48 hours and avoid going to arbitration. Arbitration is usually something teams look to avoid, given they’ll have to agree to any deal awarded under the $4.5MM mark per season. But in Toronto’s case, it’s a good thing – the team is already over the salary cap even with defenseman Jake Muzzin stashed on long-term injured reserve, meaning certainty around Samsonov’s cap hit next season is crucial for them to know exactly how much space to clear in follow-up moves. They’ll have financial assurance with Samsonov one way or another within the next four days.

Filings​

Team: $2.4MM
Player: $4.9MM
Midpoint: $3.65MM

He’s asking for 4.9? If I’m the Leafs I’d argue in his favour in hopes he gets it and then walk away from him.

 

[Mess]

2x3M or 3x3.25 would be my ceiling I think. Sounds like the Leafs really want him around that price as well.

Just FYI.

Arbitration awards come in at one or two years. In Samsonov’s case, the award would be one year because he’s one season away from becoming an unrestricted free agent.

Any deal in the 2 or more years would have to come from the team and Sammy agreeing to an extension outside of the arbitration process.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

2 years 7.5M is my guess

 

[Gallagbi]

Leafs goaltending last 7 years Team Average and League Rank. Goaltending the past 5 years weaker in comparison to previous GM.

View attachment 729896

Looks like I was right afterall, that the GM change resulted in team goaltending struggling and gotten weaker.

Leafs went from a Top 5 team .917 sv% tied for 4th in 2017-18, to below below average in 4 of the 5 seasons. .

Lou Lam's drafted boy Joseph Woll saved the team SV% average last year posting an impressive .932 sv% helping offset the disaster of Murray and Kallgren bringing up team average.

View attachment 729897

You want the over or the under on an 86 pt season this year?

 

[kb]

Gvien his playoff record and our cap, if he gets too much we are walking.

Only if over $4.538 million.

EDIT: Whoops, that's already been said.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Prob will come in somewhere halfway between that range and I would be happy with that. Sammy exceeded expectations and having him and Woll in net would make me comfortable with our tandem

 

[Mess]

He’s asking for 4.9? If I’m the Leafs I’d argue in his favour in hopes he gets it and then walk away from him.

This is the walk away number for 2023-24 .. Player elected Arbitration Settlements of 1 year and greater than $4,538,958, Club can walk away from the awarded salary, making the player a UFA.

Pure guess on may part, but $3.5 mil value assigned on his 1 X RFA year and $4.5 mil UFA 1 year and $4.75 mil UFA 2 year, so a 3 year deal at $12.75 mil total = $4.25 mil AAV settlement with the Leafs on an extensions is roughly what I'm expecting.

 

[Squiffy]

Fooling around on Capfriendly, it just doesn't quite fit with Sammy at $3.5 does it? At least not without exposing assets to waivers anyways. This is my best shot, that's a Murray trade for a sandwich, Sammy at $3.4 and exposing Lafferty and Gambrell to waivers. $6000 to spare. A Murray buyout instead of a trade and I really don't know. Have to drop the extra D-man I guess.

Or stay tuned because more to come, there's that.

CapFriendly.com Armchair-GM User-Generated Roster

FORWARDS (12)
Right Wing: Mitchell Marner ($10,903,000) - William Nylander ($6,962,366) - Ryan Reaves ($1,350,000) - Calle Järnkrok ($2,100,000)
Centre: Auston Matthews ($11,640,250) - John Tavares ($11,000,000) - David Kämpf ($2,400,000) - Pontus Holmberg ($800,000)
Left Wing: Tyler Bertuzzi ($5,500,000) - Max Domi ($3,000,000) - Matthew Knies ($925,000) - Nicholas Robertson ($796,667)

DEFENSE (7)
Right: TJ Brodie ($5,000,000) - John Klingberg ($4,150,000) - Timothy Liljegren ($1,400,000) - Conor Timmins ($1,100,000)
Left: Morgan Rielly ($7,500,000) - Jake McCabe ($2,000,000) - Mark Giordano ($800,000)

GOALTENDER (2)
Ilya Samsonov ($3,400,000) - Joseph Woll ($766,667)

DETAILS
Roster Size: 21
Salary Cap: $83,500,000
Cap Hit: $83,493,950
Cap Space: $6,050

 

[Fogelhund]

Gambrell was signed for the Marlies, so he's kind of irrelevant anyway, at least IMO.

If Samsonov gets over $3.5, we will have to trade someone off the roster to make this work. It's either going to be Brodie and/or Nylander in all probability.

This Murray acquisition has really come to bite us in the butt.

 

[notbias]

Gambrell was signed for the Marlies, so he's kind of irrelevant anyway, at least IMO.

If Samsonov gets over $3.5, we will have to trade someone off the roster to make this work. It's either going to be Brodie and/or Nylander in all probability.

This Murray acquisition has really come to bite us in the butt.

Or just trade Timmins...

I think we could go up to 4.1 with Timmins traded.

 

[Fogelhund]

Or just trade Timmins...

I think we could go up to 4.1 with Timmins traded.

That would work, though we'd have issues if any D man get injured, as we wouldn't have space to call anyone up, without LTIR. We could use some Emergency recalls, but not sure how that works exactly, and how long.

 

[Buds17]

Unsurprisingly, too low and too high. Somewhat interesting that Samsonov's ask is above the walk away amount though. I'd be fine with an amount hovering just below the midpoint of the respective asks.

 

[janesy12]

That would work, though we'd have issues if any D man get injured, as we wouldn't have space to call anyone up, without LTIR. We could use some Emergency recalls, but not sure how that works exactly, and how long.

Or just trade Timmins...

I think we could go up to 4.1 with Timmins traded.

None of this works with Matt Murrary....
With Samsonov at $4.1M we'd have about $56,050 in cap space with the lineup below....so it's doable. Like you said though, it leaves the roster thin for moving parts, but shouldn't be an issue with the Marlies just down the road.

The issue becomes Matt Murray and his $4.68M cap hit.

Bertuzzi Matthews Marner
Knies Tavares Nylander
Robertson Domi Jarnkrok
Lafferty Kampf Reaves

Rielly Brodies
McCabe Klingberg
Gio Lily

Samsonov ($4.1m)
Woll

 

[Stephen]

Gambrell was signed for the Marlies, so he's kind of irrelevant anyway, at least IMO.

If Samsonov gets over $3.5, we will have to trade someone off the roster to make this work. It's either going to be Brodie and/or Nylander in all probability.

This Murray acquisition has really come to bite us in the butt.

I think Murray goes on LTIR. Elliotte Friedman's report talked about the possibility yesterday, citing his ankle and concussion. When you hear whispers like that it's usually paving the way for public consumption.

As I've maintained, LTIR is plausible because Murray is never healthy, it's not a stretch to say he would be an LTIR candidate. This route puts the most money in his pocket, and the Leafs emerge with all their cap space intact. It's mint. The only question mark is if Murray is insistent on resuming his career and won't comply.

 

[Cor]

Anything with a 3 and I'm happy.

 

[ACC1224]

Trading Timmins to fix yet another goaltending acquisition mistake seems really short sighted and bluntly, a really dumb idea.

 

[janesy12]

I think Murray goes on LTIR. Elliotte Friedman's report talked about the possibility yesterday, citing his ankle and concussion. When you hear whispers like that it's usually paving the way for public consumption.

As I've maintained, LTIR is plausible because Murray is never healthy, it's not a stretch to say he would be an LTIR candidate. This route puts the most money in his pocket, and the Leafs emerge with all their cap space intact. It's mint. The only question mark is if Murray is insistent on resuming his career and won't comply.

Which makes the trade that Dubas made ever that much more questionable in hindsight.