Speculation: Firesale?

[Night Shift]

Maybe Crosby and Malkin can convince him to stay last min but seems very unlikely.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I dunno.

I understand if you are a Letang fan that something like that is concerning to read. But a lot of it comes off as rather lip-service-y to me "hockey is a business" "the Montreal Canadiens are super cool, ya'll" etc. I wouldn't at all say he's made up his mind. It was a French paper... of course he is going to be effusive.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Sounds like Letang made up his mind.

No, it sounds like he's leaving it up to the Pens. He's only saying if they wanted to be free of some old-timers. Letang is definitely the guy with miles left in his tank. I'd have no issue with them taking on a 8.0/9.0 contract. He's earned it and left far more on the table leading up to this contract he's currently on. That's why I say him and Geno should flip salaries.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Yup, he definitely fetches a 1st rounder.

Letang at 50% probably gets way more than just a 1st, imo. Don't think we'll have the guts to do it, but we should be shopping him.

Think he'd return a 1st+2nd+good prospect or a 1st+great prospect. It all comes down to finding a team he'll accept a trade to willing to pay big, and again, the team being willing to rip the band-aid off.

 

[Gurglesons]

I dunno.

I understand if you are a Letang fan that something like that is concerning to read. But a lot of it comes off as rather lip-service-y to me "hockey is a business" "the Montreal Canadiens are super cool, ya'll" etc. I wouldn't at all say he's made up his mind. It was a French paper... of course he is going to be effusive.

Also it’s a translation. And if you read the quote he’s just saying anything can happen.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Also it’s a translation. And if you read the quote he’s just saying anything can happen.

These guys are trained from a young age to say stuff without really saying stuff.

I'm not baggin' on people for discussing what IS a fascinating and very relevant topic. I guess my approach is largely going to be "let's just see what happens before getting too up or too down."

I suppose my real contention is HOW fast everyone has seemingly turned on these guys. There is no reason... yet.

 

[Pancakes]

These guys are trained from a young age to say stuff without really saying stuff.

I'm not baggin' on people for discussing what IS a fascinating and very relevant topic. I guess my approach is largely going to be "let's just see what happens before getting too up or too down."

I suppose my real contention is HOW fast everyone has seemingly turned on these guys. There is no reason... yet.

There is somewhat of a reason I suppose. Letang's analytics took a dip last year and that trend has only continued this year.



That decline doesn't figure to stop any time soon, given his age.

Probably still worth shelling out for if you intend to remain a contender because I don't see a better way to spend those bucks, but...

 

[Pancakes]

Blueger is 27 and expires to UFA.

27 is still decently young. At that age he probably has 3-5 more years of good play out of him before he starts to decline. I wouldn't overpay him but I wouldn't be in a rush to move him either.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

There is somewhat of a reason I suppose. Letang's analytics took a dip last year and that trend has only continued this year.



That decline doesn't figure to stop any time soon, given his age.

Probably still worth shelling out for if you intend to remain a contender because I don't see a better way to spend those bucks, but...

Yeah I mean Letang and Malkin are declining, Crosby too. There is no doubt. You can't outrace time and all that. But they are declining from some ridiculously lofty heights.

I guess it mostly comes down to whether you want to go full-in on taking that nosedive into utter ineptitude (and there is no guarantee that that would be a fun little five year romp like last time) or if you still think there is some meat left on the bone and aren't willing to follow a complete loser before it's actually necessary. I am much closer to the latter. I don't think the core is a problem at all and am rather baffled when people imply as much. Even at their age. However I fully admit that more than a few things AROUND them must change. Must. And I can't blame people for being skeptical, there.

 

[Pancakes]

Yeah I mean Letang and Malkin are declining, Crosby too. There is no doubt. You can't outrace time and all that. But they are declining from some ridiculously lofty heights.

I guess it mostly comes down to whether you want to go full-in on taking that nosedive into utter ineptitude (and there is no guarantee that that would be a fun little five year romp like last time) or if you still think there is some meat left on the bone and aren't willing to follow a complete loser before it's actually necessary. I am much closer to the latter. I don't think the core is a problem at all and am rather baffled when people imply as much. Even at their age. However I fully admit that more than a few things AROUND them must change. Must. And I can't blame people for being skeptical, there.

I am with you as well. I'd rather try a mini rebuild and shift around the supporting pieces, maybe get keep our draft picks for once as well, and see where that takes us. If we play it right we might be able to have our cake (keep the big 3) and eat it too (draft well + acquire young assets, and get the next wave of Pens hockey ready).

That said, if we go hard into the tank with those guys still on the roster, I might re-evaluate that. For example if Malkin comes back and we get to the deadline and we're still not a playoff team or even close...at that point it's hard to believe next year might be any better.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I am with you as well. I'd rather try a mini rebuild and shift around the supporting pieces, maybe get keep our draft picks for once as well, and see where that takes us. If we play it right we might be able to have our cake (keep the big 3) and eat it too (draft well + acquire young assets, and get the next wave of Pens hockey ready).

That said, if we go hard into the tank with those guys still on the roster, I might re-evaluate that. For example if Malkin comes back and we get to the deadline and we're still not a playoff team or even close...at that point it's hard to believe next year might be any better.

Yeah that's more than fair. Though I often think back to the last coaching change... and yes... that was years ago, now. But these guys were all playing horrible hockey (except Malkin somehow), the lineups were nonsensical, the mix was bad and everything looked "done." Then they cleaned house, made a few terrific trades to address the mix and back-in-the-day, still-have-something-to-prove Sullivan took the bull by the horns, called up some young blood, found the right lineups, made adjustments when needed and rolled.

I'm not sayin' -- I'm just sayin'

EDIT: And again just to re-emphasize... yes... I know that was many years ago and Sid/Geno/Letang were younger, before you jackals descend haha -- but I still don't think this core is SO diminished that the same logic doesn't largely apply. Though how Sid continues to recover and Malkin's knee issues are still up in the air.

 

[Gurglesons]

There is somewhat of a reason I suppose. Letang's analytics took a dip last year and that trend has only continued this year.



That decline doesn't figure to stop any time soon, given his age.

Probably still worth shelling out for if you intend to remain a contender because I don't see a better way to spend those bucks, but...

Jfresh's numbers also say his best defensive performance was 17-18. Do you agree?

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I don't think a rebuild on the fly is realistic when the big pieces are as old and banged up as Sid/Geno/Letang are, and so many supporting cast parts are flawed. I think the time to pull out the hacksaws and perform surgery on the roster was after the Habs series. Too little, too late now, imo.

It's true that draft picks are no guarantee. It's also true that the vast majority of successful teams build from within. You can't just throw your hands up and say "Well you never know how picks will turn out", imo. Free agents never come to Pittsburgh and are always mega overpriced. Likewise, guys are usually too expensive to get via trade and we're absolutely bone dry as far as valuable assets go. If/when we move on from Jake, Rust, Kap, Dumo, etc. we should be looking to acquire futures, or guys young enough to be around for the long haul.

I think Letang's easily the best of the big three, I don't care what analytics say, tbh. At worst, he's still a top pairing blueliner--if not a bonafide #1 on the huge majority of teams around the league. If you retain some on his already palatable contract, GMs will be falling over themselves to put in offers. He and Rust are pretty close to absolute must-move guys by the deadline, imo.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I also don't put a whole lot of stock into the Letang->Habs thing from the interview. I posted it yesterday in the cap thread and said it's probably just media speak and looking too deep into it. If he wants big money to cash out before he retires, he'll go to some bottom feeder with a shitload of cash to burn. If he wants to play for a legit competitor, he'll have to leave a couple million on the shelf for his shot at one final Cup. Same goes for Geno.

If they want to stick around, which I've always kinda assumed was the outcome of all this, they'll probably have to both accept less than max market value and accept that their days of competing for Cups are well over.

 

[Pancakes]

Jfresh's numbers also say his best defensive performance was 17-18. Do you agree?

Hard to say tbh. All the years blend together after a while. I don't remember a ton about his regular season performance that year.

I do remember that he had a rough time in the playoffs that year, but he wasn't alone there.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I know it will completely blindside people who are familiar with my opinions but advanced statistics in hockey are still a... uh... EVOLVING, let's say, method.

 

[Pancakes]

I don't think a rebuild on the fly is realistic when the big pieces are as old and banged up as Sid/Geno/Letang are, and so many supporting cast parts are flawed. I think the time to pull out the hacksaws and perform surgery on the roster was after the Habs series. Too little, too late now, imo.

It's true that draft picks are no guarantee. It's also true that the vast majority of successful teams build from within. You can't just throw your hands up and say "Well you never know how picks will turn out", imo. Free agents never come to Pittsburgh and are always mega overpriced. Likewise, guys are usually too expensive to get via trade and we're absolutely bone dry as far as valuable assets go. If/when we move on from Jake, Rust, Kap, Dumo, etc. we should be looking to acquire futures, or guys young enough to be around for the long haul.

I think Letang's easily the best of the big three, I don't care what analytics say, tbh. At worst, he's still a top pairing blueliner--if not a bonafide #1 on the huge majority of teams around the league. If you retain some on his already palatable contract, GMs will be falling over themselves to put in offers. He and Rust are pretty close to absolute must-move guys by the deadline, imo.

I think that's what rebuilding on the fly is also trying to do though? It's just a difference between tearing everything down versus tearing some of it down. You can absolutely move some guys for picks/prospects, keep others, and see where that leads you.

Hell in some ways that's what the Rangers have done, and they look very much on the right path to success. They did end up with some high picks out of it (though ironically those high picks have sucked...KK and Lafreniere are big disappointments) but they didn't completely tear it down and trade everything. They still have their Kreiders and Zibanejads and Panarins.

You could keep Sid/Malkin, or even Sid/Malkin/Letang, and use other players to acquire picks/keep the picks you have, and see where it leads. Entirely possible to do a rebuild that way imo.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think that's what rebuilding on the fly is also trying to do though? It's just a difference between tearing everything down versus tearing some of it down. You can absolutely move some guys for picks/prospects, keep others, and see where that leads you.

Hell in some ways that's what the Rangers have done, and they look very much on the right path to success. They did end up with some high picks out of it (though ironically those high picks have sucked...KK and Lafreniere are big disappointments) but they didn't completely tear it down and trade everything. They still have their Kreiders and Zibanejads and Panarins.

You could keep Sid/Malkin, or even Sid/Malkin/Letang, and use other players to acquire picks/keep the picks you have, and see where it leads. Entirely possible to do a rebuild that way imo.

I don't think we're getting anything that helps in the immediate future when we part out the machine, is I guess what I'm trying to say. You're probably not gonna get a younger and/or better version of Jake, or Rust, or Kap, or Zucker, or Dumo, for any of those guys. At this stage you probably have to just load up on picks or prospects who have already been drafted but are guys we'd like to build around and we like their potential ceiling.

The core isn't getting better or more durable as they age. If they stick around, it's literally only for the Queen's wave as they do a farewell tour. Nostalgia, legacies, whatever buzzword you wanna use. I'm not sure whether the new ownership will be keen on keeping them around or not--well, Geno and Letang. I have feeling the last thing they want to do to endear themselves to a new fanbase is to f*** around with the big guys. At the same time, it wouldn't surprise me that a new ownership group has no ties to these dudes and wants to get on with the inevitable and ugly rebuild.

Still seems weird to me that someone paid close to a billion dollars for a team that's been on the steady decline for years and has a core that's well into their twilight and will be retiring sooner than later--ushering in a huge drop in revenue from merch and tickets. But hey, I'm no finance wizard.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Stats are for nerds and computers.

 

[Pancakes]

I don't think we're getting anything that helps in the immediate future when we part out the machine, is I guess what I'm trying to say. You're probably not gonna get a younger and/or better version of Jake, or Rust, or Kap, or Zucker, or Dumo, for any of those guys. At this stage you probably have to just load up on picks or prospects who have already been drafted but are guys we'd like to build around and we like their potential ceiling.

The core isn't getting better or more durable as they age. If they stick around, it's literally only for the Queen's wave as they do a farewell tour. Nostalgia, legacies, whatever buzzword you wanna use. I'm not sure whether the new ownership will be keen on keeping them around or not--well, Geno and Letang. I have feeling the last thing they want to do to endear themselves to a new fanbase is to f*** around with the big guys. At the same time, it wouldn't surprise me that a new ownership group has no ties to these dudes and wants to get on with the inevitable and ugly rebuild.

Still seems weird to me that someone paid close to a billion dollars for a team that's been on the steady decline for years and has a core that's well into their twilight and will be retiring sooner than later--ushering in a huge drop in revenue from merch and tickets. But hey, I'm no finance wizard.

It's true, you probably don't get immediate help for the Rusts or even Letangs of the world that you move out. But maybe you get help via those picks/prospects within 3 or so years, and if you don't completely tear things up you still have a (albeit old) Crosby/Malkin to help usher in the next era of Pens hockey then. And maybe in the meantime you can keep a team that could make the playoffs or at least threaten to. Versus going full Buffalo and who knows if we ever pull out of that tailspin.

As to your last point about new ownership, they know Uncle Gary is gonna scratch our back one more time with Bedard or whoever.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

It's true, you probably don't get immediate help for the Rusts or even Letangs of the world that you move out. But maybe you get help via those picks/prospects within 3 or so years, and if you don't completely tear things up you still have a (albeit old) Crosby/Malkin to help usher in the next era of Pens hockey then. And maybe in the meantime you can keep a team that could make the playoffs or at least threaten to. Versus going full Buffalo and who knows if we ever pull out of that tailspin.

As to your last point about new ownership, they know Uncle Gary is gonna scratch our back one more time with Bedard or whoever.

Just wanted to highlight this.

I'm sure, at some point, Buffalo fans figured they were doing some little five year "whoopsie we're a miserable pile of garbage but hey look at these lotto picks!" jaunt.

How's that goin? Far from guaranteed. That team has been utterly irrelevant since like Hasek. And honestly there are other examples not too far off.

Obviously you gotta move on at some point. The world doesn't stand still. But I'm in no hurry.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

It's true, you probably don't get immediate help for the Rusts or even Letangs of the world that you move out. But maybe you get help via those picks/prospects within 3 or so years, and if you don't completely tear things up you still have a (albeit old) Crosby/Malkin to help usher in the next era of Pens hockey then. And maybe in the meantime you can keep a team that could make the playoffs or at least threaten to. Versus going full Buffalo and who knows if we ever pull out of that tailspin.

As to your last point about new ownership, they know Uncle Gary is gonna scratch our back one more time with Bedard or whoever.

I'd hope this organization isn't as intentionally dense as the Buffalos or the Arizonas of the world, but y'know.

Making the playoffs or threatening to is about the last thing a team on the rebuild wants to do. If you're gonna suck, and we suck now and will moving forward, suck badly enough to get good picks. Like you said; draft's already a crapshoot. May as well take the best odds with top-5 or top-10 picks for a while as opposed to the like 22-25ish picks for being a borderline playoff team. That's how you get the Poulins and the Bennetts and the Tangradis. Okay, maybe a little too early to pile on Poulin, I just don't think he's worth a damn. None of 'em are.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Just to make it clear... I have no use for like 90% of the supporting cast on this team, think they aren't a well-thought-out roster that was mostly constructed by a man with the attention span of a gnat and wouldn't be sad to see most of them gone like... yesterday.

 

[Jobeycool]

The chances of landing another Lemieux and Jagr and Crosby and Malkin are extremely extremely low. So the Pens might not ever get these types of players again for 20 years or so. However the game has changed so much where you must have very good defenseman if you are going any where in the playoffs..Always been the case about good goal tending..

 

[The Old Master]

another big key to as what we will do is whether or not the big three will accept playing deferent rolls as they get older.