Confirmed with Link: Flyers trade Cutter Gauthier to Anaheim for Jamie Drysdale and 2025 2nd round pick

[GKJ]

(EDIT)

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[deadhead]

Maybe not retrospectively discuss this but some reasonable remembering might be useful. He was/is/will not be a 1C in the NHL. The skills for that position aren’t there. That the Flyers thought that they could make this happen was an illustration of the misguided egoism that has permeated the franchise for way too long. Cutter may have done everyone a favor by getting off of the club since he was never going to be capable of filling the role that the club had for him.
The remaining issue is was the return adequate? Right now it looks like a Tippett type player in exchange for a RHD, probably eventually a second pair one, and an early second round DC. Time will tell but it could be a fair exchange. Whether DB could have done better we’ll never know.

I remember they weren't sure he could play center, one reason they wanted him to stay in college was to play center b/c he had a so-so freshman season.

I think it was more a matter of his floor being a 30+ goal LW and his ceiling being a 1C/2C.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I think it was more a matter of his floor being a 30+ goal LW and his ceiling being a 1C/2C.

I have far, far more of a problem with the former than the latter if this is indeed what they thought. He had a floor of not an NHLer.

 

[deadhead]

I have far, far more of a problem with the former than the latter if this is indeed what they thought. He had a floor of not an NHLer.

I doubt that, he'd have to be stone stupid not to make it given his size, speed and shot.

There are plenty of top six wings in the NHL who are primarily offense first guys who score at ES and on the PP but are sheltered to some extent b/c they're defensive liabilities.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I doubt that, he'd have to be stone stupid not to make it given his size, speed and shot.

There are plenty of top six wings in the NHL who are primarily offense first guys who score at ES and on the PP but are sheltered to some extent b/c they're defensive liabilities.

A bunch of guys existing is a completely different conversation from a player’s floor. There are a handful of guys in every draft with a floor higher than that.

Hell, I’m not sure 2022 had one.

 

[deadhead]

A bunch of guys existing is a completely different conversation from a player’s floor. There are a handful of guys in every draft with a floor higher than that.

Patrick?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Patrick?

Exactly what I mean! We talk about these guys with certainty that simply does not exist.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I remember they weren't sure he could play center, one reason they wanted him to stay in college was to play center b/c he had a so-so freshman season.

I think it was more a matter of his floor being a 30+ goal LW and his ceiling being a 1C/2C.

His floor has never been 30+ goals, not without a drastic change to play style

 

[deadhead]

Exactly what I mean! We talk about these guys with certainty that simply does not exist.

I see more as a probability distribution, there are tails at either end, then the 1SD range (67%).
Both tails are unlikely but happen (total flop, surprise Allstar).

So to me the median Gauthier is a 30 goal scorer with subpar defense (b/c he seems to be a more talented but less motivated Tippett).

The median Drysdale is a solid 3RHD who is a PP1 QB.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

I see more as a probability distribution, there are tails at either end, then the 1SD range (67%).
Both tails are unlikely but happen (total flop, surprise Allstar).

So to me the median Gauthier is a 30 goal scorer with subpar defense (b/c he seems to be a more talented but less motivated Tippett).

The median Drysdale is a solid 3RHD who is a PP1 QB.

Hasn't shown that yet.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I see more as a probability distribution, there are tails at either end, then the 1SD range (67%).
Both tails are unlikely but happen (total flop, surprise Allstar).

So to me the median Gauthier is a 30 goal scorer with subpar defense (b/c he seems to be a more talented but less motivated Tippett).

The median Drysdale is a solid 3RHD who is a PP1 QB.

I think we just define floor differently, which is completely fine. It could be 1st through 20th Percentile outcomes or even higher depending on the person and the player involved. None of them are wrong. They're different discussions.

 

[deadhead]

I think we just define floor differently, which is completely fine. It could be 1st through 20th Percentile outcomes or even higher depending on the person and the player involved. None of them are wrong. They're different discussions.

I see both tails as low probability events, because you can't plan on hitting the lottery or a tornado taking your house.

So like you say, "floor" is something like the 10% low end and the ceiling the 90% high end, or 20/80.

The mean/median is generally what you draft for early, but after the 2nd rd, I think you draft for the top 80%, maybe 90% late in the draft b/c if the mean is the AHL, it's not worth the pick.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

I've brought this up several times, but the Flyers have a total organizational block on trading ELC players. Not even talking prospects still in junior. Play a game if you want: find me the last one, then find me the one before.

Spoiler

Sbisa and....? Sbisa also wasn't necessarily a judgment call

We can litigate how the Flyers aren't good at aspects of drafting, but it doesn't take much to prove how high their opinion is of themselves. I don't think they ever steel man an argument about any of their prospects, which leads to thoughts of selling high. All while oddly not pumping their prospects' values. I think they don't care about pumping value because they assume they'll eventually hit within the organization.

JVR?

 

[deadhead]

How often do top prospects get traded on their ELC?

It's usually the second tier guys or guys who had disappointing D+1/D+2 who get moved, often my flop for your flop kind of moves.

When a top prospect gets traded, it's often a "blockbuster" trade as part of a package for a top NHL player, like Levi in the Reinhart deal or Thompson in the ROR deal, or Tippett in the Giroux deal.

And these kinds of deals are rare, maybe a half dozen a season at best.

 

[trostol]

I see more as a probability distribution, there are tails at either end, then the 1SD range (67%).
Both tails are unlikely but happen (total flop, surprise Allstar).

So to me the median Gauthier is a 30 goal scorer with subpar defense (b/c he seems to be a more talented but less motivated Tippett).

The median Drysdale is a solid 3RHD who is a PP1 QB.

i feel like we had this sort of guy on our team before

 

[Magua]

JVR?

Finished his ELC years, was traded as he was to start his 2nd contract (technically he had a week left but that’s hairsplitting). Fun fact: JVR’s first contract not signed with the Flyers was last year.

How often do top prospects get traded on their ELC?

A helluva lot more often than once in 30 years or god knows what. I don’t know anyone but Sbisa. You also said “top prospect” — I didn’t say “top prospect.”

A player on a 3 year ELC can be 21-22 years old. You’re trying to say with a straight face teams don’t regularly trade players this age or younger, especially in packaged deals for NHL players. I went back and roughly counted ~27 players currently on their ELCs traded in the last year. I’m not even including unsigned guys who could be signed to an ELC (e.g. Gauthier).

 

[FLYguy3911]

5 game sample and I'm not sure we know when this data stabilizes, but his top end speed dipped again. Not great.

Fun fact, Sanheim is the only defenseman on the team considered to have "above average" speed.

This is Risto's spider graph.

 

[Magua]

5 game sample and I'm not sure we know when this data stabilizes, but his top end speed dipped again. Not great.

I'd wager to say burst frequency is more important than random top speed (somehow Atkinson registered a 73rd percentile last year; Brink had a higher top speed than Sanheim!). Weirdly, Tippett is sub-50th percentile so far this season, to the stability point, although he's looked off.

Drysdale can skate 25 mph next game for all I care, but I've never thought he was an "elite" skater. It's funny how often "elite" is code for "above average." How people discuss skating is an unmitigated disaster. Luchanko already is one of the fastest players in the league (checks out), but how many of those burst frequencies are off-puck? Almost all of them. Is he an elite skater?

Fun fact, Sanheim is the only defenseman on the team considered to have "above average" speed.

And speaking of Sanheim, it's curious how he's basically a 60ish percentile skater every year with the Edge data. His 22.19mph is 86th percentile right now; last year's 22.06mph was < 50th percentile (to the stabilizing question). In fact, Sanheim's Edge skating profile is basically identical to Quinn Hughes'. These are elite movers with the puck. Interestingly (or obviously), they are 95-99th percentile in total distance, which I think is a lot more illustrative.

 

[deadhead]

You need a large enough sample, the first 10 games or so last year Frost was actually below average.

Sanheim is one of the better D-men scorers 5x5, he's just not well suited to the PP.

D-men who carry the puck are generally going to have better Edge numbers than a partner who is the CYA guy (and tends to follow the play up ice).

 

[JojoTheWhale]

he's just not well suited to the PP.

 

[Embiid]

While Drysdale is the poster child for Planned Parenthood right now ...talk of Cutter being sent down provides some solace. If he does get sent down his name should be "Cut-him" Gauthier...not Cutter

 

[Rebels57]

While Drysdale is the poster child for Planned Parenthood right now ...talk of Cutter being sent down provides some solace. If he does get sent down his name should be "Cut-him" Gauthier...not Cutter

At the NHL level, Gauthier is a poor mans Tippett. Just a low IQ wrist-shot turret. Exactly what many of us were afraid of when he was still a Flyers prospect.

 

[Deadpool8812]

Let's hope that 2nd round pick can turn into something good....right?

 

[Rebels57]

Even if Gauthier never pans out, the could have traded him for a much more useful asset than Drysdale. Just poor asset management like always.

They just had to let bumbling Bob Murray get into their ear about Drysdale. If there was ever a GM to not trust about young defensemen evaluation it should have him been him. He traded Theodore to Vegas in the expansion draft then traded Montour to Buffalo.

 

[thedjpd]

Even if Gauthier never pans out, the could have traded him for a much more useful asset than Drysdale. Just poor asset management like always.

They just had to let bumbling Bob Murray get into their ear about Drysdale. If there was ever a GM to not trust about young defensemen evaluation it should have him been him. He traded Theodore to Vegas in the expansion draft then traded Montour to Buffalo.

If they traded Gauthier as rumored for Rossi, then drafted Buium, the future would be very much brighter.

They'd have a 1C, 1D and 1G base, even if Rossi is small. They could have flipped TK for a mid 1st+ and still gotten Luchanko if they loved him.

Suddenly, you have tons of cap space, tons of picks, key positions covered (1C, 2C, 1D, 2D (York), 1G) all in system and just wait until they develop.

 

[scumpup]

If they traded Gauthier as rumored for Rossi, then drafted Buium, the future would be very much brighter.

They'd have a 1C, 1D and 1G base, even if Rossi is small. They could have flipped TK for a mid 1st+ and still gotten Luchanko if they loved him.

Suddenly, you have tons of cap space, tons of picks, key positions covered (1C, 2C, 1D, 2D (York), 1G) all in system and just wait until they develop.

yea well sometimes life doesnt work out that way. it's not like it's his JOB to care about maximizing the talent of the franchise and ensuring they have the best possible chance of winning the cup so they can sell out WFC every night.