Confirmed with Link: Flyers trade Cutter Gauthier to Anaheim for Jamie Drysdale and 2025 2nd round pick

[GKJ]

(EDIT)

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[renberg]

Every player is 20 years old; most are turning pro this year. Rushing to judgment, aren't we? Quite a few of those players could outperform Gauthier. Remember, us idiots WANTED the Flyers to trade back from 5th overall because we didn't like the value of the spot. We wanted more picks. Don't need to retrospectively discuss our opinions on that one.

Maybe not retrospectively discuss this but some reasonable remembering might be useful. He was/is/will not be a 1C in the NHL. The skills for that position aren’t there. That the Flyers thought that they could make this happen was an illustration of the misguided egoism that has permeated the franchise for way too long. Cutter may have done everyone a favor by getting off of the club since he was never going to be capable of filling the role that the club had for him.
The remaining issue is was the return adequate? Right now it looks like a Tippett type player in exchange for a RHD, probably eventually a second pair one, and an early second round DC. Time will tell but it could be a fair exchange. Whether DB could have done better we’ll never know.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I've brought this up several times, but the Flyers have a total organizational block on trading ELC players. Not even talking prospects still in junior. Play a game if you want: find me the last one, then find me the one before.

Spoiler

Sbisa and....? Sbisa also wasn't necessarily a judgment call

We can litigate how the Flyers aren't good at aspects of drafting, but it doesn't take much to prove how high their opinion is of themselves. I don't think they ever steel man an argument about any of their prospects, which leads to thoughts of selling high. All while oddly not pumping their prospects' values. I think they don't care about pumping value because they assume they'll eventually hit within the organization.

Pumping value goes against their philosophy of making prospects "earn it" and "build culture" via "crushing futility"

 

[deadhead]

Maybe not retrospectively discuss this but some reasonable remembering might be useful. He was/is/will not be a 1C in the NHL. The skills for that position aren’t there. That the Flyers thought that they could make this happen was an illustration of the misguided egoism that has permeated the franchise for way too long. Cutter may have done everyone a favor by getting off of the club since he was never going to be capable of filling the role that the club had for him.
The remaining issue is was the return adequate? Right now it looks like a Tippett type player in exchange for a RHD, probably eventually a second pair one, and an early second round DC. Time will tell but it could be a fair exchange. Whether DB could have done better we’ll never know.

I remember they weren't sure he could play center, one reason they wanted him to stay in college was to play center b/c he had a so-so freshman season.

I think it was more a matter of his floor being a 30+ goal LW and his ceiling being a 1C/2C.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I think it was more a matter of his floor being a 30+ goal LW and his ceiling being a 1C/2C.

I have far, far more of a problem with the former than the latter if this is indeed what they thought. He had a floor of not an NHLer.

 

[deadhead]

I have far, far more of a problem with the former than the latter if this is indeed what they thought. He had a floor of not an NHLer.

I doubt that, he'd have to be stone stupid not to make it given his size, speed and shot.

There are plenty of top six wings in the NHL who are primarily offense first guys who score at ES and on the PP but are sheltered to some extent b/c they're defensive liabilities.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I doubt that, he'd have to be stone stupid not to make it given his size, speed and shot.

There are plenty of top six wings in the NHL who are primarily offense first guys who score at ES and on the PP but are sheltered to some extent b/c they're defensive liabilities.

A bunch of guys existing is a completely different conversation from a player’s floor. There are a handful of guys in every draft with a floor higher than that.

Hell, I’m not sure 2022 had one.

 

[deadhead]

A bunch of guys existing is a completely different conversation from a player’s floor. There are a handful of guys in every draft with a floor higher than that.

Patrick?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Patrick?

Exactly what I mean! We talk about these guys with certainty that simply does not exist.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I remember they weren't sure he could play center, one reason they wanted him to stay in college was to play center b/c he had a so-so freshman season.

I think it was more a matter of his floor being a 30+ goal LW and his ceiling being a 1C/2C.

His floor has never been 30+ goals, not without a drastic change to play style

 

[deadhead]

Exactly what I mean! We talk about these guys with certainty that simply does not exist.

I see more as a probability distribution, there are tails at either end, then the 1SD range (67%).
Both tails are unlikely but happen (total flop, surprise Allstar).

So to me the median Gauthier is a 30 goal scorer with subpar defense (b/c he seems to be a more talented but less motivated Tippett).

The median Drysdale is a solid 3RHD who is a PP1 QB.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

I see more as a probability distribution, there are tails at either end, then the 1SD range (67%).
Both tails are unlikely but happen (total flop, surprise Allstar).

So to me the median Gauthier is a 30 goal scorer with subpar defense (b/c he seems to be a more talented but less motivated Tippett).

The median Drysdale is a solid 3RHD who is a PP1 QB.

Hasn't shown that yet.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I see more as a probability distribution, there are tails at either end, then the 1SD range (67%).
Both tails are unlikely but happen (total flop, surprise Allstar).

So to me the median Gauthier is a 30 goal scorer with subpar defense (b/c he seems to be a more talented but less motivated Tippett).

The median Drysdale is a solid 3RHD who is a PP1 QB.

I think we just define floor differently, which is completely fine. It could be 1st through 20th Percentile outcomes or even higher depending on the person and the player involved. None of them are wrong. They're different discussions.

 

[deadhead]

I think we just define floor differently, which is completely fine. It could be 1st through 20th Percentile outcomes or even higher depending on the person and the player involved. None of them are wrong. They're different discussions.

I see both tails as low probability events, because you can't plan on hitting the lottery or a tornado taking your house.

So like you say, "floor" is something like the 10% low end and the ceiling the 90% high end, or 20/80.

The mean/median is generally what you draft for early, but after the 2nd rd, I think you draft for the top 80%, maybe 90% late in the draft b/c if the mean is the AHL, it's not worth the pick.