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Confirmed with Link: G Ilya Samsonov heads to arbitration (Awarded 1 year, $3.55M)

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Mess said:
Keep in mind Samsonov was making $2 mil on his Washington deal prior to signing with the Leafs at a discount $1.8 mil to put himself in this position today hoping to have strong #'s to back up his case.

Washington walked away from Sammy without a qualifying offer @$2 mil because they feared an Arbitration ruling would come in higher than they were prepared to go.

Sammy's stats in Toronto including a playoff series win were significantly >>> than his Washington stats of 2021-22 in every goalie metric, including now finishing Top 10 in goals saved above expected with a +18 metric.

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Washington also wanted to sign a more established goalie and having a 2+ mil backup along with an overpriced starter isnt a great idea.
 
Get ready for the worst nightmare $$$ number....because it is the Leafs and a goalie.

Worst number possible is $4.5
$4.58 we can walk.
 
LEAFANFORLIFE23 said:
He's only got 1 year of that level of production and It's only 42 games, his playoff numbers also suck.

He's also got injured IMO he has a VERY weak case.
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I suspect something along that line of thinking is exactly what our new GM Treliving is saying right about now in front of the Arbitrator. :wg:
 
Mess said:
Keep in mind Samsonov was making $2 mil on his Washington deal prior to signing with the Leafs at a discount $1.8 mil to put himself in this position today hoping to have strong #'s to back up his case.

Washington walked away from Sammy without a qualifying offer @$2 mil because they feared an Arbitration ruling would come in higher than they were prepared to go.

Sammy's stats in Toronto including a playoff series win were significantly >>> than his Washington stats of 2021-22 in every goalie metric, including now finishing Top 10 in goals saved above expected with a +18 metric.

View attachment 730287
Click to expand...

I agree. The biggest thing to look at here is the 42 games. This is not an established starter workload. This should work in the Leafs favour.
 
Mess said:
In terms of the timeline here today, once the team and the player present their cases and the arbitration process has concluded and an award has been handed out, the team's 2nd buyout window will open. That window opens at 5pm ET on the third day following the conclusion of the arbitration hearing when the award (or settlement) is presented, according to the Toronto Sun's Terry Koshan. That buyout window lasts only 48 hours.
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Thanks
 
So if he gets 4.5 and under we cannot walk away?
Can he be traded?
I’m personally surprised he didn’t get like a 2 x 3.6 deal
 
1689950195629.png
 
The Iceman said:
Get ready for the worst nightmare $$$ number....because it is the Leafs and a goalie.

Worst number possible is $4.5
$4.58 we can walk.
Click to expand...
and if we 'walk' then we are left with Murray and Woll

even though at the start of the season he was playing really well, I dont trust Murray's health for it to last, and after his first injury, his play did decline
I dont trust Woll to be inserted as a full time starter, nor a full time backup if i'm being honest. decent 3rd string emergency type sure, but, not more than that yet.

So, if we walk, we need a bonified #1 which is a slim market of Helle (mr big bucks) Hart (who isnt more proven than Samsonov, but, i think may have more game stealing potential) and Gibson (who may be as bad as his numbers and his salary) while still needing to deal with Murray's contract.

I guess we could start with Murray and Woll and snag a goalie as they go on waivers as goalies always do, and just wait till Murray ends up on LTIR to grab another starter
 
Mess said:
Keep in mind Samsonov was making $2 mil on his Washington deal prior to signing with the Leafs at a discount $1.8 mil to put himself in this position today hoping to have strong #'s to back up his case.

Washington walked away from Sammy without a qualifying offer @$2 mil because they feared an Arbitration ruling would come in higher than they were prepared to go.

Sammy's stats in Toronto including a playoff series win were significantly >>> than his Washington stats of 2021-22 in every goalie metric, including now finishing Top 10 in goals saved above expected with a +18 metric.

View attachment 730287
Click to expand...

But remember, Samsonov even said its rare to receive only a 1 year offer and he was happy toronto did that for him. Usually its 2 or 3 coming off the year he did so they can maybe get a deal on him.
 
mydnyte said:
and if we 'walk' then we are left with Murray and Woll

even though at the start of the season he was playing really well, I dont trust Murray's health for it to last, and after his first injury, his play did decline
I dont trust Woll to be inserted as a full time starter, nor a full time backup if i'm being honest. decent 3rd string emergency type sure, but, not more than that yet.

So, if we walk, we need a bonified #1 which is a slim market of Helle (mr big bucks) Hart (who isnt more proven than Samsonov, but, i think may have more game stealing potential) and Gibson (who may be as bad as his numbers and his salary) while still needing to deal with Murray's contract.

I guess we could start with Murray and Woll and snag a goalie as they go on waivers as goalies always do, and just wait till Murray ends up on LTIR to grab another starter
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No we cannot start with Murray and Woll
 
Sammy isn’t getting paid elsewhere to play on a competitive team. The goalie market is slim pickings so if receives an offer the leafs can’t accommodate he’s in a poor position

I think he comes in 4.1 x 2 years. If 1 year it’s at 3.8.
 
LEAFANFORLIFE23 said:
No we cannot start with Murray and Woll
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It wouldnt be ideal, but, if we walk from Samsonov, we are still slightly over the cap and dont have another goalie unless we deal for one.

If its under the walk away amount, we need to hope its low enough that dumping Murray is enough to fit under the cap, else we need to deal Brodie/Nylander for lesser salary coming back to get cap compliant.
 
joepeps said:
But remember, Samsonov even said its rare to receive only a 1 year offer and he was happy toronto did that for him. Usually its 2 or 3 coming off the year he did so they can maybe get a deal on him.
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Samsonov is just 1 year away from free agency status at present so the Arbitration process is only for RFA (restricted free agents) to use to settle contracts so Leafs don't get a chance to ask for 2 years as that would buy 1 year of free agency from Sammy.

If Sammy couldn't get a longer term deal from the Leafs in advance then this is his best option and settle for 1 year and then test free agency next year. But how can you blame him when he sees his former GM hand Tristan freaking Jarry this contract. 5 years at $5.375 AAV

1689950687206.png


While posting these numbers

1689950806691.png


Its really hard for good GMs to lock up their own players to value contracts like Treliving tried, when you have GMs like this flooding the market with bad over priced ridiculous contracts with players far under-performing your own player. An incompetent GM destroys the market for all others trying to manage their teams responsibly under a salary cap.

So Sammy position being if the Leafs aren't willing to go over $4 mil on a term deal like he wanted 4-5 years, then I might as well take my chances in Arbitration on a 1 year deal and play out my last RFA year and then hit it big next summer as a free agent, if that is what the market is willing to pay (prior to a larger cap ceiling boost). Treliving holding the line and not folding realizing the Sammy is still somewhat unproven and its too big a risk to hand him that contract today, shows a good understanding of team building and risk/reward.
 
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Once said:
Sammy isn’t getting paid elsewhere to play on a competitive team. The goalie market is slim pickings so if receives an offer the leafs can’t accommodate he’s in a poor position

I think he comes in 4.1 x 2 years. If 1 year it’s at 3.8.
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2 years isnt an option
 
Mess said:
Samsonov is just 1 year away from free agency status at present so the Arbitration process is only for RFA (restricted free agents) to use to settle contracts so Leafs don't get a chance to ask for 2 years as that would buy 1 year of free agency from Sammy.

If Sammy couldn't get a longer term deal from the Leafs in advance then this is his best option and settle for 1 year and then test free agency next year. But how can you blame him when he sees his former GM hand Tristan freaking Jarry this contract. 5 years at $5.375 AAV

View attachment 730296

While posting these numbers

View attachment 730298

Its really hard for good GMs to lock up their own players to value contracts like Treliving tried, when you have GMs like this flooding the market with bad over priced ridiculous contracts with players far under-performing your own player.

So Sammy position being if the Leafs aren't willing to go over $4 mil on a term deal, then I might as well take my chances in Arbitration on a 1 year deal and play out my last RFA year and then hit it big next summer as a free agent.
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and the previous 3 seasons he was .909 .909 and .921 and has been a 'starter' for more than one season, so, he has a history to base his case on.
I think it was a bad signing out of desperation of a very poor goalie UFA class, but, not our problem.
 
If Samsonov was taking a hard line on his salary demands, might as well go to a hearing. He had an excellent regular season for us, but his overall body of work throughout his career prior to that should weigh in the Leafs favor.
 
Treliving knows how the arbitration will go for him. He's dealt with a lot of goalies before and he knows their worth.
 
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