Confirmed with Link: G Ilya Samsonov heads to arbitration (Awarded 1 year, $3.55M)

[LeafalCrusader]

Thinking he's gone a year from now. Surprised that the two sides couldn't agree on a one year extension.

 

[Squiffy]

Thinking he's gone a year from now. Surprised that the two sides couldn't agree on a one year extension.

I just don't think there was a deal to make here from the Leaf side. They can't afford to buy UFA years with their cap problems. That leaves a one year deal walking him to UFA, they think they should get that cheap, not really wrong. Sammy's side figures your cap problems are not my problem, should be more, also not wrong. Tailor made for arbitration. Leafs get the one year deal they could only offer anyways, at less then what a deal to sign him would have been, Sammy gets more then they would offer.

Now the Leafs gotta figure it out.

 

[mouser]

What are his options?

He gets paid 8 million this year. Or

He gets paid 5.4 million over 2 years.

Who is giving him a 2.5 million dollar salary to make up the difference? In august. Who needs him?

Murray turned 29 two months ago. Unless he believes his career is over and never playing again you can't simply reduce the scenario down to how much he is paid in 2023-24 to make up the gap of a $2.5m buyout haircut.

If Murray is bought out next week, the bare minimum some team will sign him for in 2023-24 is $1.125m--the maximum buried contract amount. I think he'd get more.

Simplifying this to three game theory options:

a) Murray believes his career is over, take the extra $2.5m and stay on LTIR is the best choice.
b) Murray believes he can play next season after a buyout for $1m-$1.5m and does well, setting himself up for a $3m+ payday in 2024-25 (age 30).
c) Murray believes he can play next season but sits out 2023-24 and signs a $1m-$1.5m prove in contract in 2024-25. If he does well sets himself up for a $3m+ payday in 2025-26 (age 31). Potentially missing out on a higher 2024-25 paycheck at age 30 and a year on a longer term contract.

If Murray can stay healthy enough to be a decent backup quality goaltender, option (b) is likely to be the financially best choice for him.

Also consider there may be some very competitive playoff contending teams willing to sign Murray at $1.125m knowing they're already planning on using LTIR and worst case his contract will be buried or claimed on waivers. It's low risk for those teams and potential upside for Murray on his next contract to sign and perform well with an above average team.

 

[Mess]

Would the Leafs walk away from a ruling above the +$4.5 mil threshold, making Sammy a UFA or accept any ruling the Arbitrator makes and deal with the 1 year contract?

Leafs new GM Treliving has shown great personal resolve holding the line and not overpaying on this contract for a fairly still untested goalie, wanting more sample data to commit to higher amounts and term which is positive.

 

[Fogelhund]

I highly doubt Samsonov is awarded a number above that which we can walk away from. Having said that, if he is, do we really think we’d walk and go with Woll and maybe Elliot?

 

[ULF_55]

I highly doubt Samsonov is awarded a number above that which we can walk away from. Having said that, if he is, do we really think we’d walk and go with Woll and maybe Elliot?

At least we know Treliving has to do something.

He has 13 forwards, 7 defenders, 1.4 keepers and seriously over the Cap.

He added around $10mm to the Cap since taking over.

Summer entertainment.

 

[Mess]

I highly doubt Samsonov is awarded a number above that which we can walk away from. Having said that, if he is, do we really think we’d walk and go with Woll and maybe Elliot?

I do agree on both accounts that its not likely to receive that award BUT you never know. I suspect Sammy and agent Meehan used Florida's Spencer Knight as a comparable. Who was drafted in the 1st round like Samsonov and so both have the high draft capital of potential and Knight signed a 3 year 13.5 mil (4.5 mil AAV) as his RFA years, That is essentially the walk away threshold.

I don't think the Leafs will walk away from any award, because of their weak goalie depth and only youngster Joseph Woll in the Leafs future picture.

However if the Leafs accept say an award of $4.6 mil then any future contract extensions with Sammy will have that as the floor as that was his RFA price, and now you will be buying UFA years on a multi-year extension at higher amounts. This might still turn out as a one and done season as a Leaf depending on the Arbitration award.

 

[TheDoldrums]

I really don't get the praise for "playing hardball" here when Tre lobbed softballs to Reaves, Kampf and Klingberg.

Samsonov had really good advanced stats too, this wasn't a Jack Campbell situation. He was probably a top 10 goalie last year and is young. I like Woll too but some folks are being way too casual about Sammys importance to the team. Disappointing they couldn't work something out before this.

 

[ACC1224]

Would the Leafs walk away from a ruling above the +$4.5 mil threshold, making Sammy a UFA or accept any ruling the Arbitrator makes and deal with the 1 year contract?

Leafs new GM Treliving has shown great personal resolve holding the line and not overpaying on this contract for a fairly still untested goalie, wanting more sample data to commit to higher amounts and term which is positive.

IMO we really don’t know much about his resolve yet.

 

[ULF_55]

I really don't get the praise for "playing hardball" here when Tre lobbed softballs to Reaves, Kampf and Klingberg.

Samsonov had really good advanced stats too, this wasn't a Jack Campbell situation. He was probably a top 10 goalie last year and is young. I like Woll too but some folks are being way too casual about Sammys importance to the team. Disappointing they couldn't work something out before this.

Perhaps he just couldn't get anything done around the team to make it work.
We know Matthews and Nylander situation had no bearing on this, they're already signed to contracts for the upcoming season.

If they canceled the arbitration hearing would they still have a buy-out window, or did just having a player file ensure the 2nd. window?

Not looking great so far.

 

[Mess]

IMO we really don’t know much about his resolve yet.

Early signs are promising and taking Sammy thru Arbitration because his ask was too high despite strong #'s was a real positive start. Leafs have NEVER had a player complete the Arb process so this is the first.

Both Matthews and Nylander remain unsigned and that also suggests Treliving is holding out for the best deal in the best interest of the team. With Willy asking for $10.5 like his other teammates and Treliving rumoured to be looking at $8.8 (Timo Meier deal). Trying to get as many years term from Matthews is delaying that signing. So the longer they remain unsigned the more it appears Treliving is holding the line.

If Treliving now comes out and trades Nylander instead of caves to another double digit forward, and explains to the fan base he offered a fair deal and buck stops here, that would be a real sign he is serious about fixing Leafs cap Hell and overspending.

Who here believes if we still had our former GM that Sammy wouldn't be sitting here with a similar contract to Tristan Jarry of 5 years and $5.375 mil and that Nylander would have his +$10 mil deal completed and AM would be rocking his new cap busting short-term deal?

"In Treliving we are beginning to trust but still TBD"

 

[ULF_55]

Both Matthews and Nylander remain unsigned and that also suggests Treliving is holding out for the best deal in the best interest of the team. With Willy asking for $10.5 like his other teammates and Treliving rumoured to be looking at $8.8 (Timo Meier deal). Trying to get as many years term from Matthews is delaying that signing. So the longer they remain unsigned the more it appears Treliving is holding the line.

Actually, Matthews and Nylander are both signed.

I think you mean Treliving is still trying to extend them.

He's quite generous when it comes to extending players, so we'll have to wait and see what the results are. I suspect one will be easier to sign and the other will look to be the highest paid player with the shortest term. Long term, it doesn't bode well for the franchise. Some players want to be treated like basketball players, others have a history in hockey.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I really don't get the praise for "playing hardball" here when Tre lobbed softballs to Reaves, Kampf and Klingberg.

Samsonov had really good advanced stats too, this wasn't a Jack Campbell situation. He was probably a top 10 goalie last year and is young. I like Woll too but some folks are being way too casual about Sammys importance to the team. Disappointing they couldn't work something out before this.

Samsonov did have a great year, but there's certainly some red flags there. He was #1 in the league in high danger sv% this year, but just 65th the year before and 54th the year before that. So he either had a miraculous turnaround and is suddenly the best goalie in the world at dealing with the hardest shots, or it's a bit of a fluke. In the playoffs this year, he ended up 14th out of 18 goalies (min. 300 minutes) in high danger sv%. He's had a pretty bad playoff track record overall

The Reaves/Kampf/Klingberg deals all suck and have very little chance at aging well, but they're also pretty low risk. A big long term deal to Samsonov might look a lot worse going forward, so I think it's fine to want him to prove he can do it again. He's got great size and athletic ability, but he's also prone to mental lapses, questionable positioning, and poor rebound control. Hopefully that stuff gets worked out with time

 

[Mess]

There are 32 teams and 32 starting goalies in the NHL of which Samsonov was one last year.

Here are the current salaries of Top 26 highest paid goalies in the NHL..

Now were would you slot Sammy in on that NHL goalie pay scale with Sammy coming off a season where he posted?

If he receives an Arbitration reward <$4 mil then that would place him outside the Top 25 goalies and his peers despite having top 10 #'s in almost every goalie category and won the Leafs a playoff round.

 

[thusk]

I do agree on both accounts that its not likely to receive that award BUT you never know. I suspect Sammy and agent Meehan used Florida's Spencer Knight as a comparable. Who was drafted in the 1st round like Samsonov and so both have the high draft capital of potential and Knight signed a 3 year 13.5 mil (4.5 mil AAV) as his RFA years, That is essentially the walk away threshold.

View attachment 730524
I don't think the Leafs will walk away from any award, because of their weak goalie depth and only youngster Joseph Woll in the Leafs future picture.

However if the Leafs accept say an award of $4.6 mil then any future contract extensions with Sammy will have that as the floor as that was his RFA price, and now you will be buying UFA years on a multi-year extension at higher amounts. This might still turn out as a one and done season as a Leaf depending on the Arbitration award.

I dont think the 2 situation are similar...

Kniggt was 21 showed promising thing and florida bet on potential of what knight would look like 1-2-3 years later

Samsonov is at 26 who had been pretty inconsistant all his carreer and whos dont have pretty good reputation on playoff...

Samsonov is closer to Campbell type of scenario for me than Knight

 

[Mess]

I dont think the 2 situation are similar...

Kniggt was 21 showed promising thing and florida bet on potential of what knight would look like 1-2-3 years later

Samsonov is at 26 who had been pretty inconsistant all his carreer and whos dont have pretty good reputation on playoff...

Samsonov is closer to Campbell type of scenario for me than Knight

Seems to me you have Sammy's range between #19 Campbell UFA @$5 mil and #22 Knight RFA @ $4.5 mil on the goalie scale.

 

[Stephen]

I just don't think there was a deal to make here from the Leaf side. They can't afford to buy UFA years with their cap problems. That leaves a one year deal walking him to UFA, they think they should get that cheap, not really wrong. Sammy's side figures your cap problems are not my problem, should be more, also not wrong. Tailor made for arbitration. Leafs get the one year deal they could only offer anyways, at less then what a deal to sign him would have been, Sammy gets more then they would offer.

Now the Leafs gotta figure it out.

I think the Leafs are basically trying to resist giving Ilya Samsonov the Jack Campbell contract. They avoided a franchise crippling land mine there, and while Samsonov has provided good short term value with unknown upside here on out, maybe there's enough about him under pressure they don't love.

 

[DarkKnight]

I really don't get the praise for "playing hardball" here when Tre lobbed softballs to Reaves, Kampf and Klingberg.

Samsonov had really good advanced stats too, this wasn't a Jack Campbell situation. He was probably a top 10 goalie last year and is young. I like Woll too but some folks are being way too casual about Sammys importance to the team. Disappointing they couldn't work something out before this.

Ya hardball with UFA’s, there’s a strategy we see often. SMH.

 

[Divine]

There are 32 teams and 32 starting goalies in the NHL of which Samsonov was one last year.

Here are the current salaries of Top 26 highest paid goalies in the NHL..

View attachment 730530

Now were would you slot Sammy in on that NHL goalie pay scale with Sammy coming off a season where he posted?

View attachment 730531 View attachment 730532

If he receives an Arbitration reward <$4 mil then that would place him outside the Top 25 goalies and his peers despite having top 10 #'s in almost every goalie category and won the Leafs a playoff round.

Now remember, you can’t use UFA contracts as comparables in arbitration.

He was one of the worst goalie in the playoffs, played fewer games than most of those goalies and faced the least shots on a top 5 team in the NHL. Of course those boosted his stats.

 

[Mess]

I think the Leafs are basically trying to resist giving Ilya Samsonov the Jack Campbell contract. They avoided a franchise crippling land mine there, and while Samsonov has provided good short term value with unknown upside here on out, maybe there's enough about him under pressure they don't love.

Leafs were very fortunate to win a playoff round as Sammy was not good come the pressure of the playoffs.

8 playoff games with 4 wins 4 losses & 3.13 GA/G and .898 SV% under pressure is not someone I would lock up long-term.

Youngster Woll with a 2.43 GA/G and .915 sv% outperformed Sammy quite significantly.

 

[Mess]

Now remember, you can’t use UFA contracts as comparables in arbitration.

He was one of the worst goalie in the playoffs, played fewer games than most of those goalies and faced the least shots on a top 5 team in the NHL. Of course those boosted his stats.

I'm aware (for Arbitration purposes) but this is just showing where Sammy would be placed using all NHL goalies as comparables.

Also keep in mind had they extended Sammy on more than a 1 year deal then only next year would be at RFA rate and all years following would be at UFA rate, which is what this goalie list would represent then.

His goalie stats regular season placed him Top 10 among his peers, but Leafs want to get him for an amount outside starting goalie range at $3.5 mil.

 

[Divine]

I'm aware (for Arbitration purposes) but this is just showing where Sammy would be placed using all NHL goalies as comparables.

Also keep in mind had they extended Sammy on more than a 1 year deal then only next year would be at RFA rate and all years following would be at UFA rate, which is what this goalie list would represent then.

His goalie stats regular season placed him Top 10 among his peers, but Leafs want to get him for an amount outside starting goalie range at $3.5 mil.

He hasn’t really played starting goalie games in his career though. His 42 games last season is basically a tandem. What goalie(s) are playing the other 40 games? That hurts his value.

In fact, he’s never played more than 44 games in his career. So he’s never really been the traditional starter, always been a tandem guy. Tandem goalies make less.

 

[Mess]

He hasn’t really played starting goalie games in his career though. 42 games is basically a tandem. What goalie(s) are playing the other 40 games? That hurts his value.

In fact, he’s never played more than 44 games in his career. So he’s never really been the traditional starter, always been a tandem guy. Tandem goalies make less.

I actually like Treliving holding the line on Sammy for the point you're making.

I personally would not be surprised if Woll and Samsonov form Leafs tandem next year and its Woll that plays the more games and posts the better individual stats.

I'm hoping Woll is the Leafs home grown drafted and developed goalie of the future, and eventually he is he one Leafs invest in long term where others are simply brought in as cheaper backups.

"Play the Kids" ..

 

[mouser]

He hasn’t really played starting goalie games in his career though. 42 games is basically a tandem. What goalie(s) are playing the other 40 games? That hurts his value.

In fact, he’s never played more than 44 games in his career. So he’s never really been the traditional starter, always been a tandem guy. Tandem goalies make less.

I agree it impacts his value, but this is also highly relative. Looking at the active RFA goaltenders with $3M+ AAV, maximum # of games in a season before signing their current RFA contract

$3.4M Georgiev - 34 games
$3.4M Vanacek - 42 games
$3.98M Hart - 43 games
$4M Oettinger - 48 games
$4M Sorokin - 22 games (vet KHL outlier though)
$4.5M Knight - 32 games
$5M Saros - 40 games
$5M Demko - 35 games
$5.67M Shesterkin - 35 games
$6.17M Hellebuyck - 67 games
$6.25M Murray - 50 games
$6.4M Gibson - 60 games
$9.5M Vasilevskiy - 65 games

 

[Divine]

I agree it impacts his value, but this is also highly relative. Looking at the active RFA goaltenders with $3M+ AAV, maximum # of games in a season before signing their current RFA contract

$3.4M Georgiev - 34 games
$3.4M Vanacek - 42 games
$3.98M Hart - 43 games
$4M Oettinger - 48 games
$4M Sorokin - 22 games (vet KHL outlier though)
$4.5M Knight - 32 games
$5M Saros - 40 games
$5M Demko - 35 games
$5.67M Shesterkin - 35 games
$6.17M Hellebuyck - 67 games
$6.25M Murray - 50 games
$6.4M Gibson - 60 games
$9.5M Vasilevskiy - 65 games

The issue is you’re including goalies who have UFA years in their contract for the same value and/or the majority of the contract are for UFA years.

The UFA years are supposed to be more expensive, the goalie finally has leverage. It’s fairer to compare RFA only contracts.

For example, Vasi’s RFA’s contract was 3.5M x 3. However, you’re including his UFA contract as a comparable for some reason.

Demko’s RFA contract was 1.05M x 2.

Samsonov will be giving up no UFA years with this arbitration ruling. He will be walked straight to UFA, which usually comes at a discount.