GDT: Free Agent Frenzy 2022

[Legion34]

Explain this one to me. I have them projected to finish 3rd in the Atlantic based on EvolvingHockey's projected GAR for next year.

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Well you don’t have sandin in there And you have steeves holmberg and malgin in there.

How would the model know how they would do?

 

[93LEAFS]

Lots of players are getting out of dodge because of our draconian covid measures.

Really a case study for a health care system like Dubai.

The only reason we locked down is because we are an expense to our government.

That's why the Jays managed to sign Gausman or have Barios re-up?

And, I'd rather not be compared to a country that essentially used imported slave labor to build things.

 

[zeke]

They have projections for next year which I’m using, normalized for expected play time by line.

There's no ice time difference between last year and this year to normalize.

I'm not a fan of gar either way, but there's no reason to believe in that kind of drop even if I was.

 

[SprDaVE]

Boston added a full season of Lindholm, Krejci, and Zacha projects to be better than Haula.

Florida will put Duclair on IR, I didn’t even factor him in for next season. They also have 8D on cap friendly.

Kreijci wasn't even in the NHL last season and he's turning 37 years old this season. Zacha for Haula is largely a sideways move with potential to be better. Lindholm should be a solid boost in a full season, especially with their injuries.

So yeah... not sure Boston got any better and probably would project as a worse team based on health and other teams around them.

Duclair isn't out for the season. They will need cap space.

 

[Legion34]

Boston added a full season of Lindholm, Krejci, and Zacha projects to be better than Haula.

Florida will put Duclair on IR, I didn’t even factor him in for next season. They also have 8D on cap friendly.

And if they lose Bergeron? If he hasn’t decided If he is playing. How hard is he training?

 

[Mitch nylander]

Leafs in theory could dump Kerfoot and Holl and make a push for Kadri, and then sign someone like Stralman for a league minimum.

It would obliterate their future cap but... It would be a fun major curve ball

I think Kadri is a little bit of an overkill. Love the guy but I am not paying that price.

I was thinking more of along the lines of Holl to Dallas who needs defence. For a 3rd and a c level prospect.

Sign Stralman or Stone to 1 mill or lower. Sign a guy like Niederreiter or Milano to a 2-3 year deal.

Then run a lineup like.

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Niederreiter/Milano - Tavares - Nylander
Engvall - Kerfoot - Malgin/prospect
Simmonds - Kampf - NAK

Rielly - Brodie
Giordano - Liljegren
Muzzin - Sandin
Stralman

Samsonov
Murray

 

[Americanadian]

A reminder, last year's standings:

FLA 122
TOR 115
TBL 110
BOS 107

Now you can poo-poo those teams losing some of their best players all you want but it still won't make losing Mikheyev drop the Leafs significantly the standings.

How many teams that finished in the bottom of the East will cut into those point totals?

You’re also assuming we get last years version of Campbell and Murray whereas I’m looking at their last 3 years.

The Leafs also had career years from 2/3 of ther forwards and that’s probably not likely to happen again.

 

[Americanadian]

There's no ice time difference between last year and this year to normalize.

I'm not a fan of gar either way, but there's no reason to believe in that kind of drop even if I was.

I’m just telling you my methodology and how it projects. You can’t expect every Leaf to perform like they did last year.

 

[SprDaVE]

I think Kadri is a little bit of an overkill. Love the guy but I am not paying that price.

I was thinking more of along the lines of Holl to Dallas who needs defence. For a 3rd and a c level prospect.

Sign Stralman or Stone to 1 mill or lower. Sign a guy like Niederreiter or Milano to a 2-3 year deal.

Then run a lineup like.

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Niederreiter/Milano - Tavares - Nylander
Engvall - Kerfoot - Malgin/prospect
Simmonds - Kampf - NAK

Rielly - Brodie
Giordano - Liljegren
Muzzin - Sandin
Stralman

Samsonov
Murray

Oh it's 100000% not happening. I just want the chaos.

You're probably right.

 

[JSn0w93]

With Kerfoot UFA after this year it would make sense to move him and try and get a different mix up front.

 

[Americanadian]

Kreijci wasn't even in the NHL last season and he's turning 37 years old this season. Zacha for Haula is largely a sideways move with potential to be better. Lindholm should be a solid boost in a full season, especially with their injuries.

So yeah... not sure Boston got any better and probably would project as a worse team based on health and other teams around them.

Duclair isn't out for the season. They will need cap space.

As I stated earlier - I have Boston 4th.

I’m betting they are going into the season as is - maybe they pay to move Hornqvist.

And if they lose Bergeron? If he hasn’t decided If he is playing. How hard is he training?

They already stated he’s returning.

 

[SprDaVE]

With Kerfoot UFA after this year it would make sense to move him and try and get a different mix up front.

I think his versality and PK abilities is just too much to lose. In theory I'd love to get a heavier player in place and the Leafs could probably replace his role with a cheaper alternative... but it's not that simple. It's also a 50 point player here.

 

[Americanadian]

Well you don’t have sandin in there And you have steeves holmberg and malgin in there.

How would the model know how they would do?

Steeves is projected at 0.4 WAR, Holmberg, Malgin are replacement level. As of today Sandin isn’t in the top 6.

 

[4thline]

975-1M for 1 year on Sandin? I don’t see it going more than 1 year unless they clear Muzzin out.

1.85M for 1-2 years on Engvall? First real NHL season he wasn’t waived or scratched

I'd love that 2 year number on Engvall, ditto 1 on Sandin. I'd love for them to get Sandin signed to the Timmy deal.
Rough numbers ( for me players probably don't agree)
Sandin
1x1 1.4 x 2 no common ground for 3+
Engvall
1.5 x 1 1.8 x 2 no common ground for 3+

So combinations of 2.5, 2.8, 2.9, 3.2, leaving ~0.5 to 1.2 million to either accrue, carry a spare, or upgrade a spot. If they can't stay within that IMO they should pursue a trade (unless its a shockingly agreeable 3+ year deal

 

[JSn0w93]

I think his versality and PK abilities is just too much to lose. In theory I'd love to get a heavier player in place and the Leafs could probably replace his role with a cheaper alternative... but it's not that simple.

You’re right it’s really not. I value Kerfoot quite a bit, but if we found a way to sign Nino for example I would try and make things work.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Big hole is still on LW. We should strongly look at Heinen. Other young forward options to add for cheap, are Steel, Milano, Strome, Balcers.
Could consider Tierney, Rask, Janmark, Jarnkok etc. for added C depth if they come cheap. Some of them likely too expensive.
Does anyone think Radulov has enough left in the tank?? Could play third line RW.

Is Milano still considered young? Was thinking of him as an option for the Devils but seems things have gone a bit sideways in his career.

 

[Zybalto]

Pretty simple - Leafs have lost much less than FLA, TB, BOS.

The Leafs also have both their first-rounders the next two drafts.

Florida+Tampa combined: Zero firsts.

It gives them the ammo to make something happen at the deadline, make an adjustment during the season in case of injury, etc that the other top guys just dont possess.

If we can get better than the 21st ranked goaltending we had last season, 120 points certainly isnt out of the equation but Both the goalies we acquired have their warts.


The obsession with crapping on these new goalies before they play a game is weird despite the Leafs getting the 25th ranked goaltending over the last 3 years (on a good defensive team)...just as weird as crapping on them for the cap when covid affected them harder than any other team in the league. (Anyone up for landing a 10 million player this year with the cap we could have had)

Little rant about the cap (not directed at you)

The projected cap space for 2020-2021 was 84-88 million. Revenues were going so crazy it would have easily been 90+ by this season(maybe even close to 95 looking at how it had been rising).....and yet that somehow gets lost in the stupid talk of "are the reigning league MVP and 2 time RW of the year overpaid?" It's a mind-numbingly stupid analysis devoid of context and people keep saying it (which is awful in todays media culture of always agreeing with each other on a negative bad narrative). So not only did we sign great players to deals that took the rising cap into account and get screwed on it by covid, it also reinforced the narrative they were too high to begin with (which they wernt if covid doesnt happen)

This isnt simping for my team at all. I dont have to here. It's the harsh reality. To ignore Covid when discussing the Leafs cap is not being serious on the subject. Its by far the biggest factor affecting the Leaf cap and it's affecting the Leafs more than any other team in the league by its timing....and theres no fix, we all just have to eat a crap sandwich on this....including Dubas.

 

[SprDaVE]

 

[Stephen]

I think Yzerman will have that team up and running in no time. Liked the Husso, Copp and Kubalik deals, term was on point.

I’d say he’s buying some time for the younger players to break through.

Detroit’s core pieces likely won’t also command the huge dollars our core did coming up due to position, market, prdoduction etc. So they can afford to have a healthy supporting cast.

 

[Burnie97]

I'd look at a trade for this guy if he's available. Not much more then Kerfoot.

Then you can flip Holl too for a forward possibly.

 

[ULF_55]

Detroit’s core pieces likely won’t also command the huge dollars our core did coming up due to position, market, prdoduction etc. So they can afford to have a healthy supporting cast.

Dylan Larkin is UFA end of year and has accumulated 1 playoff goal.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Brown has set the market for Kerfoot I think. At least a 2nd

 

[Apex Predator]

When it’s all said and done the Leafs bottom 6 may not look better than last year but i believe it will be better suited for playoff hockey.


This is how I’m seeing the roster right now for forwards.

Bunting Matthews Marner
Kerfoot Tavares Nylander
? Kampf Engvall
? ? NAK

I think they sign someone for LW that can move up and down the lineup like Kerfoot. Some games they’ll be on the wing for the second line and others dropped to 3rd. Robertson will be given a chance to take that spot and if he does it will push everyone done.

The 4th line I think we stilll will sign a center for that spot. The other left side could be a mixture of Steeves. Anderson or another Marlies.

I don’t see them going for a 3rd line scoring center and moving Kampf to the 4th. Kampf is the 3rd line center.

 

[kb]

I'd look at a trade for this guy if he's available. Not much more then Kerfoot.

Then you can flip Holl too for a forward possibly.

Marino is the guy if they could get him.

 

[SprDaVE]

When it’s all said and done the Leafs bottom 6 may not look better than last year but i believe it will be better suited for playoff hockey.


This is how I’m seeing the roster right now for forwards.

Bunting Matthews Marner
Kerfoot Tavares Nylander
? Kampf Engvall
? ? NAK

I think they sign someone for LW that can move up and down the lineup like Kerfoot. Some games they’ll be on the wing for the second line and others dropped to 3rd. Robertson will be given a chance to take that spot and if he does it will push everyone done.

The 4th line I think we stilll will sign a center for that spot. The other left side could be a mixture of Steeves. Anderson or another Marlies.

I don’t see them going for a 3rd line scoring center and moving Kampf to the 4th. Kampf is the 3rd line center.

I'd probably guess Robertson will slot into the 2nd line and Kerfoot will be on the 3rd line.

I think the Leafs need to add someone like ZAR or Tierney and we're set.