GDT: Free agency madness, brought to you by the letter G

[IranCondraAffair]

True. But the league just came out and said the cap would be more or less flat until the players pay back their loan which is projected to be at the end of the 23-24 season. At that point a fair assumption will be that the cap is around $83.5M. There could be a significant jump then, or not. Problem is, we wont know what the cap is for 24-25 until after the negotiation window starts with Debrincat so it might be a pretty precarious situation. We will see, hopefully Im reading too much into it.

Salary structure projection for 24-25 season

13 F:

Brady 8.2
Batherson 4.975
Norris 7.95
Stu 8.0
Giroux 6.5
Debrincat xxx
Pinto 4
Grieg 2.5
Formenton 3.0
Joseph 2.5
Kastelic 1.5
Kelly 1.5
Crookshank 1.5

Total: $52.125M

7 D:

Chabot 8
Sanderson 7
Zub 5
xxxx 5
Lassi 1.75
JBD 1.75
Kleven 1.25

Total: $29.75M

3 G:

Forsberg 2.75
Sogaard 1.25
xxx 1.25

Total: $5.25M

TOTAL: $87.0M without Debrincat signed.

Lots of assumptions of course, and I'm not sure if the 3rd goalie needs to count but I also didn't add Whites dead cap space. I don't see how it's going to be as easy as people are making it out to be.

A significant player will be coming off the roster in '24-'25 unless the cap goes above $90M, imo.

For the cap to go above $90M we are talking about a + - 8% increase over a projected $83.5M cap in 23-24 (league said increases would be minimal until player loan is paid off so this number is realistic). The last time the cap went up by as much as 8.25% was for the 2011-12 season.

It is not unheard of and the league has been boasting very good numbers recently but a $90M cap is optimistic and hardly something we could rely on. If Debrincat is signed in anticipation of that number and it doesn't happen, we are going to have to do some acrobatics to come down from + - $96M AAV to something around $88M. Thats when the house of cards starts to fall imo and I don't think it's a situation you put yourself in.

^ hence why I think Debrincat should be viewed as a 2 year rental.


*** I inflated ELC to 1.25 to be conservative.

1. Even if Greig played every game from now until 2024-25, hes still going to be on an ELC until teh 2025-26 offseason. So he'll be 894K, not 2.5M

2. Pinto has one accrued season. Even if he plays every game this year, he'll still enter the 2023-24 offseason with no RFA rights. He'll also only have one season (with likely ZERO powerplay time) of production. Plus he's more of a two-way guy than a scorer. He's more likely to get 1.5M-2M on a Bridge than 4M.

3. Formenton likely only gets that if he can do a two year bridge and then gets paid in year 3. Again, unlikely due to his role.

4. Sanderson has the same issue as Pinto. He won't have RFA rights coming off his ELC. That will depress his AAV, He'd have to be putting up 50-60+ points for him to get a 7M long-term extension off two years of production on an ELC.

5. Thomson and JBD are more likely to be cheaper given that they won't have much NHL experience, if any. Marginal difference though

6. Zub, as much as we love him, has comparable player contracts closer to 4M than 5M.

7. Your projection excludes the idea of Bridging Stutzle or Sanderson, which could legitimately happen.

8. You added an extra goalie to that cap for some unknown reason and gave Sogaard an extension he is unlikely to merit.

8. It is unlikely that Ottawa will prioritize acquiring a free agent defenseman for 5M just so they can dump DeBrincat, They would, more likely, dump Zub, Formenton, UFA defenseman, or a half dozen other things before dumping DeBrincat.


My projection:

Brady
Batherson
Norris
Giroux
Chabot
Forsberg
38.380M


Debrincat 8.5 X8
Stutzle: 8X8
Sanderson: 6.5X4 (Hopefully he earns it)
Zub: 4.5X5
JBD/Thomson 1.1X2 Coming off ELC. He'll be unlikely to even have much NHL experience and will be happy for a one-way
Soogard 950 on a one way. Same as JBD. He'll be unlikely to even have much NHL experience and will be happy for a one-way
Formenton 2MX3
Joseph 2.5M X3
Pinto 2MX2 coming off ELC
74.43M

We'd have 10M+ to sign 3 NHL defensemen, two of whom are likely Brannstrom and Thomson/JBD) and 4 NHL forwards, none of which should cost more than 1M each.

 

[Ouroboros]

I think the stop-gap on defense might end up being Calvin De Haan on a 1-year deal. He's local, he'd be cheap, he's played for Capuano in the past - checks some boxes.

I'm not going to pretend I've been watching Chicago hockey lately so I don't know what he looks like nowadays, but his underlying numbers suggest he can still play a bit.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Wonder what's going on in Vegas. They are over the cap with Kolesar and Roy left to sign. Theodore is one of their few guys with good trade value and no NTC/NMC.

They are only over the cap because of Weber's LTIR deal.

After trading Pacioretty I believe they have around 6.5M in space.

May still need to dump Brossoit to fit everyone in but they aren't in big trouble.

I think the stop-gap on defense might end up being Calvin De Haan on a 1-year deal. He's local, he'd be cheap, he's played for Capuano in the past - checks some boxes.

I'm not going to pretend I've been watching Chicago hockey lately so I don't know what he looks like nowadays, but his underlying numbers suggest he can still play a bit.

Garrioch mentioned him as an option.

Apparently he can play both sides too.

 

[GCK]

I hate to break it to people but as you're playing with salaries for the 2024-25 season you'll see that the numbers don't work and Debrincat is likely gone. Even with conservative numbers we are like $4M over if you project ahead and I suspect he'll be the unfortunate choice we need to make.

Not a fun topic to discuss now but let's call it what it is, Debrincat is a 2 year rental with a really tough decision attached to him at the 2024 TDL.

Not correct.

 

[TheDebater]

This is definitely a buyer's market this off season, and I am starting to get more confident that Dorion will make a solid trade for a defenseman without giving up too much.

He might surprise us again with a player we were not expecting but patience is key here, a lot of the returns on most of these trades have been very underwhelming for the sellers.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Adam Larsson (NTC, would need to waive), 3 years left at $4m. Time to get crackin' and call the Kraken.

Would be terrific add. Perfect contract too.

2nd+Sok/Jarv and/or JBD/Thomson

Get it done, Dorion.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

This is definitely a buyer's market this off season, and I am starting to get more confident that Dorion will make a solid trade for a defenseman without giving up too much.

He might surprise us again with a player we were not expecting but patience is key here, a lot of the returns on most of these trades have been very underwhelming for the sellers.

Smart money is still on it happening this summer for sure, Dorion, Garrioch, Lebrun, other "insiders", and even Giroux was quoted about the top 4 dman Dorion is hoping to acquire.

 

[Ouroboros]

 

[Emerica]

First White and now Tierney? I’m definitely going to be tuning into more FLA games this year to keep tabs on these two former Sens studs

 

[Tuna99]

Not sure where to put this, but hard to believe CFL coaches gets paid because it looks like volunteer work.

 

[Sens Vader]

I mean our top 3 targets are still out there

Petry and Marino moving doesn’t change much

Klingberg Chychrun or Weegar come on down

 

[Big Muddy]

This is definitely a buyer's market this off season, and I am starting to get more confident that Dorion will make a solid trade for a defenseman without giving up too much.

He might surprise us again with a player we were not expecting but patience is key here, a lot of the returns on most of these trades have been very underwhelming for the sellers.

Its definitely a buyers market. It was a little disappointing to see the Penguins move Marino and Matheson today. Montreal and Devils didn't give up that much. I thought we might be in on Marino. Oh well, Pierre likely has other irons in the fire.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

CDH is interesting. He would have been a great option if we hadn't done Hamonic. Similar style and results for the past few seasons.

If you do a search of defensemen on 2 year contracts who have played 18+ Minutes a night the last few seasons who play RD, you get: (Bolded are guys on teams teams who need to cut cap, with teams who might be deciding to rebuild, or guys known to be on the block)

1. Myers
2. Pesce
3. Roy
4. Tanev
5. DeAngelo
6. Zaitsev
7. Miller
8. Barrie
9. Goligoski
10. DeMelo
11. Walker

On 1 year contracts:

1. Severson
2. Weegar
3. Dumba
4. Shattenkirk
5. Zub
6. Orlov
7. Holl
8. Mayfield
9. Braun
10. Jensen
11. Hamonic
12. Oesterle
13. Kulikov
14. Gudas

I can do the RFAs later, but as you can see, not a lot of names. Including three of our own guys,.

 

[Yak]

That's what Garrioch said awhile back. Echoed what he said about not wanting to match Fiala's term.

Dorion doesn't want to acquire a player with a long-term contract if he's not needed long-term or won't fit in the budget down the road.

Silly considering Marino is fairly young and almost certainly could be dealt in a couple years if necessary and return assets back.

Marino is not want to sign in Edmonton with McJesus and Drai, I don't think he would want to play here.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Marino is not want to sign in Edmonton with McJesus and Drai, I don't think he would want to play here.

Who cares. He's signed long-term already and doesn't have a NTC.

 

[playasRus]

What about subban at a good price for the bottom pairing

Would do 1.1M x 2 years max.
Mostly as a mentor role.

 

[Ice-Tray]

They have that Tierney White magic now!

 

[Yak]

Seattle Kraken have Larsson, Oleksiak, Dunn, Soucy are guys I would take from them. They would probably take Zaitsev back also. They need prospect and picks and we may be able to get one of them without giving up some of our top prospects.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I have decided that I’m going to repurpose a part of the off season and go with:

We traded Tierney and White to the Panthers for Giroux. Epic fleecing!

 

[Senscore]

 

[Laphroaig]

CDH is interesting. He would have been a great option if we hadn't done Hamonic. Similar style and results for the past few seasons.

If you do a search of defensemen on 2 year contracts who have played 18+ Minutes a night the last few seasons who play RD, you get: (Bolded are guys on teams teams who need to cut cap, with teams who might be deciding to rebuild, or guys known to be on the block)

1. Myers
2. Pesce
3. Roy
4. Tanev
5. DeAngelo
6. Zaitsev
7. Miller
8. Barrie
9. Goligoski
10. DeMelo
11. Walker

On 1 year contracts:

1. Severson
2. Weegar
3. Dumba
4. Shattenkirk
5. Zub
6. Orlov
7. Holl
8. Mayfield
9. Braun
10. Jensen
11. Hamonic
12. Oesterle
13. Kulikov
14. Gudas

I can do the RFAs later, but as you can see, not a lot of names. Including three of our own guys,.

I see Sean Walker on the two year list. The Kings have a glut of RDs (Doughty, Roy, Durzi and Walker). Walker missed almost the entire season last year but I thought he looked great at the World Championships the previous year. I think he could be a decent low cost option.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I have no idea why people have such a hard time just giving credit where it’s due.

There is zero chance that either Brady or Thomas ‘ripped’ into anyone during their exit interviews. They were asked for input and gave it, with Brady also brining a list of extra off ice stuff from the team as an awesome captain.

The budget was increased, and as most people have felt throughout the season; this was the off season to take a step.

Credit goes to Anna, Olivia, the board, Dorion, Trent, Rick, and a host of employees in the background that got all this work done.

Kudos to the agents of Giroux, Norris, and Giroux and Norris as well. Josh makes a point of saying how happy he was that Pierre tuck to his word and got this deal done fast like He had asked in his own exit interview.

Good vibes across the board here!

 

[cudi]

I have no idea why people have such a hard time just giving credit where it’s due.

There is zero chance that either Brady or Thomas ‘ripped’ into anyone during their exit interviews. They were asked for input and gave it, with Brady also brining a list of extra off ice stuff from the team as an awesome captain.

The budget was increased, and as most people have felt throughout the season; this was the off season to take a step.

Credit goes to Anna, Olivia, the board, Dorion, Trent, Rick, and a host of employees in the background that got all this work done.

Kudos to the agents of Giroux, Norris, and Giroux and Norris as well. Josh makes a point of saying how happy he was that Pierre tuck to his word and got this deal done fast like He had asked in his own exit interview.

Good vibes across the board here!

Dorion getting tons of credit lol. People are allowed to make jokes too. Most of the Chaboplan stuff has been jokes that I seen, or in jest because people were not prepared for PD to go God mode, so it has to be something else!

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Not re-signing Paul was a smart choice cap wise. We already have 9 forwards better than Paul, signing a 4th liner at 3 mil isn't viable.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

First White and now Tierney? I’m definitely going to be tuning into more FLA games this year to keep tabs on these two former Sens studs

Two way deal for Tierney, don't buy your tickets yet!

Not re-signing Paul was a smart choice cap wise. We already have 9 forwards better than Paul, signing a 4th liner at 3 mil isn't viable.

Ya, they clearly could have given him that if they wanted. Just a choice, right or wrong.