Speculation: Free Agent Frenzy Part VI: Someone Get Gorton A Vesey Button.

[Pavel Buchnevich]

News Flash - Teams that win have good/great/elite players....

But the are also TEAMS. There are plenty of teams in the league with Elite talent that do not win....

I agreed with that yesterday when someone said that.

 

[Trxjw]

For sure. I've been saying this in the prospect polls the past few rounds. Size (which he doesn't really utilize as well as he should), wheels, awesome shot. If he could speed up the mental part of his game a notch, and do a better job anticipating the play to find space, he could be a very nice complementary winger. However, those two things he needs to improve are very difficult to do. Some of it will come with pro experience, but whether he speeds it up enough is what I think will determine whether he's a decent AHL guy or an actual NHL contributor.

Yeah it's really a matter of him being able to find the soft spots in the ice, or being paired up with a guy who can create those spots for him. That's what he had with Barzal the same way Neal had it with Malkin.

The shot and release are plus-plus attributes, but his ability to process the game is a few steps too slow right now. Hopefully he can build off of last season and maybe earn a call up this year.

 

[Trxjw]

Same. Will fully admit I hopefully bought in at draft time.

Took me a while to get over passing on Spring but I can at least see some of the appeal in hindsight.

 

[nyr__1994]

I agreed with that yesterday when someone said that.

And to extend that thought - The teams that have won, have had players that their performance was significantly higher than their cap hit. Whether that was through player choice (Crosby) or what are now cap circumventing contracts (Chicago with Hossa and Keith and LA with Richards and Carter).

 

[Tawnos]

Gropp is a 21 year old 2nd year pro coming off a decent but not amazing 1st year.

We talk about him like he’s 24

 

[Profet]

Only five 1OA drafted in the last 20 years. won the SC. Ovechkin (a truly generational talent) had to wait 14 years.

The flipside is that only zero teams in the last 10 years won the SC without at least one top 5 draft pick (that they themselves drafted).

2018 - Backstrom, Ovechkin
2017 - Crosby, Malkin, Fleury
2016 - Crosby, Malkin, Fleury
2015 - Toews, Kane
2014 - Doughty
2013 - Toews, Kane
2012 - Doughty
2011 - Seguin
2010 - Toews, Kane
2009 - Crosby, Malkin, Fluery, Staal

 

[Mac n Gs]

But thats where you miss the point. It kind of is a requirement. In the last 10 seasons, 9 winners had elite talent.

I’ve already dove into this topic in the past, but my only recommendation here is to cite how many different teams fall into this category. Nine is a bit misleading when it’s mostly just CHI, LA, and PIT. I get your overall point though, and I agree that it’s necessary for where this team wants to go.

I don’t necessarily think it’s as definitive as top-3= elite talent, but there’s definitely useful models that help forecast draft picks. I think the Rangers utilize these based on their two most recent drafts going for Euros that score in men’s leagues and avoiding juniors. However, that’s a discussion for a different thread

 

[nyr2k2]

Gropp is a 21 year old 2nd year pro coming off a decent but not amazing 1st year.

We talk about him like he’s 24

I agree that we speak of him as if he was a more senior prospect, but I disagree with the characterization of his year as "decent," by any stretch. He had a 12-game span where he scored 7 goals and 2 assists. Basically half of his total production came in 20% of the season--and that was December, so it's not like it was towards the end of the year and things were finally clicking. He had a shitty year, and worse, when I watched (granted only 4-5 times all year), he was completely unnoticeable on the ice. He absolutely deserves more time before anyone writes him off. But last year, it was bad.

 

[silverfish]

I agree that we speak of him as if he was a more senior prospect, but I disagree with the characterization of his year as "decent," by any stretch. He had a 12-game span where he scored 7 goals and 2 assists. Basically half of his total production came in 20% of the season--and that was December, so it's not like it was towards the end of the year and things were finally clicking. He had a ****ty year, and worse, when I watched (granted only 4-5 times all year), he was completely unnoticeable on the ice. He absolutely deserves more time before anyone writes him off. But last year, it was bad.

But I wrote him off when he was drafted how can I give him more time!?!?

 

[nyr__1994]

I’ve already dove into this topic in the past, but my only recommendation here is to cite how many different teams fall into this category. Nine is a bit misleading when it’s mostly just CHI, LA, and PIT. I get your overall point though, and I agree that it’s necessary for where this team wants to go.

I don’t necessarily think it’s as definitive as top-3= elite talent, but there’s definitely useful models that help forecast draft picks. I think the Rangers utilize these based on their two most recent drafts going for Euros that score in men’s leagues and avoiding juniors. However, that’s a discussion for a different thread

One of those teams has 2 generational talents in Crosby and Malkin, the other two teams have taken advantage of contracts that are no longer allowed in the league so we can eliminate them from a possible team to copy.

So that leaves you with just suck really bad and hope you get a generational talent in back to back drafts....How has that worked out for EDM or BUFF the poster children for sucking? And don't say they are close because until you do, you haven't.

 

[Algernop Kreider]

The flipside is that only zero teams in the last 10 years won the SC without at least one top 5 draft pick (that they themselves drafted).

2018 - Backstrom, Ovechkin
2017 - Crosby, Malkin, Fleury
2016 - Crosby, Malkin, Fleury
2015 - Toews, Kane
2014 - Doughty
2013 - Toews, Kane
2012 - Doughty
2011 - Seguin
2010 - Toews, Kane
2009 - Crosby, Malkin, Fluery, Staal

I don't think Seguin really counts for the point you're making; he just wasn't a player that team was built around. And 7 of the last 10 SCF runners up have done so without a top 5 pick they drafted themselves: VGK, NSH, SJS, NYR, NJD, PHI, DET.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I don't think Seguin really counts for the point you're making; he just wasn't a player that team was built around. And 7 of the last 10 SCF runners up have done so without a top 5 pick they drafted themselves (all except Tampa, Boston and Vancouver).

Hence why they lost

 

[Mac n Gs]

But I wrote him off when he was drafted how can I give him more time!?!?

Glad to see your troll game is back in shape. You must’ve went to a lot of weddings this offseason

One of those teams has 2 generational talents in Crosby and Malkin, the other two teams have taken advantage of contracts that are no longer allowed in the league so we can eliminate them from a possible team to copy.

So that leaves you with just suck really bad and hope you get a generational talent in back to back drafts....How has that worked out for EDM or BUFF the poster children for sucking? And don't say they are close because until you do, you haven't.

Maybe I’m misreading your post, but I haven’t advocated for that, like at all? Go back and check my search history and you’ll see that I’m an advocate for doing whatever you can each season (winning wise, not trading assets wise), and don’t worry about tanking until you’re mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. The new lottery system doesn’t favor tanking teams when you only have an 18% chances at getting the first pick.

 

[kovazub94]

The flipside is that only zero teams in the last 10 years won the SC without at least one top 5 draft pick (that they themselves drafted).

2018 - Backstrom, Ovechkin
2017 - Crosby, Malkin, Fleury
2016 - Crosby, Malkin, Fleury
2015 - Toews, Kane
2014 - Doughty
2013 - Toews, Kane
2012 - Doughty
2011 - Seguin
2010 - Toews, Kane
2009 - Crosby, Malkin, Fluery, Staal

Your list is irrelevant if the logical chain (that I was trying to retort) is: if you draft 1OA then you win SC.

 

[Boruto]

If we had the 5OA pick, we would have drafted Lias anyway so it Lias counts as our 5OA to lead us to the cup.

 

[haohmaru]

Why even post something like this? They were out of their prime. If we had a prime Eric Staal at the same time Nash actually produced in the playoffs, that would be a different story.

Define prime. Crosby won his third cup in his 12th season in the league. Age 29.

Nash in 2015 was in his 13th season in the league. Age 31.

Staal in 2015 was in his 13th season in the league. Age 31. Dude had 42 goals last year.

That's really not a staggering difference.

That AV didn't use Staal correctly is on AV. You had what you espoused (a 1st overall and a 2nd overall) in the lineup at the same time and that magic formula didn't work for the Rangers. Staal and Nash were far from washed up in 2015-16.

 

[Cag29]

Now let’s add Hughes or Turcotte to him.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Define prime. Crosby won his third cup in his 12th season in the league. Age 29.

Nash in 2015 was in his 13th season in the league. Age 31.

Staal in 2015 was in his 13th season in the league. Age 31. Dude had 42 goals last year.

That's really not a staggering difference.

That AV didn't use Staal correctly is on AV. You had what you espoused (a 1st overall and a 2nd overall) in the lineup at the same time and that magic formula didn't work for the Rangers. Staal and Nash were far from washed up in 2015-16.

You are trying to seriously muddy the waters. Weak.

 

[Mac n Gs]

If we had the 5OA pick, we would have drafted Lias anyway so it Lias counts as our 5OA to lead us to the cup.

We had Elias Petersson, rightfully so, as our top-rated forward. He and Cody Glass would’ve been our choices had they not been selected in the prior picks.

 

[haohmaru]

More than a decade after being drafted, and having traded for them, you can't seriously compare that to the Cup winning teams who have built their team through the draft. We also had Hamrlik in 2013. Should we count him as well? In that case, we had 2 "elite stars" in 2013

Way to completely miss the point - multiple top 5 picks in the lineup doesn't automatically convey Lord Stanley to the fielding team. Hamrlik was never elite. Staal and Nash were.

 

[nyr__1994]

Maybe I’m misreading your post, but I haven’t advocated for that, like at all? Go back and check my search history and you’ll see that I’m an advocate for doing whatever you can each season (winning wise, not trading assets wise), and don’t worry about tanking until you’re mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. The new lottery system doesn’t favor tanking teams when you only have an 18% chances at getting the first pick.

I think I was agreeing with you. I look at it like this, are teams good and win the Cup because they have Elite players, or are Elite players making teams good?

But at the same time, those teams with the elite players that were drafted early, also needed other things too, like the cheater contracts.

Back to how that applies to the current state of the NYR. The rules have changed on contracts and on the draft lottery so we are playing on a different field than we have been for the past 10 years. All of those teams that have won in the past are on the decline because they are capped out and getting older. The next generation of championship team/s could be built totally different. Maybe it is a team that can run 4 2nd lines out and 3 sets of D with good/great but not elite defenders.

I think that what the past championship teams did to build their teams is no longer possible/probable, so the question becomes, what is the best way to do it under the current rules?

 

[haohmaru]

You are trying to seriously muddy the waters. Weak.

Which facts do you have an issue with?

 

[Off Sides]

Why does it have to be danced around so much, most Cup winners drafted really early at some point before they won the Cup since the salary cap, there are a couple outliers, some who have some asterisks based on what they traded away, or whatever but I think the point kind of stands, that without a team drafting pretty early at least once, and having that pick turn into something "elite" or near "elite" only like Anaheim, Detroit, Boston have been able to do so so without.

That does not mean it's the only way, but it likely indicates there is some reasoning behind it being that way. 13 cup winners, 8 different teams, of those 8 there have been 3 who are not exactly in conformity yet still have traits more towards they drafted early or hit at a rate not likely or had multiple picks that hit.

The 3 outliers

Without going into much detail

Anaheim hit twice on kind of late round 1 picks with Perry and Getzlaf. They still had Selanne, and they traded for Pronger.,

Detroit already had some players from pre-cap Lidstrom, and they nailed some later round picks.

Boston had two 2nd rounders come out and be way better than their draft slot would have indicated, signed Chara, traded for Horton.

Rangers using all those methods if they can is probably the best idea? Get more picks even if late 1sts and others, hope they win a lottery or move up, scout well and hope for some luck along with. Eventually maybe make a larger signing or a trade. To me at least seems to give them at least a chance to replicate some of that.

 

[aufheben]

You are trying to seriously muddy the waters. Weak.

Well that’s the thing about Cup formulas. The waters get muddy really quickly.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

If we had the 5OA pick, we would have drafted Lias anyway so it Lias counts as our 5OA to lead us to the cup.

If he was 5OA in 2017 we would have taken Pettersson.

But yeah, make up what ever you want to make up.