Proposal: Fire DJ Smith

[JackieDaytona]

Winning will solve everything. So just f***ing win and all of these debates and petty arguments (and lots of people posting good valid stuff here, both sides etc) about why we aren’t winning and who is responsible just go away.

That said… Zaitsev isn’t losing us games directly. But how does one go from healthy scratch to 2nd in ice time? There’s gotta be a better way that makes more sense. Maybe we’re not losing directly because of him (sure as shit isn’t helping imo) but what if some of those minutes went others who y know, are objectively better? That might help?

Similarly, brassard. Why is he on the PP and getting the extra man 6 on 5 duties? How does one go from PTO maybe signing, to 13th forward, to first choice on additional clutch ice time? These are perplexing decisions.

 

[Micklebot]

Right now we're scoring 3.45 goals per game. As a franchise, we haven't scored more than 3 per game since 08/09.

Last year, 3.45 goals per game would have ranked 9th in the league.
In 20/21, it would have ranked 2nd.
In 19/20, 2nd as well.
In 18/19, 5th.

If we need to have a top 5 offense to play "meaningful" games, we're not playing meaningful games.

We don't have the pieces to expect that.

We need to be better defensively. Chabot needs to be better. Stützle needs to be better. Tkachuk needs to be better. Batherson needs to be better.

Goal scoring in general has climbed over the years and we currently have the most offensive weapons the team has had since the pizza line days so it's not surprising we are scoring closer to that level

The fact is we are scoring more because we are creating more chances. We earned the goals we scored. We might see Pinto regress a bit while Stu and DeBrincat climb up, and perhaps we will score a bit less overall, but it's not our 5v5 play that is hurting us, we creat way more chances than we give up. We need to do better on the PP, we have allowed way too many shorthanded chances are created far too little with the man advantage. Our PK had been adequate, but special teams is so clearly the low hanging fruit for this team.

 

[Tuna99]

When you go from talking about winning to talking up math equations like CF% then you know you’re screwed.

We’re Sens fans, we’ve see it all

JUST WIN YOU DONKEYS

 

[bicboi64]

Winning will solve everything. So just f***ing win and all of these debates and petty arguments (and lots of people posting good valid stuff here, both sides etc) about why we aren’t winning and who is responsible just go away.

That said… Zaitsev isn’t losing us games directly. But how does one go from healthy scratch to 2nd in ice time? There’s gotta be a better way that makes more sense. Maybe we’re not losing directly because of him (sure as shit isn’t helping imo) but what if some of those minutes went others who y know, are objectively better? That might help?

Similarly, brassard. Why is he on the PP and getting the extra man 6 on 5 duties? How does one go from PTO maybe signing, to 13th forward, to first choice on additional clutch ice time? These are perplexing decisions.

Stuff like this is DJ's biggest issue, seems to have no rationale behind his deployment. Even if Chabot, Cat, etc... play better, DJ needs to be better with his line up decisions.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Goal scoring in general has climbed over the years and we currently have the most offensive weapons the team has had since the pizza line days so it's not surprising we are scoring closer to that level

The fact is we are scoring more because we are creating more chances. We earned the goals we scored. We might see Pinto regress a bit while Stu and DeBrincat climb up, and perhaps we will score a bit less overall, but it's not our 5v5 play that is hurting us, we creat way more chances than we give up. We need to do better on the PP, we have allowed way too many shorthanded chances are created far too little with the man advantage. Our PK had been adequate, but special teams is so clearly the low hanging fruit for this team.

We give up just as many goals as we score. That's a problem. That's why we're not winning more games.

I'm not going to hang my hat only on analytics and conclude that we're good despite being 4-7. Do we deserve a better record? Probably. But it hasn't just been bad luck.

We need to be better defensively, I can't see how that's a controversial thing to say. Even if our offense keeps up this pace, to have a shot at the playoffs, we need to get GA down to 2.9-3.1 per game. Right now we're at 3.45.

If DJ's hope is that we just outscore other teams, well... chalk that up as another reason for why we should move on.

Jacques Martin had tons of offensive weapons when he was the coach. His main priority was still defense.

 

[Micklebot]

Well that's a real shame because we don't have two of the top 3 offensive players in the league that are on the ice for 22+ minutes a game.

We can be better defensively. It's not a personnel problem. It's an attention to details and focus problem.

We now have to play .600% hockey to have a chance at playing "meaningful games" in March. We won't do that giving up 3.45 goals per game.

And yet we have created more offensive chances than them. We do it via depth not two superstars, the point is we are built for offense, it's pretty plain to see.

We won't make big strides defensively, at least not 5v5. There's some stuff that can be cleaned up sure, getting Zub back will help of course, but it's not as bad as it's made out to be.

We can make the biggest improvement by fixing the pp and cutting back on the number of penalties we take. That's the low hanging fruit based on the personnel we have.

 

[aragorn]

We're 10th in the league in goals for per game.

We're 23rd in the league in goals against per game.

While we've had less goal contribution from some than expected (i.e. Debrincat), we've gotten more from others (i.e. Giroux, Tkachuk and Pinto scoring at a 44 goal pace each).

That'll probably normalize. Those 3 will score less, while Debrincat scores more. But expecting more than 3.45 goals per game, as a team, is not realistic.

Goal scoring and generating chances hasn't been the problem.

Defensive gaffes from forwards and defenseman have been.

I've also been saying that for the last 5 games.

 

[DaveMatthew]

And yet we have created more offensive chances than them. We do it via depth not two superstars, the point is we are built for offense, it's pretty plain to see.

We won't make big strides defensively, at least not 5v5. There's some stuff that can be cleaned up sure, getting Zub back will help of course, but it's not as bad as it's made out to be.

We can make the biggest improvement by fixing the pp and cutting back on the number of penalties we take. That's the low hanging fruit based on the personnel we have.

You don't think Stützle, Tkachuk and Batherson can be coached up to be better defensive and more responsible players?

We need to be better defensively. Expecting our offense to maintain this pace is foolhardy, let alone expecting it to improve. Brady Tkachuk won't end with 120 points. Giroux and Pinto won't score 45.

A regression is coming, and when it does, we better be more effective in our own end.

And if we don't have the personnel to do it, Dorion needs to go out and get some. Otherwise there'll be no meaningful games to play.

 

[Dionysus]

Two key injuries have exposed a lack of depth. All teams will have trouble with their top 2 centre and d out, but Ottawa does seem to be a bit thin on NHL talent.

The 4th line is playing 8 or 9 minutes a night and still getting caved in lately.

Losing Paul, Brown, and Formenton has made the bottom 6 a bit shallow. Giroux, Debrincat and Joseph are offensive upgrades no doubt. Would be nice to have Paul and Brown providing some steady defensive play and slotted on the 3rd line though.

 

[Micklebot]

We give up just as many goals as we score. That's a problem. That's why we're not winning more games.

I'm not going to hang my hat only on analytics and conclude that we're good despite being 4-7. Do we deserve a better record? Probably. But it hasn't just been bad luck.

We need to be better defensively, I can't see how that's a controversial thing to say. Even if our offense keeps up this pace, to have a shot at the playoffs, we need to get GA down to 2.9-3.1 per game. Right now we're at 3.45.

Nobody said it was bad luck, I gave two clear areas of opportunity, too many penalties and a stale PP. Fix those and we have more wins than loses right now,

Too much attention is being thrown on our defensive play but what I'm saying is that's trap, it's not as bad as it's being made out to be especially once Zub comes back. GA will come down naturally based on how we are playing if we limit the penalties, we've really only had one game where the defense was an outright disaster and that one game drags the defensive analytics of the team down, but people act like ever game has been a disaster.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Nobody said it was bad luck, I gave two clear areas of opportunity, too many penalties and a stale PP. Fix those and we have more wins than loses right now,

Too much attention is being thrown on our defensive play but what I'm saying is that's trap, it's not as bad as it's being made out to be especially once Zub comes back. GA will come down naturally based on how we are playing if we limit the penalties, we've really only had one game where the defense was an outright disaster and that one game drags the defensive analytics of the team down, but people act like ever game has been a disaster.

I'm not denying that a better PP would have resulted in more wins right now. We could certainly be 6-5, or even 7-4, instead of 4-7, if we got a couple of key goals at the right time.

I'm talking about what we need to do to get more wins over the next 71 games, though. And because of our bad start from a record perspective, we'll need to win 40-45 of them if we're to achieve the goal the team set out at the beginning of the year.

That's a different conversation. And we need to do more than just improve our PP if we want to play .563% or better hockey the rest of the way.

 

[bert]

You don't think Stützle, Tkachuk and Batherson can be coached up to be better defensive and more responsible players?

We need to be better defensively. Expecting our offense to maintain this pace is foolhardy, let alone expecting it to improve. Brady Tkachuk won't end with 120 points. Giroux and Pinto won't score 45.

A regression is coming, and when it does, we better be more effective in our own end.

And if we don't have the personnel to do it, Dorion needs to go out and get some. Otherwise there'll be no meaningful games to play.

Selling more of the farm isnt the answer until the team makes another step. I get people are impatient but if they dont turn the corner and have nothing in the cupboards all this losing wont be worth it. Panicking right now because the team has lost a bunch of one goal games is not the long term answer to building a contender.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Selling more of the farm isnt the answer until the team makes another step. I get people are impatient but if they dont turn the corner and have nothing in the cupboards all this losing wont be worth it. Panicking right now because the team has lost a bunch of one goal games is not the long term answer to building a contender.

Who said sell the farm?

You can go out and get a defensively capable 3rd line C, or winger, without selling the farm. And that would allow you to bump Motte down or not play Brassard/Gambrell every game.

Giving JBD (or Lassi Thomson) some minutes to see if they can step in over Zaitsev is also not panicking. It's a no-brainer. Luckily, that seems to be the plan tomorrow. Who knows, maybe he'll play well and we can bump Hamonic down when Zub gets back.

 

[Micklebot]

You don't think Stützle, Tkachuk and Batherson can be coached up to be better defensive and more responsible players?

I think they are young players that will improve over time, what I'm see is a PP which can improve quickly, and a focus on discipline that can improve the number of pims we take.

What your taking about are long term goals.

We need to be better defensively. Expecting our offense to maintain this pace is foolhardy, let alone expecting it to improve. Brady Tkachuk won't end with 120 points. Giroux and Pinto won't score 45.

I'm not saying we don't need to improve defensively, I'm saying we aren't as bad as the goals against sugggest. Our PP Absolutely can improve, and our 5v5 play hasn't been a mirage of unsustainable sh% so while it may di a bit, we should be fine.

A regression is coming, and when it does, we better be more effective in our own end.

You assume regression will only go one way, GA will also regress to the mean, our play has been better than the GA would suggest

And if we don't have the personnel to do it, Dorion needs to go out and get some. Otherwise there'll be no meaningful games to play.

We have the personnel we have, there are areas where they can be significantly better than they've shown, focus on those is what I'm saying and don't get hung up on the defensive play which imo hasn't been as bad as people are making it out.

 

[bert]

Who said sell the farm?

You can go out and get a defensively capable 3rd line C, or winger, without selling the farm. And that would allow you to bump Motte down or not play Brassard/Gambrell every game.

Giving JBD some minutes to see if he can step in over Zaitsev is also not panicking. It's a no-brainer. Luckily, that seems to be the plan tomorrow.

The team should be trying Thomson and JBD. Zaitsev shouldnt play period so we agree on that one. I guess I dont think Brassard and Gambrell are the reason this team is struggling. Its best players arent outplaying the other teams best players. Thats the problem.

 

[DaveMatthew]

What your taking about are long term goals.

There are improvements that, Stützle and Chabot in particular, need to make in the short-term.

 

[swiftwin]

IMO, people are exaggerating our defensive woes.

Some of the blame needs to be on goaltending too. Forsberg is not letting in bad goals, but he's also not making big saves when we need it either. I only remember one memorable save from Forsberg earlier in the season against the Caps, and one from Hellberg against the Stars. Which coincidentally are both games we've won. At the other end of the ice, it seems like the opposing goalie makes a save of the year contender every game. Wedgewood had that paddle save on Joseph. Fleury robbed DeBrincat twice. Vasi stoned Bath on the 2-on-0. Hart had a couple great saves. When you consider all our loses have been by one goal, sometimes, that's all it takes to win the game.

The stats also reflect this eye test, we're 27th in HDSV%, even though we're 14th in SV%:

And we're 25th in HDSH%

That mean we're either getting stoned or missing the net on our high danger chances.

Those two things combined can easily swing things one way or another in these one-goal games.

People love to use the term "unsustainable" when a team is winning when they shouldn't. But also goes both ways. These loses are unsustainable for us right now.

 

[DaveMatthew]

The team should be trying Thomson and JBD. Zaitsev shouldnt play period so we agree on that one. I guess I dont think Brassard and Gambrell are the reason this team is struggling. Its best players arent outplaying the other teams best players. Thats the problem.

I don't see how this can be true. Our underlying metrics show that for most of the game, we are outplaying the other team.

Tkachuk is on pace for 120 points. Batherson for 82. Giroux for 75. Stützle for 70.

The only real disappointment from a statistical perspective has been Debrincat, and from an overall play perspective Chabot.

The problem isn't that we're not outplaying the other team's best players. The problem is that while we've been able to carry the offensive play most of the time, and we have outplayed the other team in that sense, we've made too many gaffes that have ended up in our net and wiped the advantage out.

We carry the play for 10 minutes, and then bam, make a couple of bonehead plays over the span of 2 minutes and it's a tie game or we're down. It's easy for other teams to score against us. We can outplay them for 40 minutes and they come out of it with 3 or 4 goals.

It's the details.

 

[bert]

I don't see how this can be true. Our underlying metrics show that for most of the game, we are outplaying the other team.

Tkachuk is on pace for 120 points. Batherson for 82. Giroux for 75. Stützle for 70.

The only real disappointment from a statistical perspective has been Debrincat, and from an overall play perspective Chabot.

The problem isn't that we're not outplaying the other team's best players. The problem is that while we've been able to carry the offensive play most of the time, and we have outplayed the other team in that sense, we've made too many gaffes that have ended up in our net and wiped the advantage out.

We carry the play for 10 minutes, and then bam, make a couple of bonehead plays over the span of 2 minutes and it's a tie game or we're down.

It's the details.

Are you watching the games? The overall play from Chabot when in comparison to the other teams number 1 d man is night and day. He is playing 26 minutes a game. Batherson is minus 8 and has been invisible outside of a few games. Stutzle has just started to play. Thats been the difference. The bottom lines have been fine theyre all plus players except Kastelic who is -1. If your bottom 6 are scoring more than they are getting scored on who is responsible? Its not just about advanced stats they have to start putting the puck in the net. The only elite players who have exceeded expectations in terms of play are Tkachuk and Giroux.

 

[swiftwin]

I don't see how this can be true. Our underlying metrics show that for most of the game, we are outplaying the other team.

Tkachuk is on pace for 120 points. Batherson for 82. Giroux for 75. Stützle for 70.

The only real disappointment from a statistical perspective has been Debrincat, and from an overall play perspective Chabot.

The problem isn't that we're not outplaying the other team's best players. The problem is that while we've been able to carry the offensive play most of the time, and we have outplayed the other team in that sense, we've made too many gaffes that have ended up in our net and wiped the advantage out.

We carry the play for 10 minutes, and then bam, make a couple of bonehead plays over the span of 2 minutes and it's a tie game or we're down.

It's the details.

The kinds of boneheaded plays we're seeing are not systems based though. Chabot throwing the puck to Vegas, DeBrincat whiffing in front of the net, Stutzle with the brutal giveaway on the PP, Batherson with the risky pass with the ENG, etc.

A big goal of the team right now is that we want to carry the play in the offensive zone. We want to be the dominant possession based team that uses our size and tenacity to hem the opposing team in their zone. That's a big shift from previous years (even going back to Boucher), where we'd play rope-a-dope, and only try to score on the counter. As a result, these young players need to learn to manage the puck better and know when to make the safe play. It's a fine balancing act between allowing the creativity that allows us to dominate possession but not so much that we're making stupid passes that end up in our net.

When we don't have the puck, I'm not seeing major systemic breakdowns. Yes they happen sometimes, but they happen to every team.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Are you watching the games? The overall play from Chabot when in comparison to the other teams number 1 d man is night and day. He is playing 26 minutes a game. Batherson is minus 8 and has been invisible outside of a few games. Stutzle has just started to play. Thats been the difference. The bottom lines have been fine theyre all plus players except Kastelic who is -1. If you're bottom 6 are scoring more than they are getting scored on who is responsible? Its not just about advanced stats they have to start putting the puck in the net. The only elite players who have exceeded expectations in terms of play are Tkachuk and Giroux.

So one on hand, the analytics say we've outplayed our opposition and deserve a better record than 4-7 (I believe we're 10th in the league in xGoals %). Which is why many say we should keep DJ. (Essentially: we're a good team that's had some bad luck, but over the course of 82 games we'll win more than we lose if we play the same way). I can buy that argument. There's some logic to it.

But you're saying that we haven't outplayed anyone, our top players except for Tkachuk and Giroux have sucked, and that's why we should keep DJ?

If all of our players suck, that's not a great argument in favor of the coaching staff... Chabot, Stützle and Batherson all struggling is a reason why maybe we should make a coaching change.

 

[LuckyPierre]

Chabot is a good skater who doesn't skate enough. That is the reality.

Anyone else remember his WJC performance? That was the single most dominant performance I've ever seen from a d-man in that tournament. He was phenomenal because he was SKATING with speed. He did that in his first year or two in the NHL then seemingly decided to slow things down on purpose. Maybe it's a consequence of his minutes played...not sure....but the reason he is not a threat is because of how slow he plays now.

Exactly. At the WJC he was so powerful, fluid, and intentional with his skating. With the puck in the offensive zone, he was able to take a step, pause, and look off defenders at will because they had to respect his skating ability. He was breaking ankles and opening up lanes.

NHL calibre defenders don't respect his ability to step up in the offensive zone anymore because he rarely does it. He plays too many heavy minutes a season to be making explosive dashes with the puck. That's where proper coaching and deployment can support him and put him in a position to be the player we drafted him to be.

It makes me shake my head that DJ publicly stated that the more Chabot plays, the better he plays. There has never been any truth to that comment; the data has always suggested that the inverse is true. Combined with the Zaitsev is elite comment, and with him sitting Zub for the first month a couple of years back while the team barely won a game, it's clear that DJ's instincts are not the right instincts for this team.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Exactly. At the WJC he was so powerful, fluid, and intentional with his skating. With the puck in the offensive zone, he was able to take a step, pause, and look off defenders at will because they had to respect his skating ability. He was breaking ankles and opening up lanes.

NHL calibre defenders don't respect his ability to step up in the offensive zone anymore because he rarely does it. He plays too many heavy minutes a season to be making explosive dashes with the puck. That's where proper coaching and deployment can support him and put him in a position to be the player we drafted him to be.

It makes me shake my head that DJ publicly stated that the more Chabot plays, the better he plays. There has never been any truth to that comment; the data has always suggested that the inverse is true. Combined with the Zaitsev is elite comment, and with him sitting Zub for the first month a couple of years back while the team barely won a game, it's clear that DJ's instincts are not the right instincts for this team.

The thing is, he was bad in pre-season and he's continued to be bad in the regular season. And he hasn't racked up all that many minutes yet. We're only 11 games in.

It'd make sense if he got worse over the course of the year. But he's been bad from the start this season.

I think it's more likely that the coaching is happy with the style Chabot now plays with, and has discouraged him from playing how he did in 18/19 and junior. And if they're not happy with his play, there don't seem to be any consequences.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

Does Bruce not know how quotations work or did Pierre refer to himself in third person?

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Does Bruce not know how quotations work or did Pierre refer to himself in third person?

"He's shown that he can win"

When?