Proposal: Fire DJ Smith

[Sens of Anarchy]

Senators by month Since DJ has been here

19-20

20-21

21-22

22-23

 

[swiftwin]

Senators by month Since DJ has been here

19-20
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20-21
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21-22
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22-23
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So, what you're saying is this is the 2nd best month we've ever had under DJ?

 

[Tuna99]

Senators by month Since DJ has been here

19-20
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20-21
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21-22
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22-23
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Unbelievably he’s had 2 months with a winning record since he’s been here.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

So, what you're saying is this is the 2nd best month we've ever had under DJ?

not really saying anything.. just an fyi.. I thought it could be interesting, I thought we'd see a jump in the record post Dec. but it held pretty steady. April last year being an exceptional month.

 

[swiftwin]

I thought this was interesting....
DJ and Dorion before the season. DJ said we'd have a successful season if our special teams could combine to 105%. Friedman and Marek are like "wow, that's ambitious". We currently have a combined 104.5% special teams (9th best in the NHL).

 

[Golden_Jet]

I thought this was interesting....
DJ and Dorion before the season. DJ said we'd have a successful season if our special teams could combine to 105%. Friedman and Marek are like "wow, that's ambitious". We currently have a combined 104.5% special teams.

Same interview, PD answer was 916/917 goaltending.

Nice seeing DJ as one of the celebrity coaches at the PWHA all-star game yesterday.

 

[swiftwin]

Same interview, PD answer was 916/917 goaltending.

Nice seeing DJ as one of the celebrity coaches at the PWHA all-star game yesterday.

Yup. Really goes to show how goaltending makes or breaks a coach. Good to see DJ focusing on the things he can control though.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Yup. Really goes to show how goaltending makes or breaks a coach. Good to see DJ focusing on the things he can control though.

If DJ and Dorion thought we could get a combined .916 SV% over the course of the season, they were out to lunch. Only 11 goalies (who played 30 or more games) had a SV% at or above 916% last season. #11 was Andrei Vasilevskyi.

We have Anton Forsberg and Cam Talbot. And considering the high-event style our forwards play, and the makeup of our defense, .916% was and is completely unrealistic.

We should be thrilled with what we've gotten so far - .909 - which is essentially league average.

I would love to hear DJ Smith talk about getting the shots against count down to under 30. That should be the goal. We need to help our goalies, not hope they bail us out every game.

 

[swiftwin]

If DJ and Dorion thought we could get a combined .916 SV% over the course of the season, they were out to lunch. Only 11 goalies (who played 30 or more games) had a SV% at or above 916% last season. #11 was Andrei Vasilevskyi.

We have Anton Forsberg and Cam Talbot. And considering the high-event style our forwards play, and the makeup of our defense, .916% was and is completely unrealistic.

We should be thrilled with what we've gotten so far - .909 - which is essentially league average.

I would love to hear DJ Smith talk about getting the shots against count down to under 30. That should be the goal. We need to help our goalies, not hope they bail us out every game.

Anton Forsberg was #9 with a 917% last season.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Anton Forsberg was #9 with a 917% last season.

Yes, he played the lights out over 46 games. An absolute career year.

Expecting that same performance from 2 goalies over an entire 82 games season was crazy talk.

Combined, any team that gets .910 over a season should be happy. Usually, that puts them top 10 in the league. If a team that gives up as many shots and chances as we do gets that, they should be absolutely thrilled.

Which NHL Team Has The Best Save Percentage In 2021-22 | StatMuse

The New York Rangers had the best save percentage by a team in 2021-22, at .919.

www.statmuse.com

.915/916 was not a realistic expectation.

 

[Micklebot]

If DJ and Dorion thought we could get a combined .916 SV% over the course of the season, they were out to lunch.

We're currently at a combined .910 and that's with everyone complaining about how many soft goals we give up.

6 more saves instead of goals and we're a combined .916.


Btw, the NYR number includes EN, so not goaltending. NYR were .921 last year.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Yes, he played the lights out over 46 games. An absolute career year.

Expecting that same performance from 2 goalies over an entire 82 games season was crazy talk.

Combined, any team that gets .910 over a season should be happy. Usually, that puts them top 10 in the league. If a team that gives up as many shots and chances as we do gets that, they should be absolutely thrilled.

Which NHL Team Has The Best Save Percentage In 2021-22 | StatMuse

The New York Rangers had the best save percentage by a team in 2021-22, at .919.

www.statmuse.com

.915/916 was not a realistic expectation.

We’ll the question I think, which stat do you think, the Sens need for a successful season. Can only pick one stat.

Hosts afterward said they didn’t think they would get an answer, and were happy they got one.

We're currently at a combined .910 and that's with everyone complaining about how many soft goals we give up.

6 more saves instead of goals and we're a combined .916.

Are EN goals included in team stats.

 

[swiftwin]

Yes, he played the lights out over 46 games. An absolute career year.

Expecting that same performance from 2 goalies over an entire 82 games season was crazy talk.

Combined, any team that gets .910 over a season should be happy. If a team that gives up as many shots and chances as we do gets that, they should be absolutely thrilled.

Yup, and that's why Dorion still went out and got Talbot. Good foresight by him. It would have been easy to just stick with Forsberg after such a great year.

Either way, neither Talbot nor Forsberg have .910 right now. It might not sound like a huge difference, but a 1-goal game here and a 1-goal game there, and all of a sudden, we're 13-12-2 instead of 11-14-2, over .500. Our loses have been by razor thin margins.

Not saying it's all on goaltending, but a small part of the blame has to go there. A part of the blame has to go on the D not managing the puck well. A small part on certain forwards not playing up to their potential. A small part on injuries. All these small things add up when you consider how razor thin our loses have been.

All I'm saying is I don't see any major systemic problems with the team, especially with the great underlying numbers at even strength, and the great special teams numbers.

6 more saves instead of goals and we're a combined .916.

Considering almost every loss has been by 1 goal, 6 more saves could easily mean 3 more wins instead of loses, which would put us 3 points out of a playoff spot with 2 games in hand.

 

[DaveMatthew]

We're currently at a combined .910 and that's with everyone complaining about how many soft goals we give up.

6 more saves instead of goals and we're a combined .916.

6 fewer game-savers and we're at .903%.

It's been 27 games.

If we end the season with a combined .910%, that's excellent. Expecting .915+, considering the style we play and the makeup of our D, was insanity.

I don't know if that was the actual internal expectation of if DJ/Dorion just threw out a number in an interview. Hopefully the latter.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Not saying it's all on goaltending, but a small part of the blame has to go there. A part of the blame has to go on the D not managing the puck well. A small part on certain forwards not playing up to their potential. A small part on injuries. All these small things add up when you consider how razor thin our loses have been.

All I'm saying is I don't see any major systemic problems with the team, especially with the great underlying numbers at even strength, and the great special teams numbers.

There is no 1 glaring issue that can be blamed for this team's losses. But that's never the case.

But one of the major "systemic" issues I see is that our forwards, more often than not, fail to support our defense. As soon as we recover the puck, they bail the zone. What Batherson did in OT against the Stars demonstrated it in a nutshell. I'd like them to stay back longer and give the D easier outlet options.

The other one that can be called out is how we collapse in front of the net, give teams free reign on the outside, and cause massive confusion.

I don't think DJ is as bad a coach as it seems in the midst of a GDT when we're down 2-0 in the first. But to suggest there's no system problems is as crazy as suggesting that everything is terrible.

 

[swiftwin]

There is no 1 glaring issue that can be blamed for this team's losses. But that's never the case.

But one of the major "systemic" issues I see is that our forwards, more often than not, fail to support our defense. As soon as we recover the puck, they bail the zone. What Batherson did in OT against the Stars demonstrated it in a nutshell. I'd like them to stay back longer and give the D easier outlet options.

The other one that can be called out is how we collapse in front of the net, give teams free reign on the outside, and cause massive confusion.

I don't think DJ is as bad a coach as it seems in the midst of a GDT when we're down 2-0 in the first. But to suggest there's no system problems is as crazy as suggesting that everything is terrible.

I can get behind this.

That being said, I don't think what Batherson did in OT is really indicative of anything. 3v3 OT is a whole different beast. But yes, as a whole, I agree, if I had to pick one thing that could use improvement from a systems perspective, it's how we break out of our zone.

It seems to me that the goal is to get the puck from our zone to behind the opposing net as fast as possible so we can smother them deep in their zone with our strong forecheck to gain and keep possession in their zone. That usually means a chip play by a forward at the red line, which means atleast one of the forwards need leave the zone early for that chip play. The good thing about this, is it completely bypasses the opposing team's neutral zone (if they regain possession, they need to wait until the zone clears, which means no odd-man rushes against) . The bad thing is an elevated risk of turnovers at our blue line. I'm not sure if there are any stats to support this, but I have the impression that we don't have many odd-man rushes against us.

How we collapse in our D-zone however, is something literally every NHL team does from time to time. I don't think we do it any worse than most teams. I'd even say we are better at pressuring the points than we have since the pre-Boucher days. Boucher's system was even worse at collapsing. In 2016-17, Karlsson had the 2nd most blocked shots in the league. That's f***ing absurd. That's literally the reason he had a fractured ankle those playoffs.

 

[HSF]

Yup, and that's why Dorion still went out and got Talbot. Good foresight by him. It would have been easy to just stick with Forsberg after such a great year.

Either way, neither Talbot nor Forsberg have .910 right now. It might not sound like a huge difference, but a 1-goal game here and a 1-goal game there, and all of a sudden, we're 13-12-2 instead of 11-14-2, over .500. Our loses have been by razor thin margins.

Not saying it's all on goaltending, but a small part of the blame has to go there. A part of the blame has to go on the D not managing the puck well. A small part on certain forwards not playing up to their potential. A small part on injuries. All these small things add up when you consider how razor thin our loses have been.

All I'm saying is I don't see any major systemic problems with the team, especially with the great underlying numbers at even strength, and the great special teams numbers.


Considering almost every loss has been by 1 goal, 6 more saves could easily mean 3 more wins instead of loses, which would put us 3 points out of a playoff spot with 2 games in hand.

uhhh I would not have been easy to stick with Forsberg for a year. He was very unproven

The obvious move was to improve the goaltending once Murray was gone. The other obvious move is to improve the defense

Coaching should be the first change this team makes if the GM is safe. Incredibly hard to evaluate certain aspects of this team without a better coach in place

Murray looks like a vezina candidate behind a broken down defense

 

[swiftwin]

uhhh I would not have been easy to stick with Forsberg for a year. He was very unproven

The obvious move was to improve the goaltending once Murray was gone. The other obvious move is to improve the defense

Coaching should be the first change this team makes if the GM is safe. Incredibly hard to evaluate certain aspects of this team without a better coach in place

Murray looks like a vezina candidate behind a broken down defense

I'm not opposed to coaching change at the end of the season once the dust settles, depending on how the season goes. I'm just against a panic firing at this point in the season, especially if it's just to make Capuano the interim coach. Unless it was to bring in Trotz.

 

[Micklebot]

Are EN goals included in team stats.

EN are included in team stats but are not goalie sv% which is what Dorion referenced. Still a fairly lofty expectation to hit .916-.918, but the question of "this season will be a success if:" could be interpreted as what guarates a success rather that what is a requirement of success.

 

[Micklebot]

6 fewer game-savers and we're at .903%.

It's been 27 games.

If we end the season with a combined .910%, that's excellent. Expecting .915+, considering the style we play and the makeup of our D, was insanity.

I don't know if that was the actual internal expectation of if DJ/Dorion just threw out a number in an interview. Hopefully the latter.

You're conflating teams sv% with goalies combined sv%, Our goalies have allowed 80 goals on 885 sit for .910sv%, had they allowed only 74g on 885 shots they'd have a .916sv%. One includes EN goals, but Dorion specified "goaltending sv%", which I think it's fair to assume omits EN.

 

[DaveMatthew]

You're conflating teams sv% with goalies combined sv%, Our goalies have allowed 80 goals on 885 sit for .910sv%, had they allowed only 74g on 885 shots they'd have a .916sv%. One includes EN goals, but Dorion specified "goaltending sv%", which I think it's fair to assume omits EN.

I'm not.

You're right, in your example, that if they had allowed no bad goals (assuming 6 is the correct number of "bad" goals allowed this year), the SV% would be .916%.

My example was that if they had made fewer extraordinary saves (let's say 6, to keep that number the same), that number could also easily be 86 goals allowed on 885 shots, which would make the SV% .903%.

If we're talking hypotheticals, you can't remove the bad goals but keep the exceptional saves. Yes there have been bad goals, but there have also been great saves, so it balances it out and that .910 is a pretty accurate representation of the goaltending we've gotten.

And at the end of the day, a combined .910 SV% is solid. Not amazing, but solid.

Which is my point.

If Dorion legitimately thinks we should/could maintain a combined .915%+ SV% over the course of an entire 82 game season, based on who we have in net and how we play, I think he's out to lunch.

Last year, the Lightning had a combined SV% of .913%. With an amazing forward group, defense, and the best goalie in the league.

Now, if we can maintain a .910 SV% and get SA/game down to ~30-31.5, then we're talking...

 

[Sens Vader]

Senators by month Since DJ has been here

19-20
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20-21
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21-22
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22-23
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4/20 months above .500

pacing 1 good month of hockey a year, maybe now is our month

I think the strategy is be so absolutely horrible that when you get to playing .500 hockey everyone is happy and the pressure is off. Murder expectations so far down that being just meh is a win.

 

[Alex1234]

I like to judge a successful season by looking at the standings

Crazy take I know

 

[HSF]

I like to judge a successful season by looking at the standings

Crazy take I know

ya you really don't need to look much

Senators by month Since DJ has been here

19-20
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20-21
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21-22
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22-23
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Definitly not surprising

We have lived through this

 

[swiftwin]

I like to judge a successful season by looking at the standings

Crazy take I know

Here's an even crazier take. I like to judge a successful season by looking at the standings at the end of the season.