Confirmed with Link: G Ilya Samsonov heads to arbitration (Awarded 1 year, $3.55M)

[Mess]

Arbitration can only reward a 1 year deal correct? I can see him getting a 1 year deal at 3.8 million.

Arbitration is only for RFA years and Sammy is only 1 year from UFA status, so any deal by arbitration would be 1 year length walking him right up to free agency next summer.

 

[ULF_55]

Leafs structure is very good.

So goal tending shouldn't be an issue.

High octane team with a good defensive structure.

Why all the angst in this thread?

 

[tmlfan98]

Logon Thompson is even rumored to be available now... but, dont know how severe his injury was, and 'lower body' injuries for goalies (if groin) can be chronic.

Source? If this is true, Leafs should trade Samsonov, trade for Logan Thompson and go cheap in net with a Thompson/Woll tandem. Both goalies make less than league minimum.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Logon Thompson is even rumored to be available now... but, dont know how severe his injury was, and 'lower body' injuries for goalies (if groin) can be chronic.

Source? If this is true, Leafs should trade Samsonov, trade for Logan Thompson and go cheap in net with a Thompson/Woll tandem. Both goalies make less than league minimum.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Unfortunately Lou's too busy once again handing out multiple crippling contracts on the Island to answer.

You mean you aren't supposed to give out a 7 year contract to Pierre Engvall?

 

[Squiffy]

You mean you aren't supposed to give out a 7 year contract to Pierre Engvall?

3 million AAV will be a great.. value… by…..

Lol, I can’t even joke. Unless the cap is at 150 in 5 years that contract is getting bought out at some point.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

3 million AAV will be a great.. value… by…..

Lol, I can’t even joke. Unless the cap is at 150 in 5 years that contract is getting bought out at some point.

He and Freddy the Goat both never met a hit they wouldn't pass up.

 

[Michoulicious]

2.5 millions apart on a 4 millions AAV deal? Holysh**.

Should get around 4 millions peron a shortish deal (2 y), 5+ on a longer one (4+ years) according to comparables.

 

[Da Cool Rula]

Hmmm I've never been a fan of Samsonov. Pls get a legit #1 or a good vet that could help develop Woll...

 

[thusk]

but beat Vassy, and the Leafs were outplayed in that series.
he also entered the playoffs hurt and played through injury until Schenn knocked him out.

mind you, i wouldnt give him 4-5 either, but, he certainly didnt crap the bed in the playoffs.

He played 1 great gm

3 trash game were he he didn't gave any chance to his team to win it at all.

he was reason #1 why leafs trailed 2-0 vs florida

overal he had been better than Campbell but not even close to be ebough good to make a playoff run

I have zero faith in Woll long term or in being a starter ever.

I think his legs are too slow and has below average lateral movement.
he's also a bit slow following/tracking the puck behind his net
i.e. the OT goal where he didnt even notice the puck coming back out.

I'd sign Samsonov and then try to move all 3 goalies and target one i actual trusted to be the starter and backup.
We have better quality goalies in the pipeline than usual (finally) but the soonest may not be ready for 2-3 years

Logon Thompson is even rumored to be available now... but, dont know how severe his injury was, and 'lower body' injuries for goalies (if groin) can be chronic.

And samsonov having issue on puck tracking, rebound and constancy

If he would not have weakness, he would be at top of goalie list ahead of vasilevskiy. So yes for sure he still have thing to develop

The only goalie would look like available is hellebuyck right now... but what would be the price to get him right now? WINNIPEG just can keep him, if they are on position to make plauoff at TDL, keep him or trade him So to get him right now maybe youre gonna have to pay a high price ... what would be the cost to get Hellebuyck right now? Samsonov and knies? probably...

 

[Menzinger]

Wait playoff stats? That doesnt seem right..

All stats are in the table when it comes to arbitration - including analytics stuff too on top of the traditional stuff. How the mediator weighs them is less clear

 

[andora]

All stats are in the table when it comes to arbitration - including analytics stuff too on top of the traditional stuff. How the mediator weighs them is less clear

That doesnt seem consistent when players only get paid for regular season :p

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[hockeywiz542]

Can Samsonov and Maple Leafs agree on a contract ahead of their arbitration deadline?

1:02 | July 20, 2023

Toronto Maple Leafs and free agent Ilya Samsonov remain quite far apart in their contract negotiations, but NHL analyst Nick Kypreos believes both sides will come up with something short-term ahead of the arbitration deadline.

 

[Mess]

Samsonov negotiations take an unexpected turn in final hours​

Ever since the Leafs decided not to utilize the NHL's first buyout window of the off season to offload Matt Murray's contract, it's been understood that Ilya Samsonov would be filing for arbitration. Samsonov filing opened up a second buyout window for the Leafs. This allows them to clear the cap space they need to sign him and gave Brad Treliving more time to find an option that wouldn't hurt the Leafs cap next season. Unfortunately, that extra time is running out, as is the time the Leafs and Samsonov have to hammer out a deal before the arbitration hearing.

The expectation was that, as in most cases, the two parties would come to an agreement before the hearing date. It made sense, both sides wanted a deal longer than the 2 year max term that an arbitration award can carry and both sides want to get a deal done. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like there will be one by the time the hearing starts at 9 am on Friday.

Speaking with Toronto Sun reporters, Samsonov's agent, Don Meehan didn't exactly have a reassuring statement.

I really don't know what will happen. I imagine we will meet with the Leafs (one final time before the hearing commences) - Don Meehan

Meehan's words are far from encouraging with the hearing less than 24 hours away. While it's true that the two sides are quite far apart in the numbers on their filings, I wouldn't consider that to be indicative of where they'd like to be. Teams will always lowball and players will always inflate their value. The most likely outcome, arbitration award or not, is that they land somewhere in the middle, Murray gets bought out, and Ilya Samsonov remains a Maple Leaf for, at the very least next season.

 

[al secord]

Samsonov negotiations take an unexpected turn in final hours​

Ever since the Leafs decided not to utilize the NHL's first buyout window of the off season to offload Matt Murray's contract, it's been understood that Ilya Samsonov would be filing for arbitration. Samsonov filing opened up a second buyout window for the Leafs. This allows them to clear the cap space they need to sign him and gave Brad Treliving more time to find an option that wouldn't hurt the Leafs cap next season. Unfortunately, that extra time is running out, as is the time the Leafs and Samsonov have to hammer out a deal before the arbitration hearing.

The expectation was that, as in most cases, the two parties would come to an agreement before the hearing date. It made sense, both sides wanted a deal longer than the 2 year max term that an arbitration award can carry and both sides want to get a deal done. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like there will be one by the time the hearing starts at 9 am on Friday.

Speaking with Toronto Sun reporters, Samsonov's agent, Don Meehan didn't exactly have a reassuring statement.


Meehan's words are far from encouraging with the hearing less than 24 hours away. While it's true that the two sides are quite far apart in the numbers on their filings, I wouldn't consider that to be indicative of where they'd like to be. Teams will always lowball and players will always inflate their value. The most likely outcome, arbitration award or not, is that they land somewhere in the middle, Murray gets bought out, and Ilya Samsonov remains a Maple Leaf for, at the very least next season.

Is this your first experience with NHL arbitration?

 

[tmlfan98]

It's a little weird that they haven't settled on something yet.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Is this your first experience with NHL arbitration?

I arbitrate with myself often

 

[Wrong Wilson]

Especially with the Leafs structure eh?

1-3-1 with Guy there now.

 

[AcerComputer]

TSN Hockey Analyst and former NHL goalie Martin Biron was on SportsCentre last night and was asked about the large gap between the Leafs and Samsonov's filings and where believes the two will settle.

"I don't think you can meet in the middle at $3.675M. I think you have to start at $4M at the very least for Ilya Samsonov," said Biron. "There's 26 active NHL goaltenders that are going to make over $4M next year. Ilya Samsonov is better than probably half of those guys. He was 8th in the league last year in goals saved above expected per game."

Biron's predicted AAV and Samsonov's ask are both below the predicted AAV that Evolving Hockey has listed for Samsonov. They have predicted a 4-year deal with an AAV of $5.1M, so if the Leafs can sign Samsonov for under Evolving Hockey's prediction and his requested arbitration number, the deal should be considered a win for the Leafs.

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Very flawed logic. Goalies who signed a contract years ago who are now under performing and making more than $4m is not how you make contract comparables. You have to compare the stats and the information you had at the time when that goalie was signed, and what their status was (RFA vs UFA).

 

[mouser]

Very flawed logic. Goalies who signed a contract years ago who are now under performing and making more than $4m is not how you make contract comparables. You have to compare the stats and the information you had at the time when that goalie was signed, and what their status was (RFA vs UFA).

Yup. For example Georgiev signed for $3.4m last summer with Colorado and had an incredible 2022-23 season (62GP, 40 wins, 2.53 GAA, .918 sv%)

Samsonov’s 2022-23 season going into arbitration is significantly better than Georgiev’s 2021-22 season when he signed that $3.4m deal. Georgiev’s outstanding 2022-23 stats are not admissible in salary arbitration to compare him to Samsonov. A salary arbitration comparison between only Samsonov and Georgiev says Samsonov should be awarded a good amount more than $3.4m.

Though Georgiev is only one example of many contracts that could be brought up as comparable in salary arbitration. So we have to look across multiple RFA goaltender contracts which could be introduced in arbitration as comparables.


This is dragging out longer than usual for Samsonov. I’m starting to believe theres a significant possibility this goes to an arbitration hearing.

 

[Squiffy]

9am hearing apparently. 10 hours. Like Mouser says, seems like this might actually go.

My guess at it right now, if you’re the Leafs, you can’t really buy UFA years right now, can’t afford it, if you’re Sammy, if they are only offering 1 year anyways and lowballing it in your opinion in the 3’s, you roll the dice.

They probably settle in next 30m now to put egg on my face lol

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Mess]

9am hearing apparently. 10 hours. Like Mouser says, seems like this might actually go.

My guess at it right now, if you’re the Leafs, you can’t really buy UFA years right now, can’t afford it, if you’re Sammy, if they are only offering 1 year anyways and lowballing it in your opinion in the 3’s, you roll the dice.

They probably settle in next 30m now to put egg on my face lol

“I really don’t know what will happen,” Don Meehan, Samsonov’s agent, told the Toronto Sun. “I imagine we will meet the Leafs (one final time before the hearing commences).”

Negotiations with Toronto general manager Brad Treliving and assistant Brandon Pridham can continue up to the hearing, a deadline which often pressures a deal to get worked out.

 

[hullsy47]

Ya but again "who is the source "too many pigeons in this market
Next we ll have Howie berger reporting live from a funeral