GDT: Free Agent Frenzy 2022

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Given our lack of cap space, Puljujarvi seems like the perfect target.

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Nylander - Tavares - Puljujarvi
Engvall - Jarnkrok - Kerfoot
Gaudette - Kampf - Aube-Kubel

If Robertson beats out Gaudette, insert him into the lineup instead.
 
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How about this?

Nylander
Kerfoot

For

Miller
Garland
Schenn

The Leafs trade two years of Nylander for one of Miller and one of Kerfoot for four of Garland. They also get Schenn as a sweetener (maybe add a B prospect if required).

The Leafs also free up cap space and acquire assets by getting Schenn allowing them to trade Holl for sure in another deal. This could also allow for either Muzzin or Sandin to get moved in the right deal.

Bunting • Matthews • Marner
Tavares • Miller • Garland
Engvall • Kampf • Jarnkrok
Robertson • Gaudette • NAK

Rielly • Brodie
Muzzin • Schenn
Giordano • Liljegren
Sandin

Murray
Samsonov

We could improve the fourth line or roll it as it 8 minutes a night and try to see what we have. It could also include Anderson and/or Steeves.

Above that though we fix tbe second line by moving Tavares to the wing and hope there is chemistry with Miller and Garland. We have a very solid third line and our d pairings seem to make a lot of sense.

Change 1 year of Miller to 1 year of Horvat and I'd support it.

Good local kid for the Leafs.
 
Given our lack of cap space, Puljujarvi seems like the perfect target.

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Nylander - Tavares - Puljujarvi
Engvall - Jarnkrok - Kerfoot
Gaudette - Kampf - Aube-Kubel

If Robertson beats out Gaudette, insert him into the lineup instead.

Looks good but unless Tavares and the second line produces more than last year, you are just shuffling the deck chairs. One line teams are easily stopped in the playoffs.
 
Watching the market I'm a bit concerned Dubas didn't leave any space for RFA's. I like the Jarnkrok signing but it does put the leafs in a position that they need to make a trade. Other teams know this.

Just watched players like patches, burns and Petry move for next to nothing. Can't see a team giving up assets for Kerfoot/Holl. Might even have to pay to dump them as GM's know Dubas needs space to sign Engvall and Sandin.

I get the leafs needed to bolster the bottom 6 but Dubas put them in this position. No sympathy if and when he has to pay to get out of it. Again.
 
Given our lack of cap space, Puljujarvi seems like the perfect target.

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Nylander - Tavares - Puljujarvi
Engvall - Jarnkrok - Kerfoot
Gaudette - Kampf - Aube-Kubel

If Robertson beats out Gaudette, insert him into the lineup instead.

or give him Engvall's spot.

I'm really hesitent to pay Engvall I think last year was his career year, he never did anything close to what he did last year prior to last years I don't think he can do it again.

I think Engvall's ceeling is Robertson's floor baring injury.
 
Is Colorado trying to figure out the Erik Johnson situation before signing Naz? Seems like they're the favourites to land him, but wondering if that's the holdup

Things may really pick up once he signs.
They'd be smarter to trade Girard. Byram steps in as 2LD. Johnson expires next year and his cap hit is given to MacKinnon so they don't need to ship anyone out to accommodate his new contract. Girard would have value and bring back a usable piece as well.
 
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Looks good but unless Tavares and the second line produces more than last year, you are just shuffling the deck chairs. One line teams are easily stopped in the playoffs.

So what were the line combinations in the playoffs?

Production wise it worked out like this:

1658068440752.png



Looks like the top 4 players were the top 4 players.

Since Tavares arrived:

1658068613067.png
 

Attachments

  • 1658068583547.png
    1658068583547.png
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So what were the line combinations in the playoffs?

Production wise it worked out like this:

View attachment 570183


Looks like the top 4 players were the top 4 players.

Since Tavares arrived:

View attachment 570186

Top players were our top players but is that saying much given the drop off ?

Tavares' best games were 6 and 7 which is promising but all 4 need to be PPG players if they want to make a serious run in the playoffs IMO.
 
or give him Engvall's spot.

I'm really hesitent to pay Engvall I think last year was his career year, he never did anything close to what he did last year prior to last years I don't think he can do it again.

I think Engvall's ceeling is Robertson's floor baring injury.

No I think he's just getting up to speed.
He's a hockey year younger than Bunting.

I'd really like to see Robertson show he's ready to play a full season against men. Ten NHL games last year and one point(goal), on a nice feed from Nylander.
Like to see a couple dozen of those, certainly would help out the 2nd. line.
 
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Top players were our top players but is that saying much given the drop off ?

Tavares' best games were 6 and 7 which is promising but all 4 need to be PPG players if they want to make a serious run in the playoffs IMO.

At a minimum they have to be PPG.
And when your compensation is in the top 10, you better be earning it when the real season starts.
Top 20 for playoffs.

1658069388100.png


Compensation:
1658069542733.png
 
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How about this?

Nylander
Kerfoot

For

Miller
Garland
Schenn

The Leafs trade two years of Nylander for one of Miller and one of Kerfoot for four of Garland. They also get Schenn as a sweetener (maybe add a B prospect if required).

The Leafs also free up cap space and acquire assets by getting Schenn allowing them to trade Holl for sure in another deal. This could also allow for either Muzzin or Sandin to get moved in the right deal.

Bunting • Matthews • Marner
Tavares • Miller • Garland
Engvall • Kampf • Jarnkrok
Robertson • Gaudette • NAK

Rielly • Brodie
Muzzin • Schenn
Giordano • Liljegren
Sandin

Murray
Samsonov

We could improve the fourth line or roll it as it 8 minutes a night and try to see what we have. It could also include Anderson and/or Steeves.

Above that though we fix tbe second line by moving Tavares to the wing and hope there is chemistry with Miller and Garland. We have a very solid third line and our d pairings seem to make a lot of sense.
I think Miller is the type of player that we’re missing in the playoffs and would love to trade for him
 
Actuals:

Matthews and marner combined for 6 goals (293 PP+ES minutes of ice time).
Tavares and Nylander combined for 6 goals (255 PP+ES minutes of ice time).
Their results in these past playoffs weren't bad but going back to 2018, as you alluded to earlier, Nylander and Tavares have been caved in at ES (44.4 xGF% when on the ice together, both under 41% for the Tavares era). At the amount they are being paid you should expect them to win secondary matchups.
 
My guess is that both Kerfoot and Holl are moved in the next few days. Likely for picks/prospects to free up some space.

I would love for Dubas to have some sort of play in mind to get a top 6 winger like Niederreiter, but that's probably too outlandish to happen. However, adding a couple more depth pieces (especially on the wing) could be beneficial. Someone like a Milano (middle 6 upside) and a Aston-Reese or Motte as a bottom 6 depth piece.

We will see though.
 
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Their results in these past playoffs weren't bad but going back to 2018, as you alluded to earlier, Nylander and Tavares have been caved in at ES (44.4 xGF% when on the ice together, both under 41% for the Tavares era). At the amount they are being paid you should expect them to win secondary matchups.

How about actuals?
I expected at least a 4% return on my investments, but my expectation is meaningless.
History says I should get at a minimum 5% return but again that is meaningless.
Actual ROI is reality.

Actuals from last year Tavares played 2.53 and was only 1 goal behind Matthews and marner combined.

Expectation is meaningless after the event takes place.
Actuals are what happened.
 
My guess is that both Kerfoot and Holl are moved in the next few days. Likely for picks/prospects to free up some space.

I would love for Dubas to have some sort of play in mind to get a top 6 winger like Niederreiter, but that's probably too outlandish to happen. However, adding a couple more depth pieces (especially on the wing) could be beneficial. Someone like a Milano (middle 6 upside) and a Aston-Reese or Motte as a bottom 6 depth piece.

We will see though.

Yes, I think most of what has happened so far have been singles, other than the goaltenders.

Goaltenders are swings for the fences, they could perhaps drop in for a ground rule double, but odds are they are long fly-outs are homeruns.

The other signing seem like safe picks for the ROI.

A Milano type could be more of a risky investment. Yeah, maybe he could play bottom 6, but I think they have that well covered. The next move(s) might be a hard swing for that untapped potential that might come out in a different environment.

1658071911882.png
 
I'm guessing Dubas.

My expectation is Nylander can be re-signed.
Miller is going to the USofA after his contract expires (or so I've read).

So it really is just 1 year of Miller. <--- period
Possibly, but I would hope not.

That one year of Miller during this window is an important one. He changes the look of that second line significantly. He can allow Tavares to shift to wing. He might have chemistry with Tavares. He plays with more intensity than Willy, he PKs.

I am thinking Garland and Schenn for one year of Kerfoot is our sweetener for trading two years of Nylander.

I am not sure Willy is an easy re-sign. He will command a raise and may still not have chemistry or intensity. Same with Kerfoot.

These might be sell high situations and Garland might bring 70% of what Willy does offensively but at 70% of the cost.
 
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Yes, I think most of what has happened so far have been singles, other than the goaltenders.

Goaltenders are swings for the fences, they could perhaps drop in for a ground rule double, but odds are they are long fly-outs are homeruns.

The other signing seem like safe picks for the ROI.

A Milano type could be more of a risky investment. Yeah, maybe he could play bottom 6, but I think they have that well covered. The next move(s) might be a hard swing for that untapped potential that might come out in a different environment.

View attachment 570195
So a Bunting type?

Who is out there with that kind of upside at under $1m? That's kind of what I thought Milano could be.
 
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