Proposal: Free agency edition Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic] 5

[Sensinitis]

How much cap does waiving Kubalik relieve? Is it his entire cap hit?

 

[Senator Stanley]

How much cap does waiving Kubalik relieve? Is it his entire cap hit?

$1.15M is the max relief you get for sending a player in the minors. If a player makes less than that (e.g. MacEwen) it's their entire cap hit.

 

[Senator Stanley]

Not a thing. For all the things, PD has never shown to be attached to guys he’s traded for. He’s constantly shown the ability to move on from guys he’s traded for that don’t work.

People just like to blindly do their diss thing, it’s just back ground noise. The reality is that he’s made some bad moves, which we can all wish don’t happen, or happen less or whatever, but he moves on quick enough thankfully.

If there is a deal that benefits the team he’ll make it regardless, especially given that Kubalik wasn’t a target in the DBC deal, it was the 1st round pick. Also, we should stop pretending that he’s making decisions on his own now. He has an AGM, a POHO, and an involved owner. There is feedback everywhere.

If the hold up for a trade is balking at giving a sweater I wholly support that. Pinto can sit, and we can wait things out until we can trade one of the three as an asset.

Stop digging is paramount.

We watched four years of Nikita Zaitsev on the first pairing, so no, he doesn't always move on from his mistakes.

That said, I don't think Dorion is the kind of GM who would hold onto Kubalik because he's attached to a guy he acquired (you're right that we've seen him move fast after making some other mistakes - Dadonov, Stepan, etc.). But I could definitely see Dorion being reluctant in this moment - with a new owner and a new boss watching him - to trade Dominik "seven goals less than Debrincat" Kubalik, given how bad the optics would be for him personally. He's a survivor, and right now he's fighting for his job.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

I think this is a situation where there is probably truth to there being a deal in place to clear the cap, but they will trade Pinto because the cost of both clearing cap AND paying Pinto above market value is too much in combination.

If Pinto had a softer stance it would make giving up a 1st or 2nd to get him signed easier to swallow. Or if they didn't have to give up a possible 1st or 2nd round pick to clear cap, it might make overpaying him on the AAV more tolerable. Both in combination is a lot of value and assets out the window.

They will get back an NHL ready 1st round type prospect who is on their ELC, or a young NHL player cost controlled on their second contract (Not Lafreniere as much as we throw his name around, but think that kind of contract situation).

I would lean to it being someone on their ELC, because if it is someone in the 2M ballpark, they still have to pay dump a contract.

That, or Scott Laughton with salary considerations. Then the logic is, Laughton is a better physical matchup 3C than Pinto right now when the Senators are trying to win, and even know Pinto will eventually become 2C, the Senators will lose him for futures in 2 years anyways because Bruce Garrioch says his agent is difficult.

 

[aragorn]

We watched four years of Nikita Zaitsev on the first pairing, so no, he doesn't always move on from his mistakes.

That said, I don't think Dorion is the kind of GM who would hold onto Kubalik because he's attached to a guy he acquired (you're right that we've seen him move fast after making some other mistakes - Dadonov, Stepan, etc.). But I could definitely see Dorion being reluctant in this moment - with a new owner and a new boss watching him - to trade Dominik "seven goals less than Debrincat" Kubalik, given how bad the optics would be for him personally. He's a survivor, and right now he's fighting for his job.

Not sure how many NHL GMs who seem to have a pretty good team would be fighting for their jobs, looks more like just some fans who want him out for past mistakes. Now this isn't to say that the new owner & Staois might not want to operate the GM position or bring in their "MAN" they might, but I'm not sure how that would look given how well this team has looked so far this season in preseason & regular season. Also not sure how many fans Dorion has in this city, but most love this team this yr.

Ottawa Senators top Canadian teams in first NHL Power Ranking of the season | TSN

Despite sitting middle of the pack in goals against, the Senators look much improved defensively and look like a legitimate threat to earn a playoff spot this season.

www.tsn.ca

 

[dumbdick]

Doesn't really help. If you waive and demote Kubalik you have about 2.1M to offer Pinto which is still not enough according to what the insiders have reported. I think if it were that simple it would be done.

I am now of the opinion that the Senators aren't going to be able to get Pinto signed. Likely the ask from the handful of teams willing to take Joseph/Kubalik is just too high to justify going ahead with it. How much would you be willing to sacrifice to get this guy into the lineup?

If the Senators haven't made space for this guy yet it's not because they won't, it's because they can't. Not reasonably, at least. As that December 1st deadline approaches it's going to become increasingly difficult for the Senators to make a trade. They're the ones under pressure.

I would imagine that the clarity we get on this situation that 'isn't a contract extension' is probably going to be the news that the Pinto camp have requested a trade. This isn't exactly the normal RFA holdout situation where two sides are grinding away at finding a deal, and it wouldn't be surprising to find out that Pinto and Lewis Gross have had their fill of it. They likely know for a fact that there are teams that would sign this player immediately if they owned his rights. How long will they sit on the sidelines and miss out on paycheques before they just decide to move on?

Kubalik would get claimed. Lots of dough for pinto

 

[Sens Vader]

too hard to make judgements until the 15-20 game mark league-wide.

we just gotta sort this Pinto situation out, missing full camp and now 5+ games of the season he may take a while to ramp up to speed which puts us at a disadvatage.

Dorion really screwed up

 

[dumbdick]

Bottom line, Kubalike with $1M retention for sure gets him moved and gives us the money to sign Shane.

With that option as a backstop, I don't see any scenario where the sens move pinto. Only caveat would be if they've done the math and know they're completely f***ed in the coming years if they sign Pinto, or know for sure that he won't extend long term. In that case you deal him.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Bottom line, Kubalike with $1M retention for sure gets him moved and gives us the money to sign Shane.

With that option as a backstop, I don't see any scenario where the sens move pinto. Only caveat would be if they've done the math and know they're completely f***ed in the coming years if they sign Pinto, or know for sure that he won't extend long term. In that case you deal him.

Not seeing a retention happening.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Bottom line, Kubalike with $1M retention for sure gets him moved and gives us the money to sign Shane.

With that option as a backstop, I don't see any scenario where the sens move pinto. Only caveat would be if they've done the math and know they're completely f***ed in the coming years if they sign Pinto, or know for sure that he won't extend long term. In that case you deal him.

There is no point in retaining on Kubalik unless we get an asset that helps us sign Pinto (like a 3rd we use to dump Brannstrom in conjunction with retaining on Kubalik).

If we send him down, the dead cap hit is 1.375M. That means that the net benefit of retaining 1M is only 375k of cap space.

If we send him down, we have the option to call him back up if we have injuries. We also maintain more flexibility because we save almost the same amount of cap as with retaining 1M, but we would maintain the option to trade him if injuries to other teams create an opportunity to offload the contract, or if we get to the point where it makes sense to attach a 2nd or 3rd to him.

Ultimately, the issue isn't that Kubalik is not an NHL player. He isn't a sunk cost where recovering any possible cap space is ideal. The issue is that they need to move cap to add Pinto. Pinto is better than Kubalik, so moving him makes sense. Retaining 1M only sheds an additional 375k vs burying so it doesn't help.

 

[Senator Stanley]

I think this is a situation where there is probably truth to there being a deal in place to clear the cap, but they will trade Pinto because the cost of both clearing cap AND paying Pinto above market value is too much in combination.

If Pinto had a softer stance it would make giving up a 1st or 2nd to get him signed easier to swallow. Or if they didn't have to give up a possible 1st or 2nd round pick to clear cap, it might make overpaying him on the AAV more tolerable. Both in combination is a lot of value and assets out the window.

They will get back an NHL ready 1st round type prospect who is on their ELC, or a young NHL player cost controlled on their second contract (Not Lafreniere as much as we throw his name around, but think that kind of contract situation).

I would lean to it being someone on their ELC, because if it is someone in the 2M ballpark, they still have to pay dump a contract.

That, or Scott Laughton with salary considerations. Then the logic is, Laughton is a better physical matchup 3C than Pinto right now when the Senators are trying to win, and even know Pinto will eventually become 2C, the Senators will lose him for futures in 2 years anyways because Bruce Garrioch says his agent is difficult.

Under no circumstances, short of Philly throwing a boatload of futures along with him, can a deal structured around Laughton for Pinto be allowed to happen.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Under no circumstances, short of Philly throwing a boatload of futures along with him, can a deal structured around Laughton for Pinto be allowed to happen.

They would also need to take back a few contracts

 

[BondraTime]

Bottom line, Kubalike with $1M retention for sure gets him moved and gives us the money to sign Shane.

With that option as a backstop, I don't see any scenario where the sens move pinto. Only caveat would be if they've done the math and know they're completely f***ed in the coming years if they sign Pinto, or know for sure that he won't extend long term. In that case you deal him.

Moving Kubalik with retention would be beyond absolutely insane for the Sens right now, and doesn't give the Sens the money to sign Pinto

 

[dumbdick]

There is no point in retaining on Kubalik unless we get an asset that helps us sign Pinto (like a 3rd we use to dump Brannstrom in conjunction with retaining on Kubalik).

If we send him down, the dead cap hit is 1.375M. That means that the net benefit of retaining 1M is only 375k of cap space.

If we send him down, we have the option to call him back up if we have injuries. We also maintain more flexibility because we save almost the same amount of cap as with retaining 1M, but we would maintain the option to trade him if injuries to other teams create an opportunity to offload the contract, or if we get to the point where it makes sense to attach a 2nd or 3rd to him.

Ultimately, the issue isn't that Kubalik is not an NHL player. He isn't a sunk cost where recovering any possible cap space is ideal. The issue is that they need to move cap to add Pinto. Pinto is better than Kubalik, so moving him makes sense. Retaining 1M only sheds an additional 375k vs burying so it doesn't help.

Yeah, fair enough. I thought the money worked out better compared to waiving him. My motivation here isn't that I think Kubalik can't be traded without retention, but rather that we need to make it possible for other teams to fit his cap.

In my mind, the order is:

1) Trade Kubalik for assets
2) trade kubalik for future considerations
3) waive kubalik and he gets claimed
4) retain a bit on kubalik (enough to fit pinto), specifically because the other team needs us to do this in order to swallow his cap hit. (With or without assets coming back).
5) waive kubalik and he goes to the minors.

If this doesnt work, proceed to do the same thing with Joseph or Brann or even Tank if he'll play ball with a trade.

If all that fails (and it really can't when you think about it), trade Pinto.

 

[OD99]

I'm pretty sure that you;re right about management loving Pinto. The problem is that the feeling has to be mutual. It's not crazy to consider that being basically the only unsigned RFA this year is souring Pinto on his potential future in Ottawa.

Who knows at this point?

Human nature allows for this thought but pro sports is a different animal when it comes to contracts, etc...

In this scenario he would have to put himself above the team because he knows the situation. He knows players need to leave for him to get on the team so does HE want MJ and Branny out? Maybe he is good friends with them?

At the end of the day, he knows GMPD f'ed this up royally and I am sure he agent it telling him the same. He also should be reminded that his RFA status us such that he doesn't have much leverage and his play, while promising, doesn't necessitate a large and long contract just yet.

If the Senators can beat Buff and then win a few more to get a few games over .500 his leverage goes down even more.

Also, don't forget about Nylander. He went through this and went on to have a very productive career with the Leafs.

 

[aragorn]

Hopefully, this situation with Pinto can be resolved by the time they get back from Sweden & he returns to the team. The Sens will be a much better team with Pinto than without him & given he is still quite young he will only get better.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Human nature allows for this thought but pro sports is a different animal when it comes to contracts, etc...

In this scenario he would have to put himself above the team because he knows the situation. He knows players need to leave for him to get on the team so does HE want MJ and Branny out? Maybe he is good friends with them?

At the end of the day, he knows GMPD f'ed this up royally and I am sure he agent it telling him the same. He also should be reminded that his RFA status us such that he doesn't have much leverage and his play, while promising, doesn't necessitate a large and long contract just yet.

If the Senators can beat Buff and then win a few more to get a few games over .500 his leverage goes down even more.

Also, don't forget about Nylander. He went through this and went on to have a very productive career with the Leafs.

This is all true but it all depends on the player and how they feel management is treating them. It's not out of the question that Pinto is frustrated with the situation and is eager to get past this and continue his career. Every player is different and hold outs/contract impasses rarely result in any improvements in a team-player relationship.

 

[dumbdick]

This is all true but it all depends on the player and how they feel management is treating them. It's not out of the question that Pinto is frustrated with the situation and is eager to get past this and continue his career. Every player is different and hold outs/contract impasses rarely result in any improvements in a team-player relationship.

I hold out hope that players don't deal with the corporate side very much.

If Pinto has a beef with Dorion after this, it's not so big a deal in the sense that it's such a small part of their day-to-day interactions.

A beef with another player or DJ feels like a much bigger deal than a beef with the GM or the owner. You deal with coaches and players everyday.

If you like your teammates and coaches, leaving due to an incompetent GM seems like cutting off your nose to spite your face.

 

[Sensinitis]

Hopefully, this situation with Pinto can be resolved by the time they get back from Sweden & he returns to the team. The Sens will be a much better team with Pinto than without him & given he is still quite young he will only get better.

Deadline is December 1st and one thing both parties can agree on is that they don't want Pinto sitting out for a year so we have about a month to get this done at this point

 

[senswon]

Cmon Pierre/Staois. Make a decision.

 

[guyzeur]

I think Dorion pride will stop him from moving Kubalik

Not the first time I hear people talking about "pride" with Dorion. His pride didn't stop him to trade away DBC at a lost

 

[Micklebot]

I think Dorion pride will stop him from moving Kubalik

The guy traded Karlsson after saying god rested on the 7th day, on the 8th day, he created Karlsson

I don't think pride will stop him from anything.

 

[Bileur]

Years working under Melnyk requires someone shameless who completely swallows their pride. Not convinced he’s that prideful.

 

[Cosmix]

Not the first time I hear people talking about "pride" with Dorion. His pride didn't stop him to trade away DBC at a lost

Forced error!

 

[Burrowsaurus]

The guy traded Karlsson after saying god rested on the 7th day, on the 8th day, he created Karlsson

I don't think pride will stop him from anything.

Our owner told him trade or else essentially lol. Same thing needs to happen

Not the first time I hear people talking about "pride" with Dorion. His pride didn't stop him to trade away DBC at a lost

Didnt really have a choice?