Speculation: Free Agent Frenzy Part II - Who is left?

[Mikos87]

Drop Shesty and 2020 instead of 2019 and I still think thats a hard deal to say no to.

It's palatable, but the market rate on the dollar value of a 1st round pick is a little above $3M. Let's say it's $3.5M. So two of those equals 1 year of Bobby Ryan (this is an in a vacuum argument, but there is going rate for picks as currency).

There's 4 years of Bobby Ryan left, but OTT just picked up $2M on the signing bonus... so instead of the applied tax being 8 firsts, let's say it's 7. Now add in the Rangers going the other way in dollars. Smith, Spooner & Vesey. -4 1sts, as the negative value for Bobby Ryan.

Now you add in the premium for Karlsson. Say instead of the premium roster players, of a Skjei, or Buch, that's been offset by the other bodies. You still have to pay a premium for Erik. It's going to be at-least 2-3 draft picks + prospects, while saving OTT short term and long term money.

One way to make this work without giving up multiple premium pieces? Take Craig Anderson too.

 

[DutchShamrock]

Keep this in mind. Ottawa is $2m over the cap floor. Take out the $14m committed to Ryan and EK, they need to make up at least $12m in cap between 5-6 players. Duchene is doubtful to re-sign in my opinion so at some point they need to make up his $6m. He's a center, so Hayes is probably a target to go their way. They could give him a bloated deal to eat up some cap. Probably a guy like Spooner makes sense, division player they are familiar with.

The rumor before was Ottawa needed more of a player based package rather than straight picks and prospects, meet the cap demands. And who is signing there?

This is the only thing that makes me buckle on not adding a significant player at this phase.

 

[mike14]

The Rangers could also take Clarke MacArthur from Ottawa...LTIR $4.75MM for the next two years.

If you want to flex some financial muscle, this is the place to do it.

I may be way off here, but isn't the Sens issue money rather than cap space? And wouldn't a LTIR be paid out under insurance rather than the club? I would have thought they want a guy like MacArthur because they get a caphit without any money leaving the account

 

[RGY]

Skjei, Howden, 2019 TB 2nd, 2020 1st (top 3 protected) for Karlsson and Ryan. Too much? Too little?

Too much

 

[Mikos87]

The Rangers could also take Clarke MacArthur from Ottawa...LTIR $4.75MM for the next two years.

If you want to flex some financial muscle, this is the place to do it.

Insurance picks that up, I think Craig Anderson fits the bill. $20.5M off of their cash commitments for this year. $28M straight cash for Ryan the next 4 years.

 

[DutchShamrock]

The Rangers could also take Clarke MacArthur from Ottawa...LTIR $4.75MM for the next two years.

If you want to flex some financial muscle, this is the place to do it.

If I'm not mistaken Ottawa values that contract since its insured. Cap hit without the full dollar cost coming from Melnyk. If anything, I see if flipping Horton that way moves the needle.

 

[Alluckks]

Would support signing EK but a big trade is a no go from me.

His prime just isn't going to line up with the NYR window.

You won't have the chance to sign him. There won't be a real chance to sign star players. This JT thing is a once in a decade scenario.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

You won't have the chance to sign him. There won't be a real chance to sign star players. This JT thing is a once in a decade scenario.

I tend to agree with this. I think whoever trades for Karlsson signs him.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

If I'm not mistaken Ottawa values that contract since its insured. Cap hit without the full dollar cost coming from Melnyk. If anything, I see if flipping Horton that way moves the needle.

That's why I said try to get Horton from the Leafs and flip him in the trade. 2 more years at $5.3MM fully insured.

 

[Mikos87]

Keep this in mind. Ottawa is $2m over the cap floor. Take out the $14m committed to Ryan and EK, they need to make up at least $12m in cap between 5-6 players. Duchene is doubtful to re-sign in my opinion so at some point they need to make up his $6m. He's a center, so Hayes is probably a target to go their way. They could give him a bloated deal to eat up some cap. Probably a guy like Spooner makes sense, division player they are familiar with.

The rumor before was Ottawa needed more of a player based package rather than straight picks and prospects, meet the cap demands. And who is signing there?

This is the only thing that makes me buckle on not adding a significant player at this phase.

Yeah they aren't going to draw too many UFAs, and they will be a floor team. OTT is in a very sensitive state from a Opex and win/loss stance. They (Melnyk) made the Duchene deal because they (he) thought the team could make another playoff run. The year prior was very profitable for them in the playoffs... but the team's attendance is in the bottom 3rd of the league, and going to get worse, so he's got to cut the operating expenses. Simply put, that is the only Canadian market that needs to win in order to turn a profit.

None of the other markets have that issue. WPG, with it's smaller arena sells out street space when winning.

 

[bobbop]

Update, MacArthur's contract is apparently 80% insured. Taking him off Ottawa's hands would be worth $950K each year to them. Not insignificant.

 

[Mikos87]

I could see Marian Hossa retiring as a Senator, and the Sens giving up a real asset to acquire him.

 

[Alluckks]

Hayes + 2019 1st is the starting point for Karlsson + Ryan (at full cost)

The rest of what we add in the way of picks/players is the negotiating point

Spooner + ADA

 

[Lundy HOF]

Yea, that's fools gold IMO. Hank appeasement.

But EK65 will still be relevant after hank declines...

 

[Richard Banger]

I just dont see a scenario where we trade for EK and people don't call for GMJG heads.

Its going to be a overpayment and I dont think Gorts is going to pay.

 

[Mikos87]

Update, MacArthur's contract is apparently 80% insured. Taking him off Ottawa's hands would be worth $950K each year to them. Not insignificant.

Definitely not, especially for OTT, but I know they're actively pursuing an Anderson trade. Craig was asked for his no trade list in the last couple of weeks. Islanders would be a good fit for him if he got his game back, but at 37....

 

[Good Intentions]

Why do I find myself confident Gorton has a July date with Karlsson? I believe the Skjei/Howden package (listed above) is both ‘too much’ - but also fair. I’d move on it if that’s what it takes. And I like Skjei.

Would Ottawa bark at Buchnevich? Let’s add DeAngelo and Howden, leaving our Skjei. Probably not enough.

I want Erik Karlsson and I want him this summer.

 

[Rangers in 7]

Heard anything on the Ryan/Lucic front?

Negative sorry

 

[DutchShamrock]

Update, MacArthur's contract is apparently 80% insured. Taking him off Ottawa's hands would be worth $950K each year to them. Not insignificant.

Don't forget that the remaining $3.75m in cap is what they don't have have to pay to reach the cap floor. It does cost nearly a million for a guy not playing but it is almost 4 mil in real dollars they don't have to pay for cap compliance.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I just dont see a scenario where we trade for EK and people don't call for GMJG heads.

Its going to be a overpayment and I dont think Gorts is going to pay.

I think its safe to say that OTT won't get a fair return for EK.

 

[Trxjw]

I don't think Ottawa moves Karlsson to a team that can't offer at least two proven NHLers in the deal. Even if they attach Ryan to it. If they deal Karlsson just to get futures back then they're in major trouble. There's nothing left on the UFA market. Their first rounder is going to Colorado next June. Could you imagine if in two weeks next summer they had to watch Hughes, Turcotte, etc, put on an Avs jersey and then watched Duchene walk out the door? Dear god that would be infinitely worse than the Islanders this week.

 

[Rangers in 7]

Stay away from karlsson unless we sign him, don’t give up any assets for him! We are rebuilding!

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Absolutely not giving up our 2019 1st with Ryan’s contract coming back.

 

[Lundy HOF]

Why do I find myself confident Gorton has a July date with Karlsson? I believe the Skjei/Howden package (listed above) is both ‘too much’ - but also fair. I’d move on it if that’s what it takes. And I like Skjei.

Would Ottawa bark at Buchnevich? Let’s add DeAngelo and Howden, leaving our Skjei. Probably not enough.

I want Erik Karlsson and I want him this summer.

Think Skjei has to be off the table.

I REALLY don’t want to part with Howden but such is the cost of doing business sometimes. Given our prospect depth at center, I’d strongly consider it.

Spooner + Howden + ADA/Pionk + 2nd?

 

[wafflepadsave]

Clearly all you care about is character and not talent.

Fire Inferno!

Think he’s already had a few ‘drafts’!