Proposal: Free agency edition Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic] 5

[Agent Zuuuub]

Nice article about EK and his athletic abilities and training:

Erik Karlsson knows he can still be great, and he doesn’t care who agrees

www.sportsnet.ca

that was a great read. not just for what it takes to be a high performer, but wisdom for life.

crazy that people question this guys character.

 

[coladin]

Here is my spreadsheet for 2024-25 with guesses included.

I guestimated:
Salary Cap up $4M to $87.5M
Pinto at $2M
Kelly at his current salary $0.762,500
Greig at 13th F but he will be a regular player.
Brannstrom Replacement at $2M
Tarasenko Replacement at $0 for now.
Kubalik Replacement at $0 for now.
That leaves about $8M.


View attachment 768630

I would also delete Forsberg and add Sogaard, making cap space closer to 10M,

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

It was never an option. You're gonna have to let it go. They don't have cap space and he really isn't the type of D man they are missing. It's quite obvious with Zubs impact the type of player they need. Sanderson and Chychrun are both more complete players right now.

I think a trade with Seattle around Chabot for Larsson + is a short and long term resolution. The team will be better now and in the future. They have alot of good prospects. The sens system is bare. Gives the team the ability to sign Pinto and have a couple million for injuries. You imagine adding Pinto and Larsson to this team. Would make them way way better.

Do you really wanna make that deal with Larsson's looming ufa status? Assuming he wouldn't be dealt here until the deadline, or more likely, next summer, there's a chance he'd be a 1 year rental.

Too much risk imo.

 

[bert]

Do you really wanna make that deal with Larsson's looming ufa status? Assuming he wouldn't be dealt here until the deadline, or more likely, next summer, there's a chance he'd be a 1 year rental.

Too much risk imo.

I have yet to see any alternatives that solve the sens cap issues address a need and get the team some futures to mitigate the risk of Larsson leaving. They have 2 years of control.

It doesn't really matter anyways Seattle doesn't have any interest apparently.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Capfriendly has something called Armchair GM: Armchair-GM - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

If you prefer doing it by spreadsheet, there is nothing wrong with that. The Armchair GM calculator does make it a bit easier.

If we assume Kelly gets a six figure extension, and Pinto gets his rumoured ask of 2.5M, we have about 8.5M in cap space with a 20 player roster.

That is without qualifying Brannstrom, or signing Kubalik or Tarasenko.

-Tarasenko might cost 6M-7M to extend.

-I would say close to zero chance Kubalik stays. If he is good, he prices himself out of Ottawa if Tarasenko stays. If he is just okay or bad for the rest of the season, he will want a change of scenery.

-I doubt they qualify Brannstrom due to the risk of an arbitration ruling they cannot walk away from. If they do extend him, I don't think he comes in much higher than he is now.

-If Sogaard will sign a 2 year 1M type contract, they could buyout Forsberg and they would save close to 1M in cap for 24-25 at the expense of losing about 1M in cap for 25-26. It would be close to cap neutral, just spread over 2 years. They could also shop him with retention. Forsberg at 1.375M x 1 year should be desirable. In that scenario, if Sogaard is ready and will sign a 2-3 year contract, anything under 1.375M would be cap neutral since Forsberg's retention would be a sunk cost.

The biggest need is a top 4 RHD and a right-handed middle 6 forward to replace Tarasenko (assuming the doesn't sign).

The above is the crop of UFA RHD that as of now will be available this offseason. Keep in mind, a lot of these players will be re-signed and won't make it to free agency.

When you look at that list, it makes it seem very unlikely that we will find a RHD via free agency. Once players re-sign with their current teams, or with teams they end up traded to, there will be very few legitimate top 4 options. Ottawa also into a top free agency destination.

If we want someone like Tanev or Pesce, we probably need to trade for them now and hope they will stay.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I have yet to see any alternatives that solve the sens cap issues address a need and get the team some futures to mitigate the risk of Larsson leaving. They have 2 years of control.

It doesn't really matter anyways Seattle doesn't have any interest apparently.

Not my choice personally, but I do like the player. Too much uncertainty at a time I'd rather not see more added to the pile. And I assume it's not a deal that would go through anytime soon, so 2 years of control is unlikely to be accurate imo. More like a year and a matter of months, but then the questions, distraction and anxiety start immediately upon his arrival.

There's no rush imo, we can address any cap issues next summer or even later.

 

[Qward]

I gave the solution.

Forsberg to the Avs

 

[GCK]

The play is to get a new coach

people keep going on about changing the defense, How many more quality players does DJ need before we are even half respectable?

Karl makes 11 mill. I would take him back but we are fine with the players we have. We need a better coach

Well we have Alfie working with the players on making the proper decisions defensively.

 

[Hale The Villain]

I gave the solution.

Forsberg to the Avs

Don't think the Avs will want a 2.75M backup.

Maybe a team that is in desperate need for a potential starter like Columbus or Buffalo would be willing to take him on.

 

[Senator Stanley]

Don't think the Avs will want a 2.75M backup.

Maybe a team that is in desperate need for a potential starter like Columbus or Buffalo would be willing to take him on.

If he was only playing poorly, you might be able to move him, but he's playing poorly after blowing out both knees. I don't see anyone taking him right now given the risk that this is less a slump and more who he is post knee injuries.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

I have yet to see any alternatives that solve the sens cap issues address a need and get the team some futures to mitigate the risk of Larsson leaving. They have 2 years of control.

It doesn't really matter anyways Seattle doesn't have any interest apparently.

The Senators don't really have cap issues after this season. The cap was completely mismanaged this summer by Dorion.

The issue they have is that for better or worse, Dorion locked down the core with long-term extensions. So if new management comes in and feels changes need to be made to shake up the team, there are very few avenues to accomplish that.

Which isn't to say they should move Chabot one way or another, but it isn't entirely a team cap issue. They have cap flexibility next year and the year after that.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

I gave the solution.

Forsberg to the Avs

Nobody will take Forsberg right now, unless there are cap considerations.

If Sogaard steals his job, they might be able to move Forsberg next off-season with retention. There are never enough goalies to go around. If Sogaard signs a 2 year bridge deal to be the backup, retaining on Forsberg or buying him out would be palatable since it would end up close to cap in/cap out with a Sogaard extension.

If Sogaard plays good hockey as the backup this year, but doesn't do anything wacky like steal the starting job and go on a run like Gustavsson did last year, he is probably a 1M-1.5M cap hit on a 2 year term. If he barely plays in the NHL this season, they might get him at 1M x 2.

 

[Hale The Villain]

If he was only playing poorly, you might be able to move him, but he's playing poorly after blowing out both knees. I don't see anyone taking him right now given the risk that this is less a slump and more who he is post knee injuries.

Yeah he'd have to turn his game around somewhat. It's still very early and he was pretty solid last year on a terrible defensive team, so hopefully he can.

If his contract ended after this season we could find a taker, but that extra year at 2.75M hurts.

 

[GCK]

I don’t get the Forsberg hate, he’s had 4 starts, 1 bad, 1 kind of bad, 1 good and 1 great. Very, very small sample size.

 

[Hale The Villain]

I don’t get the Forsberg hate, he’s had 4 starts, 1 bad, 1 kind of bad, 1 good and 1 great. Very, very small sample size.

Don't think anyone is hating on him, but for the record he has been pretty bad in this tiny sample size. You don't get an .833 SV% even on a bad defensive team without struggling yourself.

Question is whether he's still needed on a team that has committed money and term to a starting goalie and still needs to clear some cap space before the end of the season.

If Sogaard continues his excellent play in Belleville, once Pinto's suspension is up, calling up Sogaard and moving Forsberg could be an option.

 

[GCK]

Don't think anyone is hating on him, but for the record he has been pretty bad in this tiny sample size. You don't get an .833 SV% even on a bad defensive team without struggling yourself.

Question is whether he's still needed on a team that has committed money and term to a starting goalie and still needs to clear some cap space before the end of the season.

If Sogaard continues his excellent play in Belleville, once Pinto's suspension is up, calling up Sogaard and moving Forsberg could be an option.

That .833% is misleading. 4 starts
.905 - Philly
.958 - Washington
.722 - Buffalo
.688 - Vancouver

 

[Hale The Villain]

That .833% is misleading. 4 starts
.905 - Philly
.958 - Washington
.722 - Buffalo
.688 - Vancouver

You can't wave away two terrible performances where he couldn't stop a beach ball.

Our team defense has been awful but he wasn't able to make any key stops in the games against Buffalo and Vancouver.

He hasn't been consistently awful but he's been bad.

 

[DrEasy]

If he was only playing poorly, you might be able to move him, but he's playing poorly after blowing out both knees. I don't see anyone taking him right now given the risk that this is less a slump and more who he is post knee injuries.

That's why he was my candidate to trade (over the likes of Kubalik and Joseph), back when we needed to make cap room for Pinto. Now that his value has probably cratered, he'd be my candidate to send through waivers to make room for Pinto when he comes back. But hopefully he'll player better by that time and we can get some asset back for him instead.

 

[GCK]

You can't wave away two terrible performances where he couldn't stop a beach ball.

Our team defense has been awful but he wasn't able to make any key stops in the games against Buffalo and Vancouver.

He hasn't been consistently awful but he's been bad.

My original post said he’s had 4 starts 1 great, 1 good, 1 kind of bad and 1 very bad. I wasn’t waving away anything, merely pointing out he hasn’t been terrible all season.

 

[JD1]

That .833% is misleading. 4 starts
.905 - Philly
.958 - Washington
.722 - Buffalo
.688 - Vancouver

There's another way to look at those four games

One you will win
One you should win
Two you can't win

You can't have goaltending unable to provide the possibility of winning half the time. It's been our Achilles heel for a few years now.

 

[Hale The Villain]

My original post said he’s had 4 starts 1 great, 1 good, 1 kind of bad and 1 very bad. I wasn’t waving away anything, merely pointing out he hasn’t been terrible all season.

But that kind of goes without saying.

Obviously he didn't have a .833 SV% every game, just like a forward with a PPG doesn't put up exactly 1 point every game.

Overall he's been bad and needs to improve, which I'm hopeful he will.

 

[Big Muddy]

I gave it a whirl. Yellow cells are TBD. 22 player roster.

 

[Big Muddy]

Revised with minor edits. 2024-25 22-player roster. $5 m set aside for 2nd line LW.

 

[GCK]

But that kind of goes without saying.

Obviously he didn't have a .833 SV% every game, just like a forward with a PPG doesn't put up exactly 1 point every game.

Overall he's been bad and needs to improve, which I'm hopeful he will.

He had 1 legitimately bad start.

 

[Cosmix]

I would also delete Forsberg and add Sogaard, making cap space closer to 10M,

I will keep Forsberg in the sheet as he has an NHL contract. If we trade him, we can add Soogard.