Confirmed with Link: G Ilya Samsonov heads to arbitration (Awarded 1 year, $3.55M)

[TheDoldrums]

Ya hardball with UFA’s, there’s a strategy we see often. SMH.

We could just not sign bad UFAs so we're not scrambling to fit our good players under the cap.

 

[Racer88]

I personally think it’s extremely cool and good that no matter how Samsonov plays next season we’re destined to lose him it seems. Plays good? Can’t afford him. Plays bad? Why bring him back? Amazing. Great negotiating Pizza boy. How is it other franchises can lock up their goalies on short term deals for 2-3 years but here we’re incapable of settling on a fair number to to have just a smidgen of stability in the crease?

The reason we can’t lock up a good goalie is because 50% of our cap goes owsrds 4 soft similar forwards…….thank Dubas for that one. The gift that keeps giving and giving.

 

[mouser]

The issue is you’re including goalies who have UFA years in their contract for the same value and/or the majority of the contract are for UFA years.

The UFA years are supposed to be more expensive, the goalie finally has leverage. It’s fairer to compare RFA only contracts.

For example, Vasi’s RFA’s contract was 3.5M x 3. However, you’re including his UFA contract as a comparable for some reason.

Demko’s RFA contract was 1.05M x 2.

Samsonov will be giving up no UFA years with this arbitration ruling. He will be walked straight to UFA, which usually comes at a discount.

Both Vasi and Demko signed their currents contracts as RFAs and are thus eligible to be used as comparables in salary arbitration. Demko's contract for example includes 2 RFA years and 3 UFA years.

I'm not arguing contracts with UFA years should be valued identical to contracts with only RFA years. I'm sure it's very common for salary arbitration to include arguments how to value or discount comparisons with both RFA and UFA years. That said, those contracts with a mix of RFA and UFA years are still admissible as comparables.

 

[Clark4Ever]

I think the Leafs are basically trying to resist giving Ilya Samsonov the Jack Campbell contract. They avoided a franchise crippling land mine there, and while Samsonov has provided good short term value with unknown upside here on out, maybe there's enough about him under pressure they don't love.

Yes, and I agree with that position.

Samsonov really needs another prove it contract to ascertain if he is worth committing meaning cap dollars to long term.

 

[Mess]

Both Vasi and Demko signed their currents contracts as RFAs and are thus eligible to be used as comparables in salary arbitration. Demko's contract for example includes 2 RFA years and 3 UFA years.

I'm not arguing contracts with UFA years should be valued identical to contracts with only RFA years. I'm sure it's very common for salary arbitration to include arguments how to value or discount comparisons with both RFA and UFA years. That said, those contracts with a mix of RFA and UFA years are still admissible as comparables.

I was just looking earlier at the Demko contract for some clarity,

Based on this structure it looks like the first 2 X RFA years are valued at $7 mil total or $3.5 mil AAV and then the 3 X UFA years @ $18 mil total have a $6 mil AAV

That = a 5 years / $25 mil & $5 mil AAV.

So Leafs trying to get 1 X RFA year from this Arbitration ruling based on this example are in the ball park hoping for $3.5 mil AAV.

However I can also see where the Samsonov camp was coming from wanting term 4-5 years and around $5 mil AAV with the first RFA year discounted at $3.5 mil.

PS. With a flat cap and only rising +$1 mil per year since Demko signed that's only a marginal +$2 mil total cap ceiling increase over time that might need a slight adjustment for due to timing of sigining.

 

[LeafSteel]

I am most interested in seeing if Woll doesn't take the starting goalie job by the end of the next season.

I think the Leafs are wondering too, hence the interest in a 1 year contract.

One of the more interesting scenarios to watch next season.

 

[Mess]

I am most interested in seeing if Woll doesn't take the starting goalie job by the end of the next season.

I think the Leafs are wondering too, hence the interest in a 1 year contract.

One of the more interesting scenarios to watch next season.

My thoughts exactly as Woll despite being a rookie outperformed Samsonov significantly in the playoffs in terms of GA/G and SV%.

Sammy camp wanting some term on his deal 4-5 years, but Treliving thinking not so fast lets see how this goaltending tandem unfolds next year and if its a 50/50 split in games then why would they invest $5 mil in Samsonov in a shared goalie system and if Woll wins the starter job then Sammy becomes a very expensive backup for $5mil AAV to play 30 games.

That is the reason Leafs didn't fear going through Arbitration as it buys them next season with Sammy under contract to gather more data and then commit long-term with more info to make a better decision,

 

[mouser]

I was just looking earlier at the Demko contract for some clarity,

Based on this structure it looks like the first 2 X RFA years are valued at $7 mil total or $3.5 mil AAV and then the 3 X UFA years @ $18 mil total have a $6 mil AAV

That = a 5 years / $25 mil & $5 mil AAV.

View attachment 730604

So Leafs trying to get 1 X RFA year from this Arbitration ruling based on this example are in the ball park hoping for $3.5 mil AAV.

However I can also see where the Samsonov camp was coming from wanting term 4-5 years and around $5 mil AAV with the first RFA year discounted at $3.5 mil.

PS. With a flat cap and only rising +$1 mil per year since Demko signed that's only a marginal +$2 mil total cap ceiling increase over time that might need a slight adjustment for due to timing of sigining.

I doubt arbitration simply goes by compensation in the RFA seasons on the contract vs the UFA season.

Some examples where this is inverted:
- Georgiev on his $3.4M AAV is paid $3.6M for his RFA year and $3.3M/year for the two UFA years.
- Vasilevskiy on a $9.5M AAV is paid $11.5M/year for the two RFA years and $8.83M/year on the UFA years.
- Hellebuyck on $6.17M AAV is paid $6.5M/year for the two RFA years and $6M/year for the four UFA years.

 

[Rob Brown]

One example is what Stephen said below

Already responded to that

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

There's no cats, cujos, or eagles out there.

Let's roll with Woll.

I like Samsonov, but he has to be cheap........like $2.5 but isn't that what the Leafs are going in with?

 

[Divine]

I doubt arbitration simply goes by compensation in the RFA seasons on the contract vs the UFA season.

Some examples where this is inverted:
- Georgiev on his $3.4M AAV is paid $3.6M for his RFA year and $3.3M/year for the two UFA years.
- Vasilevskiy on a $9.5M AAV is paid $11.5M/year for the two RFA years and $8.83M/year on the UFA years.
- Hellebuyck on $6.17M AAV is paid $6.5M/year for the two RFA years and $6M/year for the four UFA years.

We don't actually know what percentage of split UFA/RFA deals are dedicated to the UFA/RFA years.

Goalies generally get paid really low on their RFA years versus UFA years though, as they really have minimal leverage in RFA unless they're a superstar. You rarely, if ever, see a team offersheeting an RFA goalie to force a team to sign early.

Usually on RFA-only deals, the salaries are 4M or less, even for superstar goalies.

I think Samsonov should get something similar to Skinner (2.6M) if all was fair. Skinner played more games than Samsonov this year, as well as more games than Samsonov has played in any season in his career. Skinner also has a better career average than Samsonov.

However, that won't be the case because of career games played probably. So somewhere under 3.5M is ideal.

 

[mouser]

We don't actually know what percentage of split UFA/RFA deals are dedicated to the UFA/RFA years.

Goalies generally get paid really low on their RFA years versus UFA years though, as they really have minimal leverage in RFA unless they're a superstar. You rarely, if ever, see a team offersheeting an RFA goalie to force a team to sign early.

Usually on RFA-only deals, the salaries are 4M or less, even for superstar goalies.

I think Samsonov should get something similar to Skinner (2.6M) if all was fair. Skinner played more games than Samsonov this year, as well as more games than Samsonov has played in any season in his career. Skinner also has a better career average than Samsonov.

However, that won't be the case because of career games played probably. So somewhere under 3.5M is ideal.

You can use Skinner’s $2.6m AAV as a comparable to Samsonov in salary arbitration. However you can’t use Skinner’s full 2022-23 season stats compared to Sansonov‘s 2022-23 stats because Skinner signed his $2.6m extension for 2023-24 on Dec 19th 2022 after only playing 19 of his 50 games in 2022-23 prior to the extension.

In short, Skinner signed the $2.6m extension with only 33 NHL games played in total—13 and 1 the prior two seasons. Anyone feel free to tally up Skinners collective career stats in those 33 games. Or the 19 games last season.

Samsonov is currently at 131 games.

 

[Divine]

You can use Skinner’s $2.6m AAV as a comparable to Samsonov in salary arbitration. However you can’t use Skinner’s full 2022-23 season stats compared to Sansonov‘s 2022-23 stats because Skinner signed his $2.6m extension for 2023-24 on Dec 19th 2022 after only playing 19 of his 50 games in 2022-23 prior to the extension.

In short, Skinner signed the $2.6m extension with only 33 NHL games played in total—13 and 1 the prior two seasons. Anyone feel free to tally up Skinners collective career stats in those 33 games. Or the 19 games last season.

Samsonov is currently at 131 games.

Skinner had a higher save percentage when he signed his extension than the end of the season - so those numbers would be even higher.

Found an article as I don't know what website to use to see his stats on a certain date.

Oilers sign goalie Stuart Skinner to three-year, $7.8M extension

The Edmonton Oilers have signed goalie Stuart Skinner to a three-year extension worth $2.6 million per season, the team announced Monday.

www.sportsnet.ca

Skinner has taken over as the Oilers' primary starter amid free agent Campbell's struggles this season. In 19 games, the Edmonton native has a .915 save percentage, leading the club to nine of their 17 wins thus far.

At the time of the extension, he had 19 starts, and had a .915 save percentage, which is just higher than what he finished the year with (.914). His career stats at that point would also have been better than Samsonov's, as they are right now. The only thing Samsonov would have better is a better save percentage this season (.919) but a lower career save percentage with more games played.

 

[mouser]

Skinner had a higher save percentage when he signed his extension than the end of the season - so those numbers would be even higher.

Found an article as I don't know what website to use to see his stats on a certain date.

Oilers sign goalie Stuart Skinner to three-year, $7.8M extension

The Edmonton Oilers have signed goalie Stuart Skinner to a three-year extension worth $2.6 million per season, the team announced Monday.

www.sportsnet.ca

At the time of the extension, he had 19 starts, and had a .915 save percentage, which is just higher than what he finished the year with (.914). His career stats at that point would also have been better than Samsonov's, as they are right now. The only thing Samsonov would have better is a better save percentage this season (.919) but a lower career save percentage with more games played.

Thanks for crunching the numbers.

We never know how an arbitrator will rule or how the player and teams sides present their arguments over whether a specific player is comparable or not. The 33 GP vs 131 GP is a major arbitration hurdle to argue Samsonov should receive a lower award closer to Skinner or even an award based on some % of Skinner‘s AAV.

My instinct is the arbitrator will place low to no weight on Skinner’s deal. There should be other RFA contracts entering into the hearing the arbitrator will weigh higher as comparable to Samsonov.

 

[ANDI P IS CUTE]

sammy needs to stay healthy first.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Yup. we really shouldn't mess with goalie's head lol

btw when is the expected announcement of what the aav may be. Tonight or next week?

Decision has to be made in 48 hours, and the hearing was Friday so the decision must be made today at some point

 

[ACC1224]

Decision has to be made in 48 hours, and the hearing was Friday so the decision must be made today at some point

It would be nice to know the number but I suspect that will be announced tomorrow.

 

[trellaine201]

This afternoon according to Chris Johnson. He was quoted earlier in this thread.

 

[Mess]

Thanks for crunching the numbers.

We never know how an arbitrator will rule or how the player and teams sides present their arguments over whether a specific player is comparable or not. The 33 GP vs 131 GP is a major arbitration hurdle to argue Samsonov should receive a lower award closer to Skinner or even an award based on some % of Skinner‘s AAV.

My instinct is the arbitrator will place low to no weight on Skinner’s deal. There should be other RFA contracts entering into the hearing the arbitrator will weigh higher as comparable to Samsonov.

I'm interested to find out if the Arbitrator will show their work and explain his decision or just respond with a number.

So few of these cases make it through the arbitration system, so it would be good to be able to learn some new stuff on rulings and that might actually increase future cases.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I highly doubt Samsonov is awarded a number above that which we can walk away from. Having said that, if he is, do we really think we’d walk and go with Woll and maybe Elliot?

No, If they walked away They'd make a trade

 

[Havoc]

This only makes sense if we low balled him @ 1 mil.

Bye bye Samsonov.

Woll is better anyways.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

There's no cats, cujos, or eagles out there.

Let's roll with Woll.

I like Samsonov, but he has to be cheap........like $2.5 but isn't that what the Leafs are going in with?

I like Woll, he's been great in his 10 career games.

10 career games

You career give a guy with 10 career games the #1 job.

 

[Nineteen67]

I like Woll, he's been great in his 10 career games.

10 career games

You career give a guy with 10 career games the #1 job.

Yes. They need to know if he can play.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Yes. They need to know if he can play.

They do but that requires 20 starts not 55

 

[Nineteen67]

They do but that requires 20 starts not 55

20 is back up They need to build him up into an NHL starter. 45 this year and if can do it increase it to 55 next year.