Fantasy GM Thread | Two Minutes to Midnight for Horvat?

[timw33]

I can still see a possible Miller trade as well.
There are aging playoff teams that can't wait to develop younger players.
Pittsburgh, Washington, Boston, Vegas

And then there are teams ready to take the next step that might want a high scoring veteran.

Plus teams in the same position as the Canucks, TO. What happens when Mathews contract expires after next year. For the price of Mathews if they think they can't either afford him or he wants to go, Miller and Horvat for the same price? Ya not a thought really but thinking outside of the box. Sort of like a pre-emptive Gaudreau situation.

GM's should be concerned about possibilities and thinking more than just now.

IMHO Miller to Washington seems almost a perfect fit, just not a fantastic return, maybe two 1rst's if lucky or just this year's. The cap space is the winner there more than anything. Back east Miller is a 99 pt player without the drama.

I think the Miller to WSH ship is sailing with Backstrom looking like he will actually return this season and come off LTIR. Although we could do a deal where we're just taking back a mediocre contract to cover the 5.4MM for Miller his year (Mantha?)—WSH has so many UFAs this offseason that they wouldn't have an issue with the tagging rule for next season at least.

 

[Vector]

I think the Miller to WSH ship is sailing with Backstrom looking like he will actually return this season and come off LTIR. Although we could do a deal where we're just taking back a mediocre contract to cover the 5.4MM for Miller his year (Mantha?)—WSH has so many UFAs this offseason that they wouldn't have an issue with the tagging rule for next season at least.

I have them earmarked as a Myers destination in the summer. Carlson as the only defenceman under contract and Fehevary as an RFA.

 

[Vector]

 

[theguardianII]

Islanders have less assets than almost every other team. Columbus, at this point, shouldn't be actually interested. Rangers, last I checked, weren't interested after signing Trochek.

You're not getting a top-10 pick for Bo purely because the teams trading for him are already playoff teams.

Makes good sense for Columbus, they just signed Gaudreau to a huge deal making them closer to a win now team.
NYI still have same assets, the Canucks would have to take a contract back but they have one or two expiring next year. They missed out on both Tkachuk, Kadri and Gaudreau.
NYR,

There are just so many teams have that assets that would be upgrades or have more potential than most players and prospects on this group.

The cap space is becoming less relevant trade impediment as the season roles on.

The ultimate short term goal of this team should be cap control and not winning at all for another year.

After being lost in the hockey world for 7 years following a path for 2 years should be easy.

 

[4Twenty]

I asked it in the Horvat trade/sign thread, but maybe it’s better here:

What is the highest return for a deadline rental in the cap era?

I’m not big on Newhook but I also believe that you’re not getting an A+ young player and a 1st for Horvat.

I think Vector’s 1st + Newhook is probably close to the high end on a return. Getting a 2nd for retaining half also makes sense.

I would guess the front office would rather an A+ young player over the 1st but no team ever seems to pay prices like this for rentals.


Warm body + 1st + B+ prospect and maybe another pick is the likely return.

 

[Iron Mike Sharpe]

If Columbus is interested, the Canucks should ask for David Jiricek in any deal, as he has potential to slot in next to Hughes, and seems to have the potential to make up for Hughes' weaknesses.

 

[Vector]

Makes good sense for Columbus, they just signed Gaudreau to a huge deal making them closer to a win now team.
NYI still have same assets, the Canucks would have to take a contract back but they have one or two expiring next year. They missed out on both Tkachuk, Kadri and Gaudreau.
NYR,

There are just so many teams have that assets that would be upgrades or have more potential than most players and prospects on this group.

The cap space is becoming less relevant trade impediment as the season roles on.

The ultimate short term goal of this team should be cap control and not winning at the all for another year.

After being lost in the hockey world for 7 years following a path for 2 years should be easy.

Blue Jackets only make sense if they can do a sign-and-trade with the Canucks for Horvat. During the offseason, I fully expected them to try and acquire an actual centre. At this stage in the season, they are just burning assets on a lost season. Islanders didn't have anything the Flames wanted for Tkachuk and couldn't sign Kadri or Gaudreau because they wouldn't offer what they eventually got.

Here's what the Islanders have:

Trade Assets:
Noah Dobson - RD - 4.0m / 3y (RFA) - 22yo - NHL
Alexander Romanov - LD/RD - 2.5m / 3y (RFA) - 22yo - NHL
Simon Holmstrom - RW - 0.863m / 2y (RFA) - 21yo - AHL
Aatu Raty - C - 0.855m / 3y (RFA) - 19yo - AHL

Salary Matching:
Semyon Varlamov - G - 5.0m / 1y (UFA) - 34yo - NHL

Draft Picks:
2023: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
2024: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
2025: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th

That's pretty much it. Dobson isn't actually available. They have Romanov and Raty (who's been merely okay in the AHL) and their draft picks (which will all be fairly late in the upcoming draft). They could ultimately trade for Horvat but it wouldn't be because the most enticing package but rather other teams didn't put together their actual best offer.

 

[Canucks LB]

If Columbus is interested, the Canucks should ask for David Jiricek in any deal, as he has potential to slot in next to Hughes, and seems to have the potential to make up for Hughes' weaknesses.

I would do 1 for 1 if its jiricek

 

[Vector]

If Columbus is interested, the Canucks should ask for David Jiricek in any deal, as he has potential to slot in next to Hughes, and seems to have the potential to make up for Hughes' weaknesses.

I would do 1 for 1 if its jiricek

I would be absolutely shocked if Jiricek is ever on the table. They have so many other trade options that there's no reason for them to do it.

 

[theguardianII]

I think the Miller to WSH ship is sailing with Backstrom looking like he will actually return this season and come off LTIR. Although we could do a deal where we're just taking back a mediocre contract to cover the 5.4MM for Miller his year (Mantha?)—WSH has so many UFAs this offseason that they wouldn't have an issue with the tagging rule for next season at least.

No NHL player has returned after his surgery, well 40 games in total for all. Even now there is doubt in Washington about his return.
IMO they are simply waiting for confirmation. I read up about his surgery and doctors don't recommend ANY heavy contact. I haven't found one that recommend a return. Not even that phenom Bo Jackson. He tried and failed.

I think Washington might also be a target for a Kuzmenko trade. How about both for two 1rst and two 2nds with Mantha and ?

Oddly one team as a trade partner for Miller could be Winnipeg? For Dubois if he isn't signing there? Or Boeser, closer to home, like a 6 hour or so drive. Winnipeg might be looking to the future there. But where does Dubois want to go? He has already stated he wants to move on. They might need a replacement for some of Wheeler's ice time too.

 

[racerjoe]

If I’m Yzerman I’d just wait until free agency.



As for the Avs, am I the only one sceptical regarding Newhook? I know he’s young but the the Avs gave him a prime opportunity to run with the 2C job this year and yet Evan Rodrigues took that spot before he got injured. In terms of importance to their roster this season he seems to rank below guys like Rodrigues and Compher

I don't think the wings would do it, but its a chance for them to jump the line. Who is to say if a team that trades for him wouldn't sign him too? Again I doubt they trade for him.

Again it is not that Newhook is a can't miss guy, its that teams won't offer up their Grade A prospects for a rental.

 

[theguardianII]

Blue Jackets only make sense if they can do a sign-and-trade with the Canucks for Horvat.

Hmmm, kind of like maybe a sign and trade with Miller? The rumoured Islander trade that didn't happen and again rumoured because they weren't allowed to talk to Miller to see what he would want for his next deal?
That signing would make sense if this is the case.
The contract is set and amounts can be polished.

Romanov and a pick coming back? Maybe taking back a contract for next year? Bailey? Future considerations? That would allow the Islanders to keep all their current players this year especially if the Canucks retained 50% of Miller's expiring contract. They might even pursue Schenn as well.

Oops, two different answers

Columbus is obviously all in next year and will have both trade assets and space. Canuck requirements are not the same as Calgary's.

Taking back Vorecek for a season will not hurt them or the Canucks. Likely not to return after his 7 or 8th confirmed concussion. That contract may even have a trade value to high spending teams.
Jarmo Kekalainen is not shy about going off the board or trading a big name players or signing big name players

 

[Vector]

The Red Wings are interesting not just because of the potential package they offer but what their ultimate motivation is. Yzerman is a very smart man that has handled the rebuild excellently. Yzerman clearly believes in strength down the middle and having high-powered scoring depth. He won with that and he replicated it with the Lightning. There are so many factors that go into any move they make in the next few months.

• their record without Larkin and Hronek and how long both will they be out
• if both are out long term does that motivate Yzerman to make a trade to replace them or keep those assets and wait
• what's the status of the Larkin extension talks?
• does their future salary cap structure allow for both Larkin and Horvat?
• if they can't get the Canucks to agree to some sort of sign-and-trade, what do they view the value Horvat's negotiating rights?
• does it make the most sense for them to just wait until he's UFA, especially if they are not in a playoff position; does this depend on Larkin?

So, I can see the Canucks and Red Wings both wanting to wait.

 

[Vector]

Hmmm, kind of like maybe a sign and trade with Miller? The rumoured Islander trade that didn't happen and again rumoured because they weren't allowed to talk to Miller to see what he would want for his next deal?
That signing would make sense if this is the case.
The contract is set and amounts can be polished.

Romanov and a pick coming back? Maybe taking back a contract for next year? Bailey? Future considerations? That would allow the Islanders to keep all their current players this year especially if the Canucks retained 50% of Miller's expiring contract. They might even pursue Schenn as well.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]To Canucks[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]To Islanders[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alexander Romanov[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Bo Horvat[/TD]
[TD](50% retained)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2nd (2023)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2nd (2024)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cap Implications[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Canucks[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Islanders[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]+2.75m[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]-2.75m[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Apparently the Canucks aren't willing to retain but those reports have been centred around guys with term. Dreger was asked about that earlier in the week and he said it was a good question and he doesn't know. If the Canucks retain, it further adds value to Horvat.

Another option is this:

To Canucks		To Islanders
Aatu Raty		Bo Horvat	(50% retained)
1st (2023)
2nd (2023)
3rd (2024)
Cap Implications
Canucks		Islanders
+2.75m		-2.75m

This is the JG Pageau trade but with their best prospect and no conditions on the draft picks. Granted, Pageau already had an extension in-hand. Horvat is a far superior player, however.

 

[Vector]

Also forgot to mention that the Red Wings have 13 UFAs on their roster and on IR. If they make absolutely no moves between now and July 1st there roster looks like this:

Raymond-Copp-Perron
Fabbri-Rasmussen-Czarnik
Kubalik-Veleno-Czarnik
Berggren-???-Zadina

Chiarot-Seider
???-Hronek
???-Lindholm

Husso
???

UFA Forwards:
Larkin, Bertuzzi, Suter, Sundqvist, & Erne

UFA Defenceman:
Oesterle, Walman, Kampfer, Maatta, Pysyk, & Hagg

UFA Goalies:
Nedeljkovic & Hellberg

So the Red Wings will be active. It just depends on when and what form does it take.

 

[rypper]

Am i crazy:

Newhook, Byram, 1st.

For

Horvat, Schenn.

Or if people aren't that crazy about Newhook we'll try to swindle Olausson, if we have to add so be it.

 

[andora]

Am i crazy:

Newhook, Byram, 1st.

For

Horvat, Schenn.

Or if people aren't that crazy about Newhook we'll try to swindle Olausson, if we have to add so be it.

At a straight no context trade it makes some sense.. but with context i cannot imagine they would even entertain this until they are convinced girard cannot be traded anywhere in the league for something positive

Depending on health as well i could totally see them not going big fish trading - essentially they just need another center that can keep up in all three zones..

 

[racerjoe]

Am i crazy:

Newhook, Byram, 1st.

For

Horvat, Schenn.

Or if people aren't that crazy about Newhook we'll try to swindle Olausson, if we have to add so be it.

I think we would be lucky to just get Byram at this point for that package.

 

[Horvat1C]

I think there are only a handful of places that might make sense for a Miller trade.

If we take back Johansen from Nashville then they get the better player at the same cap hit. We obviously get out from Miller's contract and Johansen's expires sooner. I don't know if we could get Fabbro without giving up Bear (seems like an unnecessary lateral move) but we should be able to get more in return.

Washington as others have mentioned makes sense assuming Backstrom is done. However, they only have one defenseman under contract for next year (Carlson) and not much cap space. I like the idea of taking back Mantha and pumping up his value beside Pettersson before selling him at the deadline. Besides that the return would likely be small. Maybe a Rathbone for McMichael swap could be included as well.

Pittsburgh might work but we would have to take back some cap for sure. The other team is Columbus but we'd have to make it very enticing for them.

 

[me2]

If Landeskog a pretty top end comp took 8.59% at roughly the same age how the hell could Morris be looking for 10%?

At this point it's greed from Horvats agent if you ask me or they are forcing the Canucks hand

Am i crazy:

Newhook, Byram, 1st.

For

Horvat, Schenn.

Or if people aren't that crazy about Newhook we'll try to swindle Olausson, if we have to add so be it.

Take out Byram and it sounds about right.

 

[4Twenty]

yes and it gives hem a leg up on the potential that Boston Colorado New York etc could offer a better chance to win asap if he gets to free agency

this is all posturing if you ask me we've seen it with Forsberg Landeskog etc lately that they make it uncomfortable to the point that a fair deal gets done

If Landeskog a pretty top end comp took 8.59% at roughly the same age how the hell could Morris be looking for 10%?

At this point it's greed from Horvats agent if you ask me or they are forcing the Canucks hand

Landy clearly and so obviously took a massive discount to stay in Colorado on a contender.

Duchene is at 9.6%, RyJo 10.5%, Hertl 9.98, Couture 10.03%, Hintz 10.45%

None of these guys had as impressive last 82 games as Horvat is having.

Not even including this year, the 4 previous seasons Bo is 33rd in points for Centre’s, and 20th in goals.

They all know the cap is going to balloon and 10% at time of signing with be like 8% before the 5th year.


Pay your good players. Don’t pay your non core.


I get wanting to get a huge discount but it’s not really the way the market is trending.

Like folks probably think Pettersson would take 8x $10m this summer. I doubt it. He bet on himself already. He’s going to do It again.

Won’t be shocked if he’s after 15-18% if he backs this season up.

 

[Buresflyingelbow]

I’d suggest a first and Svechkov - not sure how long he is under contract for but would fill a huge need that has remained unaddressed for years now.

1st + Askarov would be my ask from Nashville. At that point where we trade Horvat we should be looking at moving Demko as he wouldn’t be in our window anymore. Getting a bluechip Goalie Prospect in a Bo trade would be smart in making your next move, you’d have Martin here for another year at league minimum and open up Cap space.

 

[Vector]

Dreger:

-Canucks have specific needs; maybe it starts with cap space
-would like to add a young NHL centreman
-would also like a young NHL right-shot defenceman
-no timeline on Bo Horvat; if the right deal the trade can happen after the holiday roster freeze

Nothing we didn't already know.

 

[theguardianII]

Am i crazy:

Newhook, Byram, 1st.

For

Horvat, Schenn.

Or if people aren't that crazy about Newhook we'll try to swindle Olausson, if we have to add so be it.

Too risky.

Newhook is a pigmy and this group is small enough already if anything they need to get bigger especially for essentially a 3rd/4th line player

And Byram might be worth a chance he is dominant when playing but the concussion(s) are a concern.

Their 1rst's will be in the late 20's for a few years.

 

[theguardianII]

Columbus but we'd have to make it very enticing for them.

For Miller;

They put themselves on the clock when they signed Gaudreau. They also have Voracek (7 confirmed concussions and not playing) they might like to move so taking back him at the same time would be an enhancement

I don't think they would trade this year's 1rst pick but might do the 2nd and 2024 1rst with a good prospect (Jirek) and a "B" prospect (Marchenko). The B guy should be a very large guy that can skate if nothing else, but skating can be taught.

They could be a multi player big trade partner