Proposal: Free agency edition Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic] 5

[Gil Gunderson]

Hamonic is a prime buyout candidate. I'd be surprised if that doesn't happen this summer.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

idk about 8 years at that price, he's 30 years old to start that contract, you're suggesting it will take more to sign him than Weegar coming off a a damn good season. If he gets term it should push down the cap hit a bit, if he doesn't get term it will likely cost a bit more.

Players like Weegar and Lindholm signed under the depressed cap. If things work out to players like Demelo who people expect to re-sign not hitting free agency, there are almost no legitimate RHD available in free agency. Add in the cap going up, and 6M or so seems reasonable.

Saying it would take 8x8 in Ottawa is in the context of the player not actually wanting to sign here. If he and his agent think they can get 6M+ with term in the summer on a US team or whatever the ideal destination is, they're going to want more for the tradeoff of signing somewhere they don't want to be.

 

[Micklebot]

Hamonic is a prime buyout candidate. I'd be surprised if that doesn't happen this summer.

Why would you buy him out, worst case he'll spend next year as our 7th D, we might carry 8 D and he only plays the odd game the way Luke Richardson did back in 08-09.

 

[Micklebot]

Players like Weegar and Lindholm signed under the depressed cap. If things work out to players like Demelo who people expect to re-sign not hitting free agency, there are almost no legitimate RHD available in free agency. Add in the cap going up, and 6M or so seems reasonable.

Saying it would take 8x8 in Ottawa is in the context of the player not actually wanting to sign here. If he and his agent think they can get 6M+ with term in the summer on a US team or whatever the ideal destination is, they're going to want more for the tradeoff of signing somewhere they don't want to be.

The depressed cap is a red herring, Weegar signed knowing an explosion was coming, and his new contract only kicked in this year. Agents aren't stupid, they know which way the wind is blowing.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Hamonic is a prime buyout candidate. I'd be surprised if that doesn't happen this summer.

There is no point in buying him out unless it is some sort of locker room politics thing, or it's like that scene from Money Ball where they trade the guy so the coach won't play him.

Assuming they do not mismanage the cap, he can be a healthy scratch most of the season and it costs less than buying him out. Buying him out costs 367k x 2 years. The cost to make him the healthy scratch instead of a league minimum tweener is 325k.

If they buy him out, they really don't want him around for some reason, or it's a mercy buyout to let him retire early.

The depressed cap is a red herring, Weegar signed knowing an explosion was coming, and his new contract only kicked in this year. Agents aren't stupid, they know which way the wind is blowing.

It's not a red herring.

Players take on risk when they don't re-sign early. See Klingberg.

Some players opted to do what you are suggesting and sign shorter deals to coincide with escrow getting paid off and the cap rising again. Gavrikov is an example of a player who did this. It is not common.

I don't think it's outlandish to say that more cap flexibility due to the higher cap ceiling will lead to higher cap hits.

 

[bert]

Vegas doles out ice time pretty evenly across their D, but like I said he was good during last years playoffs.

I don’t think Tank at 50% retained gets a 1st and I doubt Chychrun gets 2x 1sts even with a relatively low 4.6M AAV.

Chychurn was just traded for 11th OA and two 2nds. Thats more than two late firsts. Tarasenko is having a better year than last year and was traded for a 1st. He is + 17 on a team with a negative goal differential and has 31 points in 41 games thats a 62 point pace with no first pp time and most of the season on the third line. Tarasenko also has a cup and plays a heavy game. He is absolutely getting a first especially if they retain.

Whitecloud has been a bottom pair D man. I like the player but this is an absolutely terrible trade for Ottawa. Chychrun alone is worth substantially more.

 

[Micklebot]

It's not a red herring.

Players take on risk when they don't re-sign early. See Klingberg.

Some players opted to do what you are suggesting and sign shorter deals to coincide with escrow getting paid off and the cap rising again. Gavrikov is an example of a player who did this. It is not common.

I don't think it's outlandish to say that more cap flexibility due to the higher cap ceiling will lead to higher cap hits.

Again, teams and agents knew the projections for revenues and when escrow would be paid off, there was even a feeling it would have been prior to this year until the Bally sports bankruptcy. Weegar likely got resigned when he did because it was part of the trade conditions anyways. Weegar wasn't taking a multi ~10 mil haircut over the life of his his contract because of a depressed cap that wasn't likely to have any impact on at least 7 of the seasons it was in place for.

 

[bert]

Damn, it that's the case, LA won't be a good trade partner at all. No way they move a more established forward like Danault, Fiala, or Kempe. I still want Matt Roy though. Even if we get a guy like Kaliev, can always try using him to address another gap but you've got a valid point

They have guys like Moore and Arvidsson who are exactly that type of player. Id do Moore and and extended Roy for Chychrun.

Well that's just not true.

Hawks won in 2010 with Brian Campbell
Bruins won in 2011 with Andrew Ference
Hawks won in 2015 with Kimmo Timonen
Pens won in 2016 and 2017 with Trevor Daley
Caps won in 2019 with Dmitri Orlov

And there's a whole lot of players generously listed at 6'0 feet that teams won with as well.

A big defense is absolutely a benefit come playoff time but having a below average sized D or two isn't going to prevent you from winning the cup if they are good defensively.

Is Brannstrom that player? I doubt it. He's an okay bottom pairing guy but if he was on a contender he's probably someone you look to push out of the lineup come the deadline.

Do you actually think Brannstrom is like any of those guys? Brannstrom is like 5'8 on his toes. Those guys are superb skaters or built like a fire hydrant. Alot of people seem to be in denial about the player. Look at the teams that have had success they dont have players like him playing.

 

[Wondercarrot]

I'm not a huge fan of Chabot's play these last few years but he was much better when he played with a defensively-minded partner like DeMelo, much like EK was more effective when partnered with Methot. Isn't it possible that Chabot could return to form if they picked up a good RD for him to play with?

Of course it is, people have lost their minds.

 

[GCK]

Chychurn was just traded for 11th OA and two 2nds. Thats more than two late firsts. Tarasenko is having a better year than last year and was traded for a 1st. He is + 17 on a team with a negative goal differential and has 31 points in 41 games thats a 62 point pace with no first pp time and most of the season on the third line. Tarasenko also has a cup and plays a heavy game. He is absolutely getting a first especially if they retain.

Whitecloud has been a bottom pair D man. I like the player but this is an absolutely terrible trade for Ottawa. Chychrun alone is worth substantially more.

I’m probably just overvaluing Whitecloud’s contract.

 

[Icelevel]

Hamonic is a prime buyout candidate. I'd be surprised if that doesn't happen this summer.

SS did mention today that you can never have enough veteran experience and it’s something he’s going to look at. So maybe they keep him around (?)
I wouldn’t. We can find better vets I think.

 

[Relapsing]

What if Staois says that the price for Tarasenko is a 1st.

Vegas is the first team to meet this price. Staois says no because of Dorion's honor.

Come the TDL, no other team meets that price, and we have to deal Tarasenko for a 2nd or a 3rd.

Do you still feel that way? Or do you view it like this is a team with only 31 other teams to trade with, and only a small sample of those 31 are going to be buyers, so you can't be selective about your dealings.

Well, first and foremost, there are only 32 teams in the league including us, so that's 30 teams....

In your worst case scenario, if Vegas is stupid enough to give us something the rest of the league won't for a player, then you sleep well knowing they gave up more than they needed.

Otherwise, and the crux of my point was, Vegas should get no favours whatsoever from this team moving forward. No help on cup runs. No unbalanced trades. f*** Vegas. They can rot.

 

[Senator Stanley]

Well, first and foremost, there are only 32 teams in the league including us, so that's 30 teams....

In your worst case scenario, if Vegas is stupid enough to give us something the rest of the league won't for a player, then you sleep well knowing they gave up more than they needed.

Otherwise, and the crux of my point was, Vegas should get no favours whatsoever from this team moving forward. No help on cup runs. No unbalanced trades. f*** Vegas. They can rot.

Winning a bidding war usually means giving up more than the other bidders are willing to give. That doesn't necessarily mean the winning bidder gave up too much. That's just how any market works.

 

[JD1]

Chychurn was just traded for 11th OA and two 2nds. Thats more than two late firsts. Tarasenko is having a better year than last year and was traded for a 1st. He is + 17 on a team with a negative goal differential and has 31 points in 41 games thats a 62 point pace with no first pp time and most of the season on the third line. Tarasenko also has a cup and plays a heavy game. He is absolutely getting a first especially if they retain.

Whitecloud has been a bottom pair D man. I like the player but this is an absolutely terrible trade for Ottawa. Chychrun alone is worth substantially more.

Tarasenko has to agree to waive his trade protection

+17. Man i coulda sworn i was recently told about his xGA/60 and how plus minus was a useless number

 

[dumbdick]

Like Butchy Dakkar said, not only this team needs Giroux but they also need to be competitive NOW, not in 3-5 years.

In 3 years, Tkachuk and Chabot will have 1 year before UFA, Stutzle 4 years, Norris 3 years, Batherson and Zub will be UFA, Joseph will have been UFA 1 year prior, same with Chychrun, Sanderson will have 5 years left

I think you're overlooking the assets we'd be adding through those trades. So when those contracts are expiring in three years, those trade assets would be starting to contribute. And those guys you're worried about resigning would be expendable (i.e, tradable for even more assets).

Like what would the return look like for unloading all of norris + giroux + chych + tank + kubalik + brann look like, if we only took back picks, prospects and expiring cap dumps? Im assuming that return is equivalent to like 4 2024 firsts and a couple seconds at minimum.

we'd still have a top six core of brady, bath, stu, pinto, greig, and joseph. Plus a boatload of cash to pay top dollar for some short term ufa talent to build around that.

Then add six 2024 first rounders who would start contributing in 1-3 years.

In three years we'd be so overloaded with young talent that the pieces you're worried about resigning would be superficial at that point.

It's like layering two cascading rebuilds on top of each other.

You could literally build a 2027 roster that looks like:

Brady-stu-bath
Greig-pinto-joseph
2024 first-2024 first-2024 first
4th line

Sanderson- 2024 1st
Chabot - 2024 1st
2025 1st - 2024 2nd

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I think you're overlooking the assets we'd be adding through those trades. So when those contracts are expiring in three years, those trade assets would be starting to contribute.

Like what would the return look like for unloading all of norris + giroux + chych + tank + kubalik + brann look like, if we only took back picks, prospects and expiring cap dumps? Im assuming that return is equivalent to like 4 2024 firsts and a couple seconds at minimum.

we'd still have a top six core of brady, bath, stu, pinto, greig, and joseph. Plus a boatload of cash to pay top dollar for some short term ufa talent to build around that.

Then add six 2024 first rounders who would start contributing in 1-3 years.

In three years we'd be so overloaded with young talent that the pieces you're worried about resigning would be superficial at that point.

It's like layering two cascading rebuilds on top of each other.

You could literally build a 2027 roster that looks like:

Brady-stu-bath
Greig-pinto-joseph
2024 first-2024 first-2024 first
4th line

Sanderson- 2024 1st
Chabot - 2024 1st
2025 1st - 2024 2nd

That's too unrealistic from too many angles imo.

At least one of the big guns asks out if that were the plan. Imagine being Brady or Stu and watching them trade Norris, Giroux, Tank and Chychrun for picks and/or prospects after giving the last management group their wish to contend. I'd text the GM same day and say I want out just out of spite.

2027 also means Bath, Zub & Joseph are expired and would have had to be re-signed while Tkachuk would be in his last year.

 

[Relapsing]

Winning a bidding war usually means giving up more than the other bidders are willing to give. That doesn't necessarily mean the winning bidder gave up too much. That's just how any market works.

That's a great point.

If the return between vegas and other teams is relatively similar... vegas isn't getting a player if I was making the choice. Hell, I'd even take a 2nd for senko in the original hypothetical vs a 1st just to thumb my nose at them.

It's not nothing to do with Dorions honor (the other guys point, I'm not typing out that name). It has everything to do with Vegas begging the league to punish us because, yes, Dorion was an idiot, but because they also didn't want to add on to a well-earned reputation for being shitty to their players and in doing so took a much needed asset from our coffers.

For at least the next season or three, they would be at the bottom of my list of teams to trade with. This franchise has already lost too much to that f***ing team.

 

[dumbdick]

That's too unrealistic from too many angles imo.

At least one of the big guns asks out if that were the plan. Imagine being Brady or Stu and watching them trade Norris, Giroux, Tank and Chychrun for picks and/or prospects after giving the last management group their wish to contend. I'd text the GM same day and say I want out just out of spite.

2027 also means Bath, Zub & Joseph are expired and would have had to be re-signed while Tkachuk would be in his last year.

Yeah, its an extremely unlikely example to play out at that scale. When was the last time a team had 6 firsts in one draft?

But i think the general idea of unloading some assets and replacing them with UFAs next year isn't a terrible idea. Rich get richer.

We've got the assets to restock on the fly without completely blowing up the young core. And when that all comes to bear fruit, we'll be overloaded with talent and in a position to do it again.

Just gotta keep building the asset stock each year and never go into 'win now' mode.

Virtuous cycle that we can repeat to build a lasting dynasty.

 

[Senator Stanley]

Yeah, its an extremely unlikely example to play out at that scale. When was the last time a team had 6 firsts in one draft?

But i think the general idea of unloading some assets and replacing them with UFAs next year isn't a terrible idea. Rich get richer.

We've got the assets to restock on the fly without completely blowing up the young core. And when that all comes to bear fruit, we'll be overloaded with talent and in a position to do it again.

Just gotta keep building the asset stock each year and never go into 'win now' mode.

Virtuous cycle that we can repeat to build a lasting dynasty.

This is what Yzerman has been doing in Detroit. And look at the Kubalik example. He signed him as a free agent, got a decent season out of him, then a year later used him in a deal for DeBrincat.

 

[Cosmix]

Chych is a soon to be UFA. No way around that needing to be resolved either way.

Soon means after the 2024-25 season. If we sign Chychrun for about $8M we would have 3 D earning $8M plus Zub at $4.6M.

Chabot (LD#1) $8M
Sanderson (LD#2) $8.05M
Chychrun (LD#3) $8M
Zub (RD#1) $4.6M
TOTAL (top 4) $28.65M

We would need 2 more D, presumably RD at about $1M or less.
RD#2 - $1m
RD#3 - $1m

TOTAL D SALARIES $30.65M

Salary Cap for 2024-25 is $87.5M and likely will increase by say about $2.5M to about $90M.

Based on a 20 man roster, the average salary per player would be $90M / 20 = $4.5M

6D at $4.5M each "average" = $27M.

Our D cost would exceed our "average" cost by ($30.65 - $27M = ) $3.65M

I think it doable if we get low cost 4th liners, a low cost backup goaltender, and low cost D and F injury replacements, but it would be difficult to manage. We might have to get rid of an expensive F to do it.

 

[dumbdick]

This is what Yzerman has been doing in Detroit. And look at the Kubalik example. He signed him as a free agent, got a decent season out of him, then a year later used him in a deal for DeBrincat.

Exactly. Yzerman started selling when they were just out of a wild card spot.

Free cash draws UFAs. UFAs can be traded for picks. Picks lead to winning. Winning draws more UFAs on better deals.

Good players drive up the value of their teammates. Selling those players draws more picks. More picks means more winning.

Continuously sell high because you have the assets to offset the loss.

All this stuff compounds on itself.

Do it enough and that cycle time between winning and rebuilding decreases to zero. You can sell without hurting your roster because there's always someone just as good busting down the door. This is why we can talk about moving guys like Norris right now.

You're basically hacking around the parity system the NHL has set up via the draft ordering.

Just gotta be willing to make those hard decisions. Drop the idea of 'untouchables'. Sell when you're in contention.

Embrace this idea of high turnover. Be a place where UFAs come to play with the best for a season and then either win a cup here or get dealt to a contender and win there.

I honestly believe it's possible for a team to simultaneously win the cup AND have the top ranked prospect pool at the same time.

 

[Cosmix]

I'm not a huge fan of Chabot's play these last few years but he was much better when he played with a defensively-minded partner like DeMelo, much like EK was more effective when partnered with Methot. Isn't it possible that Chabot could return to form if they picked up a good RD for him to play with?

Possible yes but Chabot needs coaching on how to play D at low risk tactics.

 

[Cosmix]

Why would you buy him out, worst case he'll spend next year as our 7th D, we might carry 8 D and he only plays the odd game the way Luke Richardson did back in 08-09.

I doubt that the team will carry 8D on the roster due to cap issues.

For the same reasons we might have to go with 12 Forwards instead of having a spare 13th F on the roster.

 

[LiseL]

Maybe if they add Frost. What Ottawa would have to add to include Hart

Well, may have to wait to see what happens with 2018 WJ trial to see if Hart will even be playing. No confirmation that he's one of the 5 to be charged, but didn't he did step away from playing shortly before it was announced?

 

[Crosside]

Well, may have to wait to see what happens with 2018 WJ trial to see if Hart will even be playing. No confirmation that he's one of the 5 to be charged, but didn't he did step away from playing shortly before it was announced?

Yeah easy to say after the news was announced