Confirmed with Link: G Ilya Samsonov heads to arbitration (Awarded 1 year, $3.55M)

[Jimmy Firecracker]

 

[Squiffy]

Don't forget the 2nd buyout window preceding the ruling, triggered by a RFA Arbitration case/ruling.

That is how the CBA is addressing your example of being over the salary cap limit + 10% slush fund + offseason LTIR which Leafs potnetially could be with a ruling over the limited amount of space left.

Teams have the next few days after the ruling to get back in line, via trades or buyout window to get back in compliance.

If a Samsonov arbitration award puts the Leafs over the off-season cap they will have a grace period to become cap compliant again.

The CBA doesn't specify exactly how long that period is. I expect it's at least until the 2nd buyout window closes. The whole point of the 2nd buyout window is to allow teams to become cap compliant following an arbitration contract.

Right, I’m over-thinking it.

 

[mouser]

Georgiev’s 22-23 may not be admissible, but Sammy’s performance before 22-23 is. It’s not insignificant that this was his first good season in a few years. In the three seasons prior to their new contracts, they come out very close (Georgiev slightly ahead). Same story across the two prior seasons. Sammy’s playoff performances also don’t help, although Georgiev doesn’t have much of a sample to compare there.

Then you have Vanecek, who didn’t have any high end seasons, but had two decent seasons and no bad ones.

Looking at the $4m+ guys, nearly all of them have a just as strong regular season performance (~0.915+), usually without the bad season “baggage”, as well as a strong playoff performance on their record.

I think it’s fair that he comes in a bit above the $3.4m guys but he’s also clearly a tier down from the $4m guys. I would bet on this coming out around the midpoint of $3.6m.

Agree Georgiev had some better seasons prior to 2021-22 and Samsonov had some worse seasons prior to 2022-23.

While arbitration arguments and comparisons can cover stats for all previous seasons I suspect the arbitration award will end up weighing the most recent season performance heavier than prior seasons.

 

[thusk]

Marstrom sucked last season with a .892 2.92 but, the previous few years are pretty stable
21-22 2.22 .922
20-21 2.68 .904
19-20 2.75 .918
18-19 2.77 .912
17-18 2.71 .912
lowest start total was 43 games
Gibson on the other hand had an also miserable .899 3.99 last year and his previous seasons were
21-22 3.19 .904
20-21 2.98 .903
19-20 3.00 .904
18-19 2.84 .917
17-18 2.43 .926
lowest start total was 35 games
yet you think Gibson who has 4 years left (vs 3 @6) at 6.4 if the better option?
there is also a slight size difference in 6'6" Markstrom vs 6'2" Gibson

I'd sooner expect Markstrom to bounce back after 1 off season vs Gibson who has been in a steady decline over the last 5 seasons

The biggest negative against Markstrom is that he is 3 years older than Gibson with 437 NHL games however, Gibson already (at 30) has 431 NHL games, so, the toll on the body is pretty much the same.

I'd try to deal with Philly and get Hart and Konecny for Samsonov and Nylander

Calgary is 2nd in term of expected goal against, only Boston was better last 3 season

Anaheim is the worst team ...

Move markstrom in anaheim, he wouls become nothing more than a 0,890% goalie...

 

[ULF_55]

Samsonov came to Toronto last offseason on a one-year, $1.8 million contract after being left unqualified by the Washington Capitals. With his new club, the 26-year-old had the best season of his career to date, posting a 2.33 goals against average (GAA) along with a .919 save percentage (SV%) and a 27-10-5 record. He began the season as the Leafs’ number two netminder but went on to earn the starting role after Matt Murray struggled to stay healthy.

Leafs were willing to pay Samsonov's backup Murray $4.687 mil for 24 games of service with these stats.

View attachment 730324

while Sammy posted these as the starter.

View attachment 730326

Leafs own internal salary scale gave Treliving no chance to get Sammy signed to a 3-4 year deal below $4 mil.

Then you have Leafs ex-Gm giving Tristan Jarry a 5 year @ $5.375 mil based on these stats.

View attachment 730328

Now you can see why Don Meehan Sammy's agent asking the Leafs for 4-5 years @ $4.25-$4.5 mil per (1 year of RFA and 4 years of UFA).

Treliving trying to get Sammy signed at $3.5-$3.8 mil on a 3 year deal completely reasonable (based on experience) BUT completely undoable based on the above factors and with arbitration rights this was really the only option for BT to go. IMO

Would Leaf fans be happy BT caved to player/agent demads and had him locked up longer term at $4.5 mil per? Even a 1 year only Arb ruling in the $4's would still be a better outcome keeping Leafs flexible with Matthews, Marner and Nylander deals still unsettled, leaving the most cap flexibility for higher priority players and contracts.. IMO

Let him walk if it's too high.

Whatever the x-GM did in Toronto or does with his new employer is not my concern.

Treliving is responsible for what he does in Toronto, who cares if he gave out 2-3 pretty seriously flawed contracts last year in his previous gig? What he did there has zero bearing on what he does in Toronto.

Feet
Fire

 

[ULF_55]

Marstrom sucked last season with a .892 2.92 but, the previous few years are pretty stable
21-22 2.22 .922
20-21 2.68 .904
19-20 2.75 .918
18-19 2.77 .912
17-18 2.71 .912
lowest start total was 43 games
Gibson on the other hand had an also miserable .899 3.99 last year and his previous seasons were
21-22 3.19 .904
20-21 2.98 .903
19-20 3.00 .904
18-19 2.84 .917
17-18 2.43 .926
lowest start total was 35 games
yet you think Gibson who has 4 years left (vs 3 @6) at 6.4 if the better option?
there is also a slight size difference in 6'6" Markstrom vs 6'2" Gibson

I'd sooner expect Markstrom to bounce back after 1 off season vs Gibson who has been in a steady decline over the last 5 seasons

The biggest negative against Markstrom is that he is 3 years older than Gibson with 437 NHL games however, Gibson already (at 30) has 431 NHL games, so, the toll on the body is pretty much the same.

I'd try to deal with Philly and get Hart and Konecny for Samsonov and Nylander

Did he ever recover from the Oilers beat down in the playoffs?

 

[Buds17]

If he comes in at say 4 cant we still trade him if we think its too much?

I believe that's a possibility/allowed, yes.

 

[Mess]

Right, I’m over-thinking it.

No such thing Pal as over-thinking anything in life as that simply helps one make less mistakes.

Remember my overthinking last week where I feared an Arbitrator could award Sammy a deal above $4.538,958, (walk away threshold) and Leafs might be sitting here with young Joseph Woll and injury prone Matt Murray as their only goalies in the system. BT perhaps preparing/bracing for this outcome by not using the 1st buyout window to remove Murray.

With recent reports suggesting Matt Murray is claiming injury/heath issues trying to prevent a buyout as per CBA Leafs might be having a lot of their hands forced. While I agree with @mouser that Leafs will likely still go through with it anyways claiming Murray was healthy enough to backup in the playoffs and face a possible grievance later.

But if they walked away from Sammy, and bought out Murray they would be cap compliant but in a real pickle with their goaltending.

Stay tuned as this could unfold in many different ways now, and some not in Leafs favour.

 

[ULF_55]

Stay tuned as this could unfold in many different ways now, and some not in Leafs favour.

We are so lucky to be Leafs fans.

So many teams have keepers under contract, players signed, rosters almost set and get a summer of absolutely nothing of importance to concern themselves with.

Okay, if the Leafs folded I'd miss them, but it wouldn't change my life any more than the Expos moving out of Montreal.

But it's like watching a slowly moving accident, with a chance no one is injured, or cars damaged.

 

[mydnyte]

Player chose to go arbitration so team can choose either 1 or 2 year deal

Samsonov is a UFA next year, so, only 1 year is available in arbitration not 2 ...Leafs do not have that available.

If the Flames want to give Wolf a real shot, why would they want to add both Samsonov and Woll? They'd be in the exact same boat they're in now with 3 goalies.

you are correct Woll is hard to do something with because he cannot be sent down without waivers.
...i was mostly including him because I heard Tre really wants Vladar, but he isnt cheap either.

 

[mydnyte]

No such thing Pal as over-thinking anything in life as that simply helps one make less mistakes.

Remember my overthinking last week where I feared an Arbitrator could award Sammy a deal above $4.538,958, (walk away threshold) and Leafs might be sitting here with young Joseph Woll and injury prone Matt Murray as their only goalies in the system. BT perhaps preparing/bracing for this outcome by not using the 1st buyout window to remove Murray.

With recent reports suggesting Matt Murray is claiming injury/heath issues trying to prevent a buyout as per CBA Leafs might be having a lot of their hands forced. While I agree with @mouser that Leafs will likely still go through with it anyways claiming Murray was healthy enough to backup in the playoffs and face a possible grievance later.

But if they walked away from Sammy, and bought out Murray they would be cap compliant but in a real pickle with their goaltending.

Stay tuned as this could unfold in many different ways now, and some not in Leafs favour.

if thats the case, Leafs can/will LTIR him, and thats the easiest/best option for Toronto.

 

[ULF_55]

if thats the case, Leafs can/will LTIR him, and thats the easiest/best option for Toronto.

Perhaps he needs surgery that will be Stone cold better by April?

 

[Mess]

Let him walk if it's too high.

Whatever the x-GM did in Toronto or does with his new employer is not my concern.

Treliving is responsible for what he does in Toronto, who cares if he gave out 2-3 pretty seriously flawed contracts last year in his previous gig? What he did there has zero bearing on what he does in Toronto.

Feet
Fire

I'm suggesting the inherited difficulty in re-signing Nylander is partly due to the inherited contracts of his teammates and Leafs internal scale and Willy put up comparative stats to his $11 mil teammates. Pretty hard for Treliving to get Willy signed for $8.8 mil long term, without not factoring in the inherited mess of his own teammates making +$4 mil more.

Treliving is using recent market contracts signed of Timo Meier and Alex DeBrincat as his source for Willy's number so outside contracts and comparables matter and so zero bearing what other GMs do is not true in that sense and used to help set market prices.

When then applying that same logic to Sammy's situation, if someone was willing to pay your broken down backup goalie $4.687 mil for 24 games, and then think you're going to get your starting goalie for $3.2-$3.5 mil at reasonable amount is a pure pipe dream, when the backup goalie far outproduces the starter when you factor in internal inherited salaries, and value to the team based on actual performance.

Leafs internal system is so badly broken but inherited by the new GM to deal with. This is going to take the next few years and some expiring contracts to help resolve this.

Sammy and his agent are looking at all contracts handed out, and comparing both internal and external deals and as such its of little surprise that they would turn down all Leaf offers below $4.5 mil and gamble on a 1 year Arb award and then walk themselves up to free agency next summer, or if the award is above above $4.538,958 might be a UFA next week and go looking for the Tristan Jarry contract once set free by Leafs.

BT can't put a gun to his head to get him to sign a deal he doesn't like, and the arbitration process guarantees them a new contract, where without Arb rights could only sit out and withhold services. BT simply has no control over this process or outcome as his hands are tied outside of the case he presents to the Arbitrator on Leafs behalf, so it is what it is. .. People can hold his feet to the fire if they like, but even if one put themselves in his precarious position they could do no better because of the actions of others previously dictating the hand BT must play.

 

[Nineteen67]

But you cant know something like that until it happens

Goalie development should only be abput playing games in the nhl NOT being a starter or number 1 or split starter etc...

Focus on if the player has it for the show period and go from there. Developing your own nhl goalie is a win regardless

Yes, and I think this year is the show period for Woll.

 

[Trapper]

This is the walk away number for 2023-24 .. Player elected Arbitration Settlements of 1 year and greater than $4,538,958, Club can walk away from the awarded salary, making the player a UFA.

Pure guess on may part, but $3.5 mil value assigned on his 1 X RFA year and $4.5 mil UFA 1 year and $4.75 mil UFA 2 year, so a 3 year deal at $12.75 mil total = $4.25 mil AAV settlement with the Leafs on an extensions is roughly what I'm expecting.

 

[Mess]

if thats the case, Leafs can/will LTIR him, and thats the easiest/best option for Toronto.

You can't simply LTIR a player in the offseason, with months to go before training camp and then for the full season ahead without DR. being involved.

However if Murray does block his buyout with medical records and Sammy gets a big Arb award the Leafs will be well over the legal off-season cap limit and need to get compliant in short order.

Leafs might even be forced to buyout or trade current other roster players to absorb the Samsonov Arb contract without the Murray get out of jail buyout, as any potential LTIR only help once the season begins (excluding Muzzin who qualifies for offseaon LTIR relief now due to being injured when the season concluded).

Lots of moving parts here to factor into both the Arb ruling and how/what Leafs plan on doing with it once it happens.

 

[ULF_55]

You can't simply LTIR a player in the offseason, with months to go before training camp and then for the full season ahead without DR. being involved.

However if Murray does block his buyout with medical records and Sammy gets a big Arb award the Leafs will be well over the legal off-season cap limit and need to get compliant in short order.

Leafs might even be forced to buyout or trade current other roster players to absorb the Samsonov Arb contract without the Murray get out of jail buyout, as any potential LTIR only help once the season begins (excluding Muzzin who qualifies for offseaon LTIR relief now due to being injured when the season concluded).

Lots of moving parts here to factor into both the Arb ruling and how/what Leafs plan on doing with it once it happens.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

 

[mydnyte]

You can't simply LTIR a player in the offseason, with months to go before training camp and then for the full season ahead without DR. being involved.

However if Murray does block his buyout with medical records and Sammy gets a big Arb award the Leafs will be well over the legal off-season cap limit and need to get compliant in short order.

Leafs might even be forced to buyout or trade current other roster players to absorb the Samsonov Arb contract without the Murray get out of jail buyout, as any potential LTIR only help once the season begins (excluding Muzzin who qualifies for offseaon LTIR relief now due to being injured when the season concluded).

Lots of moving parts here to factor into both the Arb ruling and how/what Leafs plan on doing with it once it happens.

if we need to move a player/players
Brodie
Nylander
are the obvious choices that can bring in a decent return
For Brodie, a younger unestablished d-man ideally ...or for picks/prospects, and then flip him to get a d-man like Peeke
Nylander should return a far better player than brodie would and we would only need to look to bring back a slightly less expensive payer ala Pesce/Hanifin and fill a need and also alleviate cap issues a little.

 

[drede]

The Murray buyout would have to be today or do we have time.

Buyout period would start like Sunday believe it's 48 hours after the hearing

 

[mydnyte]

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

no to a Brodie buy-out, as in addition to not making sense because he is still a very effective blue liner (regardless that i want to see him dealt) his buyout is much worse than a buy-out of Murray.

 

[trellaine201]

Wonder if they will trade him ? Are they allowed after the arbitrator gives his ruling.

 

[ToDavid]

I've been wondering lately what the benefit is to requiring players to attend arbitration?

We constantly hear what a nightmare arbitration is. So why is the player even there? That's exactly why they have agents, to separate the negotiation from any personal emotions and relationships.

I'm struggling to find the benefit to having the player sit in a room for 90 minutes listening to their team tell them how bad they are. Especially when most players are quite open about not being very involved in their contract negotiation. To the extent they say anything at all at the hearing, its likely just what their agent has coached them to say.

 

[PromisedLand]

Yup. we really shouldn't mess with goalie's head lol

btw when is the expected announcement of what the aav may be. Tonight or next week?

 

[justashadowof]

About hearing arguments against yourself at an arbitration hearing, there's an easy solution. Don't attend your arbitration hearing. Trust your representation. Otherwise be available to be contacted if something needs to be clarified.

 

[PromisedLand]

If its a number we dont like cant we trade him

if it is a number we don't like; chances are that number won't be liked with majority of the teams so that means trading him won't be as easy.

Also we need 2 goalies anyway; can't bank on Murray; so we are kinda desperate to get Sammy on our side and stay on at least for this season given the cap constraints.

If anything, Murray may get bought out, traded or LTIR'd. I prefer Murray going to LTIR that way Murray gets to keep the entire salary and can use the time to heal and get into the mix next year as a UFA goalie. TBD of course