Confirmed with Link: G Ilya Samsonov heads to arbitration (Awarded 1 year, $3.55M)

[Racer88]

9am hearing apparently. 10 hours. Like Mouser says, seems like this might actually go.

My guess at it right now, if you’re the Leafs, you can’t really buy UFA years right now, can’t afford it, if you’re Sammy, if they are only offering 1 year anyways and lowballing it in your opinion in the 3’s, you roll the dice.

They probably settle in next 30m now to put egg on my face lol

Egg is delicious my friend ……

 

[Captain Crunch]

He and Freddy the Goat both never met a hit they wouldn't pass up.

Sounds like our three amigos!

 

[Erndog]

Looks like we are really doing this eh?

Pretty amazing how every case seems to settle prior to arb except ours. How many arb cases actually go to the hearing in comparison that get filed? A VERY small number. Don't believe any last season.

Pretty incredible how much conviction our players have. They all sure do hold firm.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

pay him. I thought he was great.

Not in the playoffs

 

[OddyOh]

Half-joking, but do they ever award more than the player's ask? You know, just because it's the Leafs? Sammy comes out of this with $11 mill/yr or something?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

What time is his hearing today?

 

[Erndog]

What time is his hearing today?

9am

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

9am

So they have 75 minutes to get it done

 

[TMLAM34]

I wonder if we’ll hear what he’s awarded right away? Never mind, they have 48 hours.

 

[A1LeafNation]

3.5m x 3 years who says no?

 

[Captain Crunch]

I would argue by having $2m less in cap space next year, it forces Nylander and Matthews to take less. If you try and keep it, those two will just scoop it up, which is actually worse long-term. The reality for this team is that they are not good enough to win anything, they are in a holding pattern for the next two seasons anyway until the Tavares money comes off the books and the cap goes up to $92m+.

Sometimes (very often) you wonder if this core is just not the right mix. Great players, but they can’t get it done when the chips are down. To have only gotten out of the first round once in 7 years, maybe it’s time to rearrange the deck chairs. Unfortunately, Shanahan, I believe, has been the one all along who has wanted to keep this core together.

 

[Racer88]

3.5m x 3 years who says no?

I say no. They can’t afford to sign anyone for more than 1 year until they know what Matthews and Will are taking. It’s as simple as that. If they do sign for more then that they may have to do some significant dismantling of the rest of the team for 24/25 season

 

[Dekes For Days]

Going down to the wire here. Really hoping this doesn't go to arbitration. They're rough and often the beginning of the end for a team-player relationship.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I say no. They can’t afford to sign anyone for more than 1 year until they know what Matthews and Will are taking. It’s as simple as that. If they do sign for more then that they may have to do some significant dismantling of the rest of the team for 24/25 season

Almost everybody is expiring over the next 2 years so the idea that they can't afford to sign anybody beyond 1 year simply isn't true.

Now If you had said Samsonov hadn't earned more than 1 year, that's different I'd agree with that.

But you said they couldn't do and that's just not true

3.5m x 3 years who says no?

Probably Samsonov seeing as his ask is 4.9

 

[Mess]

I think its a really good sign for Leaf Nation that our new GM Treliving in really holding the line, and acting responsibly and in the best interest of the team and trying to get and keep salaries in check.

 

[tmlfan98]

If this actually goes to a hearing, the Leafs don't value Samsonov that high internally. You don't take a player all the way to an arbitration hearing if internally you place a high value on the player. These hearings are known to get nasty.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I think its a really good sign for Leaf Nation that our new GM Treliving in really holding the line, and acting responsibly and in the best interest of the team and trying to get and keep salaries in check.

That's fine in this case but not every case

 

[ACC1224]

Pretty shocked this went to Arbitration.

 

[Nineteen67]

Pretty shocked this went to Arbitration.

Is it official?

 

[ACC1224]

Is it official?

Seems to be.

 

[ToDavid]

Samsonov’s 2022-23 season going into arbitration is significantly better than Georgiev’s 2021-22 season when he signed that $3.4m deal. Georgiev’s outstanding 2022-23 stats are not admissible in salary arbitration to compare him to Samsonov. A salary arbitration comparison between only Samsonov and Georgiev says Samsonov should be awarded a good amount more than $3.4m.

Georgiev’s 22-23 may not be admissible, but Sammy’s performance before 22-23 is. It’s not insignificant that this was his first good season in a few years. In the three seasons prior to their new contracts, they come out very close (Georgiev slightly ahead). Same story across the two prior seasons. Sammy’s playoff performances also don’t help, although Georgiev doesn’t have much of a sample to compare there.

Then you have Vanecek, who didn’t have any high end seasons, but had two decent seasons and no bad ones.

Looking at the $4m+ guys, nearly all of them have a just as strong regular season performance (~0.915+), usually without the bad season “baggage”, as well as a strong playoff performance on their record.

I think it’s fair that he comes in a bit above the $3.4m guys but he’s also clearly a tier down from the $4m guys. I would bet on this coming out around the midpoint of $3.6m.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Half-joking, but do they ever award more than the player's ask? You know, just because it's the Leafs? Sammy comes out of this with $11 mill/yr or something?

The Leafs walk away from that.

 

[Nineteen67]

If this actually goes to a hearing, the Leafs don't value Samsonov that high internally. You don't take a player all the way to an arbitration hearing if internally you place a high value on the player. These hearings are known to get nasty.

I hope they value him simply as a backup to Woll.

Seems to be.

Seems to, but the NHL is notorious for keeping their customers in the dark.

 

[mydnyte]

He played 1 great gm

3 trash game were he he didn't gave any chance to his team to win it at all.

he was reason #1 why leafs trailed 2-0 vs florida

overal he had been better than Campbell but not even close to be ebough good to make a playoff run



And samsonov having issue on puck tracking, rebound and constancy

If he would not have weakness, he would be at top of goalie list ahead of vasilevskiy. So yes for sure he still have thing to develop

The only goalie would look like available is hellebuyck right now... but what would be the price to get him right now? WINNIPEG just can keep him, if they are on position to make plauoff at TDL, keep him or trade him So to get him right now maybe youre gonna have to pay a high price ... what would be the cost to get Hellebuyck right now? Samsonov and knies? probably...

biggest problem(s) with Helle is his contract is already expensive and he wants Vassy $$ ...not to mention a pretty poor playoff record. his save % in the playoffs is better than the way he played and soft goals he allowed

 

[Squiffy]

Looks like we are really doing this eh?

Pretty amazing how every case seems to settle prior to arb except ours. How many arb cases actually go to the hearing in comparison that get filed? A VERY small number. Don't believe any last season.

Pretty incredible how much conviction our players have. They all sure do hold firm.

We’ve never had a case go all the way to an arb decision since the system was set up in 2005. Bernier did a hearing in 2015 but settled before the decision, and nothing else that wasn’t settled before a hearing.