Confirmed with Link: G Ilya Samsonov heads to arbitration (Awarded 1 year, $3.55M)

[ACC1224]

Sammy's Numbers and comparables heading into Arbitration.

View attachment 726711

When was the last time the Leafs went to arbitration with a player?

 

[Mess]

When was the last time the Leafs went to arbitration with a player?

The last time I can recall was with Cody Franson in 2014.

Here is the official filing Docs. : https://www.law.utoronto.ca/utfl_fi...hacc_brief_submission-_problem_1-_team_18.pdf

Leafs however did settle before the judge ruled.

Maple Leafs agree to one-year deal with Cody Franson, avoid arbitration
July 15th, 2014

Maple Leafs defenceman Cody Franson has agreed to a one-year, $3.3 million deal with Toronto to avoid salary arbitration.

Franson originally asked for $4.2 million, while the Leafs countered with $2 million thru the Arbitration process. The one-year deal carries Franson to unrestricted free-agency next summer.

 

[PROUD PAPA]

I could honestly see Woll working his way into the top spot next season so keep the commitment to Sammy short. Buyout Murray if you can't unload him at a reasonable cost and squeeze the wallet for the 23/24 season.

 

[ACC1224]

The last time I can recall was with Cody Franson in 2014.

Here is the official filing Docs. : https://www.law.utoronto.ca/utfl_fi...hacc_brief_submission-_problem_1-_team_18.pdf

Leafs however did settle before the judge ruled.

Maple Leafs agree to one-year deal with Cody Franson, avoid arbitration
July 15th, 2014

Maple Leafs defenceman Cody Franson has agreed to a one-year, $3.3 million deal with Toronto to avoid salary arbitration.

Franson originally asked for $4.2 million, while the Leafs countered with $2 million thru the Arbitration process. The one-year deal carries Franson to unrestricted free-agency next summer.

Yeah sorry, meant when did they actually make it all the way to a hearing?
I doubt this gets there either.

 

[Mess]

Yeah sorry, meant when did they actually make it all the way to a hearing?
I doubt this gets there either.

What some might find interesting is that new Leaf Tyler Bertuzzi's had a previous contract awarded him via arbitration.

Tyler Bertuzzi, LW/RW, Red Wings

Age: 25 | 2019-20 stats: 21-27-48 | Last contract: 2 years, $1.4M AAV | Arbitration Status: Arbitrator awards Bertuzzi $3.5M

An arbitrator awarded Bertuzzi a $3.5-million contract on Oct. 27 after the two sides had a hearing on Oct. 25. Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman reported Bertuzzi asked for $4.25 million at the hearing and the Red Wings countered with $3.15 million.

Here is the Leafs arbitration hearing history past 15 years with 10 cases total, but none ended up with an Arbitration ruling & all settled prior to by Leafs .. Goalie Jonathan Bernier came the closest.

 

[Squiffy]

Yeah sorry, meant when did they actually make it all the way to a hearing?
I doubt this gets there either.

Jonathon Bernier 2015. Hearing happened but they settled before verdict issued. Besides that nothing going back as far as 2008, that's as far as Cap Friendly has and anything beyond that is too much work to look up..

 

[Mess]

Jonathon Bernier 2015. Hearing happened but they settled before verdict issued. Besides that nothing going back as far as 2008, that's as far as Cap Friendly has and anything beyond that is too much work to look up..

With the Salary Cap implemented in 2005 with the new CBA after the lockout, anything prior to that would essentially be meaningless since without a Salary Cap factoring into the decisons it would be irrelevant.

Without a Salary Cap Leafs would likely be comforatable giving Sammy a 5 year @ $5.5 mil deal without blinking and avoiding arbitration all together.

 

[Blaylock38]

Would he file for 5.5 and settle at 3.5-4?

 

[Mess]

The Leaf are unfortunately still being trolled by the incompetence of their previous GM. Where a 5 year @ $5.5 mil deal would look like reasonable ask for Samsonov.

When Sammy compares his #'s including winning a playoff round for the 1st time in 18 years they look really good compared to the entire NHL overall, with nearly top 10 all categories.

However when a GM awards a 5 year contract like this to goalie with these stats that come nowhere close to Sammy's you can see the problem it presents to the Leafs.

 

[Squiffy]

With the Salary Cap implemented in 2005 with the new CBA after the lockout, anything prior to that would essentially be meaningless since without a Salary Cap factoring into the decisons it would be irrelevant.

Without a Salary Cap Leafs would likely be comforatable giving Sammy a 5 year @ $5.5 mil deal without blinking and avoiding arbitration all together.

We lost Peter Zezel to an arbitration decision in an entirely different NHL RFA world.

 

[wc17]

I think comparing similar career situation would be how they’d come up with comparables. RFAs who are arb eligible who haven’t played a big amount of games.

Hopefully this attachment from capfriendly actually works and seems to have a few good comparables from recent years. I assume the Leafs want no part of a longer term contract.

 

[Notsince67]

What’s a realistic arbitration number for Samsonov to file?

He filed and the leafs can elect 1 year or 2 year term.1 Year seems the most plausible and the largest arbitration awarded in the last few years was Zadorov at 3.7.
I'm guessing 3.5

 

[Phion Keneuf]

The Leaf are unfortunately still being trolled by the incompetence of their previous GM. Where a 5 year @ $5.5 mil deal would look like reasonable ask for Samsonov.

When Sammy compares his #'s including winning a playoff round for the 1st time in 18 years they look really good compared to the entire NHL overall, with nearly top 10 all categories.

View attachment 726747

However when a GM awards a 5 year contract like this to goalie with these stats that come nowhere close to Sammy's you can see the problem it presents to the Leafs.

View attachment 726743

RFA vs UFA.

$3.5M for Sammy on a bridge sounds about right.

 

[tmlms13]

Ilya will ask for 4.5 Leafs will offer 2.5 and he'll get 3.5

/done and probably before they even get to the Arb meeting.

 

[tmlms13]

What some might find interesting is that new Leaf Tyler Bertuzzi's had a previous contract awarded him via arbitration.

Tyler Bertuzzi, LW/RW, Red Wings

Age: 25 | 2019-20 stats: 21-27-48 | Last contract: 2 years, $1.4M AAV | Arbitration Status: Arbitrator awards Bertuzzi $3.5M

An arbitrator awarded Bertuzzi a $3.5-million contract on Oct. 27 after the two sides had a hearing on Oct. 25. Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman reported Bertuzzi asked for $4.25 million at the hearing and the Red Wings countered with $3.15 million.

Here is the Leafs arbitration hearing history past 15 years with 10 cases total, but none ended up with an Arbitration ruling & all settled prior to by Leafs .. Goalie Jonathan Bernier came the closest.

View attachment 726733

View attachment 726734

View attachment 726735

View attachment 726736

View attachment 726737

View attachment 726738

Poor Frankie

 

[Menzinger]

3.5 million seems a tad high given his short sample size of regular season games, and having pretty poor playoff numbers.

2.8-3.2 mil on bridge seems fair

 

[Squiffy]

He filed and the leafs can elect 1 year or 2 year term.1 Year seems the most plausible and the largest arbitration awarded in the last few years was Zadorov at 3.7.
I'm guessing 3.5

Just one year term possible from arbitration decision for Sammy. It's the last year before he's UFA eligible so only 1.

 

[Mess]

There are reports out there that Samsonov is looking for term 4-5 years in the range of $5.5 mil.

One group quoted as "Evolving Hockey has projected the most likely type of contract for Samsonov will be in the 4-year range and will carry a cap hit of just over $5M per season at $5.178M".

Keeping in mind only the 1st year is at RFA status and any and all other years purchased by the Leafs would be at UFA status.

Most players that file for arbitration uses this only as a tool to set a deadline in negotiations forcing a contract guaranteed at its conclusion, but most players that file never complete the process and agree on a new contract prior to their actual case coming up.

 

[Mess]

Samsonov's salary ask from Leafs in arbitration revealed​

The now 26-year-old was given a qualifying offer by the Leafs this summer and has expressed an interest in signing a new deal in Toronto. Samsonov feels like he's finally found a good fit and enjoys life in Toronto and doesn't appear to be phased by the sometimes volatile market.

Samsonov elected to file for salary arbitration this week, which was (presumably) to help the Leafs open up a 2nd buyout window. As it turns out, the arbitration filing may actually be a legitimate one, with the team and player perhaps further apart than any of us would have hoped.

Today on Sportsnet 590's The FAN's The Morning Show, hosts Ailish Forfar and Justin Cuthbert revealed what Samsonov's ask in his arbitration case was. Samsonov is reportedly seeking an AAV between $4M and $5M. His qualifying offer comes in at a little over $2M. No word yet on what the Leafs might be offering in the arb case.

 

[Divine]

The Leaf are unfortunately still being trolled by the incompetence of their previous GM. Where a 5 year @ $5.5 mil deal would look like reasonable ask for Samsonov.

When Sammy compares his #'s including winning a playoff round for the 1st time in 18 years they look really good compared to the entire NHL overall, with nearly top 10 all categories.

View attachment 726747

However when a GM awards a 5 year contract like this to goalie with these stats that come nowhere close to Sammy's you can see the problem it presents to the Leafs.

View attachment 726743

Nope, you cannot use UFA comparables to RFA's in arbitration. That contract is only hurting Pittsburgh.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

1 year 3.25M is what I can see happening

 

[LeafSteel]

Nope, you cannot use UFA comparables to RFA's in arbitration. That contract is only hurting Pittsburgh.

I’m REALLY good with this part…..

I think a 2 year for Samsonov makes sense to determine if Woll is really our long term solution in net.

I can’t see arbitration giving Samsonov more than $3.5 based on what he’s accomplished thus far.

 

[Mess]

Nope, you cannot use UFA comparables to RFA's in arbitration. That contract is only hurting Pittsburgh.

Agreed but what are the odds this goes through that process. Most players that file for Arb never see the light of day in court and most are settled by their teams prior.

Sammy is said to be looking for a 4-5 year deal in excess of $5 mil per. 4 of those 5 years are UFA years and that is where Jarry new deal comes in as the floor with Sammy trying to come in above it.

Jack Campbell whom Sammy replaced in TO signed for 5 years at $5 mil and Jarry signed for 5 years at $5.375 mil new deal.

Sammy claimimg he is better than both and thus worth 5 years @ $5.5 mil AAV adjusting for the 1 year of RFA and 4 X UFA years in his deal.

 

[Divine]

I’m REALLY good with this part…..

I think a 2 year for Samsonov makes sense to determine if Woll is really our long term solution in net.

I can’t see arbitration giving Samsonov more than $3.5 based on what he’s accomplished thus far.

If it goes to an arbitration ruling, it is automatically a 1 year deal. Samsonov only has 1 RFA year left. The arbitrator or team can't force a player to use his UFA years on his ruling.

Agreed but what are the odds this goes through that process. Most players that file for Arb never see the day of light in court and most are settled by their teams prior.

Sammy is said to be looking for a 4-5 year deal in excess of $5 mil per. 4 of those 5 years are UFA years and that is where Jarry new deal comes in as the floor with Sammy trying to come in above it.

Jack Campbell whom Sammy replaced in TO signed for 5 years at $5 mil and Jarry signed for 5 years at $5.375 mil new deal.

Sammy claimimg he is better than both and thus worth 5 years @ $5.5 mil AAV adjusting for the 1 year of RFA and 4 X UFA years in his deal.

If that's what he's looking for, let it go to arbitration and take the one year deal. I don't trust Samsonov, he has a focus issue. Some of the goals he allows he just loses focus. Look at the deal Skinner just signed for a RFA comparable, he got 2.6M X 3 and had better numbers than Samsonov when he signed.

Of course Samsonov wants a long term deal after the best year of his career. The Leafs have all the leverage and can get a 1 year deal even if he doesn't want it. If he has a bad year, I bet he'll no longer look for a long term deal and want another 1 year deal.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I'd worked off of 3.5M x 2 years for a while but the goalie market other than Jarry's UFA contract looks like it hurts his case more than anything.

I think 2 years at 3M is a real fair deal.