Speculation: Free Agent Frenzy Part II - Who is left?

[GAGLine]

I still think that the Rangers, if they are in fact in on Karlsson, are doing so to try and flip him. Vegas didn't want to include Glass originally. What if the Rangers can send Karlsson there without Ryan? Does that and a sniff at the cup change GMGM's mind?

Ryan could rebound and turn into a trade able asset with salary retention. 4 years left. That's an easier contract to absorb than Lucic.

This I could be on board with. It seems like some people think we are going to basically get Karlsson for peanuts just for taking back Ryan, and that somehow Ryan's contract won't be an issue after we pay Karlsson 11-12 mil per year.

 

[bobbop]

Karlsson isn't getting to FA

and this proves it

So true.

You want elite talent? This is elite talent.

2018-19 will be his age 28 season. 7 years takes you through age 35; 8 years through age 36.

This will be expensive and painful but after the lesson learned by the Islanders, neither he (or Panarin or Sequin) is ever getting to UFA.

Perhaps this is why Gorton kept his powder dry this week.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

Would support signing EK but a big trade is a no go from me.

His prime just isn't going to line up with the NYR window.

 

[Richard Banger]

So true.

You want elite talent? This is elite talent.

2018-19 will be his age 28 season. 7 years takes you through age 35; 8 years through age 36.

This will be expensive and painful but after the lesson learned by the Islanders, neither he (or Panarin or Sequin) is ever getting to UFA.

Perhaps this is why Gorton kept his powder dry this week.

Anything on the rumor mill that makes you think we could be landing him?

 

[GAGLine]

Whats a buy out of Ryan look like? I'm assuming it would be pretty rough.

edit. 3.8M for first 4 years. 1.8 for the next 4.

so, no

We wouldn't be buying him out this year.

 

[eco's bones]

Pionk/ADA, Buch, Spooner 2019 2nd.

I would do that. I'd give them the choice of seconds including the Tampa 2nd that could turn into a 1st if they took ADA instead of Pionk. Might still need to add.

 

[bobbop]

Would support signing EK but a big trade is a no go from me.

His prime just isn't going to line up with the NYR window.

His prime becomes the new NYR window.

 

[East Coast Bias]

The trade kinda scares me.

I’m ok signing EK, Panarin or Seguin to big deals next year. All in on that.

But the Chance any one of them makes it to UFA is a big risk. Then you have to actually outbid other teams. Probably teams without state taxes too.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

His prime becomes the new NYR window.

Yea, that's fools gold IMO. Hank appeasement.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I would do that. I'd give them the choice of seconds including the Tampa 2nd that could turn into a 1st if they took ADA instead of Pionk. Might still need to add.

Ottawa would never do that.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Yea, that's fools gold IMO. Hank appeasement.

Sorta agree with the former, disagree with the latter.

We're not talking about a very good player, we're talking about a guy who has clearly been the best player at his position for almost a decade. If they want him, this has nothing to do with Hank.

 

[mike14]

I would imagine that if there was a deal, Gorts would be pushing hard to have Smith be part of it from our end

 

[Mikos87]

If you take on Ryan, you have to know that the cap commitment between Ryan and Karlsson is going to be in the $19M range for those two for the next several years. I'm going to start this post off by narrowing in Bobby Ryan.

• Has two first names.
• Okay, effort has been an issue with him, as well as a lack of physical engagement. USA hockey has looked down on him for more than a decade for a variety of reasons, and his own (former) GM has had a lot of concerns about his compete level. In few words: All-World Potential, but you rarely see it.
• He's not fat, but he's poorly conditioned at times, cardiovascular conditioning is the concern. He can't skate for miles, and is a liability on extended shifts.
• Has some PR related challenges for the NYC market.

Now those are the flaws with the player, but I would suggest that there is an a bigger issue with him in OTT from a performance perspective. Look the at the output, it's worse than Nash at a similar cap hit. In the last 5 seasons, he's scored in the teens 3 times, and broken 20 goals twice and maxed out at 23. This is a major downturn for a player that was still in his prime years for chunk of that (26-31). Simply put, those are some categorically atrocious numbers for a guy who was once a lock for 30 goals.


Now: Is he worth being the Karlsson tax? ... Maybe.

The Rangers have the cap space, and frankly don't need to worry about internal space for the next 3 years.

I've said it before, well before the Karlsson rumors started, but Erik is tailor made for this market. If there is a superstar that can be the heir apparent to Hank, it's Erik. Branding, and hockey respect aside, this is the best defenseman in the world on any given night. I personally rank Doughty higher (look at Drew's trophy case, 2 Cups, 2 Golds etc), but in Erik Karlsson, you get offense, entertainment, and a guy who's going to dominate half the game.

So is Bobby Ryan worth the Karlsson tax?

That depends on what's going the other way. Say it's Smith, Spooner, Vesey, DeAngelo, Huska & 2 2019 2nds (conditional 1st that's Tampa's)?

Yeah, I'd take Bobby Ryan for that. There's nothing that stings there except for the draft picks.

Say the Bobby Ryan tax applies to Shesty, Buch, Skjei & the NYR 2019 1st? That's a no deal.

Vegas wouldn't throw in Shea Theodore and Cody "Not Tanner" Glass.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

That makes sense but Nylander is an RFA this summer.
Toronto Maple Leafs - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

I can see them offering something stupid to Matthews. Nylander is worth the max compensation. Next offseason Horton's dead cap space could really hurt the Leafs as it will eat away s good portion of the overage cushion they have.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

If you take on Ryan, you have to know that the cap commitment between Ryan and Karlsson is going to be in the $19M range for those two for the next several years. I'm going to start this post off by narrowing in Bobby Ryan.

• Has two first names.
• Okay, effort has been an issue with him, as well as a lack of physical engagement. USA hockey has looked down on him for more than a decade for a variety of reasons, and his own (former) GM has had a lot of concerns about his compete level. In few words: All-World Potential, but you rarely see it.
• He's not fat, but he's poorly conditioned at times, cardiovascular conditioning is the concern. He can't skate for miles, and is a liability on extended shifts.
• Has some PR related challenges for the NYC market.

Now those are the flaws with the player, but I would suggest that there is an a bigger issue with him in OTT from a performance perspective. Look the at the output, it's worse than Nash at a similar cap hit. In the last 5 seasons, he's scored in the teens 3 times, and broken 20 goals twice and maxed out at 23. This is a major downturn for a player that was still in his prime years for chunk of that (26-31). Simply put, those are some categorically atrocious numbers for a guy who was once a lock for 30 goals.


Now: Is he worth being the Karlsson tax? ... Maybe.

The Rangers have the cap space, and frankly don't need to worry about internal space for the next 3 years.

I've said it before, well before the Karlsson rumors started, but Erik is tailor made for this market. If there is a superstar that can be the heir apparent to Hank, it's Erik. Branding, and hockey respect aside, this is the best defenseman in the world on any given night. I personally rank Doughty higher (look at Drew's trophy case, 2 Cups, 2 Golds etc), but in Erik Karlsson, you get offense, entertainment, and a guy who's going to dominate half the game.

So is Bobby Ryan worth the Karlsson tax?

That depends on what's going the other way. Say it's Smith, Spooner, Vesey, DeAngelo, Huska & 2 2019 2nds (conditional 1st that's Tampa's)?

Yeah, I'd take Bobby Ryan for that. There's nothing that stings there except for the draft picks.

Say the Bobby Ryan tax applies to Shesty, Buch, Skjei & the NYR 2019 1st? That's a no deal.

Vegas wouldn't throw in Shea Theodore and Cody "Not Tanner" Glass.

Drop Shesty and 2020 instead of 2019 and I still think thats a hard deal to say no to.

 

[DutchShamrock]

Yea, that's fools gold IMO. Hank appeasement.

Man, I really take issue with this thought. Henrik, who I think earned an opinion, has nothing to do with the direction this team is or will go. Him being here does not help. If he is mad and wants to go, we get assets. We gain cap. People can't claim moves are made with Henrik's ego in mind when they pass on every single significant name yesterday.

 

[Doctor King Schultz]

Did anyone watch the 8PM Gorton presser? What did he say?

 

[bobbop]

The Rangers could also take Clarke MacArthur from Ottawa...LTIR $4.75MM for the next two years.

If you want to flex some financial muscle, this is the place to do it.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

I think Ottawa would have to eat half of Ryan's salary. Few if any teams would take on the entire contract. This would also help Ottawa get to the cap floor.

May be the Rangers orcastrate a trade for Horton then flip him in the deal back to Ottawa. Goes against their cap but doesn't cost them anything.

Possibly Horton and 2019 #2 for 2019 #7.

The Horton, Hayes, ADA, Lindgren, 2020 #1 and Leafs 2019 #2 for an extended Karlsson and Ryan at 50%.

 

[SirGoose]

agree mostly, but not in regards to a hard window of competition

karlsson just makes the window wider.

2016 is realistically what we looked at as a window closing and that squads last chance to make a run.

is

Kreider-Zibanejad-Buchnevich
Namestnikov-Chytill-Zuccarello
Ryan-Hayes-Spooner
Vesey-Andersson-Fast

Skjei-Karlsson
Staal-Shattenkirk
Claesson/Gilmour-Pionk

really worse than

Kreider-Zibanejad-Buchnevich
Nash-Stepan-Zuccarello
Miller-Hayes-Grabner
Vesey-Lindberg-Fast

McDonagh-Girardi
Staal-Holden
Skjei-Smith

?

Back to what you said, given the cost, Karlsson could be a huge add. Where I disagree is it not fitting a window, I think it just opens it back up again while promoting a winning culutre (not to be underrated).
*ya i know the 2019 roster i posted would not be that way if we made a trade for Karlsson and I made assumptions on people making the team/being effective in a role, but the pieces are there to have a team that can compete and potentially already be younger and better than the last time we competed in 2016, while having a better farm and young talent trying to break in.

*edit was looking to quote hattrickswayze but this site is so god damn broken in firefox at least

 

[E-Train]

Did anyone watch the 8PM Gorton presser? What did he say?

It was a pre-recorded interview with Giannone. Talked about the prospects, camp and how he expects Smith to rebound. Names, RFAs, etc.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Skjei, Howden, 2019 TB 2nd, 2020 1st (top 3 protected) for Karlsson and Ryan. Too much? Too little?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Skjei, Howden, 2019 TB 2nd, 2020 1st (top 3 protected) for Karlsson and Ryan. Too much? Too little?

Probably too little.

Switch Howden to Buchnevich and we're in the ballpark IMO.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Probably too little.

Switch Howden to Buchnevich and we're in the ballpark IMO.

Probably right, but really would like to avoid trading Buch. Would rather trade Andersson AINEC.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

Man, I really take issue with this thought. Henrik, who I think earned an opinion, has nothing to do with the direction this team is or will go. Him being here does not help. If he is mad and wants to go, we get assets. We gain cap. People can't claim moves are made with Henrik's ego in mind when they pass on every single significant name yesterday.

You’re right that was a bit of a hot take by me. The Hank part.

I stand by the first sentence 100%.