Speculation: Firesale?

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think Geno would go back to Russia only if the Pens didn't want to re-sign him. I just flat out don't see him signing or wanting to be traded elsewhere. He's not a guy who wants a ton of media attention or to uproot himself and deal with learning a new city, etc. He's happy to let Sid do that stuff so he can just focus on hockey.

Letang I think would go elsewhere if the Pens lowballed him enough, or if they just wanted him to move on. Tanger absolutely loves being a Penguin and it would be devastating to him I think to leave but I don't see him having the same reluctance as Geno if it came down to it.

It's a possibility, but we've heard multiple times that Geno's really, really gunning to be the only Russian to ever win four Cups. If that's true, he'd be open to going to a contender to play for one last shot. If that's overblown, I think he'd much prefer to stick around and ride off into the sunset with Sid.

With Letang, I think he's probably sick and tired of being on or near the trade block whenever things get bumpy. We saw it in several playoff exit interviews where he just looked pissed or frustrated with the questions lobbed at him and answered with vague "Yeah, I don't know, we'll see what happens. I'm not in charge." JR's gone, so that's something, but I do think he and his camp are looking around at all the deals these top d-men are getting (albeit younger) and he has to be thinking something in the range of $8.5-9 million for a couple years. I think it'd be a mistake to re-sign him. Hell, I think it's gonna be a huge mistake to not deal him at the deadline for a potential king's ransom.

After the Habs series, Geno said--pretty much verbatim--"we know we only have a couple shots left at this". They know change is coming. Whether it be the roster being stripped down and a new chapter starting, or whether it means their careers are winding down or whatever. I don't think any of these guys will be blindsided by whatever happens.

But again, I'll go on record as expecting Geno to stick around with a 3-year, $24 million deal, and Letang will get a 3-year, $27 million deal. We'll let Rust walk because we simply can't rip that band-aid off. Sully will still be coaching this team in October. /shrug

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

You could roll ZAR up in a rug and drop him off in a closet like a scene from Looney Toons and nobody would ever f***ing notice his absence in the lineup. It's nails on a chalkboard annoying to see the analytics gurus constantly pretend like he's some crucial piece, an unheralded master at his craft.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

I know he likes ZAR but I haven't seen him breakdown via the Athletic or otherwise exactly WHY the defensive models rate ZAR so highly. What is he doing that is leading to those results? I'd love to see him break that down with film the way he does. I've watched/played for years and normally the analytics tend to line up with what my eyes tell me, but man if they aren't confusing with ZAR.

Here's a breakdown by Jfresh. It's slightly outdated now, but things probably haven't changed too much.
Zach Aston-Reese has the Best Defensive Stats in the NHL. How?! (substack.com)

 

[Ugene Magic]

I know it will completely blindside people who are familiar with my opinions but advanced statistics in hockey are still a... uh... EVOLVING, let's say, method.

I'm not even sure how much the teams are going by the analytical numbers anyways. At some point you just got to push it aside. Totally ruining the fan side of things, and adding more advanced statistical charts and such is just too much. I can't stand when people come here to ask about players for fantasy crap that I don't do and chase multiple threads to try and get that info. Do your own research. Annoying as ****!

Don't they have fantasy sites for that crap....I don't give two shits....

I think that should be a site rule not to bother team boards for fantasy crap. Go to the main boards.

Fantasy shit is just ruining it all.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I think the above is fine. It's why the Islanders beat us. But realistically if the refs don't call the game a certain way and allow skill to add up those players are useless. And the Penguins do not get the game called that way.

To be honest, I don't see ZAR doing much of 1, 2, or 3. The only things he's good at are 4 and 5 on that list.

Is it any wonder that guys like ZAR, Riley Nash, etc. have good "defensive metrics"? It's because they play a simple game taking zero offensive risks.

Personally, I think those guys have limited value in the playoffs where everyone starts to play smarter defense and you need actual talent to break open games when both teams are basically trapping and clutching.

 

[Gurglesons]

I'm not even sure how much the teams are going by the analytical numbers anyways. At some point you just got to push it aside. Totally ruining the fan side of things, and adding more advanced statistical charts and such is just too much. I can't stand when people come here to ask about players for fantasy crap that I don't do and chase multiple threads to try and get that info. Do your own research. Annoying as ****!

Don't they have fantasy sites for that crap....I don't give two shits....

I think that should be a site rule not to bother team boards for fantasy crap. Go to the main boards.

Fantasy shit is just ruining it all.

Tampa and Colorado have invested tons of money into their analytics departments.

How the Lightning's Michael Peterson became an NHL analytics pioneer

 

[Gurglesons]

To be honest, I don't see ZAR doing much of 1, 2, or 3. The only things he's good at are 4 and 5 on that list.

Is it any wonder that guys like ZAR, Riley Nash, etc. have good "defensive metrics"? It's because they play a simple game taking zero offensive risks.

Personally, I think those guys have limited value in the playoffs where everyone starts to play smarter defense and you need actual talent to break open games when both teams are basically trapping and clutching.

ZAR is very good at forechecking and holding the puck on the boards. It's the one thing he does really well tbh.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

You could roll ZAR up in a rug and drop him off in a closet like a scene from Looney Toons and nobody would ever f***ing notice his absence in the lineup. It's nails on a chalkboard annoying to see the analytics gurus constantly pretend like he's some crucial piece, an unheralded master at his craft.

I don't even really have a problem with the guy. It's just like... this team MUST always have some try-hard Craig Adams story for everyone to latch on to and get all indignant about and it's aggravating.

I'm not even sure how much the teams are going by the analytical numbers anyways. At some point you just got to push it aside. Totally ruining the fan side of things, and adding more advanced statistical charts and such is just too much. I can't stand when people come here to ask about players for fantasy crap that I don't do and chase multiple threads to try and get that info. Do your own research. Annoying as ****!

Don't they have fantasy sites for that crap....I don't give two shits....

I think that should be a site rule not to bother team boards for fantasy crap. Go to the main boards.

Fantasy shit is just ruining it all.

Oh teams take them seriously but they use their own models.

I think they have their use. There is nothing wrong with more data. But I'm not exaggerating when I say the models available to us are still evolving and I get a little peeved sometimes when people quote them as gospel.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Like I don't even really have a problem with the guy. It's just like... this team MUST always have some try-hard Craig Adams story for everyone to latch on to and get all indignant about and it's aggravating.

It's just a microcosm of the NHL at large. This league loves its nobody dipshit grinders while simultaneously scoffing at any sort of flow, creativity or excitement. It's why teams like the Isles do well in the playoffs after mediocre showings in the regular season. It's why nobody raised an eyebrow or questioned a garbage Jets team sweeping an Oilers team with two of the absolute best offensive talents in the game--one of which just put up like video game numbers in the regular season. And it's why when we replace Sully, the next guy will fawn over some dipshit grinder nobody and we'll all be annoyed with that dynamic too.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

It's just a microcosm of the NHL at large. This league loves its nobody dipshit grinders while simultaneously scoffing at any sort of flow, creativity or excitement. It's why teams like the Isles do well in the playoffs after mediocre showings in the regular season. It's why nobody raised an eyebrow or questioned a garbage Jets team sweeping an Oilers team with two of the absolute best offensive talents in the game--one of which just put up like video game numbers in the regular season. And it's why when we replace Sully, the next guy will fawn over some dipshit grinder nobody and we'll all be annoyed with that dynamic too.

Yeah... league of dinosaurs like I have always said.

They elevate the bottom rung in order to Harrison Bergeron the ACTUAL talent and real entertainment in the league. And are like... proud of it.

 

[Gurglesons]

It's just a microcosm of the NHL at large. This league loves its nobody dipshit grinders while simultaneously scoffing at any sort of flow, creativity or excitement. It's why teams like the Isles do well in the playoffs after mediocre showings in the regular season. It's why nobody raised an eyebrow or questioned a garbage Jets team sweeping an Oilers team with two of the absolute best offensive talents in the game--one of which just put up like video game numbers in the regular season. And it's why when we replace Sully, the next guy will fawn over some dipshit grinder nobody and we'll all be annoyed with that dynamic too.

Winnipeg has one of the most exciting forward groups in the league.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Yeah, I don't know. ZAR is a complete nobody. He's not like, a detriment like Tanner Glass or Lafferty, but he just does... Nothing.

Nobody should value him. Not a bottom feeder, not a contender, not a middling team like us. He's a nothingmancer.

 

[Pens1566]

Yeah, I don't know. ZAR is a complete nobody. He's not like, a detriment like Tanner Glass or Lafferty, but he just does... Nothing.

Nobody should value him. Not a bottom feeder, not a contender, not a middling team like us. He's a nothingmancer.

There's literally no offense, on either end, when he's on the ice. Black hole.

 

[Pancakes]

It's a possibility, but we've heard multiple times that Geno's really, really gunning to be the only Russian to ever win four Cups. If that's true, he'd be open to going to a contender to play for one last shot. If that's overblown, I think he'd much prefer to stick around and ride off into the sunset with Sid.

With Letang, I think he's probably sick and tired of being on or near the trade block whenever things get bumpy. We saw it in several playoff exit interviews where he just looked pissed or frustrated with the questions lobbed at him and answered with vague "Yeah, I don't know, we'll see what happens. I'm not in charge." JR's gone, so that's something, but I do think he and his camp are looking around at all the deals these top d-men are getting (albeit younger) and he has to be thinking something in the range of $8.5-9 million for a couple years. I think it'd be a mistake to re-sign him. Hell, I think it's gonna be a huge mistake to not deal him at the deadline for a potential king's ransom.

After the Habs series, Geno said--pretty much verbatim--"we know we only have a couple shots left at this". They know change is coming. Whether it be the roster being stripped down and a new chapter starting, or whether it means their careers are winding down or whatever. I don't think any of these guys will be blindsided by whatever happens.

But again, I'll go on record as expecting Geno to stick around with a 3-year, $24 million deal, and Letang will get a 3-year, $27 million deal. We'll let Rust walk because we simply can't rip that band-aid off. Sully will still be coaching this team in October. /shrug

I think you also have to look at though like...what cup contender would even have the cap space to sign a Malkin or a Letang?

 

[Ugene Magic]

Tampa and Colorado have invested tons of money into their analytics departments.

How the Lightning's Michael Peterson became an NHL analytics pioneer

That's fine, where it belongs. But for us fans who are not fantasy driven, that's getting into a lot of nonsense and time consuming for what?

I know this, for all of those defensive stats that line has, it has not brought about anything positive when it matters. Literally, just about zero. You don't need fancy stats to figure that out and see you are not getting enough positive plays vs the defensive sectors play. They can't be equal or a wash, you need positive numbers meaning in output. Goals, assists, points in general. They are stagnate precisely when you need it the most when you go to best on best competition. Exactly why the regular season and those analytical stats don't mean shit.

Analytical crap is like the new plague.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

That's fine, where it belongs. But for us fans who are not fantasy driven, that's getting into a lot of nonsense and time consuming for what?

I know this, for all of those defensive stats that line has, it has not brought about anything positive when it matters. Literally, just about zero. You don't need fancy stats to figure that out and see you are not getting enough positive plays vs the defensive sectors play. They can't be equal or a wash, you need positive numbers meaning in output. Goals, assists, points in general. They are stagnate precisely when you need it the most when you go to best on best competition. Exactly why the regular season and those analytical stats don't mean shit.

Analytical crap is like the new plague.

I think you are absolutely entitled to your opinion. But would posit that the "enemy" here aren't advanced stats but those who smarmily strut around waving them in your face and telling you that what you are seeing out there with eyeballs and experience are ackchyually wrong.

 

[Gurglesons]

That's fine, where it belongs. But for us fans who are not fantasy driven, that's getting into a lot of nonsense and time consuming for what?

I know this, for all of those defensive stats that line has, it has not brought about anything positive when it matters. Literally, just about zero. You don't need fancy stats to figure that out and see you are not getting enough positive plays vs the defensive sectors play. They can't be equal or a wash, you need positive numbers meaning in output. Goals, assists, points in general. They are stagnate precisely when you need it the most when you go to best on best competition. Exactly why the regular season and those analytical stats don't mean shit.

Analytical crap is like the new plague.

I don’t see anything about saying a line is solid defensively analytically saying they are going to win the playoffs and odds are odds. If everything turned out like the odds you’d end up with a sport like baseball where nobody watches because there is no human element.

 

[Freeptop]

Given that several key players are still effectively recovering from Covid, I'm not ready to write off the season yet.
Granted, I'm also not ready to expect a trip to the playoffs, either. I'm still pretty much 50/50 as to which way this goes.

So, check back in, say, January. At that point:

If they've moved into the top 2 of the division, I'd consider buying. Even then, I wouldn't be looking to swing for the fences. Another deal similar to the Carter deal would be fine, but no blockbusters involving 1st or 2nd round picks, or top prospects.

If they're a bubble team, I'd probably look for hockey trades (NHL player for NHL player type deals), but not move any prospects or picks. Otherwise, stand-pat.

If they're clearly out of it, I'd sell of the UFAs for as much as I could get, with the caveat that since Malkin and Letang have NTCs, there's a level of return where the team would do better just to keep them to sell tickets for the rest of the season than accept a poor return. If you can't at least get a 1st or 2nd plus good prospect for each of them, then don't bother. I think there is still a decent amount of talent left on the team to build around that I don't think it's worth burning it all down just yet, especially when they'll have plenty of cap space ($33M!) to work with in trades or UFA signings over the summer.

 

[Gurglesons]

Given that several key players are still effectively recovering from Covid, I'm not ready to write off the season yet.
Granted, I'm also not ready to expect a trip to the playoffs, either. I'm still pretty much 50/50 as to which way this goes.

So, check back in, say, January. At that point:

If they've moved into the top 2 of the division, I'd consider buying. Even then, I wouldn't be looking to swing for the fences. Another deal similar to the Carter deal would be fine, but no blockbusters involving 1st or 2nd round picks, or top prospects.

If they're a bubble team, I'd probably look for hockey trades (NHL player for NHL player type deals), but not move any prospects or picks. Otherwise, stand-pat.

If they're clearly out of it, I'd sell of the UFAs for as much as I could get, with the caveat that since Malkin and Letang have NTCs, there's a level of return where the team would do better just to keep them to sell tickets for the rest of the season than accept a poor return. If you can't at least get a 1st or 2nd plus good prospect for each of them, then don't bother. I think there is still a decent amount of talent left on the team to build around that I don't think it's worth burning it all down just yet, especially when they'll have plenty of cap space ($33M!) to work with in trades or UFA signings over the summer.

100% agree with all of this.

 

[Ryder71]

Given that several key players are still effectively recovering from Covid, I'm not ready to write off the season yet.
Granted, I'm also not ready to expect a trip to the playoffs, either. I'm still pretty much 50/50 as to which way this goes.

So, check back in, say, January. At that point:

If they've moved into the top 2 of the division, I'd consider buying. Even then, I wouldn't be looking to swing for the fences. Another deal similar to the Carter deal would be fine, but no blockbusters involving 1st or 2nd round picks, or top prospects.

If they're a bubble team, I'd probably look for hockey trades (NHL player for NHL player type deals), but not move any prospects or picks. Otherwise, stand-pat.

If they're clearly out of it, I'd sell of the UFAs for as much as I could get, with the caveat that since Malkin and Letang have NTCs, there's a level of return where the team would do better just to keep them to sell tickets for the rest of the season than accept a poor return. If you can't at least get a 1st or 2nd plus good prospect for each of them, then don't bother. I think there is still a decent amount of talent left on the team to build around that I don't think it's worth burning it all down just yet, especially when they'll have plenty of cap space ($33M!) to work with in trades or UFA signings over the summer.

Letang CAN be traded to 18 teams, he can be moved, and if we retain salary we could garner a huge return. If you're out of it (which we will be) you absolutely trade him!

 

[CascadiaPenguin]

Tampa and Colorado have invested tons of money into their analytics departments.

How the Lightning's Michael Peterson became an NHL analytics pioneer

That is a great read. My #2 Kraken have invested a lot in analytics too, but maybe it takes some time? TB was swept by CBJ in round 1, right? ;-)

 

[Gurglesons]

That is a great read. My #2 Kraken have invested a lot in analytics too, but maybe it takes some time? TB was swept by CBJ in round 1, right? ;-)

Judging by what Seattle did, they like valued analytics for half of the team and then went for big tough dudes for the other.

 

[CascadiaPenguin]

Judging by what Seattle did, they like valued analytics for half of the team and then went for big tough dudes for the other.

That is as good a take as any, I suppose. 17 games in for a new team is a bit too early to judge, and the f***ing VGKs set a bar which will likely never be duplicated, but the playoffs seem impossible at this point. The ED was crushing, particularly with respect to the lack of leveraging ANY trade/no-picks the way GMGM pulled off. Gru has sucked too, sitting at like .870 or something god awful. A lights out Fleury, smiles and all, would have been very good for this team. Kraken will likely provide a mercy killing and deal Giordano at deadline to a contender. He deserves it, totally solid dude. On the bright side, your fave ex-Pen Tanev just notched #7 tonight in game 17, tying his total with the Pens last year. Given Tanev, he may not finish above 10, but he is indisputably a crowd fave at CPA and still fun to watch (for me, at least).

 

[HandshakeLine]

ZAR is very good at forechecking and holding the puck on the boards. It's the one thing he does really well tbh.

Which would be awesome if he didn't also consistently kill plays with it too.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think you are absolutely entitled to your opinion. But would posit that the "enemy" here aren't advanced stats but those who smarmily strut around waving them in your face and telling you that what you are seeing out there with eyeballs and experience are ackchyually wrong.

"The Heatmappers and the On Pace™ers and the Acronymz"