Proposal: Fire DJ Smith

[DaveMatthew]

That’s what xGA , xGF, GSAX, and others stats all due now, try to predict, and yes nothing is guaranteed, I think we all know that.

Those stats don't try to predict the future. They try to analyze the past.

xGF is how many goals you should have scored in the games that already happened. Not how many goals you should score in future games.

People look at those metrics and then use them to try and predict the future.

 

[swiftwin]

They are not.

They can be used as reasoning that helps you formulate a prediction, but they are not, in and of themselves, predictors of future results.

Someone else could back up their prediction with different reasoning (basic stats like W/L, GF/GA), and it wouldn't be any less valid.

Lmfao. Nobody claims they are some sort of oracle that predicts with 100% accuracy. Now you're just being petty.

Those stats don't try to predict the future. They try to analyze the past.

xGF is how many goals you should have scored in the games that already happened.
Not how many goals you will score in future games.

There's a very strong correlation between those two things. C'mon man...

 

[Golden_Jet]

We were 9-17-1 at this point last season. We're 11-14-2 this season. Also, we were 25th in xGF% last year, and are 10th in xGF% so far this year, which means not only are we better than we were at this point last year, it's likely the gap between this year and last year is only going to get better as the season progresses.

HSF knew that I’m sure.
tuba99 is worse, and posting false stats today, even though called out, won’t address it or correct them.

Those stats don't try to predict the future. They try to analyze the past.

xGF is how many goals you should have scored in the games that already happened. Not how many goals you should score in future games.

People look at those metrics and then use them to try and predict the future.

That’s fair, maybe wasn’t worded correctly.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Lmfao. Nobody claims they are some sort of oracle that predicts with 100% accuracy. Now you're just being petty.

Well, no, but you're essentially saying the current W-L record is irrelevant and this team (and coach) should not be judged by it at game 27 because they'll improve over the remaining 55 games of the season (and you're basing that prediction on their underlying metrics through the first 27 games).

Which is fine. But, it's just as fair for someone else to judge this team (and coach) at game 27 by their current W-L record.

In general, though, I think people focus way too much on advanced analytics in hockey. Analytics are much more tailored to baseball, where you have hundreds of identical episodic events every single game (with a defined start and stop + limited variables), and tens of thousands over the course of the season.

In hockey, you can have a 5 game stretch where you get 50 scoring "chances" for and give up 45, and people will extrapolate these huge conclusions because "53% CF%!!!!". Even better if they put it into a nice colourful graphic.

I mean, Ottawa is top 10 in high quality chances for, Vancouver is bottom 10. Ottawa has generated 59 and Vancover 50. A difference of 9 chances over 27 games, and one team is an underlying numbers darling that's way better than their W-L record and the other is not.

 

[Cosmix]

That's not the reason I fuss over the underlying metrics. My reasoning is this:

1. The only thing that matters is our standings at the end of the season.
2. Underlying metrics is a better predictor of future standings than current standings, especially this early in the season.

Do you have access to any stats that prove your 2nd point?

 

[Tuna99]

Trouble with charts eh
Oh let me guess your counting the bonus points in the loss column, that’s not How NHL does it unfortunately.’

Even if you do count it the wrong way, it would be 4 not 2.

21 months total
10 months months P% >= 500

If you go 5-5-2 - you won 5 games and lost 7.

I didn’t say winning percentage or points percentage, I said winning record. They are called loser points for a reason

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

DJ and Smith are 2 people now.

DJ is working on it

 

[Golden_Jet]

If you go 5-5-2 - you won 5 games and lost 7.

I didn’t say winning percentage or points percentage, I said winning record. They are called loser points for a reason

Yep, and you even got that wrong , you said 2 months, I even said in the post, you quoted it was wrong lol. Even doing the math your way, it’s not 2, it’s 4 months,
Plus another 3 months that are .500 exactly , like 7-7-0.
So plus or minus 100% , your in the ballpark.

Trouble readings charts, or doing it on purpose again, to make your point look better.

 

[GCK]

I would love to hear DJ Smith talk about getting the shots against count down to under 30. That should be the goal. We need to help our goalies, not hope they bail us out every game.

Only 9 teams give up less than 30 shots a game. We do need to shave off a shot or 2 a game. If we could shave 1.4 shots per game we’d be 15th in that category.

 

[GCK]

Went from 48 to 95 points. Would be nice to have a coach with those kinda results

Is our current record even better than last year?

Record is 6 points better this season. Goal differential through 28 games is -3 compared to -23 after 28 games last year. Excluding EN goals our GA through 28 games is down 15 goals.

 

[Xspyrit]

If you go 5-5-2 - you won 5 games and lost 7.

I didn’t say winning percentage or points percentage, I said winning record. They are called loser points for a reason

You're technically right but 3 on 3 hockey and shootouts are hardly "regular hockey"

In playoffs, 5 on 5 keeps going until someone wins. In the regular season, for reasons such as "people need to go home at some point", games that should be ties are decided in a sudden death mode, which creates more parity and a better show.

The real record to evaluate a hockey team is more regular time wins and losses, the rest are disguised ties.

 

[Tuna99]

Yep, and you even got that wrong , you said 2 months, I even said in the post, you quoted it was wrong lol. Even doing the math your way, it’s not 2, it’s 4 months,
Plus another 3 months that are .500 exactly , like 7-7-0.
So plus or minus 100% , your in the ballpark.

Trouble readings charts, or doing it on purpose again, to make your point look better.

your doing important work here regulating how people read charts on the internet and in backhanded insulting them.

 

[Golden_Jet]

your doing important work here regulating how people read charts on the internet and in backhanded insulting them.

You said 2 months, it’s 4 months , with an additional 3 months at .500 exactly. It was right in black and white on the chart.

You state numbers wrong all the time, and seems on purpose, because of the frequency.
Not my problem, if you don’t like getting called out for it, or even acknowledge you got it wrong , again.

 

[Tuna99]

You said 2 months, it’s 4 months , with an additional 3 months at .500 exactly. It was right in black and white on the chart.

You state numbers wrong all the time, and seems on purpose, because of the frequency.
Not my problem, if you don’t like getting called out for it, or even acknowledge you got it wrong , again.

This is intense. You’re especially excited about the .500 record.

You did it, you called somebody out on the internet. This is big, it’s important, it’s very important to you. I want to recognize you and say Thank you for showing me my mistake. Rest easy now

 

[Golden_Jet]

This is intense. You’re especially excited about the .500 record.

You did it, you called somebody out on the internet. This is big, it’s important, it’s very important to you. I want to recognize you and say Thank you for showing me my mistake. Rest easy now

Congrats , you do this a lot, to make your point seem better,
unfortunately you don’t like getting called out for it.

 

[swiftwin]

How long until a "Sorry DJ" chant?

 

[Ouroboros]

Not long until CTC will be echoing with the chants of 'Sorry DJ'.

 

[HSF]

he still has to go

another failed season

Will be interesting how this team responds atter the Det game. Some tougher games coming up

 

[umma gumma]

How long until a "Sorry DJ" chant?

After 11 straight wins? Twice?

 

[swiftwin]

After 11 straight wins? Twice?

3 down, 8 to go I suppose

 

[L'Aveuglette]

How long until a "Sorry DJ" chant?

Unless they make the playoffs or get extremely close to it, there won't be any.

 

[DaveMatthew]

After 11 straight wins? Twice?

I'd say 10 straight is the floor for a chant.

 

[umma gumma]

I'd say 10 straight is the floor for a chant.

Lets make it 11, for Alfie.

3 down, 8 to go I suppose

Don't you mean 3 down, 19 to go?

 

[boxbox]

what a joke...we would be 25-0 if this team was actually coached by a proven NHL coach that never coached beyond the 2nd round but will lead us to the promised land because hes a 'winner"/that coached at least 3 different franchises and got fired from all 3; hes too good for his own good/ that has been in the league for at least 15-20 years because the game has not changed at all and last but not least a coach that is an active participant on this forum because if the Jack Adam were to be handed out here they would need 10 of them because there are so many of us here who clearly know more then you, yes you "NHL" coach, about the game and how it should be played

 

[Ice-Tray]

what a joke...we would be 25-0 if this team was actually coached by a proven NHL coach that never coached beyond the 2nd round but will lead us to the promised land because hes a 'winner"/that coached at least 3 different franchises and got fired from all 3; hes too good for his own good/ that has been in the league for at least 15-20 years because the game has not changed at all and last but not least a coach that is an active participant on this forum because if the Jack Adam were to be handed out here they would need 10 of them because there are so many of us here who clearly know more then you, yes you "NHL" coach, about the game and how it should be played

I feel you man