Proposal: Free agency edition Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic] 5

[Micklebot]

They can avoid losing another asset to tie to a contributing player by trading Brannstrom too. Solves the Pinto problem and gives the team time to evaluate Chabot (god willing under a different coach) before you look at trading the guy for pennies or 34 year old's.

Personally I just don't think this is an in-season move. The Sens AND any potential trade partners will want to see how he comes back from injury and by that point he'll almost be an early trade deadline addition for the team. I strongly doubt we'd be able to upgrade in season and would be happy running the wonky ill-fitting but talented defence until at least the summer.

Moving Chabot mid season is a pipe dream, that's not the type of move you can get good value on at this stage of the season.

Moving either Kubalik or Brannstrom would likely be far easier, possibly even return decent value, and make the room for Pinto, getting us to next season when our cap issues are no longer dire.

If we want to shake up the backend, the time to do it is in the offseason, I'm not convinced it makes us a better team, but it's worth exploring if the right deal is there. Where I have an issue is the claim that there's no way of keeping him moving forward, a couple people have posted rosters that fit him in and look very competitive.

 

[bert]

They can avoid losing another asset to tie to a contributing player by trading Brannstrom too. Solves the Pinto problem and gives the team time to evaluate Chabot (god willing under a different coach) before you look at trading the guy for pennies or 34 year old's.

Personally I just don't think this is an in-season move. The Sens AND any potential trade partners will want to see how he comes back from injury and by that point he'll almost be an early trade deadline addition for the team. I strongly doubt we'd be able to upgrade in season and would be happy running the wonky ill-fitting but talented defence until at least the summer.

So trading Brannstrom wont completely fix the cap problem. They'll still be too tight against it to carry a full roster. They likely have to tie an asset to him or get nothing back. They could also have to lose another player on waivers so they have to have players going up and down all the time.

They don't address this teams biggest need which is another top 4 rd. They kick the can down the line to a decision they'll have to make anyways and have less leverage after July 1st.

Brannstrom really is the only other option. I prefer dealing Chabot due to all the factors above.

Moving Chabot mid season is a pipe dream, that's not the type of move you can get good value on at this stage of the season.

Moving either Kubalik or Brannstrom would likely be far easier, possibly even return decent value, and make the room for Pinto, getting us to next season when our cap issues are no longer dire.

If we want to shake up the backend, the time to do it is in the offseason, I'm not convinced it makes us a better team, but it's worth exploring if the right deal is there. Where I have an issue is the claim that there's no way of keeping him moving forward, a couple people have posted rosters that fit him in and look very competitive.

At the expense of two top 6 forwards. To keep a 3rd pairing d man. I can't get behind this logic.

 

[DueDiligence]

that's without relying on Greig or Jarventie stepping up, if either can be a top 6 winger suddenly there's an extra 5 mil in the budget to upgrade elsewhere or fund resigning Chychrun.

I have a feeling that in 20 months if Giroux is wanted by the team and he wants to re-up, he will come in on a very team friendly deal. Probably $3 million or less. His career earnings by then will be $100 million and money will be secondary to playing and winning. The $3 million the Senators will save will go directly to Chychrun and put him in the $8 million range.

 

[Micklebot]

At the expense of two top 6 forwards. To keep a 3rd pairing d man. I can't get behind this logic.

This is such a dishonest way to frame the situation, Chabot is second on the team in TOI/GP (and that's only because the team has really leaned on Chychrun while all of Chabot and Zub and Brannstrom were out), and will at worst be 3rd moving forward. Full projected lineups with callup room have been posted with competitive top 6s that don't sacrifice the third line to make it happen, we aren't sacrificing two top 6 players, we are talking about building around a core of Stu, Tkachuk, Norris, Batherson, Greig, and Pinto up front, Sanderson, Chychrun, Chabot and Zub on the backend.

We can't count on Tarasenko coming back, or Giroux continue to play at this level as a 38 yr old and onward, so if it's not them moving forward well can make do, if they do chose to come back/continue to play at a high level, that's great, but the point isn't to keep them specifically but rather to build a competitive roster.

If there's a move out tgere that can be made where we trade Chabot and it makes the team better, nobody is saying we shouldn't consider it but we don't need to force matters,

 

[Alf Silfversson]

So trading Brannstrom wont completely fix the cap problem. They'll still be too tight against it to carry a full roster. They likely have to tie an asset to him or get nothing back. They could also have to lose another player on waivers so they have to have players going up and down all the time.

They don't address this teams biggest need which is another top 4 rd. They kick the can down the line to a decision they'll have to make anyways and have less leverage after July 1st.

Brannstrom really is the only other option. I prefer dealing Chabot due to all the factors above.


At the expense of two top 6 forwards. To keep a 3rd pairing d man. I can't get behind this logic.

We're accruing (once kind of healthy) cap space as the season goes on. Pinto will only get prorated salary. Plus if he holds out for what he wants in salary after his suspension he is a top 5 dumbest MFer in North America.

Brannstrom or Kubalik moving out is enough unless Pinto is tone deaf, stupid or insane. Or all three.

 

[BondraTime]

We're accruing (once kind of healthy) cap space as the season goes on. Pinto will only get prorated salary. Plus if he holds out for what he wants in salary after his suspension he is a top 5 dumbest MFer in North America.

Brannstrom or Kubalik moving out is enough unless Pinto is tone deaf, stupid or insane. Or all three.

Pinto's cap isn't prorated, it's the opposite. His cap hit will be higher than what his actual AAV is this season. If he signs at 2.5 in Jan his cap hit will be ~3.75. If it's just for 1.0, the cap hit is ~1.5

 

[GCK]

Pinto's cap isn't prorated, it's the opposite. His cap hit will be higher than what his actual AAV is this season. If he signs at 2.5 in Jan his cap hit will be ~3.75. If it's just for 1.0, the cap hit is ~1.5

That’s not true if he signs a 1 year deal.

 

[Micklebot]

Pinto's cap isn't prorated, it's the opposite. His cap hit will be higher than what his actual AAV is this season. If he signs at 2.5 in Jan his cap hit will be ~3.75. If it's just for 1.0, the cap hit is ~1.5

I'm not sure how they'll deal that out since he apparently isn't eligible to be signed as a result of the suspension, or at least that's how I understood it.

There isn't really a precedent so my assumption is they'll do as you suggest, but for arguments sake, if we could sign him today at 900k or whatever, but the league blocks it, only to allow us to give him the same contract in Jan but at an artificially inflated cap hit, that would be a little disappointing.

 

[BondraTime]

That’s not true if he signs a 1 year deal.

I thought it was, but could definitely be wrong

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Pinto's cap isn't prorated, it's the opposite. His cap hit will be higher than what his actual AAV is this season. If he signs at 2.5 in Jan his cap hit will be ~3.75. If it's just for 1.0, the cap hit is ~1.5

I'm pretty confident that he will not get $2M for playing 41 games this year. I could be wrong but that seems off to me. I think he'll get $2M AAV for this year but lose half of that to his suspension.

 

[BondraTime]

I'm pretty confident that he will not get $2M dollars for playing 41 games this year. I could be wrong but that seems off to me. I think he'll get $2M AAV for this year but lose half of that to his suspension.

He loses the money, the cap hit is still inflated.

Obviously no precedence with a suspended player without a contract holding out into the halway point, NHL may be doing things different here.

It's incredibly odd to me that the team is allowed to have Pinto's suspension already kick in without having a contract in place, but that's better for us.

 

[Micklebot]

That’s not true if he signs a 1 year deal.

I believe you are correct, Galchenyuk as an example signed late Nov 2022, and there was no adjustments to his cap hit with Colorado last year.

 

[BondraTime]

I believe you are correct, Galchenyuk as an example signed late Nov 2022, and there was no adjustments to his cap hit with Colorado last year.

I thought it was different for UFA's/RFA's

UFA's signing midseason always cost the prorated amount of the 186 days, the RFA's was different so teams can't job the cap with a protected player

 

[GCK]

I thought it was, but could definitely be wrong

He can sign for whatever we have in cap space and the face value would be about double. If we only have 500K in accumulated cap space he can sign a 1M ish 1 year deal. The catch is we have to accumulate the cap space between now and Jan 21st which will be an issue.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

He loses the money, the cap hit is still inflated.

Obviously no precedence with a suspended player without a contract holding out into the halway point, NHL may be doing things different here.

It's incredibly odd to me that the team is allowed to have Pinto's suspension already kick in without having a contract in place, but that's better for us.

I think it's more like a deadline acquisition. His AAV will be $2M but it's paid on a game by game basis. Adding a $5M guy at the deadline for the last 1/5th of the season only requires $1M in cap space.

I envision Pinto as having that effect on the cap. I could be wrong though.

 

[Micklebot]

I thought it was different for UFA's/RFA's

I can't imagine why, but I suppose that's possible.



Took a look for an example, Anthiasou signed Oct 23rd, 10 games into the season as an RFA, and his cap hit matches his contract value.

Took a deeper look, cap friendly had him with a cap hit of 1.3875, but an accumulated cap hit to the team of 1.245008, so the 19 days he missed were never counted against the teams cap.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

He can sign for whatever we have in cap space and the face value would be about double. If we only have 500K in accumulated cap space he can sign a 1M ish 1 year deal. The catch is we have to accumulate the cap space between now and Jan 21st which will be an issue.

That's my impression as well. We still need to move someone out for sure but Kubalik or Brannstrom should be enough. Depending on when we move them it could be more than enough.

 

[BondraTime]

I can't imagine why, but I suppose that's possible.



Took a look for an example, Anthiasou signed Oct 23rd, 10 games into the season as an RFA, and his cap hit matches his contract value.

I guess we can only sign Pinto to a year deal now then, multi year can't be done

 

[bert]

This is such a dishonest way to frame the situation, Chabot is second on the team in TOI/GP (and that's only because the team has really leaned on Chychrun while all of Chabot and Zub and Brannstrom were out), and will at worst be 3rd moving forward. Full projected lineups with callup room have been posted with competitive top 6s that don't sacrifice the third line to make it happen, we aren't sacrificing two top 6 players, we are talking about building around a core of Stu, Tkachuk, Norris, Batherson, Greig, and Pinto up front, Sanderson, Chychrun, Chabot and Zub on the backend.

We can't count on Tarasenko coming back, or Giroux continue to play at this level as a 38 yr old and onward, so if it's not them moving forward well can make do, if they do chose to come back/continue to play at a high level, that's great, but the point isn't to keep them specifically but rather to build a competitive roster.

If there's a move out tgere that can be made where we trade Chabot and it makes the team better, nobody is saying we shouldn't consider it but we don't need to force matters,

Dishonest? I am not sure if you understand what this word means. Because you're more guilty of it than anyone. You're showing a line up that has Chabot in it and Giroux and Kubalik are gone to vs cap compliant. How else should I evaluate that?

So do you believe that Chabot is the teams most important and best defender. That's the argument you are presenting when saying his toi is the highest thus justifying your postion that he should not be traded. Which really makes me question. If you are watching the same games the rest of us are.

I believe this team is absolutely better with another RD in the mold of Zub than Chabot. You may disagree and that's fine. So yes the goal is to get better solve the cap problems and add futures.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

The amount of time they have control is not debatable. It's 2 years, Ottawa needs to make a decision on Chabot before next summer that's when his NTC. Kicks in. There is absolutely a rush this team has to find a solution to its cap issues in the next month. Once Chabot is back they are over the cap. They have to trade someone. They have to find a way to get Pinto in and they have to be able to run this team properly. You can't have no cap room. They'll be playing short or with players playing hurt all year. You can't be competitive like this. One last present from Dorion.

Paying assets to dump a player is a non starter right now. Whether people want to come to terms with it or not they are going to have to make a choice of Chychrun or Chabot. I think it's quite clear who the more valuable player is.

They have an issue right now that needs to be addressed. Chabot really isn't a fit here anymore. Not at his cap hit and not at his position.

They quite clearly need a physical RD. He can get them that along with some futures and saves the teams cap issue.

Well, if it happened today, yes. If it happened say at or near the deadline, it never feels like 2 years of control. You're months away from trying to sort out an extension. I do like Larsson, just would want it to be a summer deal with an extension as part of it over a in season deal hoping you can sign him, while sending out a 4 year contracted excellent dman to do it.

Either way, I'm not opposed to the line of thinking of changing up the mix if the right deal could be had. I don't know that it would be wise based on age, but I liked the idea of a Chabot for Weegar deal.

Speaking of contract uncertainty, it makes me a little nervous to send Chabot out without having Chychrun extended yet. I'm confident it could be done, but I'd rather have it on paper before moving Chabot.

And all that said, I don't think there's as much urgency as you do. The mix is not that bad when everyone is healthy. I think there's room for them to feel this out a bit and maybe insulate strength with the 5/6 guys instead. Brannstrom leaving is just a matter of time, Hamonic is temporary, and JBD isn't a core piece, so lots of movement could happen on the bottom pairing with effective defensive play and size added there.

 

[Bileur]

I just don’t see them moving Chabot unless the season implodes and they feel they need to fundamentally change the dynamics in the room.

 

[Micklebot]

Dishonest? I am not sure if you understand what this word means. Because you're more guilty of it than anyone. You're showing a line up that has Chabot in it and Giroux and Kubalik are gone to vs cap compliant. How else should I evaluate that?

So do you believe that Chabot is the teams most important and best defender. That's the argument you are presenting when saying his toi is the highest thus justifying your postion that he should not be traded. Which really makes me question. If you are watching the same games the rest of us are.

I believe this team is absolutely better with another RD in the mold of Zub than Chabot. You may disagree and that's fine. So yes the goal is to get better solve the cap problems and add futures.

Bert, I pretty clearly explained why your framing was dishonest. Reasonable people can disagree on how best to build a winning team, there's nothing dishonest about thinking the team is better with Chabot than we are by trading him for a lesser RHD and gaining some additional depth as a result.

What I don't think is reasonable or honest is framing the 2nd leading min getter on this team as a 3rd pair Dman. It's creating a false equivalence to diminish the impact Chabot has.

Its fine, you don't agree with me on whether keeping Chabot is right for this team, and I'm fine with that, but it's quite clear that you have no problem with selectively framing things in a way that misrepresents reality, and if that's what you're going to do, it's not really worth my time.

 

[BondraTime]

Giroux is in every future lineup that has been posted isn't he?

They don't need to lose Giroux to be cap compliant whatsoever, just the usual slight decrease in salary for a retirement deal.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Pinto's cap isn't prorated, it's the opposite. His cap hit will be higher than what his actual AAV is this season. If he signs at 2.5 in Jan his cap hit will be ~3.75. If it's just for 1.0, the cap hit is ~1.5

The only caveat to me is if they make an adjustment due to the circumstances. I think what you said is correct .

How is the cap hit calculated for one year contracts signed after the start of the season?​

If a player is signed to a one year contract after the start of the NHL season, that contract is subject to a unique cap hit calculation.

A notable aspect of the calculation is that the cap hit value is increased.

The cap hit is calculated as follows:
Cap hit = Signing bonus × total season days / season days remaining + base salary

Example:
Brogan Rafferty of the Vancouver Canucks signed a one year ELC on April 2, 2019. The contract has a base salary of $832,500, a signing bonus of $92,500, and there were 4 days remaining in the 186 day season:
Cap hit = $92,500 × 186 / 4 + $832,500
Cap hit: $5,133,750

NHL CBA FAQ - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps re RFA

Cap hit = Signing bonus × total season days / season days remaining + base salary

Strange how the signing bonus balloons the Cap hit.. Plugging the numbers in here it would end up as the base salary if the signing bonus is 0

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

That's not accurate actually. They're going to have the exact same issues. Where do you think the money is going to come from to extend Chychrun? Fit Pinto in and carry a 22 man roster. It aint there. All of the extra money is going to Sanderson.

Chabots injury opened up space. In order for this team to carry a full roster someone has to be ON LTIR. You can't win this way.

Maybe later on I will do a deep dive into the cap over the next 3-5 years.

After the 23-24 seasons, the Senators don't really have cap issues. They have a lot of cap flexibility. They also have most of their key roles signed for a while. Chychrun is one of the few big raises.

If you want to make an argument that they aren't going to win with this core, and their issue is the cap they have committed to players they cannot win with, that's a different argument. If that is the argument, and they need to shakeup the core, Chabot might be the most logical player to move on from. With that said, it doesn't really help cap wise when the cost of a top 4 RHD is likely going to be in the 5M+ range. Top 2 will be just as expensive as Chabot, if not more.

Even the example you brought up a few pages back, Larsson. He's in a similar spot that Chychrun was. He is underpaid now, but if we acquire him and want to keep him we likely have to sign him to a contract with a cap hit anywhere from 6M-8M. 6.XXM seems more realistic based on other comparable contracts, but we also don't know how the cap possibly going up to 87.5M will affect prices, and how his willingness or unwillingness to sign in Ottawa might inflate his price.

The short of it is that while we don't have cap issues after this season, trading Chabot doesn't directly help the cap by much because he will have to be replaced in the lineup by a comparable top 4 who ideally is right handed.