Fantasy GM Thread | Two Minutes to Midnight for Horvat?

[racerjoe]

Landy clearly and so obviously took a massive discount to stay in Colorado on a contender.

Duchene is at 9.6%, RyJo 10.5%, Hertl 9.98, Couture 10.03%, Hintz 10.45%

None of these guys had as impressive last 82 games as Horvat is having.

Not even including this year, the 4 previous seasons Bo is 33rd in points for Centre’s, and 20th in goals.

They all know the cap is going to balloon and 10% at time of signing with be like 8% before the 5th year.


Pay your good players. Don’t pay your non core.


I get wanting to get a huge discount but it’s not really the way the market is trending.

Like folks probably think Pettersson would take 8x $10m this summer. I doubt it. He bet on himself already. He’s going to do It again.

Won’t be shocked if he’s after 15-18% if he backs this season up.

Replying here to at least move our conversation out of the Former Canucks thread.

By your own numbers you have Horvat as the 25-30 best Centre in the NHL.

That puts him at around 6 mil-7.2 mil range. Using this as a reference using next years cap for centres.

 

[Horvat1C]

For Miller;

They put themselves on the clock when they signed Gaudreau. They also have Voracek (7 confirmed concussions and not playing) they might like to move so taking back him at the same time would be an enhancement

I don't think they would trade this year's 1rst pick but might do the 2nd and 2024 1rst with a good prospect (Jirek) and a "B" prospect (Marchenko). The B guy should be a very large guy that can skate if nothing else, but skating can be taught.

They could be a multi player big trade partner

I agree that signing Gaudreau was a big move for them, but I don't think they'd be interested in Miller at all if they had to pay a premium. Taking back Voracek would be required in this cap landscape, not a bonus. The only reason Columbus might make sense is that Miller wouldn't be against going there and historically they have trouble attracting and keeping their talent, Gaudreau being the exception. They could be one of the few teams that view Miller's extension in a positive light.

Miller for Voracek + 2023 2nd would be the structure of the deal. Maybe other pieces like Roslovic, Rathbone, Marchenko, etc. could be included as well. Keep in mind that the 2nd is very high.

 

[andora]

Dreger:

-Canucks have specific needs; maybe it starts with cap space
-would like to add a young NHL centreman
-would also like a young NHL right-shot defenceman
-no timeline on Bo Horvat; if the right deal the trade can happen after the holiday roster freeze

Nothing we didn't already know.

Oh pretty please klingberg to edmonton, that would create so much comedy

 

[theguardianII]

Replying here to at least move our conversation out of the Former Canucks thread.

By your own numbers you have Horvat as the 25-30 best Centre in the NHL.

That puts him at around 6 mil-7.2 mil range. Using this as a reference using next years cap for centres.

I think that by next year's series of contracts come around 8 to 9 mil might not be an exceptionally large step or % of the cap.

It is just those numbers should be for winning teams not bottom feeders or wannabe's.

Individually Horvat is almost the perfect NHL player, wins FO's, durable, has a rep as a very good playoff player, well spoken and used to high pressure media.

If this team was closer to being a contender and not a pretender then keeping him at all costs is a great idea BUT this isn't.

All the pressure to stay here is just fans being selfish and afraid of change.

The media need something to have as a topic and since the team is so bad constantly it will be how the team needs to keep Bo.

Horvat is just the tip of the spear for cap issues arising and that is without even addressing the playing problems, the team construction.

If Miller was thought to be too old in 4 or 5 years then what about Horvat? He is no spring chicken in NHL career years.

Horvat will be 28 yrs old in BEFORE he starts his next and biggest contract.
At the end of next season he is 29 yrs old, the first year of an eight year deal if that is what it ends up being. Does that mean there will not be any other player to take his spot or the team even looking to replace him?

Many posters complain about Gillis's draft picks not playing but back then the core was set and where they picked in the draft those players could not break into the lineup. But then they were very late picks
Something similar is happening now with a bottom feeder, if he signs then how do any other players ever crack the line up if he is assured the roster spot?

 

[Vector]

It is kinda weird how all the talk is centered around Horvat when Dylan Larkin is also a pending UFA. Had a better season last year, better career high, younger, has a better ppg career average (0.72 vs 0.66). He's almost assuredly going to get into the upper echelon of contracts as well.

 

[Nucker101]

It is kinda weird how all the talk is centered around Horvat when Dylan Larkin is also a pending UFA. Had a better season last year, better career high, younger, has a better ppg career average (0.72 vs 0.66). He's almost assuredly going to get into the upper echelon of contracts as well.

Canadian market. Plus I think most people just assume they’ll lock up Larkin being a hometown kid in Detroit and the Wings having a shit load of cap space.

 

[racerjoe]

Its why I think Cap percentage is the best tool to use, when going year to year you can account for the growth.

I think there hasn't been a lot of talk about Larkin mainly as people think he will stay with the Wings.

 

[4Twenty]

Replying here to at least move our conversation out of the Former Canucks thread.

By your own numbers you have Horvat as the 25-30 best Centre in the NHL.

That puts him at around 6 mil-7.2 mil range. Using this as a reference using next years cap for centres.

I don’t subscribe to how you’re drawing your conclusions.

Could you explain how my own numbers suggest hes a 6-7mil player? Market value isn’t dictated based on where you fall on the list. It’s on what you do. Maybe jump in as well @Vector you liked it so I’m assuming you get it?

I’m putting him in the class of players already earning $8m like Couture, Ryan Johansen, Hertl, Hintz, Duchene.

Horvat plays more per game than many of these “1C’s”. He’s utilized like a top 15 C.


He scores goals like a top 20 guy (not even including this season).

 

[4Twenty]

It is kinda weird how all the talk is centered around Horvat when Dylan Larkin is also a pending UFA. Had a better season last year, better career high, younger, has a better ppg career average (0.72 vs 0.66). He's almost assuredly going to get into the upper echelon of contracts as well.

I fully expect him in the $10m range.

 

[racerjoe]

I don’t subscribe to how you’re drawing your conclusions.

Could you explain how my own numbers suggest hes a 6-7mil player? Market value isn’t dictated based on where you fall on the list. It’s on what you do. Maybe jump in as well @Vector you liked it so I’m assuming you get it?

I’m putting him in the class of players already earning $8m like Couture, Ryan Johansen, Hertl, Hintz, Duchene.

Horvat plays more per game than many of these “1C’s”. He’s utilized like a top 15 C.


He scores goals like a top 20 guy (not even including this season).

You has him at the 33 highest pts guy as a centre. The 28-33 highest paid centres for next season are being paid in the 6mil to 7.2 mil range.

 

[4Twenty]

You has him at the 33 highest pts guy as a centre. The 28-33 highest paid centres for next season are being paid in the 6mil to 7.2 mil range.

I thought so. Couldn’t disagree more with this point rank = salary ideology.

Content to move on though. My thoughts are out there.

 

[Vector]

I don’t subscribe to how you’re drawing your conclusions.

Could you explain how my own numbers suggest hes a 6-7mil player? Market value isn’t dictated based on where you fall on the list. It’s on what you do. Maybe jump in as well @Vector you liked it so I’m assuming you get it?

I’m putting him in the class of players already earning $8m like Couture, Ryan Johansen, Hertl, Hintz, Duchene.

Horvat plays more per game than many of these “1C’s”. He’s utilized like a top 15 C.


He scores goals like a top 20 guy (not even including this season).

We’re moving on from the discussion but I will say I fully expect Horvat to get 8.5m minimum. My issue is that I’m not bought in on the small sample size of part of last season, his high shooting percentage, or that he has twice as many tip in goals as anyone else. It’s paying top dollar for a career season and while I think he’ll probably end up with some nice 70 point seasons, I don’t think he makes sense for the team at this point. Ditto for Miller.

I fully expect him in the $10m range.

I think he will but I have a sneaky suspicion that he’ll end up under it. Can’t quite pin down why.

Canadian market. Plus I think most people just assume they’ll lock up Larkin being a hometown kid in Detroit and the Wings having a shit load of cap space.

So was Gaudreau and we barely heard a peep throughout the season. The longer it drags on, the less convinced I am. There were reports last season the Red Wings have made everyone, except Raymond and Seider, available.

 

[bandwagonesque]

Something I've felt for a couple of years but haven't articulated is that if the Canucks start to rebuild, the team will probably be better pretty much immediately. A team with a decent core on paper that sucks and is mortgaged to the hilt isn't more likely to keep Pettersson or Hughes here than a rebuilding team with promise. Sometimes it's like people forget the players are aware of how drafting/prospects factor in. And as I said, I could see the team being more competitive right away simply due to the change in outlook.

 

[credulous]

if you could buy horvat's 23-29 year old seasons for 8.5 mil i'd be all for it. his 28-34 year old seasons are way less attractive. he's already a mediocre skater, a mediocre penalty killer and not a play driver 5v5. his value going forward is going to be as a face off guy and a power play weapon and 8.5 mil is way, way too much to pay for that

 

[sting101]

Landy clearly and so obviously took a massive discount to stay in Colorado on a contender.

Duchene is at 9.6%, RyJo 10.5%, Hertl 9.98, Couture 10.03%, Hintz 10.45%

None of these guys had as impressive last 82 games as Horvat is having.

Not even including this year, the 4 previous seasons Bo is 33rd in points for Centre’s, and 20th in goals.

They all know the cap is going to balloon and 10% at time of signing with be like 8% before the 5th year.


Pay your good players. Don’t pay your non core.


I get wanting to get a huge discount but it’s not really the way the market is trending.

Like folks probably think Pettersson would take 8x $10m this summer. I doubt it. He bet on himself already. He’s going to do It again.

Won’t be shocked if he’s after 15-18% if he backs this season up.

I argued this stuff with you regarding the Leafs when they signed Marner and how did that turn out. They've been choked out for 4 yrs now and should have been a true cup contender rather than 1st round fodder due to terrible depth goaltending etc

It's not about paying your good players its about paying them for how they rate league wide or you end up with top players on losers getting overpaid and blocking any way forward for the team.

Projecting cap increases into the percentage is a fools game and so is paying above 100k per point unless the player has some amazing defensive acumen and intangibles. Bo has some intangibles so there is wiggle room for more

Furthermore Bo has never been a top line talent and still isn't even with his hot start. Paying him 10% when by year 5 your gonna have decline is basically the fundamental flaw of all free agent signings. 2nd liners become btm 6 players and in a salary cap world that can be crushing having 3rd liners making above 5-6 million.

A top line C is top 25-28 in the league due to the amount of rebuilds in progress and the fact that 16 teams are playoff teams. A 4 yr sample is too long given injuries decline for stars and young players who are better that haven't played enough. Horvat is 47th since 20/21

Horvat is a solid #2 would love for him to stay but it has to make sense.

 

[Hansen]

The thing is that with the direction we’re heading theres no way Pettersson stays. I already think thats the way hes leaning

 

[bandwagonesque]

The thing is that with the direction we’re heading theres no way Pettersson stays. I already think thats the way hes leaning

I agree. That's why it's a better idea to try another direction right now and see what happens. A somewhat competitive core with no future won't be his best option, so let's see if we can generate something else in the next 2-3 years.

 

[Nucker101]

We’re moving on from the discussion but I will say I fully expect Horvat to get 8.5m minimum. My issue is that I’m not bought in on the small sample size of part of last season, his high shooting percentage, or that he has twice as many tip in goals as anyone else. It’s paying top dollar for a career season and while I think he’ll probably end up with some nice 70 point seasons, I don’t think he makes sense for the team at this point. Ditto for Miller.



I think he will but I have a sneaky suspicion that he’ll end up under it. Can’t quite pin down why.



So was Gaudreau and we barely heard a peep throughout the season. The longer it drags on, the less convinced I am. There were reports last season the Red Wings have made everyone, except Raymond and Seider, available.

Gaudreau was an American playing in Canada, this is a hometown kid, I would be surprised if a deal doesn't get done. Especially if you hear Yzerman speak during interviews, he always mentions how difficult it is to find quality players down at premium positions(C/D/G, basically non-wingers).

We'll see. If anything I bet Yzerman is more likely to try to sign Larkin and then make an offer for Horvat if he reaches free agency than he is to let Larkin walk(or traded) and then try to bring in Bo as a replacement.

 

[racerjoe]

I thought so. Couldn’t disagree more with this point rank = salary ideology.

Content to move on though. My thoughts are out there.

There is more to hockey, but contracts are still largely based on pts.

 

[4Twenty]

I argued this stuff with you regarding the Leafs when they signed Marner and how did that turn out. They've been choked out for 4 yrs now and should have been a true cup contender rather than 1st round fodder due to terrible depth goaltending etc

It's not about paying your good players its about paying them for how they rate league wide or you end up with top players on losers getting overpaid and blocking any way forward for the team.

Projecting cap increases into the percentage is a fools game and so is paying above 100k per point unless the player has some amazing defensive acumen and intangibles. Bo has some intangibles so there is wiggle room for more

Furthermore Bo has never been a top line talent and still isn't even with his hot start. Paying him 10% when by year 5 your gonna have decline is basically the fundamental flaw of all free agent signings. 2nd liners become btm 6 players and in a salary cap world that can be crushing having 3rd liners making above 5-6 million.

A top line C is top 25-28 in the league due to the amount of rebuilds in progress and the fact that 16 teams are playoff teams. A 4 yr sample is too long given injuries decline for stars and young players who are better that haven't played enough. Horvat is 47th since 20/21

Horvat is a solid #2 would love for him to stay but it has to make sense.

4 years is too long?

Toronto was the team most affected by the corona. They’ve been good every year.


Horvat is 39th in points by a C since 20/21, 34th if you include this season.

7th in goals.

No clue where you get 47th.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Yup production gets you paid. Especially goals. Easily a 10% cap player. Maybe it doesn’t work here but that’s the market rate.

He’s a captain. He plays top 15 C minutes per game.

Top face off guy.

Strong frame. Healthy career. He’s getting his money. Canucks fans ideals be dammed.

 

[sting101]

4 years is too long?

Toronto was the team most affected by the corona. They’ve been good every year.


Horvat is 39th in points by a C since 20/21, 34th if you include this season.

7th in goals.

No clue where you get 47th.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Yup production gets you paid. Especially goals. Easily a 10% cap player. Maybe it doesn’t work here but that’s the market rate.

He’s a captain. He plays top 15 C minutes per game.

Top face off guy.

Strong frame. Healthy career. He’s getting his money. Canucks fans ideals be dammed.

47th -50th depending on who you regard as C's full time ES scoring
33rd in goals

Currently 47 th top paid C makes 5.16 million
Currently 33rd top paid C makes 6.1 million

Again i love Bo and want him to sign and would be willing to overpay a little for the fact he's a faceoff guru and is a heavy player that has shown he can be a playoff beast but if he takes too much then whats the point as the only games he plays will be regular season.

 

[DonnyNucker]

Dreger:

-Canucks have specific needs; maybe it starts with cap space
-would like to add a young NHL centreman
-would also like a young NHL right-shot defenceman
-no timeline on Bo Horvat; if the right deal the trade can happen after the holiday roster freeze

Nothing we didn't already know.

What team doesn’t want to add a young center and a young RHD? Thanks Dreger !

 

[4Twenty]

47th -50th depending on who you regard as C's full time ES scoring
33rd in goals

Currently 47 th top paid C makes 5.16 million
Currently 33rd top paid C makes 6.1 million

Again i love Bo and want him to sign and would be willing to overpay a little for the fact he's a faceoff guru and is a heavy player that has shown he can be a playoff beast but if he takes too much then whats the point as the only games he plays will be regular season.

I find the dismissal of PP production very odd as I do the methodology of how you value players based on their ES point rankings at their position. Seems too simplistic and context limiting.

Centres are more valuable. Bo is going to get paid. My intention in this discussion is to discuss his market value. Not his value to the Canucks.

Bo is breaking out offensively at the same age JT Miller did.

Anyways. I’ve made enough posts about it today so I’m done.

 

[Peen]

Pettersson's extension eligible in 7 months

 

[lawrence]

"he will be a captain on most teams". Sutter on Luke Schenn.

assume Calgary is interested in Luke.