Fantasy GM Thread | Two Minutes to Midnight for Horvat?

[Bourne Endeavor]

Why would Detroit spend any assets to acquire Horvat in-season when they aren't expected to make the playoff this year anyways? Might as well sign him as a UFA. I don't think they are desperately needing Horvat to the point where they will trade for him now to make sure he doesn't hit UFA.

Because they're in the playoff hunt and may want to cement themselves going forward. Getting Horvat now means they have a much longer period to sell him on the team and potentially convince him to take less to make things work. It isn't like they're wanting for assets either.

 

[Timmer44]

Trade Boeser to Calgary for Lucic and a 2nd or 3rd.

Try to sign Bo.

 

[sting101]

Getting Bo now allows the Wings to go 8 years on the contract. They save on the yearly cap allocation which allows them to build a better supporting group.

yes and it gives hem a leg up on the potential that Boston Colorado New York etc could offer a better chance to win asap if he gets to free agency

this is all posturing if you ask me we've seen it with Forsberg Landeskog etc lately that they make it uncomfortable to the point that a fair deal gets done

If Landeskog a pretty top end comp took 8.59% at roughly the same age how the hell could Morris be looking for 10%?

At this point it's greed from Horvats agent if you ask me or they are forcing the Canucks hand

 

[theguardianII]

Better start looking at Kuzmenko too.
Where will he fit?
What will his next contract offer look like?
How the h3ll will they fit his in too?
Who will come first Horvat's or Kuzmenko's?
Will one depend upon the other?
Kuzmenko will get a princely return too, especially with his current cap hit.
Currently at a point per game pace. And a good plus/minus.

Sure would be nice to have a plan or follow the statements that seemed to outline a plan.

 

[theguardianII]

yes and it gives hem a leg up on the potential that Boston Colorado New York etc could offer a better chance to win asap if he gets to free agency

this is all posturing if you ask me we've seen it with Forsberg Landeskog etc lately that they make it uncomfortable to the point that a fair deal gets done

If Landeskog a pretty top end comp took 8.59% at roughly the same age how the hell could Morris be looking for 10%?

At this point it's greed from Horvats agent if you ask me or they are forcing the Canucks hand

Not greed alone.
Horvat has had a team friendly deal last one.
He has never played for a cup or even on a team that was not in a the show without the NHL expanding by 8 teams, 50% more.
They did a team discount last time, this time is will be market value, it will be his last big payday.
Canucks had 9 years (drafted at 18 yrs old, he is 27 yrs old this season) with him to show something, they didn't.
Even now they are still "almost" there.
The Canucks play horseshoes while other play darts, winners or losers.
For the Canuck fans it seems, close is good enough.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

Getting Bo now allows the Wings to go 8 years on the contract. They save on the yearly cap allocation which allows them to build a better supporting group.

Because they're in the playoff hunt and may want to cement themselves going forward. Getting Horvat now means they have a much longer period to sell him on the team and potentially convince him to take less to make things work. It isn't like they're wanting for assets either.

I can see it for a superstar 1st liner where competition will be fierced in UFA and the cap hit will be very high. Horvat, while a very good player, is more in the 60pts range, and a 2C for contenders. Is it really that important to lock him up in-season? Don't forget, Wings also have Larkin that is in the same position. I doubt very much they want to spend a lot of assets acquiring Bo and extending him to long term big money, before getting the Larkin deal done.
And while the Wings have lots of assets, Yzerman is smart enough to not go spending them on non-core pieces before the rebuild is done. I doubt he sees his team's rebuild as "completed" at this point.
Also with 2/3 of the teams tight against the cap and the cap only going up by $1m this summer, is there really that many teams going in on Horvat? ROR is also UFA, there's also Toews, Bergeron, Krejci for short term fixes as well. There are options for teams missing out on Bo.
Its all speculating but I doubt teams like Wings or Blue Jackets wanting to pay market value to get Horvat over waiting until July and pitching him a UFA deal instead.

 

[Vector]

Thursday Rumour Roundup:

32 Thoughts:

1. I don’t believe in absolutes. Feelings change over time. What you think today might not be what you think tomorrow, and everyone should avoid emotional decisions. That said, we’re 11 weeks from the trade deadline, and it’s getting extremely hard to see Bo Horvat wearing a Johnny Canuck reverse retro past March 3.

I don’t profess to know Horvat well, but here’s my amateur psychology: he’s very proud to be Vancouver’s captain, definitely capable of handling the Canadian microscope. But he prefers to keep the spotlight at arm’s length and does not like his business splashed over the internet like a Kardashian. Horvat won’t do the hockey equivalent of smashing 62 home runs like Aaron Judge in the all-time contract season, but he sure doesn’t seem distracted — on-pace for 59 goals heading into Wednesday’s game in Calgary. In his mind: summers are for talking, seasons are for playing.

2. How did we get here? At the draft, there was league-wide consensus Horvat would be extended, with J.T. Miller’s negotiation more of a challenging escape-room puzzle. The Canucks initially indicated they saw Horvat in similar mold to Edmonton’s Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, although that was more of a conceptual thing as opposed to offering him a similar contract ($5.125 million AAV, lower than what Horvat is earning now).

Whatever the case, there was never a time an extension appeared close. As Labour Day approached, Vancouver pivoted to Miller — reigniting talks and completing a contract out of nowhere. Because of what happened with Miller, I’m loathe to declare this over. It sounds like they’ve offered Horvat both seven- and eight-year deals, but multiple sources indicate the chasm is wide and bridging it “will be difficult.”

They’ve definitely put him on the market, with teams indicating the Canucks are asking what you’d want for a premium rental. Tight cap situations mean there’s time to sort it out, and Vancouver could try to sign him again. The challenge as I see it is they’re not keen on going over Miller’s $56 million figure, and Horvat’s monster season puts him in position to go above that.

3. Some other stuff about the Canucks: They’re determined to create cap room. That will take some creativity, but aren’t interested in moving first-rounders and would like to replace the second-rounder sent to Chicago in the Jason Dickinson-Riley Stillman deal. Elias Pettersson can be extended this summer, and even though he isn’t a UFA until July 2025, it’s already on their radar.

4. In Bruce Boudreau’s first 82 games as coach of the Canucks, the team had 97 points. Last year, that ties them with Nashville for the second wild card. This year, it’s slightly above the cutline. With all the craziness, you’d think Vancouver had 30 points in that span.

5. Was talking trades with one GM this week. “What kind of calculator are you using?” he asked. “None of this stuff is mathematically possible.”

---

The Athletic's Trade Board

1) Bo Horvat

As I reported earlier this week, the Canucks dropped another contract offer to Horvat’s camp, led by agent Pat Morris, a couple of weeks ago, but it didn’t produce any resolution. The Canucks then informed Horvat and his camp that they would focus on trading him. I think part of this might be the Canucks captain wanting to wait until after the season to negotiate, which is common among high-profile pending UFAs. But the trade market for Horvat will be red-hot. And because he doesn’t have a no-trade clause, the Canucks can entertain the max number of bidders. I don’t anticipate a quick resolution because so many contending teams are so close to the cap, but as we get closer to March 3, watch out. I really like him as a fit in Colorado, and there’s no question that as we close in on the deadline the Avalanche will want to add to their top six, having never replaced the departed Nazem Kadri. — Pierre LeBrun

9) Brock Boeser

Teams are showing interest because of the talent, but taking the cap hit full-on is a turnoff: two more seasons left after this one, with a $6.65 million average annual. The fact the Canucks have allowed Boeser’s agent, Ben Hankinson, to seek potential trade partners directly underlines management’s recognition that it won’t be easy to move that kind of money. The obvious team to single out here is Boeser’s native Minnesota Wild, and yes, the Wild have talked about Boeser, for sure. But the cap hit, again, is a huge issue. The Canucks have to clear max cap space in any Boeser trade; it just doesn’t feel like salary retention is an option here. Taking a contract back as part of the deal, sure. But I don’t think salary retention on Boeser is something Vancouver wants to do. That’s why I think this process will play out for a while. — LeBrun

25) Luke Schenn

His agent, Hankinson, created a firestorm recently when he tweeted a CanucksArmy.com article pumping up the value of his client and wrote, “Luke Schenn…perfect deadline acquisition.” Canucks Twitter figured that was Schenn’s agent’s way of saying Schenn wanted out in advance of the deadline. Hankinson and Schenn have both since walked it back, but regardless, the rugged defensive defenseman and two-time Stanley Cup champ would be appealing to a team that needs to bulk up on the back end or add depth. — Russo

 

[nucksflailtogether]

What if we offer a massive package to a contender, like Horvat - Schenn - Kuz. Could any team just completely blow their load and give us all the assets needed to kickstart a retool?

 

[wonton15]

Get Myers off this team yesterday

 

[Vector]

What if we offer a massive package to a contender, like Horvat - Schenn - Kuz. Could any team just completely blow their load and give us all the assets needed to kickstart a retool?

Contenders don't have enough assets to facilitate that kind of deal. Most barely have enough high-end assets to even land Horvat.

 

[credulous]

What if we offer a massive package to a contender, like Horvat - Schenn - Kuz. Could any team just completely blow their load and give us all the assets needed to kickstart a retool?

what team is going to want to do that? what team has the assets to do it? unless detroit wants to try to speedrun a stanley cup i don't think it's really possible for any team to give up enough without also torpedoing their chances of competing beyond this year

 

[m9]

What if we offer a massive package to a contender, like Horvat - Schenn - Kuz. Could any team just completely blow their load and give us all the assets needed to kickstart a retool?

Contenders don't have enough assets to facilitate that kind of deal. Most barely have enough high-end assets to even land Horvat.

I think you are correct that teams don't really have the assets. But what if this is the way you acquire a blue-chip, high-end asset even if you lose value in the deal?

Like, maybe Dallas doesn't want to trade Wyatt Johnston for Bo Horvat. What about for a retained Bo plus Schenn?

Same thing with Colorado/Byram.

 

[Vector]

I think you are correct that teams don't really have the assets. But what if this is the way you acquire a blue-chip, high-end asset even if you lose value in the deal?

Like, maybe Dallas doesn't want to trade Wyatt Johnston for Bo Horvat. What about for a retained Bo plus Schenn?

Same thing with Colorado/Byram.

Agreed and I still don't think most teams would be willing to trade young players of that caliber for 2-3 rentals. Certainly possible, though. The 90s and 00s were full of these kinds of trades and I miss them so much.

 

[racerjoe]

Agreed and I still don't think most teams would be willing to trade young players of that caliber for 2-3 rentals. Certainly possible, though. The 90s and 00s were full of these kinds of trades and I miss them so much.

The value of cost control has gone way up with the Cap.

I do think teams need to look harder at when they should be pushing all in though. If I am Col I do push all in, but I try hard to make the deal around Newhook if I am them.

 

[Vector]

The value of cost control has gone way up with the Cap.

I do think teams need to look harder at when they should be pushing all in though. If I am Col I do push all in, but I try hard to make the deal around Newhook if I am them.

I've been shouting this for quite a while. You actually can see it with the Lightning. They are not scared to deal away their draft picks since they are almost always getting a player with term or consider part of the return of a UFA negotiating rights (ex: Nick Paul). The pendulum seems to have swung from teams going all in to trade everything for a UFA to most teams being extremely hesitant to give up anything of value.

One trade with the Avalanche that I came up with was the following:

To Canucks		To Avalanche
Alex Newhook		Bo Horvat	(50% retained)
Darren Helm
1st (2023)
2nd (2025)
Cap Implications
Canucks		Avalanche
+1.5m		-1.5m

 

[racerjoe]

I've been shouting this for quite a while. You actually can see it with the Lightning. They are not scared to deal away their draft picks since they are almost always getting a player with term or consider part of the return of a UFA negotiating rights (ex: Nick Paul). The pendulum seems to have swung from teams going all in to trade everything for a UFA to most teams being extremely hesitant to give up anything of value.

One trade with the Avalanche that I came up with was the following:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]To Canucks[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]To Avalanche[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Newhook[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Bo Horvat[/TD]
[TD](50% retained)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Darren Helm[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1st (2023)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2nd (2025)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cap Implications[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Canucks[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Avalanche[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]+1.5m[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]-1.5m[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Honestly at the deadline I probably do that deal in a heartbeat. I don't think teams will give up an asset better then Newhook, and that first isn't looking to late at this point.

 

[Nucker101]

If I’m Yzerman I’d just wait until free agency.



As for the Avs, am I the only one sceptical regarding Newhook? I know he’s young but the the Avs gave him a prime opportunity to run with the 2C job this year and yet Evan Rodrigues took that spot before he got injured. In terms of importance to their roster this season he seems to rank below guys like Rodrigues and Compher

 

[Canucker]

I've been shouting this for quite a while. You actually can see it with the Lightning. They are not scared to deal away their draft picks since they are almost always getting a player with term or consider part of the return of a UFA negotiating rights (ex: Nick Paul). The pendulum seems to have swung from teams going all in to trade everything for a UFA to most teams being extremely hesitant to give up anything of value.

One trade with the Avalanche that I came up with was the following:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]To Canucks[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]To Avalanche[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Newhook[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Bo Horvat[/TD]
[TD](50% retained)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Darren Helm[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1st (2023)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2nd (2025)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cap Implications[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Canucks[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Avalanche[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]+1.5m[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]-1.5m[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

I don't mind this trade...seems pretty fair based simply on value...if i were Colorado I'd be a little concerned about only having 3 picks at the end of the draft, but to your point, they are bringing in a piece they'd likely find a way to try to re-sign...I think some of it would be having to try and negotiate a deal with Bo that they're going to be able to fit in.

 

[Canucker]

If I’m Yzerman I’d just wait until free agency.



As for the Avs, am I the only one sceptical regarding Newhook? I know he’s young but the the Avs gave him a prime opportunity to run with the 2C job this year and yet Evan Rodrigues took that spot before he got injured. In terms of importance to their roster this season he seems to rank below guys like Rodrigues and Compher

If you're waiting for free agency you'll also be in line with other teams looking to out-bid you, or at the very least drive up the price.

I'm on the fence about Newhook, but I'm not sure we're going to get a better prospect for Bo than Newhook. I think we're going to get similar offers that we got for Miller...a package of decent but middling prospects...no real blue chippers. I hope to be proven wrong about it, but the past few years have made me a skeptic.

 

[nucksflailtogether]

Contenders don't have enough assets to facilitate that kind of deal. Most barely have enough high-end assets to even land Horvat.

If I'm a contender that's running out of time I package up my next few firsts and go for it. Toronto comes to mind, a team that's a contender but strapped for cash. Maybe just a Kuz/Schenn package could make more sense.

 

[theguardianII]

I've been shouting this for quite a while. You actually can see it with the Lightning. They are not scared to deal away their draft picks since they are almost always getting a player with term or consider part of the return of a UFA negotiating rights (ex: Nick Paul). The pendulum seems to have swung from teams going all in to trade everything for a UFA to most teams being extremely hesitant to give up anything of value.

One trade with the Avalanche that I came up with was the following:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]To Canucks[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]To Avalanche[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Newhook[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Bo Horvat[/TD]
[TD](50% retained)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Darren Helm[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1st (2023)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2nd (2025)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cap Implications[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Canucks[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Avalanche[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]+1.5m[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]-1.5m[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Need more coming back as far as picks. a 2023 25th will be valuable but no enough. Ideally a top 10 pick would be good but failing that a better prospect or player. I am not sure about Byram's concussion stuff but he would be a possible player to pursue if Colorado is a suitor.

I would like other assets, maybe from NYR, Columbus, NYI many other teams

But that could be an offer for Horvat

 

[Vector]

Need more coming back as far as picks. a 2023 25th will be valuable but no enough. Ideally a top 10 pick would be good but failing that a better prospect or player. I am not sure about Byram's concussion stuff but he would be a possible player to pursue if Colorado is a suitor.

I would like other assets, maybe from NYR, Columbus, NYI many other teams

But that could be an offer for Horvat

Islanders have less assets than almost every other team. Columbus, at this point, shouldn't be actually interested. Rangers, last I checked, weren't interested after signing Trochek.

You're not getting a top-10 pick for Bo purely because the teams trading for him are already playoff teams.

 

[Vector]

Honestly at the deadline I probably do that deal in a heartbeat. I don't think teams will give up an asset better then Newhook, and that first isn't looking to late at this point.

When I first came up with this (and I have 13 teams with 3 trade scenarios each with a write up for all of them), the season was just starting. Newhook's value has depreciated since then but their 1st has climbed so the total value probably evens out. It's gone from one I'd definitely take to one I'd be just okay with.

 

[theguardianII]

I can still see a possible Miller trade as well.
There are aging playoff teams that can't wait to develop younger players.
Pittsburgh, Washington, Boston, Vegas

And then there are teams ready to take the next step that might want a high scoring veteran.

Plus teams in the same position as the Canucks, TO. What happens when Mathews contract expires after next year. For the price of Mathews if they think they can't either afford him or he wants to go, Miller and Horvat for the same price? Ya not a thought really but thinking outside of the box. Sort of like a pre-emptive Gaudreau situation.

GM's should be concerned about possibilities and thinking more than just now.

IMHO Miller to Washington seems almost a perfect fit, just not a fantastic return, maybe two 1rst's if lucky or just this year's. The cap space is the winner there more than anything. Back east Miller is a 99 pt player without the drama.

 

[Vector]

If I'm a contender that's running out of time I package up my next few firsts and go for it. Toronto comes to mind, a team that's a contender but strapped for cash. Maybe just a Kuz/Schenn package could make more sense.

I'm a little bit surprised that the Leafs and Penguins, or another team thin on defence, hasn't offered something real enticing for Schenn right now. I get they are trying to weather the injury storm and everyone is loathe to give up assets but Schenn is one of the few defenceman available that can fit into any team's cap structure.