Speculation: Firesale?

[Sidney the Kidney]

The chances of landing another Lemieux and Jagr and Crosby and Malkin are extremely extremely low. So the Pens might not ever get these types of players again for 20 years or so. However the game has changed so much where you must have very good defenseman if you are going any where in the playoffs..Always been the case about good goal tending..

Imagine the pressure on the kid even if the Pens did manage to land the 1st overall pick. He could turn out to be a star player, but would still fall short of some expectations because we're used to our 1st overall guys being top 10 players all time like Lemieux and Crosby.

 

[Gurglesons]

Just wanted to highlight this.

I'm sure, at some point, Buffalo fans figured they were doing some little five year "whoopsie we're a miserable pile of garbage but hey look at these lotto picks!" jaunt.

How's that goin? Far from guaranteed. That team has been utterly irrelevant since like Hasek. And honestly there are other examples not too far off.

Obviously you gotta move on at some point. The world doesn't stand still. But I'm in no hurry.

Yeah. Exactly. Going scorched earth is a terrible idea. Identify five or six players you want to lead us to through the next couple years. I think it probably comes down to one of Malkin and Letang. But if they aren't signed by the deadline and we are out of the playoffs. You move them both.

 

[Gurglesons]

Hard to say tbh. All the years blend together after a while. I don't remember a ton about his regular season performance that year.

I do remember that he had a rough time in the playoffs that year, but he wasn't alone there.

Expected measurements are what show ZAR as a great forward. I dunno. I don't really have much time for that model right now.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Imagine the pressure on the kid even if the Pens did manage to land the 1st overall pick. He could turn out to be a star player, but would still fall short of some expectations because we're used to our 1st overall guys being top 10 players all time like Lemieux and Crosby.

I don't think the pressure's any higher than any other #1 overall pick going to a bottom feeder, expected to dramatically alter the franchise for the better.

We're not getting another Sid, or Mario, or Geno for the rest of our lives. That's the safe bet. Anyone (not you, in general) who thinks any top-3 or #1 overall pick has to fill those shoes/expectations is an oaf.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I don't think the pressure's any higher than any other #1 overall pick going to a bottom feeder, expected to dramatically alter the franchise for the better.

We're not getting another Sid, or Mario, or Geno for the rest of our lives. That's the safe bet. Anyone (not you, in general) who thinks any top-3 or #1 overall pick has to fill those shoes/expectations is an oaf.

Are you new to HF? This website thinks that anyone drafted in the first round, even 30th overall, is going to be a perennial top 10 scorer.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Yeah. Exactly. Going scorched earth is a terrible idea. Identify five or six players you want to lead us to through the next couple years. I think it probably comes down to one of Malkin and Letang. But if they aren't signed by the deadline and we are out of the playoffs. You move them both.

Yeah. Difficult to argue otherwise.

Sorta depends with Malkin, though. I think he would understand and accept a trade. But I dunno. I think people sometimes underestimate his loyalty to this team. He might just rather f*** off back to Russia after the season is over. Probably not but... eh... he's tougher to read, to me.

 

[Pancakes]

Expected measurements are what show ZAR as a great forward. I dunno. I don't really have much time for that model right now.

They mostly say he's great defensively. Maybe he is. But it doesn't matter a whole lot if he's a black hole of offense, which he seems to be so far this year.

 

[Gurglesons]

Yeah. Difficult to argue otherwise.

Sorta depends with Malkin, though. I think he would understand and accept a trade. But I dunno. I think people sometimes underestimate his loyalty to this team. He might just rather f*** off back to Russia after the season is over. Probably not but... eh... he's tougher to read, to me.

If he is so loyal, why wouldn't he sign? I don't understand why they haven't signed, but if we are out of the playoffs I think you have the conversation. Here's what we can offer if you don't accept we are going to need to trade you.

 

[Gurglesons]

They mostly say he's great defensively. Maybe he is. But it doesn't matter a whole lot if he's a black hole of offense, which he seems to be so far this year.

Is he that great defensively though? I don't really have a problem with ZAR, but I don't watch him and think top ten defensive player in the league. I see low risk player on offense and defense who routinely gets cleaned when he's against skill player.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

If he is so loyal, why wouldn't he sign?

I would assume in this hypothetical because it was never offered.

And instead of starting over somewhere else I could see him simply saying "no thanks I'll retire from the NHL and play for my hometown like I've indicated I've wanted to do in the past."

Maybe maybe not.

 

[Gurglesons]

I would assume in this hypothetical because it was never offered.

And instead of starting over somewhere else I could see him simply saying "no thanks I'll retire from the NHL and play for my hometown like I've indicated I've wanted to do in the past."

Maybe maybe not.

If the Penguins don't offer Malkin a contract, I don't know what to say and I can not see that happening.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Is he that great defensively though? I don't really have a problem with ZAR, but I don't watch him and think top ten defensive player in the league. I see low risk player on offense and defense who routinely gets cleaned when he's against skill player.

I think the bolded is exactly the issue with these analytics. They don't really account for play style.

For instance, I don't think ZAR is better defensively than a guy like Brad Marchand. The difference is Marchand might give up more chances against because his style will cause him to turn over the puck more or he'll cheat for offense more if he thinks he can get a breakaway. It's not "bad defense", it's more so taking offensive chances.

ZAR takes very little chances so he's not going to be caught cheating and he's going to dump a puck in deep every single time he hits the red line, so he won't be turning the puck over trying to gain the offensive zone by stickhandling it in. ZAR's entire style is "devote all energy at getting the puck out of your zone". Players with more offensive ability will try to maintain possession more often, and thus, will result in occasionally more chances against when those attempts fail.

It would be like taking two batters in baseball. One batter's entire purpose is to get a bat on the ball, even though it results in nothing but slap singles and bunts because his entire purpose is to play "safe" and not strike out. So he ends up batting .270 and only strikes out 30 times in a season, but also only hits 3 homeruns all year. Meanwhile, a batter whose concern is actually creating offense will take massive swings more often, resulting in more strike outs. But it'll also result in 40 homeruns. ZAR's the 9th hitter who bunts and slaps singles, but rarely actually contributes to big innings with one swing of the bat.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

If the Penguins don't offer Malkin a contract, I don't know what to say and I can not see that happening.

Why not? If, like you said, they are out of the playoffs, attendance is down, there is no cavalry on the way and a questionable-at-best immediate future as far as contention lies ahead in the twilight of these guys' careers... why not just straight up cut bait? I don't REALLY agree but it's an option. You can move Letang with retention and get whatever you can for Malkin if anything. Make it the other team's problem to worry about contract extensions.

Oh sure maybe the Penguins shove some token 5M dollar offer in front of him in case he or his agent has gone insane but that doesn't really count.

Maybe I'm overlooking something here but that doesn't seem all that unrealistic when looking at a "worst-case" kind of season.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I'd guess Geno packing up and heading back to Russia is a pretty far reach. If anything, I'm like 90% sure he'll stick around and retire when Sid does in a few years. I'm less certain of Letang based on the current market of #1 d-men in the NHL. I still want to say he'll stick around, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if he tested the FA market and got offers we simply couldn't, and shouldn't compete with.

But once Letang's gone, that's it. Just trade everybody not nailed down. You're not getting anything close to what he does for this team in FA and sure as shit aren't gonna find it in a trade with what we have to part with.

-edit- It's not how I'd approach things. I'd shop Letang and Rust at the deadline and pick the best return possible with an eye on the future. Let Sid and Geno decide what they wanna do this summer. If they want to stick around, so be it. If they want to walk/retire (Geno) or be dealt (Sid), so be it. Then I'd work on shipping out Jake, Kap, Dumo, etc. over the following 12 months.

 

[Gurglesons]

Why not? If, like you said, they are out of the playoffs, attendance is down, there is no cavalry on the way and a questionable-at-best immediate future as far as contention lies ahead in the twilight of these guys' careers... why not just straight up cut bait? I don't REALLY agree but it's an option. You can move Letang with retention and get whatever you can for Malkin if anything. Make it the other team's problem to worry about contract extensions.

Oh sure maybe the Penguins shove some token 5M dollar offer in front of him in case he or his agent has gone insane but that doesn't really count.

Maybe I'm overlooking something here but that doesn't seem all that unrealistic when looking at a "worst-case" kind of season.

I think the front office could maybe do that with Letang. No chance Lemieux let's them do that with Malkin.

 

[Pancakes]

Is he that great defensively though? I don't really have a problem with ZAR, but I don't watch him and think top ten defensive player in the league. I see low risk player on offense and defense who routinely gets cleaned when he's against skill player.

Maybe what he is doing defensively is just less visible to the naked eye? I mean when you watch like...Pavel Datsyuk. His defensive brilliance is obvious. He's constantly picking pockets, knocking pucks down, etc.

Maybe ZAR is just quietly good positionally and does a good job of getting pucks out of his end/ not making risky plays with it at the opposing blueline. In short, maybe what makes him good defensively are just the little things that we take for granted.

I don't know if that's the case or not - just speculating. But I have noticed he seems good at those things, so maybe that's why the analytics are so high on him.

I'd be interested to hear Jesse's explanation on ZAR, but I don't see Jesse post here often (or at all?) any more, so I dunno if he is reading these threads. Maybe I'll bug him on twitter and see if he answers. He's actually probably the most responsive Pens writer on twitter. I've tweeted things to Yohe etc and rarely gotten a response, but Jesse actually responds most times when I reach out. He's pretty cool.

 

[Gurglesons]

I think the bolded is exactly the issue with these analytics. They don't really account for play style.

For instance, I don't think ZAR is better defensively than a guy like Brad Marchand. The difference is Marchand might give up more chances against because his style will cause him to turn over the puck more or he'll cheat for offense more if he thinks he can get a breakaway. It's not "bad defense", it's more so taking offensive chances.

ZAR takes very little chances so he's not going to be caught cheating and he's going to dump a puck in deep every single time he hits the red line, so he won't be turning the puck over trying to gain the offensive zone by stickhandling it in. ZAR's entire style is "devote all energy at getting the puck out of your zone". Players with more offensive ability will try to maintain possession more often, and thus, will result in occasionally more chances against when those attempts fail.

It would be like taking two batters in baseball. One batter's entire purpose is to get a bat on the ball, even though it results in nothing but slap singles and bunts because his entire purpose is to play "safe" and not strike out. So he ends up batting .270 and only strikes out 30 times in a season, but also only hits 3 homeruns all year. Meanwhile, a batter whose concern is actually creating offense will take massive swings more often, resulting in more strike outs. But it'll also result in 40 homeruns. ZAR's the 9th hitter who bunts and slaps singles, but rarely actually contributes to big innings with one swing of the bat.

I don't think it's fair to say ZAR is an effective analytical player at this point. Despite what his expected metrics show.

 

[Gurglesons]

Maybe what he is doing defensively is just less visible to the naked eye? I mean when you watch like...Pavel Datsyuk. His defensive brilliance is obvious. He's constantly picking pockets, knocking pucks down, etc.

Maybe ZAR is just quietly good positionally and does a good job of getting pucks out of his end/ not making risky plays with it at the opposing blueline. In short, maybe what makes him good defensively are just the little things that we take for granted.

I don't know if that's the case or not - just speculating. But I have noticed he seems good at those things, so maybe that's why the analytics are so high on him.

I'd be interested to hear Jesse's explanation on ZAR, but I don't see Jesse post here often (or at all?) any more, so I dunno if he is reading these threads. Maybe I'll bug him on twitter and see if he answers. He's actually probably the most responsive Pens writer on twitter. I've tweeted things to Yohe etc and rarely gotten a response, but Jesse actually responds most times when I reach out. He's pretty cool.

He's a fan of ZAR. Ultimately though I think we've seen the BART line and now the new iteration of it be very effective in the regular season and then completely collapse every playoffs.

I guess my question is if ZAR is so effective defensively and such a hound on the forecheck why does he not work really well with say Malkin and Kessel or Malkin and Kapanen?

 

[Pancakes]

I'd guess Geno packing up and heading back to Russia is a pretty far reach. If anything, I'm like 90% sure he'll stick around and retire when Sid does in a few years. I'm less certain of Letang based on the current market of #1 d-men in the NHL. I still want to say he'll stick around, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if he tested the FA market and got offers we simply couldn't, and shouldn't compete with.

But once Letang's gone, that's it. Just trade everybody not nailed down. You're not getting anything close to what he does for this team in FA and sure as shit aren't gonna find it in a trade with what we have to part with.

-edit- It's not how I'd approach things. I'd shop Letang and Rust at the deadline and pick the best return possible with an eye on the future. Let Sid and Geno decide what they wanna do this summer. If they want to stick around, so be it. If they want to walk/retire (Geno) or be dealt (Sid), so be it. Then I'd work on shipping out Jake, Kap, Dumo, etc. over the following 12 months.

I think Geno would go back to Russia only if the Pens didn't want to re-sign him. I just flat out don't see him signing or wanting to be traded elsewhere. He's not a guy who wants a ton of media attention or to uproot himself and deal with learning a new city, etc. He's happy to let Sid do that stuff so he can just focus on hockey.

Letang I think would go elsewhere if the Pens lowballed him enough, or if they just wanted him to move on. Tanger absolutely loves being a Penguin and it would be devastating to him I think to leave but I don't see him having the same reluctance as Geno if it came down to it.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I think the front office could maybe do that with Letang. No chance Lemieux let's them do that with Malkin.

Maybe so. I'm definitely reaching a little, here. No doubt.

But I mean... this shit can get pretty cutthroat when it comes right down to it. Ya know... "it's a business" and all that jazz.

So long, and thanks for all the fish. Er... Cups. Whatever.

 

[Pens1566]

Stats are for nerds and computers.

I read this in the voice of Stan Gable.

 

[Pancakes]

He's a fan of ZAR. Ultimately though I think we've seen the BART line and now the new iteration of it be very effective in the regular season and then completely collapse every playoffs.

I guess my question is if ZAR is so effective defensively and such a hound on the forecheck why does he not work really well with say Malkin and Kessel or Malkin and Kapanen?

I know he likes ZAR but I haven't seen him breakdown via the Athletic or otherwise exactly WHY the defensive models rate ZAR so highly. What is he doing that is leading to those results? I'd love to see him break that down with film the way he does. I've watched/played for years and normally the analytics tend to line up with what my eyes tell me, but man if they aren't confusing with ZAR.

 

[Gurglesons]

I know he likes ZAR but I haven't seen him breakdown via the Athletic or otherwise exactly WHY the defensive models rate ZAR so highly. What is he doing that is leading to those results? I'd love to see him break that down with film the way he does. I've watched/played for years and normally the analytics tend to line up with what my eyes tell me, but man if they aren't confusing with ZAR.

I think the above is fine. It's why the Islanders beat us. But realistically if the refs don't call the game a certain way and allow skill to add up those players are useless. And the Penguins do not get the game called that way.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

He's a fan of ZAR. Ultimately though I think we've seen the BART line and now the new iteration of it be very effective in the regular season and then completely collapse every playoffs.

I guess my question is if ZAR is so effective defensively and such a hound on the forecheck why does he not work really well with say Malkin and Kessel or Malkin and Kapanen?

f***ing right?!?

Why isn't this talked about more at least when ZAR is the topic?

I hear the word "elite" bandied around a downright reckless amount of times. But dude can't get off the fourth line.

You'd think someone elite at defense/forecheck/boardwork would be a terrific complimentary player for an all-offense line. Not that I'd EVER want to actually see that *shudder*

 

[Pancakes]

I think the above is fine. It's why the Islanders beat us. But realistically if the refs don't call the game a certain way and allow skill to add up those players are useless. And the Penguins do not get the game called that way.

That's an interesting read, thanks for sharing. So it does jive similarly to what my eyes were telling me. Good to know I'm not always blind with my hockey opinions, only most of the time.

I especially like the part about what ZAR does being unwatchable hockey. I think that definitely makes a lot of sense as we all hate to watch him play even if the analytics love him. He's just so boring