Idk about the Karlsson for Korpisalo logic;
Essentially, you're saying Karlsson with 1.3 in retention so at 8.7 for 3 years, is worth Future considerations to another team, I'm not sure I can buy that. He's still 12th in 5v5 pts among D in the league, and won the Norris just last year.
I also don't think the Penguins are in need of immediate cap relief, particularly as you have them moving Guentzel. They'll have 17 mil in cap space next your to fill out 6 spots and I don't think anybody is expecting a big raise (maybe I'm wrong?)
A Karlsson/Korpisalo swap with a Korpisalo buyout frees up an average of 9.4M in 24-25 and 25-26 (18.8M total). Karlsson is buyout proof, and based on how limited the market was last offseason when he came off of a legendary season, there is almost certainly nowhere that would take him in a trade after this ho-hum season.
A Korpi/Karlsson swap assumes:
-Pittsburgh wants to win with Crosby still around.
-Therefore, Pittsburgh values cap over the next few seasons more than future cap down the road.
-Nobody will takes Karlsson in a trade without considerable short-term cap considerations.
-Pittsburgh can make their team better with 9.4M in open cap in 24-25 and 25-26 than they could with Karlsson at 10M in both of those seasons.
It makes perfect sense for Pittsburgh. It's less likely that Ottawa would want to do the trade than Pittsburgh. Ottawa could buyout Korpisalo and benefit from the same short-term cap flexibility. It is a get out of jail free card for Pittsburgh.
The only reason it remotely makes sense for Ottawa is because Karlsson coming back could be a very positive thing for the marketplace and help with season ticket renewals. Which is always going to factor in. They did well with tickets just based on the marketing campaign that they aren't Eugene Melnyk, but with the team missing the playoffs again, that goodwill will only take them so far.
Karlsson is buyout proof, nobody is going to want him because of his contract, and his NMC will ensure that they can't move him anyways unless he wants to go to the team that wants him.
It's not about cap relief. It's not like they need to move guys to get under the cap. It's about opening up cap to re-tool with and try to build a winner in Crosby's last few years. A Korpisalo buyout might as well be free cap for them, because when the actual dead cap hits their books starting in 2026-27, their window is probably closed for good and they are going to start a rebuild. Korpi's cap hit with a buyout is 333k next year and 666k the year after that. The 2Mish hits only start in 2026-27.
They could obviously broaden a Korpisalo/Karlsson swap with other pieces to help both sides save face. Something like swapping the BOS 1st for PIT 2nd and a roster player or prospect that bridges the gap between both picks, so Ottawa doesn't lose value but Dubas can claim he only took back cap similar to what he originally dumped, and he got back into the 1st round (Just like we did with Duchene! lol). The optics then look a little bit better for Pittsburgh.
Throwing Chychrun into the deal is more in the realm of throwing something at the wall. I don't think that makes all that much sense, but this is a discussion thread.
I do think the Korpisalo for Karlsson swap makes perfect sense given how it leverages the cap to help Pittsburgh in the short-term and Ottawa's ties to Karlsson, who is basically untrade-able anywhere else. I think that if Pittsburgh could take a mulligan on the Karlsson trade, they would do it. Korpisalo for Karlsson is about as close to a mulligan as they are going to get. I don't think Ottawa would add a 1st or major assets.