Speculation: Free Agent Frenzy Part III - Will EK stay or will EK go?

[aufheben]

It's been articulated before. Karlsson will be here 2-4 years before we are contending. He could be 32 with 5 years to go on a team just opening the window. That's $12m on his decline while we need to pay the new, emerging, hopefully impact players. His game is based around his skating and he's had a few, admittedly freak, injuries below the knees.

I can acknowledge that the cap is rising. Our big cap commitment with lundqvist would be gone when we need to start paying the future. He's better than any of the cited players. He carried a garbage team to the cusp. I acknowledge that I'm against moves like this, I was against a desired Gaborik trade after he 4 goaled us, I was against Nash, MSL, and Staal. I see both sides.

Now, this isn't directed at you, but I see lots of posters dismiss potential pitfalls out of hand. "It'll be different this time." It sounds like the kid asking for a dog after every goldfish died after 2 weeks. I'll walk the dog, feed it and play. A month later mom is doing everything.

You bring up good points, but there are two sides to hypotheticals. This is all just my opinion.

Passing on Erik Karlsson is a risk too. Instead of rapidly declining, he could continue to be an elite defenseman well into his late 30’s, as other all-time greats have. Lidstrom didn’t win a Norris until his 30’s, and captained Detroit’s 2008 championship team @ age 38. Gorton signed Chara AND Marc Savard the same summer after Boston had missed the playoffs. Chara won his Norris in Boston and captained their 2011 championship team @ age 34.

 

[Vinny DeAngelo]

Did he? I don’t think Weber ever has been that solid overall. Heavy shot and very strong in many areas. But also pretty limited in others.

He had a 2-3 yr stretch where he was playing 30 mins and shutting guys down.

I think he was the quintessential shut down guy. He lost out a couple times to the flashyness of EK and Subban.

Imo you can’t really talk 2010’s defensemen without mentioning him

 

[Fitzy]

So looking ahead, what kind of value do people estimate Spooner & Zuccarello might have at the trade deadline, assuming NYR are out of playoff position?

If the roster stays as it is right now, Spooner is going to have a lot of PP and top 6 time which might inflate his stats a lot. Could be a good time to sell him prior to having to hand him a big contract.

 

[DutchShamrock]

I don't know how Karlsson is anything like Weber or why we are taking my statement and picking out the one player of the entire group (and he's not even in that group) and using the one player as evidence otherwise.

Again, no one can make an analogy or comparision here unless its identical. People would complain if Daniel was compared to Henrik Sedin.

I'm just trying to say there are lessons to be learned around the league. Guys fall off in their 30s. Weber fell off. That's the only link to Karlsson. I'm not comparing play or style, just position and level of play. Its not a sure thing EK plays elite for half of his next contract. That's all. Montreal is learning a pretty harsh lesson right now.

Karlsson is going to help a team immensely, he would help us a ton. The question is if his peak matches our next window, and when he declines.

There are people entrenched on the idea he will play elite level hockey for 9 more years. That blind faith *feels* to me like people want a player so much their rational thinking is getting cloudy.

 

[brians1128]

So looking ahead, what kind of value do people estimate Spooner & Zuccarello might have at the trade deadline, assuming NYR are out of playoff position?

If the roster stays as it is right now, Spooner is going to have a lot of PP and top 6 time which might inflate his stats a lot. Could be a good time to sell him prior to having to hand him a big contract.

Second and a prospect, First and a prospect

 

[DutchShamrock]

You bring up good points, but there are two sides to hypotheticals. This is all just my opinion.

Passing on Erik Karlsson is a risk too. Instead of rapidly declining, he could continue to be an elite defenseman well into his late 30’s, as other all-time greats have. Lidstrom didn’t win a Norris until his 30’s, and captained Detroit’s 2008 championship team @ age 38. Gorton signed Chara AND Marc Savard the same summer after Boston had missed the playoffs. Chara won his Norris in Boston and captained their 2011 championship team @ age 34.

Point taken. I concede he can be everything and more. I think you said it, and I agree, it depends on the cost. Chara was a free agent and signed for 5 years. Are we talking a trade plus max deal to the tune of 8 + 1 years and $12m per? Are we talking UFA?

 

[DutchShamrock]

What's San Jose's end game? Miss out on JT and then miss out on Karlsson to be the middle man? They can't see Spezza as the missing center. They wouldn't help him go to the west. Would Johnson waive for them?

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

What's San Jose's end game? Miss out on JT and then miss out on Karlsson to be the middle man? They can't see Spezza as the missing center. They wouldn't help him go to the west. Would Johnson waive for them?

Think it was a bad joke by that person relating the situation to the Hoffman trade.

 

[SA16]

Again, no one can make an analogy or comparision here unless its identical. People would complain if Daniel was compared to Henrik Sedin.

I'm just trying to say there are lessons to be learned around the league. Guys fall off in their 30s. Weber fell off. That's the only link to Karlsson. I'm not comparing play or style, just position and level of play. Its not a sure thing EK plays elite for half of his next contract. That's all. Montreal is learning a pretty harsh lesson right now.

Karlsson is going to help a team immensely, he would help us a ton. The question is if his peak matches our next window, and when he declines.

There are people entrenched on the idea he will play elite level hockey for 9 more years. That blind faith *feels* to me like people want a player so much their rational thinking is getting cloudy.

The thing with Weber is there already had been debates about how good he was and that he was in decline prior to the trade and it was basically universally considered an awful trade. He's a guy who had negative shot impacts every single year since Suter left. There was a lot to be concerned about Weber's current level of play before you even consider the other stuff. Weber had positive relCF% every single year with Suter and negative every one without him.

And the Karlsson ankle injury thing is overblown. That's the one major injury he's had in the last five years and he had a short offseason to recover, came back early, and still put up relatively comparable numbers to usual for him on a disaster of a team. (Not related to your post, just saying, this isn't Peter Forsberg with chronic back issues).

 

[NikC]

He’s 100% right.

People here whine and moan for something, then they get it, then they whine and moan about the opposite thing.

People wanted safe picks so we took Lias over a shrimpy kid who had only played HS hockey. People wanted high risk picks so they took Miller and Kravstov. People whine about their reaches but many of the same people didn’t even know Chytil existed when Gorton was “reaching” for him late in the first.

You can like Mittlestadt over Lias and Wahlstrom over Kravstov but to pretend either was clearly the better choice in draft day is just not true and to compare either to McIlrath is beyond ridiculous.

He's right about the whining part, which people do regardless of what opinion you have...

Here's what I'm getting:

If you're down for the rebuild -
You can't be critical of Gordie Clark, regardless of his past decisions, and not only must you give him the benefit of every doubt. .. you have to act like he just drafted the superstar.
Trust is earned! And so is mistrust!
I know he can draft a "good" player. ...
We need more than just good... unless you've resigned yourself.

Same goes for Gorton. Just because he's not Glen Sather I have make plans for the parade? I'm not totally convinced Sathers out of the picture completely when he's seated at the draft table...
Jim Dolan loves Sather.
Gorton has done some good... some.

I'll be sceptical until proven otherwise.
I'm not going to shower heaps of praise upon a franchise that should have taken their medicine years ago.

 

[pld459666]

Would anyone say no to Crosby at 28 years old if he were avail and we had the assests to get him whether we were rebuilding or not?

Because I’d argue Karlsson is an even more dynamic player as a Dman.

He’s a franchise altering piece you build around for the next 7 or 8 years. He’s that good.

Generational talents don’t come along often. He is one.

Yes, I would.

Different position, my mindset is the same. No interest in adding a player that may not be who he is today when the team is ready to really get after it.

The Franchise needed a re-set. For me, that's the end of the story and the beginning of another.

We drafted guys that have not yet inched close to the players that they are going to become. We have NO IDEA who we have, but we are going to trade 3-4 of them for a player (regardless of how good they are) that are 8-10 years older?

If you ask me about Connor McDavid TODAY, That's a different conversation. but absolutely no interest in any 28 year old player today.

I do not believe that to be in the best interest of this franchise today.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Pending the deals we give our RFAs, but this...this is good cap management.

It's almost as if they have a plan and they're following it.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

It's almost as if they have a plan and they're following it.

Sacrilegious! Blasphemy! I'll dare you even state Gorton and Co have a plan.

 

[DutchShamrock]

Think it was a bad joke by that person relating the situation to the Hoffman trade.

Ugh... these tongue-in-cheek, sarcastic tweets without the slightest notion it's real.

 

[LamoTheKid]

I've been thinking it's probably best for the Rangers to keep the cap space into the season. It'll be a really valuable trade chip at the deadline. Probably moreso than it is right now.

 

[SA16]

For reference here's a list of Hart Trophy winners since 1990 (excluding guy still young/active and Hasek) and how they did throughout their careers. Using hart over norris simply because it's easier to compare point totals for forwards and defense has more than just points but you can obviously do both if you want:

09-10 - Henrik Sedin - was ~PPG to age 34 and then a 50 point player through age 37. So he dropped off from Elite 1C to still a useful offensive player.
05-06 - Joe Thornton - PPG player through age 37 and still playing at a 50ish point pace
03-04 - MSL - PPG player through age 39
02-03 - Forsberg - PPG player throughout his entire career but retired early due to injury (and was pretty much always banged up)
00-01 - Joe Sakic - PPG player his entire career through age 40
99-00 - Chris Pronger - Was putting up 50ish points a year through age 36
98-99 - Jagr - No need to even look up stats
95-96 - Lemieux - see above
94-95 - Lindros - retired early due to concussions so not much here. Wasn't the same player after age 29 but was still useful when he played.
93-94 - Fedorov - PPG player through age 34 then turned into more of a 40-50 point player with elite defense in his later years. Again still a very very good player though not what he was.
91-92 - Messier - PPG player through age 35, 60ish point player through age 40. His (and Fedorovs) later years also correspond to the dead puck era.
90-91 Brett Hull - PPG player basically his entire career through age 40, which again ends in the dead puck era.

So of all the players considered "the best of the best" among forwards there's essentially zero of them that every experienced a sharp decline and became a negative, one who really changed his game in Fedorov, and two who had to retire real early due to injury (one of which was still a top player in the league when he retired).

 

[brians1128]

For reference here's a list of Hart Trophy winners since 1990 (excluding guy still young/active and Hasek) and how they did throughout their careers. Using hart over norris simply because it's easier to compare point totals for forwards and defense has more than just points but you can obviously do both if you want:

09-10 - Henrik Sedin - was ~PPG to age 34 and then a 50 point player through age 37. So he dropped off from Elite 1C to still a useful offensive player.
05-06 - Joe Thornton - PPG player through age 37 and still playing at a 50ish point pace
03-04 - MSL - PPG player through age 39
02-03 - Forsberg - PPG player throughout his entire career but retired early due to injury (and was pretty much always banged up)
00-01 - Joe Sakic - PPG player his entire career through age 40
99-00 - Chris Pronger - Was putting up 50ish points a year through age 36
98-99 - Jagr - No need to even look up stats
95-96 - Lemieux - see above
94-95 - Lindros - retired early due to concussions so not much here. Wasn't the same player after age 29 but was still useful when he played.
93-94 - Fedorov - PPG player through age 34 then turned into more of a 40-50 point player with elite defense in his later years. Again still a very very good player though not what he was.
91-92 - Messier - PPG player through age 35, 60ish point player through age 40. His (and Fedorovs) later years also correspond to the dead puck era.
90-91 Brett Hull - PPG player basically his entire career through age 40, which again ends in the dead puck era.

So of all the players considered "the best of the best" among forwards there's essentially zero of them that every experienced a sharp decline and became a negative, one who really changed his game in Fedorov, and two who had to retire real early due to injury (one of which was still a top player in the league when he retired).

Whats the argument? and what player is this in reference too?

 

[FIRE DRURY]

It's almost as if they have a plan and they're following it.

Who are these imposters?!?!

 

[KOVALEV022473]

Whats the argument? and what player is this in reference too?

The argument being, we will trade for Karlsson and then have to relegate him to the nursing home in two years.

 

[JT Kreider]

Hopefully this Karlsson trade is holding the entire NHL up, once it's done we can start to see some real traction. Like a Zuccarello trade.

I could see a team like Florida being interested, they'll probably be backing away from a Pacioretty trade if Borgstrom is the asking price.

Or Zucc retained at 50% to Tampa could be part of the Karlsson trade. We take on Callahan and get Somppi and Raddysh and another pick.

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

So I guess we are going to get very little return and will have to eat both Bobby Ryan's and Callahan's contracts? Or Tampa is taking Ryan to upgrade their size and sending somebody like Johnson to Ottawa?

 

[Richard Banger]

With all this Karlsson talk one of our players is going to get traded under our nose and we won't even notice it.

 

[SA16]

Whats the argument? and what player is this in reference too?

Just showing what players considered to be the best in the league did late in their careers. Of the ones that remained healthy they pretty much just remained at their current level or turned into second liners. Not one of them turned into a bad player that kills you. If Karlsson turns into a 40-50 point player in his mid to late 30s he’s still probably the best offensive defenseman on your team. If he has to retire early due to injury like Forsberg/Lindros you just LTIR him.

If you want a larger sample you can take all the Hart Trophy nominees in those years too but I don’t feel like looking them all up.

 

[JT Kreider]

He’s 100% right.

People here whine and moan for something, then they get it, then they whine and moan about the opposite thing.

People wanted safe picks so we took Lias over a shrimpy kid who had only played HS hockey. People wanted high risk picks so they took Miller and Kravstov. People whine about their reaches but many of the same people didn’t even know Chytil existed when Gorton was “reaching” for him late in the first.

You can like Mittlestadt over Lias and Wahlstrom over Kravstov but to pretend either was clearly the better choice in draft day is just not true and to compare either to McIlrath is beyond ridiculous.

Based on the Rangers track record and their inability to develop an elite high end offensive talent (one of the only teams in the league unable to do so), I think it's quite fair to not fully trust the picks this teams makes.

Especially when it comes to the goalie position. Especially when that position is the strongest part of the entire organization. Especially when this team has had the best goalie in the league the last decade and has nothing to show for it.

It's perfectly reasonable to "whine" about all the talent we missed over the last decade with our atrocious 2nd round drafting.

It's perfectly reasonable to think that some of these picks was just another questionable decision in a long line of questionable decisions.

 

[Webster]

So I guess we are going to get very little return and will have to eat both Bobby Ryan's and Callahan's contracts? Or Tampa is taking Ryan to upgrade their size and sending somebody like Johnson to Ottawa?

Why help the Bolts? Rangers want both Karlsson and Ryan, according to a Swedish paper.