Proposal: Fire DJ Smith

[swiftwin]

Exactly. At the WJC he was so powerful, fluid, and intentional with his skating. With the puck in the offensive zone, he was able to take a step, pause, and look off defenders at will because they had to respect his skating ability. He was breaking ankles and opening up lanes.

NHL calibre defenders don't respect his ability to step up in the offensive zone anymore because he rarely does it. He plays too many heavy minutes a season to be making explosive dashes with the puck. That's where proper coaching and deployment can support him and put him in a position to be the player we drafted him to be.

It makes me shake my head that DJ publicly stated that the more Chabot plays, the better he plays. There has never been any truth to that comment; the data has always suggested that the inverse is true. Combined with the Zaitsev is elite comment, and with him sitting Zub for the first month a couple of years back while the team barely won a game, it's clear that DJ's instincts are not the right instincts for this team.

I think this is legitimately the first valid criticism against DJ I've seen yet this season (managing Chabot's minutes, not the Zub/Zaitsev thing).

I'd like to see Chabot's minutes go down a bit more. I'm starting to think he's putting too much pressure on himself. He's so used to being "the guy", and now with the added expectations of this season, it's getting to him mentally.

I think bringing down his minutes, and letting Sanderson take on a bigger role might make Chabot feel more supported and not feel like he has to do everything and be perfect, so he can just relax and play his game. At the same time though, there's still a bit of a balancing act where we can't let Sanderson bite off more than he can chew. But I still think there's room give some of Chabot's minutes to Sanderson.

 

[LuckyPierre]

The thing is, he was bad in pre-season and he's continued to be bad in the regular season. And he hasn't racked up all that many minutes yet. We're only 11 games in.

It'd make sense if he got worse over the course of the year. But he's been bad from the start this season.

I think it's more likely that the coaching is happy with the style Chabot now plays with, and has discouraged him from playing how he did in 18/19 and junior. And if they're not happy with his play, there don't seem to be any consequences.

My thought is that it's a programming thing. He has had to carry 27+ hard minutes a night at the NHL level for so many years now that he's pacing his play and conserving his energy by default.

He needs a fresh start - a coach to come in, play him a reel of his WJC highlights and ask him, "what do I have to do to support you, to get you playing like this again?"

 

[DaveMatthew]

I think this is legitimately the first valid criticism against DJ I've seen yet this season (managing Chabot's minutes, not the Zub/Zaitsev thing).

I'd like to see Chabot's minutes go down a bit more. I'm starting to think he's putting too much pressure on himself. He's so used to being "the guy", and now with the added expectations of this season, it's getting to him mentally.

I think bringing down his minutes, and letting Sanderson take on a bigger role might make Chabot feel more supported and not feel like he has to do everything and be perfect, so he can just relax and play his game. At the same time though, there's still a bit of a balancing act where we can't let Sanderson bite off more than he can chew. But I still think there's room give some of Chabot's minutes to Sanderson.

I think the problem is that Chabot is way too relaxed in how he plays his game.

 

[Sens9292]

We aren’t losing because of Zaitsev. If the season hinges on the 6th / 7th defender winning games, team is a house of cards

 

[swiftwin]

I think the problem is that Chabot is way too relaxed in how he plays his game.

How he looks on the ice, and how he is mentally are not the same.

I'm saying he needs to relax mentally. He's clearly gripping his stick too tightly and second guessing himself with the puck on his stick.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

I think this is legitimately the first valid criticism against DJ I've seen yet this season (managing Chabot's minutes, not the Zub/Zaitsev thing).

I'd like to see Chabot's minutes go down a bit more. I'm starting to think he's putting too much pressure on himself. He's so used to being "the guy", and now with the added expectations of this season, it's getting to him mentally.

I think bringing down his minutes, and letting Sanderson take on a bigger role might make Chabot feel more supported and not feel like he has to do everything and be perfect, so he can just relax and play his game. At the same time though, there's still a bit of a balancing act where we can't let Sanderson bite off more than he can chew. But I still think there's room give some of Chabot's minutes to Sanderson.

DJ constantly using a 13th forward as his extra attacker, constantly allowing late period goals, and a lackluster powerplay are not valid criticisms?

 

[swiftwin]

DJ constantly using a 13th forward as his extra attacker, constantly allowing late period goals, and a lackluster powerplay are not valid criticisms?

Correct. They are not valid criticisms.

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

Why Sullivan?

Because he's a great coach?

 

[Sun God Nika]

Sounds like he has the whole year to show he is the right coach moving forward.

 

[bashbros32]

We aren’t losing because of Zaitsev. If the season hinges on the 6th / 7th defender winning games, team is a house of cards

Your first sentence is correct. However, your second is arguing the wrong point...

It isn't that the team is "relying on" a 6th or 7th defender to win us games.

it's asking that same 6th or 7th defender, who plays 15+ minutes a night, not to get caved in and scored on at the rate in which he has been caved in and scored on for 3 seasons...

it's asking him to make passes to a defender or forward capable of breaking out of the defensive zone instead of giving up every possession of the puck he gets by lobbing the puck down the ice off the glass or boards.

it's asking him not to cough up the puck in 75% of puck battles in our defensive end.

it's asking the coach to not play a 6th or 7th defender either on the bench, or strapped next to our best defender all night, playing as a #2.

 

[bert]

So one on hand, the analytics say we've outplayed our opposition and deserve a better record than 4-7 (I believe we're 10th in the league in xGoals %). Which is why many say we should keep DJ. (Essentially: we're a good team that's had some bad luck, but over the course of 82 games we'll win more than we lose if we play the same way). I can buy that argument. There's some logic to it.

But you're saying that we haven't outplayed anyone, our top players except for Tkachuk and Giroux have sucked, and that's why we should keep DJ?

If all of our players suck, that's not a great argument in favor of the coaching staff... Chabot, Stützle and Batherson all struggling is a reason why maybe we should make a coaching change.

I never said that, you already quoted a post where I said they likely deserve a better record than they have. I said the teams best players have been outplayed. They simply have been scored on more than they have scored. Thats why they have a losing record. Wouldnt a team getting more scoring chances than the others point to the system working but the players not excecuting? The coachs cant finish for them or defend for them. You go as far as your best players take you. You're in denial about it by the sounds of this conversation.

The thing is, he was bad in pre-season and he's continued to be bad in the regular season. And he hasn't racked up all that many minutes yet. We're only 11 games in.

It'd make sense if he got worse over the course of the year. But he's been bad from the start this season.

I think it's more likely that the coaching is happy with the style Chabot now plays with, and has discouraged him from playing how he did in 18/19 and junior. And if they're not happy with his play, there don't seem to be any consequences.

What a reach. DJ knows more about hockey than anyone posting here does. He is watching the video he knows he is playing poorly. Again you have no idea whats going on behind closed doors, more assumptions.

I do agree that his ice time hasnt suffered which is all DJ really has. But if he isnt changing the D men and its Capuano whos on the hook? Has to be both of them.

 

[bert]

How he looks on the ice, and how he is mentally are not the same.

I'm saying he needs to relax mentally. He's clearly gripping his stick too tightly and second guessing himself with the puck on his stick.

He isnt playing very instinctively thats for sure. Gord Wilson thinks he is hurt or sick. Seems like the most logical explanation to me. I find how poor he has played shocking.

 

[DaveMatthew]

I never said that, you already quoted a post where I said they likely deserve a better record than they have. I said the teams best players have been outplayed. They simply have been scored on more than they have scored. Thats why they have a losing record. Wouldnt a team getting more scoring chances than the others point to the system working but the players not excecuting? The coachs cant finish for them or defend for them. You go as far as your best players take you. You're in denial about it by the sounds of this conversation.


What a reach. DJ knows more about hockey than anyone posting here does. He is watching the video he knows he is playing poorly. Again you have no idea whats going on behind closed doors, more assumptions.

I do agree that his ice time hasnt suffered which is all DJ really has. But if he isnt changing the D men and its Capuano whos on the hook? Has to be both of them.

I don't know why you keep posting that DJ "knows more about hockey than anyone posting on here does". Of course he does, but that doesn't matter.

He, and the team, are not competing against people posting on this board. They're competing against other NHL teams and their coaches. And when you rank him against other NHL coaches, he's near the bottom of the list, IMO. The proof keeps showing up in the standings.

And If he disagrees with how Capuano is allocating ice time to defenseman, but is just standing idly by while the team loses games, that means he's not a very good head coach. I certainly hope that's not the case. If it is we're in worse shape than I thought.

We'll see where we are at the 20 game mark. But I can tell you this much, if the team is effectively eliminated from the playoffs by Christmas, a new ownership group that knows less about hockey than DJ Smith will come in and quickly fire him and Dorion. We need to be 6-3, at worst, and the next 9 games to stay in the race.

 

[KnockHobbler]

His power play and defensive structures are ass. The team usually starts the game late.

He’s not an nhl calibre coach.
Fire him.

 

[sensens]

He said the same thing right before he fired Boucher. Every NHL coach is fired right after an endorsement from the GM.

Very true... and if Smith wasn't right in the crosshairs heading into the season, he absolutely should be now. He was a relatively good transition coach during the rebuild, and helped implement a team culture of work ethic among the young stars. But work ethic is not a game strategy, and they really need someone who can actually coach at the NHL level and help the team win hockey games.

 

[Micklebot]

There are improvements that, Stützle and Chabot in particular, need to make in the short-term.

Sure, but they aren't the type of improvements that will be game changers, at least not short term. Players don't flip a switch and become much better defensive players, that's just not a reasonable expectation. I'd also argue that their issues have been less about defensive play and more about poor decisions with the puck, particularly Stutzle.
some things though, like the PP system, are much easier to correct short term.

The reality is we've been pretty true to our advanced stats, however one game was an outlier defensively, while there really is no comparable outlier offensively. The Florida game, we deserved what we got. remove that game and we go from 19th in xGA/60 and 24th in GA/60 to 7th in xGA/60 and 17th GA/60 at 5v5. The team has actually played solid defensive hockey the other 10 games, which is why I think defensive play is being exaggerated. Removing our best offensive game only drops us one spot in xGF/60 because we've been pretty consistent in generating chances.

Structurally, we are pretty average defensively. We have breakdowns, just like every other team in the league. We need to clean up some situational play (making risky plays late in a 1 goal game has cost us a couple times) and we need to cut back on penalties. But the idea that we need a complete overhaul defensively seems to come from the standings and box scores more than the actual play imo. The timing of our lapses has made them stand out, but I don't see them as being any more frequent than your average team, Florida game aside.

 

[JD1]

The team is scoring plenty of goals. We're 10th in the league in goals for per game. Eventually, Debrincat and Stützle will score more, but Giroux and Pinto will score less. It'll even out.

The problem hasn't been scoring goals. This team has the talent to score, and they have.

The problem has been overall team defensive gaffes and play. Agreed that Chabot needs to be way better, but team defense is where a coach can really have an impact. DJ and his staff haven't.

Hell, through the first 10 games of year 1 Pizza line we had scored 44 goals. This year through 10 we scored 37. We can score.

It's early. We've given up 4 empty net goals in 3 of the losses Two of those games were very winnable.

In the Minnesota game, DeBrincat missed two glorious chances. In the Buffalo game, we made 41 year old Craig Anderson look like 30 year old Domenic Hasek, he stopped 35 of 36. One goal in each of those games, we'd have three less goals against and we'd jump from 24th goals against to 15th.

In our case, in those two games where we had 65 shots on net and only 3 goals, goals do matter. Not scoring led to the empty netters.

I understand your general point. But we've lost 7 games. 4 by one goal. The other 3 we had empty netters against....so also one goal games. And with some top guys not scoring it shows in the W/L column.

Believe me, the team brass knows they've lost 7 one goal games

He is not very high on the list of issues if we're being honest with ourselves.

-PP sucks
-DeBrincat can't finish
-Stützle making costly giveaways (also sucking on the PP)
-No clear option to fill in for Norris has stepped up
-Chabot is struggling
-We take too many penalties

I'm glad JBD is getting a look, I've never been a fan of Zaitsev but he's taking a lot of crap for a guy filling in as a 7th d who's not really looked that bad. The above problems though have contributed a lot more to our loses than Zaitsev's 15 mins a night.

I completely agree

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I can't help but wonder if only ever playing for trainwreck bad teams these last few years, where results never mattered and never came, is affecting them taking the next step and playing the game the right way. Chabot looks like the same guy out there playing games like they don't matter as he loafs around the ice. Then its just mental mistakes all over from so many other guys, many being the guys that have to be relied on to lead.

 

[DaveMatthew]

It's early. We've given up 4 empty net goals in 3 of the losses Two of those games were very winnable.

In the Minnesota game, DeBrincat missed two glorious chances. In the Buffalo game, we made 41 year old Craig Anderson look like 30 year old Domenic Hasek, he stopped 35 of 36. One goal in each of those games, we'd have three less goals against and we'd jump from 24th goals against to 15th.

In our case, in those two games where we had 65 shots on net and only 3 goals, goals do matter. Not scoring led to the empty netters.

I understand your general point. But we've lost 7 games. 4 by one goal. The other 3 we had empty netters against....so also one goal games. And with some top guys not scoring it shows in the W/L column.

Believe me, the team brass knows they've lost 7 one goal games

It's early, but with every loss, the rest of the season gets tougher. We now need to play .585-.600% hockey to have "meaningful games" in March. When was the last time we did that for a 71 game span?

At some point, wins and losses matter. Even if they're 1 goal losses.

Vancouver lost 17 of their first 27 last year. 10 of those losses were by 1 goal or included an empty netter. But there are no points for "almost got it to overtime". Travis Green was fired, and he should've been. They probably should have done it sooner.

We'll see how the next 9 go. But anything worse than 6-3 will be disaster for both Dorion and Smith and their hopes of being here under new ownership.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

LMAO

 

[Cosmix]

Because he's a great coach?

What behavioural characteristics, coaching experiences and hockey accomplishments make him a great coach?

 

[DaveMatthew]

I can't help but wonder if only ever playing for trainwreck bad teams these last few years, where results never mattered and never came, is affecting them taking the next step and playing the game the right way. Chabot looks like the same guy out there playing games like they don't matter as he loafs around the ice. Then its just mental mistakes all over from so many other guys, many being the guys that have to be relied on to lead.

This is the hardest hurdle for a rebuilding team to overcome. Fans always think that if you draft high, you'll get good prospects, and those prospects will improve every year, and then you'll be good for a long time.

But the reality is, for every rebuild that leads to serious Stanley Cup contention, there are 2-3 that just tread water.

That's why it was so important to bring in a guy like Claude Giroux. You can tell just by his comments that his standards and urgency are way higher than anyone else's on the roster.

Hopefully we didn't bring him in too late.

 

[swiftwin]

His power play and defensive structures are ass.

Can you elaborate on what makes the defensive structure "ass"?

I feel like alot of people keep repeating this but don't actually know how or why. Just that we're losing, and repeating "defensive structure" makes themselves feel smart.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Sure, but they aren't the type of improvements that will be game changers, at least not short term. Players don't flip a switch and become much better defensive players, that's just not a reasonable expectation. I'd also argue that their issues have been less about defensive play and more about poor decisions with the puck, particularly Stutzle.
some things though, like the PP system, are much easier to correct short term.

The reality is we've been pretty true to our advanced stats, however one game was an outlier defensively, while there really is no comparable outlier offensively. The Florida game, we deserved what we got. remove that game and we go from 19th in xGA/60 and 24th in GA/60 to 7th in xGA/60 and 17th GA/60 at 5v5. The team has actually played solid defensive hockey the other 10 games, which is why I think defensive play is being exaggerated. Removing our best offensive game only drops us one spot in xGF/60 because we've been pretty consistent in generating chances.

Structurally, we are pretty average defensively. We have breakdowns, just like every other team in the league. We need to clean up some situational play (making risky plays late in a 1 goal game has cost us a couple times) and we need to cut back on penalties. But the idea that we need a complete overhaul defensively seems to come from the standings and box scores more than the actual play imo. The timing of our lapses has made them stand out, but I don't see them as being any more frequent than your average team, Florida game aside.

I don't know, it seems like the early season analytics make us look better than we are, because all of the analysts that are actually watching the games (McLennan, Johnson, Methot, Poulin, O'Neill) continue to harp on our bad team defensive play.

O'Neill said it bluntly yesterday on Overdrive. Essentially, "The Senators can score goals, and will have no problem scoring goals. But they're going nowhere until they figure out how to defend."

 

[DaveMatthew]

Can you elaborate on what makes the defensive structure "ass"?

I feel like alot of people keep repeating this but don't actually know how or why. Just that we're losing, and repeating "defensive structure" makes themselves feel smart.

Marc Methot does a pretty good job breaking it down, game in game out on Twitter and TSN. Poor support by forwards in transition, defensemen collapsing down low without communicating and both ending up on the same guy or winding up behind the net, being "easy to play against" down low, general dislike of everything Zaitsev does, etc.