Proposal: Fire DJ Smith

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I don't know, it seems like the early season analytics make us look better than we are, because all of the analysts that are actually watching the games (McLennan, Johnson, Methot, Poulin, O'Neill) continue to harp on our bad team defensive play.

O'Neill said it bluntly yesterday on Overdrive. Essentially, "The Senators can score goals, and will have no problem scoring goals. But they're going nowhere until they figure out how to defend."

I've been thinking about it all the way through. It is hard to turn the switch on all of a sudden.

 

[JD1]

DJ constantly using a 13th forward as his extra attacker, constantly allowing late period goals, and a lackluster powerplay are not valid criticisms?

Is Brassard a 13th forward or a 7th top 6 forward?

 

[GCK]

Why Sullivan?

Best coach in the league IMO.

we lose a few more games and those analytics will drop

the sample size is small. What we do know though is that the team is sinking hard in the standings

If the sample size is small for the analytics then it is also small for the standings.

 

[JD1]

It's early, but with every loss, the rest of the season gets tougher. We now need to play .585-.600% hockey to have "meaningful games" in March. When was the last time we did that for a 71 game span?

At some point, wins and losses matter. Even if they're 1 goal losses.

Vancouver lost 17 of their first 27 last year. 10 of those losses were by 1 goal or included an empty netter. But there are no points for "almost got it to overtime". Travis Green was fired, and he should've been. They probably should have done it sooner.

We'll see how the next 9 go. But anything worse than 6-3 will be disaster for both Dorion and Smith and their hopes of being here under new ownership.

This is the problem with statistics.... you're making

 

[DaveMatthew]

If the sample size is small for the analytics then it is also small for the standings.

The problem is that there's a finite number of games. It doesn't matter if you play well the last 60 games when you eliminate yourself from the playoffs in the first 20. And as we've seen for the last 3 seasons, a nice run at the end of a season doesn't carry over to the next.

The East will be a bloodbath this year. We're already in a pretty big hole. There's no reason to believe that NJ, Detroit, Buffalo to slow down much, and there are plenty of already-good teams.

Let's say Detroit goes 37-33 the rest of the year. Just to tie them, we have to go 41-30.

We've given ourselves zero breathing room. You get one bad streak per year. We've used our up in early November.

 

[Tuna99]

Our xGA/60 at 5v5 is 19th in the league, we arent as bad defensively as some seem to think. Every team has lapsed, we've had some that were costly and as a result people are hyper focused on them, but had Forsberg made a big save or the opposition shot a bit wide, suddenly it wouldn't be talked about because some loses would turn into wins.

I'm not saying we are a great defensive team, I'm saying we aren't built that way and it's fine. We're more POOPmentom Oilers than CaroPOOPER hurricanes.

Fixed for accuracy

 

[bert]

I've been thinking about it all the way through. It is hard to turn the switch on all of a sudden.

You're right Chabot has definitely picked up some really bad habits playing on a losing team where there was no accountability. Thats on the coaching staff but its also a hard place to be in when you have no other options. I think they have to start using the only thing they have and thats icetime. DJ's biggest hurdle is to get the best out of his number 1 D man. Until that changes I dont think this team wins more than it loses.

 

[DaveMatthew]

You're right Chabot has definitely picked up some really bad habits playing on a losing team where there was no accountability. Thats on the coaching staff but its also a hard place to be in when you have no other options. I think they have to start using the only thing they have and thats icetime. DJ's biggest hurdle is to get the best out of his number 1 D man. Until that changes I dont think this team wins more than it loses.

It also requires a lot of coaching. Player development. Helping him understand where he should be in different situations.

The vibe I get from the Smith and the organization in regards to Chabot is, "he's a star he's great not a problem look at his minutes he replaced Karlsson we're good."

A lot of it is on the player, too. That Chabot made "the list" for Dorion after last season but then came into the year playing like this will not endear him to the fanbase, especially now that Sanderson is here to compare against.

It's very much like how the criticism of Redden went WAY up when Chara established himself.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

You're right Chabot has definitely picked up some really bad habits playing on a losing team where there was no accountability. Thats on the coaching staff but its also a hard place to be in when you have no other options. I think they have to start using the only thing they have and thats icetime. DJ's biggest hurdle is to get the best out of his number 1 D man. Until that changes I dont think this team wins more than it loses.

And therein lies another dilemma in that he doesn't have great personnel options to do a lot different with the ice time. I'm willing to bet that Brannstrom and Sanderson's effectiveness takes a hit if they try elevating them in to Chabot's minutes, but I'd also be okay with trying it out.

I thought Chabot looked his best this year when Zub was still playing, near the injury when Zub was also coming around, so I'm hoping that can bring Chabot back around. He's also had moments where he looks fine.

 

[Alex1234]

Can you elaborate on what makes the defensive structure "ass"?

I feel like alot of people keep repeating this but don't actually know how or why. Just that we're losing, and repeating "defensive structure" makes themselves feel smart.

A lot of people don't know but you know hey?

 

[Mingus Dew]

Marc Methot does a pretty good job breaking it down, game in game out on Twitter and TSN. Poor support by forwards in transition, defensemen collapsing down low without communicating and both ending up on the same guy or winding up behind the net, being "easy to play against" down low, general dislike of everything Zaitsev does, etc.

It has been stated numerous times in this thread already. It’s a dubious defensive system at best that is being made worse by poor execution.

The ending up behind the net thing is so obvious to everyone actually watching the games.

 

[lunadio]

Ottawa needs to win 45 to 47 games versus 25 to 23 loses the rest of year they would have to play above 65% winning percentage the only team to do that since 2017 was the Tampa Bay lightning 65.6 % winning clip simple math . analytics useless in this situation ottawa is even on same planet as Tampa has been since 2017 oh and Dj defending zaitzev and Pierre defending dj just goes to show what state this team is in the season is done unless there's a miracle

 

[DJB]

Best coach in the league IMO.

Not according to Pens fans. They hate him because absolutely no defensive structure and the D are constantly told to step up and pinch and they gave up a crap ton of odd man rushes.

THis is according to Pens fans.

 

[swiftwin]

A lot of people don't know but you know hey?

I'm just saying the stats suggest otherwise.

So until someone comes up with some sort of explanation or stats that shows we're a mess in the defensive zone, I have a hard time believing it.

 

[Ouroboros]

DJ is elite.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Interesting reading that we’re in a massive hole already because we’re 4-7 so far to start the year.

It that’s enough to put us out of the playoffs, we were never going to make the playoffs. Sucks not to be at .500, but this isn’t exactly an unreasonable record for this team to have right now.

We’re a much better team than we were to start last season, but we need a couple players to get up to their typical level of play.

Batherson, Stu, Cat, and Chabot have not been playing as good as they normally can, let alone taking a step, while Forsberg has been adequate, and both Holden and Zaitsev are both playing like 7th D men. We are not firing on all cylinders that’s for sure.

The rookies make rookie mistakes but have looked great in their roles for the most part (Kastelic, Pinto, Sanderson), but only Brady, G, and Zub have really stepped up so far this season.

If the majority of the East keeps playing like they have been, I don’t think there’s a chance in hell this young team makes the playoffs. It’s just not a reasonable expectation if we are to consider that a 4-7 start, with all losses being close games, has put in some sort of massive hole.

I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect us to have a winning record, let alone looking for 90+ points. That would have to be a massive step up from last season, and would basically need all injury and development stars to align.

It’s been frustrating to lose all of these one goal games while looking pretty good doing it, but I’ll take that over having little chance most nights, and being taken lightly by the league over night after night.

 

[Sensinitis]

After listening to Pierre’s presser DJ is definitely on thinnn iceeee and you love to see it. Looks like there will be a decision made within the next 10 games or so

 

[PatrickEaves]

Not according to Pens fans. They hate him because absolutely no defensive structure and the D are constantly told to step up and pinch and they gave up a crap ton of odd man rushes.

THis is according to Pens fans.

Pens fans are some of the most spoiled fans in the league. They can't evaluate good play because they think generational talent grows on trees.

 

[SweSensFan]

Ottawa needs to win 45 to 47 games versus 25 to 23 loses the rest of year they would have to play above 65% winning percentage the only team to do that since 2017 was the Tampa Bay lightning 65.6 % winning clip simple math . analytics useless in this situation ottawa is even on same planet as Tampa has been since 2017 oh and Dj defending zaitzev and Pierre defending dj just goes to show what state this team is in the season is done unless there's a miracle

We have 8 points now, 44 more wins would be 96 points which should likely be enough. However if we get say 8 OT losses we might be ok with around 40 wins in 71 games for a total of 44-30-8 and 96 points which is a though ask but should not be anywhere near impossible..

 

[GCK]

We basically need 12.5 points per 10 game segment from here on out. 6-3-1. Tough ask but a couple of 8-2 segments makes it much simpler. If we can get to 22 points through 22 games then I think we have a decent chance. 14 points through the next 11 games is mandatory.

 

[lunadio]

Spin it anyway you want we need over 65% winning percentage over the entire year only one very very good team much much better then senators has done it since 2017 Tampa they one 2 Stanley's and almost 3 its not very realistic to expect it just except it and give them more time and new management will help its a shame they didn't or couldn't beef up the defense goalies and forward group are good otherwise they are moving in right direction .

 

[RickyLafleur]

Pens fans are some of the most spoiled fans in the league. They can't evaluate good play because they think generational talent grows on trees

Agreed and totally unrelated but what's with the new DP?

 

[Gil Gunderson]

What puts us in a difficult spot is that we’re winning enough to be in the conversation, but there have been multiple games that should have gone to OT at the very least but were given away giftwrapped.

 

[Micklebot]

Pens fans are some of the most spoiled fans in the league. They can't evaluate good play because they think generational talent grows on trees.

Pens are two points up on us and we have a game in hand, they are pretty much playing at a similar clip as us. Their generational talent means they end up struggling to fill depth roles and stay cap compliant.

I think like us, they are playing better than their record, but they also have issues.

 

[NyQuil]

The issue I have with the analytics argument is that we may well be playing well enough to win hockey games but that may not necessarily continue either.

Maybe this is our stretch of good play, but due to mental errors late in periods and games, bad luck, whatever, we're not getting the points.

Then we actually do slump and all of those missed opportunities are glaring.