Serious question that I'm asking strictly out of curiosity:
Do you guys believe that by swapping Chychrun for Roy/Pesce, Tarasenko for Labanc and Forsberg for Brossoit that this will be a playoff team?
I feel like there's still so many question marks there. Norris more likely than not just another year of getting back to speed and/or more injuries. I would say it's more likely he gets injured again than not to one of his shoulders. Giroux getting older. The 4rth line essentially same as last year. The goaltending is still a question mark. Chabot/Zub having their yearly injuries. Not much more "leadership" than last year in that group either.
One of the biggest issues with this team is there's no depth anywhere. When the inevitable injuries come this team gets exposed more than they should. The top end is good, but not good enough to overcome the lack of support at the bottom of the lineup. The goalies will not save us. It's too easy to neutralize this team the way it's contructed.
Most teams that are in a similar position to us (I.E. coming out of a long rebuild) still have young players coming in that can solidify the depth either at forward or on D. This team doesn't have many of those pieces coming. If we count Kleven in the lineup, it's probably Ostapchuk and that's it. On a good team Greig or Joseph are playing 3rd or 4rth line minutes. At least one of those guys will be playing in the top 6 every night. Teams like Buffalo and Detroit are at a similar place to us in their rebuilds but have a lot more coming in the pipeline.
For the record, I think this might be the most reasonnable/realistic lineup prediction I've seen here. I would not be surprised at all if the lineup looks like this come October. Obviously maybe not the exact same names but structurally it seems like the most likely scenario. I think this roster screams bubble team for now and for the next few years. No way this roster actually competes for a cup in the next 3-4 years IMO.
I think last year we underperformed for a few reasons;
1. Goaltending - it was awful
2. Poor roster makeup - On D, with only one top 4 RHD we could never really get our pairs working. Chabot and Chychrun never clicked, and we had nobody to slot up if/when Zub got hurt. We also lacked the right pieces for a good PK, resulting in Brannstrom as a regular. At forward, we never really had a matchup line, Kubalik just isn't a bottom 6 guy, so he stuck out like a sore thumb. Tank was great, but he isn't a matchup guy. Ideally we needed someone to put out there when the oppositions elite guys jumped over the boards, and we really didn't have that.
3. Suspension to Pinto/cap issues. We couldn't address anything because we were tight to the cap, and Pinto was out for half the season to suspension. Any depth advantage we thought we might have went out the door.
4. Coaching - DJ imo gets too much flak for our failures, but he was not a details guy, and we were miserable when it came to the details.
Injuries are to be expected, I think we had a normal level of injuries, though Norris was clearly not right before blowing out his shoulder, so I'm not sure he should count as healthy, and Stu was clearly struggling with the wrist injury he disclosed after the sesaon.
What can we expect next season?
I think we can expect a bounce back for Stutzle, a healthy Stu puts up 35+ goals, he's a shooting threat on the PP and he opens up the ice for his teammates.
I think we can expect much better depth at C. With Pinto available from day one, even if Norris again has a slow start, we're way ahead of last season. If Norris comes back looking healthy and ready, that's just gravy. We'll still have Greig who can slot in at center or wing, and he'll have that extra year of experience under his belt.
Assuming we get that RHD, we should have better balance on the backend. That should mean fewer bad matchups (Sanderson and Zub can't play every shift, but if you have a Tanev/Pesce/Roy out there at least you still have that responsible defensive guy). It also should mean a better constructed PK, Brannstrom did his best, but he's not a net clearer, which you need on the PK. It also improves resiliency if there's an injury on the right side. When Zub was out, we had nothing to backfill with for the role he fills, having a Tanev/Pesce/Roy mittigates a bit of that.
It's hard to pin down how much of a difference coaching will make, goaltending needs to be better if we are going to be a playoff team. Is Broissoit enough to make that happen, idk, but if we can get 900 team sv%, that's 29 fewer goals on a goalie, league average sv% was .903 so .900 shouldn't be a big ask, only 10 teams failed to meet that threshold but even a team sv% of .895, a threshold only 3 other teams failed to meet would mean a 17 goal drop.