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Confirmed with Link: G Ilya Samsonov heads to arbitration (Awarded 1 year, $3.55M)

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Mess said:
While that is true its not all wine and roses outcome.

A Murray buyout comes with a 2023-24 cap hit of $687,500, & 2024-25 cap hit and dead cap space of $ $2,000,000.

The problem here is that Matthews and Nylander's new contracts and raises (still unknown) kick in 2024-25 and while the Salary Cap is expected to increase by $4 mil that year, it would be offset in 1/2 by a Murray $2 mil dead space buyout.
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Yes but if they can't unload Murray, that's where this goes.
 
How much will the new most recent contracts of NYI RFA Ilya Sorokin & UFA Tristan Jarry play here?

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Sammy put up similar SV% and GA/G stats as NYI's RFA goalie re-signing and above UFA Jarry.

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Mess said:
While that is true its not all wine and roses outcome.

A Murray buyout comes with a 2023-24 cap hit of $687,500, & 2024-25 cap hit and dead cap space of $ $2,000,000.

The problem here is that Matthews and Nylander's new contracts and raises (still unknown) kick in 2024-25 and while the Salary Cap is expected to increase by $4 mil that year, it would be offset in 1/2 by a Murray $2 mil dead space buyout.
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It was such an unbelievably stupid, shocking and wrong decision to bring in Murray, that it is bordering on sabotage.
 
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Arb just gives them a second buyout window for Murray in case Tre cant find any takers.
 
Mess said:
While that is true its not all wine and roses outcome.

A Murray buyout comes with a 2023-24 cap hit of $687,500, & 2024-25 cap hit and dead cap space of $ $2,000,000.

The problem here is that Matthews and Nylander's new contracts and raises (still unknown) kick in 2024-25 and while the Salary Cap is expected to increase by $4 mil that year, it would be offset in 1/2 by a Murray $2 mil dead space buyout.
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There are two reasons that make this buyout option acceptable for the Leafs:

1) You see teams signing bonus-ladened contracts (brown, max pac) that shift 2 to 3 mil cap to the following year due to the expected rise in cap. Buying out murray essentially does the same thing

2) It seems like this coming year is the year the leafs go for the cup while next year is kind of like a retooling year with Tavares' contract still here (for 1 more year), Matthews and Nylander with new contracts, and the cap only risen for 1 year. There would be a lot more room to build the supporting cast in the following year when Tavares contract is gone and the cap expected to keep rising (say to 92 million).
 
Mess said:
Actually as per CBA rules (IIRC) now that Sammy has filed for Arbitration the Leafs can no longer deal him away.

- Leafs options are come to contract terms prior to the hearing and the award.
- Accept the Arbitration award and then make other roster changes to become Cup complaint.
- Walk away from the Arb reward if it is too high, making Sammy a UFA immediately, and Leafs go with Woll and Murray as their goalies next year.
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Threshold for team right to walk away this year is $4,538,958 or higher. Could be in play.
 
Buy out window for Murray is good, but what is the expected arbiters decision on Sammy’s salary? Guesses? Informed opinions?
 
Somewhere between 3-4 million, closer to 3? So few of these things actually go to an arbitration decision that its hard to draw on any data. Here's a couple scenarios that might guide a guess.

Ullmark (whose name is decidedly not Ullman) was arbitration eligible going in to 2020-21. Settled before hearing. Couple of good stat seasons leading in to it on a lousy Sabres team. 34gp, 2.69 gaa, 915 sv% the year going in to it. Pretty close to Sammy #'s. Took 2.6 on a one year deal.

Our very own Bertuzzi, actually had an arbitration decision. 1 year, 3.5 coming off 71gp, 21g, 27a, power forward intangibles presumably, on a lousy Detroit team in 2020. Tough to compare that to a goalie, but maybe kinda comparable?

Really, the move here for Sammy is to take the one year on a very good team as the presumed #1G, walk in to UFA and cash in. It should be worth a slightly cheaper price on this contract to him.
 
Phion Keneuf said:
A trade is definitely ideal, but if we have to give up a 1st, I’d much rather the 2M loss of cap. We need some draft capital.
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If we have to give up a first it’s probably better to buyout and use the cap savings on a rental for the playoffs
 
When was the last time the Leafs went to arbitration with a player?
 
Not excited about Samsonov whatsoever. He was total shit in the playoffs save for a couple of games. Absolutely bonkers if Leafs are going to commit to him. He should be a backup at best. I can’t believe Leafs are actually going to roll with him lol.
 
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Suntouchable13 said:
Not excited about Samsonov whatsoever. He was total shit in the playoffs save for a couple of games. Absolutely bonkers if Leafs are going to commit to him. He should be a backup at best. I can’t believe Leafs are actually going to roll with him lol.
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Right now he's their best option. Band-Aid
 
Squiffy said:
Somewhere between 3-4 million, closer to 3? So few of these things actually go to an arbitration decision that its hard to draw on any data. Here's a couple scenarios that might guide a guess.

Really, the move here for Sammy is to take the one year on a very good team as the presumed #1G, walk in to UFA and cash in. It should be worth a slightly cheaper price on this contract to him.
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Here is my thought process on this ...

If Sammy was going to take $3 mil on a 1 year deal wouldn't that be done by now as Leafs would certainly jump at that opportunity?

A player generally takes a team to Arbitration on the reason that himself and the team are far apart in evaluation, therefore letting a 3rd party decide what is fair based on comparables of other players at his position, He has a very strong Arbitration case with supporting stats.

What you're suggesting about the 1 year "Prove It" deal is what Samsonov did last year, after being released by Washington and it worked.

Samsonov gamble paid off because last season he finished 5th in GA/G & 6th in SV% & 11th in Wins, 5th in Shutouts, and 10th in GSA/x (Goals saved above expected).

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Seems like these arb eligible RFA goalies in the recent past have received 4-4.5% of the cap so $3.5 or so mil for 2 years seems fair, give or take a couple hundred thousand.
 
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