Speculation: Florida's pick - Watch thread - (Upon request, thread title change lol)

[WeThreeKings]

Hopefully Matthew Tkachuk was one of the players looking dejected.

Spencer Knight's new contract kicks in next year as well. That will be almost $15m on their goalies for the long term.

He threw a lot of bad angle shots at Halak in frustration.

 

[la25ecoupe]

Can we trade Top 4+Top 8 for Top 2?

 

[BaseballCoach]

Not quite 22.8% because you cannot just add them all up, plus they rounded a bit.

Actual number is 21.36% chance of one top-2 pick and 0.63% chance of two.

The tricky part is that the odds on the second ball differ depending on who won the first ball. I've done all the math and did a proper weighted average.

Current odds on the morning of Jan 2:

01.0% chance at BOTH Top-2 picks
25.8% chance at one Top-2 pick, of which:

08.2% chance it is Top-2 plus 7th​

14.6% chance it is Top-2 plus 8th​

03.0% chance it is Top-2 plus 9th​

34.1% chance we draft 6th and 8th
33.2% chance we draft 7th plus 8th/9th
05.9% chance we draft 8th plus 9th/10th

 

[WeThreeKings]

Can we trade Top 4+Top 8 for Top 2?

Maybe but I probaly wouldn't.

You can get Michkov and then Cristall.. instead of just Fantilli/Carlsson.

If it was 5 and 8, I'd be more open to it.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Can we trade Top 4+Top 8 for Top 2?

Totally illogical move if before the lottery draw. Our top-4 plus top-8 get us more chances at a top-2 than having the second best odds (alone) to start with (30.5% versus 27.9% for the second worst team).

Not only that, but it is better to get two top ten players than one, so I would only do that trade after the lottery, and only for the first pick, which I'm sure won't be available anyway.

By the way, there is a 1.24% chance that the 4th and 8th worst teams BOTH win the lottery, and we get both top-2 picks.

I just can't see a scenario where we trade 4th and 8th for 2nd, pre-lottery or post-lottery.

 

[themilosh]

Sharks won
Senators won
Florida lost

We are looking great at hopefully finishing 4th last. Good evening for the tank. Chicago is gonna be dead last for sure but I believe in our odds and theirs to lose the 1st pick. Purposefully tanking like them is gonna bring bad Karma.

not to mention the horrible scandal which put a black eye on the league, I imagine the NHL Gods will not reward CHI with a lottery pick.

 

[SwiftyHab]

I had a day dream while my wife was talking to me today.

Probably the best opening to a post I’ve read

Can we trade Top 4+Top 8 for Top 2?

Nope

Current odds on the morning of Jan 2:

01.0% chance at BOTH Top-2 picks
25.8% chance at one Top-2 pick, of which:

08.2% chance it is Top-2 plus 7th​

14.6% chance it is Top-2 plus 8th​

03.0% chance it is Top-2 plus 9th​

34.1% chance we draft 6th and 8th
33.2% chance we draft 7th plus 8th/9th
05.9% chance we draft 8th plus 9th/10th

Why don’t you add the chance that we draft 1st overall in your spreadsheet there?

 

[WeThreeKings]

Currently in spot to draft Yager & Sale.

That would rule.

 

[StCaufield]

Having the right coach for the right team is important. Look at the Jets this year? You keep hearing interviews where ex players say it's overrated? Overrated to what degree? If someone says it's a factor, how do you know how much of a factor?

Star players don't win games as a team. This is not the NBA. Star players are important yes but so is the team. Team D, Goaltending, PP, PK, 5/5, Injuries, Coaching.

The main point? Everything matters and it all adds up. Panthers are not the same team as last season. Spin this as you wish and focus on the one context... coaching. That's a spin off argument where you overlook the main point.

I’ll find you the quotes when I get time but all new coaches make players play better out of fear of being sent down to losing minutes and just to impress. Players literally don’t need coaches lol don’t shoot the messenger. I know Ray Ferraro was one

 

[Habs Halifax]

If the Panthers pick ends up the 10th pick, would you trade that straight up for Lafreniere? Rangers can ask for the 10th pick and a top end player all they want. Nobody offers it.

Imagine the forward core turnaround after these outcomes...
* Panthers pick for Lafreneire and MLS gets him to produce like he was expected to
* Habs win the draft lottery (Bedard)
* Dubois as a UFA signing in 2024

 

[SwiftyHab]

If the Panthers pick ends up the 10th pick, would you trade that straight up for Lafreniere? Rangers can ask for the 10th pick and a top end player all they want. Nobody offers it.

Imagine the forward core turnaround after these outcomes...
* Panthers pick for Lafreneire and MLS gets him to produce like he was expected to
* Habs win the draft lottery (Bedard)
* Dubois as a UFA signing in 2024

Yes

 

[Habs Halifax]

I’ll find you the quotes when I get time but all new coaches make players play better out of fear of being sent down to losing minutes and just to impress. Players literally don’t need coaches lol

Coaches are a factor. You can take your "literally" narrative somewhere else. Ponder these two things and you will see the point.

Player accomplishments vs Coaching
or
Team accomplishments vs Coaching

 

[Galaxydoggystyle]

FLA fans must be hate-reading this thread and cursing us.

I don't know why but I have been banned from even looking at the Panthers board and I don't even post in there threads. I don't know what you guys did but some of yall must have pissed off the panther mods.

 

[Whalers Fan]

If the Panthers pick ends up the 10th pick, would you trade that straight up for Lafreniere? Rangers can ask for the 10th pick and a top end player all they want. Nobody offers it.

That has similar vibes for me as Sergachev for Drouin, so I would be reluctant to go down that path again.

 

[Habs Halifax]

That has similar vibes for me as Sergachev for Drouin, so I would be reluctant to go down that path again.

Fair but the difference here is Drouin is not Lafreniere (and vice versa) and the 10th pick is not Sergachev who was already drafted and played a few NHL games.

You're thinking about two extremes on opposite ends which is not probable for both to happen.
* Lafreniere disappoints like Drouin
* The 10th pick turns into a top line/top pairing asset like Sergachev.

I'm assuming you were you afraid of the Romaonv/Dach flip? Do you think Nesar turns into someone better than both of them?

 

[SwiftyHab]

I don't know why but I have been banned from even looking at the Panthers board and I don't even post in there threads. I don't know what you guys did but some of yall must have pissed off the panther mods.

I got called out for “reaction trolling” in that I was a Habs fan who liked one of their posts.

I’ve never considered myself to be a troll before. I don’t even like the movie trolls. But evidently I am one.

 

[tazsub3]

Current odds on the morning of Jan 2:

01.0% chance at BOTH Top-2 picks
25.8% chance at one Top-2 pick, of which:

08.2% chance it is Top-2 plus 7th​

14.6% chance it is Top-2 plus 8th​

03.0% chance it is Top-2 plus 9th​

34.1% chance we draft 6th and 8th
33.2% chance we draft 7th plus 8th/9th
05.9% chance we draft 8th plus 9th/10th

thank you for that , and for every day you update the odds

 

[Habs Halifax]

Current odds on the morning of Jan 2:

01.0% chance at BOTH Top-2 picks
25.8% chance at one Top-2 pick, of which:

08.2% chance it is Top-2 plus 7th​

14.6% chance it is Top-2 plus 8th​

03.0% chance it is Top-2 plus 9th​

34.1% chance we draft 6th and 8th
33.2% chance we draft 7th plus 8th/9th
05.9% chance we draft 8th plus 9th/10th

What I get from this is this... 60% chance both picks are either 1,2 or 6-8 range.

 

[jaffy27]

Currently in spot to draft Yager & Sale.

That would rule.

Or Michkov and Barlow…..

2 top 8 picks (4 and 8) would send this team into eventual greatness

 

[Habs Halifax]

I don't know why but I have been banned from even looking at the Panthers board and I don't even post in there threads. I don't know what you guys did but some of yall must have pissed off the panther mods.

I haven't even thought about going to their boards once. Remember the Patch trade discussions back when with the Panthers fans? "Borgstrom" is untouchable. Thank god they had him as an untouchable and same with Glass with the Knights.

 

[xX SEYF Xx]

Loss of secondary scoring in Duclair and Marchment is also a bit underrated

 

[SwiftyHab]

Panthers fans seems to be preparing for a sell-off.

 

[atrud66]

The last few pages of the Panthers' most recent game thread is recommended reading

 

[SOLR]

Currently in spot to draft Yager & Sale.

That would rule.

That would solidify the top 6 that's for sure. Yager seems to be turning the corner at center, I'm quietly confident he can play there in the NHL - he has the IQ, speed and defence.

I love Sale, but I think we would go for Will Smith if only for positional balance (RW) in this case (if given the opportunity).

Caufield - Suzuki - Smith
Slaf - Yager - Mesar

 

[StCaufield]

Coaches are a factor. You can take your "literally" narrative somewhere else. Ponder these two things and you will see the point.

Player accomplishments vs Coaching
or
Team accomplishments vs Coaching

How about I take my listening to the actual players which are facts. You’re straw manning it. Johnny Hockey said in an interview in the summer that coaches may have little adjustments but at the end of the day it’s up to the player. Aka players know how to play every system they’re NHL players lol coaches aren’t that important. He said playing for Sutter was great and he was straight forward which he liked. You can like playing for a coach and young players love the pre game speeches (vets have heard all the cliche speeches and roll their eyes according to Ferraro). When a new coach comes players want to be on the new coaches good side so they have a spark. Look at Montreal it’s a perfect example. When MSL took over the team was absolutely deadly and started winning games as it’s a new chapter and excitement. Then at the end of the year you’d think Ducharme is back. Same with this year. Coaches can say we are going to play a a 2-3-2 or a diamond on the power play. Build confidence in players or destroy them. That’s all the do. LITERALLY.