Confirmed with Link: G Ilya Samsonov heads to arbitration (Awarded 1 year, $3.55M)

[Squiffy]

One wrinkle I was trying to sort out is exactly how much cap space do the Leafs have right now to sign Samsonov without moving out a contract beforehand.

Per reports Muzzin was placed on off-season LTIR to make room to sign Domi. At the moment that happened Toronto would have exactly $5.625m in free cap space (LTIR relief). Any additional space they had under the offseason cap is lost when LTIR is invoked.

Toronto then announced the signings of Domi $3m and Gambrell $775k. That would leave Toronto with $1.85m in remaining LTIR relief. There would also still be a $1.8m cap hit on the books for the Samsonov QO. Meaning the maximum contract Toronto could sign Samsonov to without making a prior move is $3.65m ($1.85M + $1.8m).

If Toronto actually signed Gambrell before Domi and the Muzzin LTIR then the remaining LTIR relief space would be increased by $775k, leaving the Leafs with $4.425m to sign Samsonov without a prior move. That would have been the optimal approach, though the media/press release order of actions is listed as 1) LTIR Muzzin, 2) sign Domi, 3) sign Gambrell.

Potentially interesting right? What happens if an award plunges a team in to non-compliance? It’s a deal as soon as it is announced, they can’t know what it will be, what’s a team to do? Correct me if I’m wrong, but the CBA doesn’t imagine this scenario right?

11.6? The NHL rejects it? But then Sammy is meant to revert to qualified RFA status right, and it becomes circular.

Might have arbitration on the arbitration coming lol..

 

[thusk]

biggest problem(s) with Helle is his contract is already expensive and he wants Vassy $$ ...not to mention a pretty poor playoff record. his save % in the playoffs is better than the way he played and soft goals he allowed

He cant allowed more weak goal than what Samsonov and campbell did last 3

And thats also why i said im trusti more Woll than Samsonov...

 

[notdoneyet]

If its a number we dont like cant we trade him

 

[ULF_55]

Is this another bullet Treliving left in the chambers?

1 - coach
2 - goalie arbitration

"I'm not responsible for issues left by the previous regime.
Not my fault Samsonov wouldn't sign under the constraints I inherited."

 

[mydnyte]

Treliving knows how the arbitration will go for him. He's dealt with a lot of goalies before and he knows their worth.

I can almost see a big trade post arbitration if they have anything worked out with Murray

Samsonov (likely 4 mil arb amount)
Woll
Nylander

for

Markstrom (33% retention to bring the cap hit to ~4 )
Vladar
Hanifin

Calgary wants to give Wolf a shot, and Samsonov would be an ideal tandem, and if Wolf proves his worth, they can deal or let Samsonov walk.

this would balance the cap hits equally and give Trev his hand picked goalies and d-man

Calgary gets the better assets in my opinion, but, Markstrom was supposedly dealing with 'personal' issues last year that have been resolved, so, he may be in line for a rebound.
Calgary saves $$ even with the retention and gives Wolf a chance to establish himself with a reliable tandem who isnt locked in for more years at big $$

He cant allowed more weak goal than what Samsonov and campbell did last 3

And thats also why i said im trusti more Woll than Samsonov...

oh, he certainly did ...he let in really bad, and very deflating goals.
He's may be the leagues best regular season goalie, but, not a playoff stopper I'd trust.

 

[thusk]

I can almost see a big trade post arbitration if they have anything worked out with Murray

Samsonov (likely 4 mil arb amount)
Woll
Nylander

for

Markstrom (33% retention to bring the cap hit to ~4 )
Vladar
Hanifin

Calgary wants to give Wolf a shot, and Samsonov would be an ideal tandem, and if Wolf proves his worth, they can deal or let Samsonov walk.

this would balance the cap hits equally and give Trev his hand picked goalies and d-man

Calgary gets the better assets in my opinion, but, Markstrom was supposedly dealing with 'personal' issues last year that have been resolved, so, he may be in line for a rebound.
Calgary saves $$ even with the retention and gives Wolf a chance to establish himself with a reliable tandem who isnt locked in for more years at big $$


oh, he certainly did ...he let in really bad, and very deflating goals.
He's may be the leagues best regular season goalie, but, not a playoff stopper I'd trust.

I prefer take the risk with Gibson before being as desesparate for Markstrom

 

[Nineteen67]

and if we 'walk' then we are left with Murray and Woll

even though at the start of the season he was playing really well, I dont trust Murray's health for it to last, and after his first injury, his play did decline
I dont trust Woll to be inserted as a full time starter, nor a full time backup if i'm being honest. decent 3rd string emergency type sure, but, not more than that yet.

So, if we walk, we need a bonified #1 which is a slim market of Helle (mr big bucks) Hart (who isnt more proven than Samsonov, but, i think may have more game stealing potential) and Gibson (who may be as bad as his numbers and his salary) while still needing to deal with Murray's contract.

I guess we could start with Murray and Woll and snag a goalie as they go on waivers as goalies always do, and just wait till Murray ends up on LTIR to grab another starter

IMO, Woll is the key to the whole timeline. They need to know if he’s capable of being a number 1 goalie or if they to upgrade.
Samsonov is a good back up but not at 4 MM.

 

[andora]

IMO, Woll is the key to the whole timeline. They need to know if he’s capable of being a number 1 goalie or if they to upgrade.
Samsonov is a good back up but not at 4 MM.

But you cant know something like that until it happens

Goalie development should only be abput playing games in the nhl NOT being a starter or number 1 or split starter etc...

Focus on if the player has it for the show period and go from there. Developing your own nhl goalie is a win regardless

 

[mydnyte]

I prefer take the risk with Gibson before being as desesparate for Markstrom

Marstrom sucked last season with a .892 2.92 but, the previous few years are pretty stable
21-22 2.22 .922
20-21 2.68 .904
19-20 2.75 .918
18-19 2.77 .912
17-18 2.71 .912
lowest start total was 43 games
Gibson on the other hand had an also miserable .899 3.99 last year and his previous seasons were
21-22 3.19 .904
20-21 2.98 .903
19-20 3.00 .904
18-19 2.84 .917
17-18 2.43 .926
lowest start total was 35 games
yet you think Gibson who has 4 years left (vs 3 @6) at 6.4 if the better option?
there is also a slight size difference in 6'6" Markstrom vs 6'2" Gibson

I'd sooner expect Markstrom to bounce back after 1 off season vs Gibson who has been in a steady decline over the last 5 seasons

The biggest negative against Markstrom is that he is 3 years older than Gibson with 437 NHL games however, Gibson already (at 30) has 431 NHL games, so, the toll on the body is pretty much the same.

I'd try to deal with Philly and get Hart and Konecny for Samsonov and Nylander

 

[TMLAM34]

f*** it, trade for Logan Thompson. Run a Thompson - Woll tandem for a combined 1.54 million dollars for the next two years…

Put the extra cap space into improving the teams blueline.

Half joking, half being serious. Lol

 

[Buds17]

A bit surprised to have the situation go this far. Mind you, that doesn't necessarily mean the outcome will end up being unfortunate.

 

[Mess]

Potentially interesting right? What happens if an award plunges a team in to non-compliance? It’s a deal as soon as it is announced, they can’t know what it will be, what’s a team to do? Correct me if I’m wrong, but the CBA doesn’t imagine this scenario right?

11.6? The NHL rejects it? But then Sammy is meant to revert to qualified RFA status right, and it becomes circular.

Might have arbitration on the arbitration coming lol..

Don't forget the 2nd buyout window preceding the ruling, triggered by a RFA Arbitration case/ruling.

That is how the CBA is addressing your example of being over the salary cap limit + 10% slush fund + offseason LTIR which Leafs potnetially could be with a ruling over the limited amount of space left.

Teams have the next few days after the ruling to get back in line, via trades or buyout window to get back in compliance.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Is this another bullet Treliving left in the chambers?

1 - coach
2 - goalie arbitration

"I'm not responsible for issues left by the previous regime.
Not my fault Samsonov wouldn't sign under the constraints I inherited."

He was left with an awful situation all around. The previous GM saw to sabotaging things for the next guy.

Brad has a mulligan for a few years in my eyes.

 

[drede]

cant remember the rules ...if we accept the arb amount (under walk away), then we cant trade him for a year ...even though he can only get a 1 year deal?
...and as soon as the case started he cant be signed, which was supposed to have been 9am i think?
its strange that yesterday i saw a bunch of tweets indicating the arbitration case had started (Kurashev a minor player in comparison), but, not a peep for Samsonov's case

Player chose to go arbitration so team can choose either 1 or 2 year deal

 

[PromisedLand]

Frack!

And now we wait....

 

[BallardEra]

A bit surprised to have the situation go this far. Mind you, that doesn't necessarily mean the outcome will end up being unfortunate.

Maybe the Leafs walk away from Samsonov? At this point everything is on the table.

 

[AcerComputer]

I think its a really good sign for Leaf Nation that our new GM Treliving in really holding the line, and acting responsibly and in the best interest of the team and trying to get and keep salaries in check.

Too early to say. Dubas held the line 2 months after the season started when it came to Nylander. We don't know what his and Matthews deals will look like yet. So holding the line on a simple arbitration case that will resolve itself isn't much to write home about.

 

[ULF_55]

He was left with an awful situation all around. The previous GM saw to sabotaging things for the next guy.

Brad has a mulligan for a few years in my eyes.

As I suggested, Treliving's Marleau.

 

[aingefan]

I would argue by having $2m less in cap space next year, it forces Nylander and Matthews to take less. If you try and keep it, those two will just scoop it up, which is actually worse long-term. The reality for this team is that they are not good enough to win anything, they are in a holding pattern for the next two seasons anyway until the Tavares money comes off the books and the cap goes up to $92m+.

I personally think the 2mil buyout concern is a bit overblown. There’s a ton of money coming off the cap before considering Murray, and a load of contract spots opening up, too. The cap’s probably going up that 2mil anyway, and there’s only AM, WN and TL to resign to term.
Meanwhile, assuming those three are all signed (and possibly Sammy depending on what happens with him) there’s already 5 top 6 forwards on the roster, 3 top 4 D, two key goalies and Kampf/Jarnkrok/Holmberg/Reaves/Timmins under contract for next year. That’s 15/21 spots full, 8 of the 10 most important skater spots, and goaltending lined up. It’s not that much of a mess.

The other RFA’s down below will be cost effective.

And there’s a bunch of Marlies who will have another year under their belt in competition for jobs, min free agents.

Positioning looks perfectly fine to me, with little reason to expect regressions.

 

[Buds17]

Maybe the Leafs walk away from Samsonov? At this point everything is on the table.

The arb award would have to be in excess of ~4.5M though in order for that to be possible. While the notion of Samsonov winning such an amount isn't impossible...

 

[notdoneyet]

The arb award would have to be in excess of ~4.5M though in order for that to be possible. While the notion of Samsonov winning such an amount isn't impossible...

If he comes in at say 4 cant we still trade him if we think its too much?

 

[BallardEra]

The arb award would have to be in excess of ~4.5M though in order for that to be possible. While the notion of Samsonov winning such an amount isn't impossible...

Maybe Leafs look to trade him as well. I get the feeling Treliving is not 100% sold on him.

 

[Rob Brown]

I can almost see a big trade post arbitration if they have anything worked out with Murray

Samsonov (likely 4 mil arb amount)
Woll
Nylander

for

Markstrom (33% retention to bring the cap hit to ~4 )
Vladar
Hanifin

Calgary wants to give Wolf a shot, and Samsonov would be an ideal tandem, and if Wolf proves his worth, they can deal or let Samsonov walk.

this would balance the cap hits equally and give Trev his hand picked goalies and d-man

Calgary gets the better assets in my opinion, but, Markstrom was supposedly dealing with 'personal' issues last year that have been resolved, so, he may be in line for a rebound.
Calgary saves $$ even with the retention and gives Wolf a chance to establish himself with a reliable tandem who isnt locked in for more years at big $$

If the Flames want to give Wolf a real shot, why would they want to add both Samsonov and Woll? They'd be in the exact same boat they're in now with 3 goalies.

 

[Mess]

Is this another bullet Treliving left in the chambers?

1 - coach
2 - goalie arbitration

"I'm not responsible for issues left by the previous regime.
Not my fault Samsonov wouldn't sign under the constraints I inherited."

Samsonov came to Toronto last offseason on a one-year, $1.8 million contract after being left unqualified by the Washington Capitals. With his new club, the 26-year-old had the best season of his career to date, posting a 2.33 goals against average (GAA) along with a .919 save percentage (SV%) and a 27-10-5 record. He began the season as the Leafs’ number two netminder but went on to earn the starting role after Matt Murray struggled to stay healthy.

Leafs were willing to pay Samsonov's backup Murray $4.687 mil for 24 games of service with these stats.

while Sammy posted these as the starter.

Leafs own internal salary scale gave Treliving no chance to get Sammy signed to a 3-4 year deal below $4 mil.

Then you have Leafs ex-Gm giving Tristan Jarry a 5 year @ $5.375 mil based on these stats.

Now you can see why Don Meehan Sammy's agent asking the Leafs for 4-5 years @ $4.25-$4.5 mil per (1 year of RFA and 4 years of UFA).

Treliving trying to get Sammy signed at $3.5-$3.8 mil on a 3 year deal completely reasonable (based on experience) BUT completely undoable based on the above factors and with arbitration rights this was really the only option for BT to go. IMO

Would Leaf fans be happy BT caved to player/agent demads and had him locked up longer term at $4.5 mil per? Even a 1 year only Arb ruling in the $4's would still be a better outcome keeping Leafs flexible with Matthews, Marner and Nylander deals still unsettled, leaving the most cap flexibility for higher priority players and contracts.. IMO

 

[mouser]

Potentially interesting right? What happens if an award plunges a team in to non-compliance? It’s a deal as soon as it is announced, they can’t know what it will be, what’s a team to do? Correct me if I’m wrong, but the CBA doesn’t imagine this scenario right?

11.6? The NHL rejects it? But then Sammy is meant to revert to qualified RFA status right, and it becomes circular.

Might have arbitration on the arbitration coming lol..

If a Samsonov arbitration award puts the Leafs over the off-season cap they will have a grace period to become cap compliant again.

The CBA doesn't specify exactly how long that period is. I expect it's at least until the 2nd buyout window closes. The whole point of the 2nd buyout window is to allow teams to become cap compliant following an arbitration contract.