F Mackie Samoskevich - Chicago Steel, USHL (2021, 24th, FLA)

[Pavel Buchnevich]

If Samoskevitch has superior skating, hands and playmaking, what's the explanation for him being massively out-produced by Coronato on the same team over the last two years?

It sounds like Samoskevitch is not getting enough out of his tools, while Coronato is getting far more out of his comparatively limited skillset, which may indicate a significant difference in hockey IQ/decision-making.

I think there are a few things at play here.

1. Most people who have watched a lot of Coronato do not believe he can replicate the same type of production at higher levels due to his lack of dynamic skills, along with average, at best, size and skating.

2. None of that is to say Coronato won’t be a good player, which is why I don’t like these comparisons. They are different players with different skill sets who project differently. It shouldn’t be an interrogation of why one had a better statistical season or skillset than the other.

3. Samoskevich started the season really well, and then he got injured. He missed a significant amount of time. When he came back, he was playing his second best position at the junior level, winger. He fits the center ice position much better at lower levels, at least.

4. When he returned, he was no longer on PP1. I don’t think it’s a good strategy to have your best player, especially best offensive player, to not play PP1, but they obviously don’t need any one player to have success. What they were doing was working, so they didn’t change a successful strategy.

5. Thus, his totals went down a little when he returned due to usage. He also was probably the most unlucky player in the USHL this season with puck luck. There’s no publicly available analytics, but I would guess he probably has the biggest discrepancy in the league between expected points per game and actual points per game.

6. And further, junior hockey totals don’t really matter. It’s about how your game projects. He makes plays that can’t really be defended. Elite offense beats elite defense. Of all the players in the USHL, especially the 2021 draft eligibles, he probably has the most projectable offensive skillset in the league to the NHL.

7. It’s not as if his point totals are bad either. He’s over 1PPG in the regular season, and well over 1PPG in the playoffs. Does he have a Mitch Marner or Artemi Panarin level of hockey sense? Probably not. He could be more efficient, but neither do many pure scoring forwards in the NHL that have a lot of success. He doesn’t need to have an elite hockey sense to be really good. With his raw offensive skills, he could probably even score points with a mediocre hockey sense. Also, I would say his hockey sense is probably good. At worst, above average.

 

[Kase]

If Samoskevitch has superior skating, hands and playmaking, what's the explanation for him being massively out-produced by Coronato on the same team over the last two years?

It sounds like Samoskevitch is not getting enough out of his tools, while Coronato is getting far more out of his comparatively limited skillset, which may indicate a significant difference in hockey IQ/decision-making.

That and effort level. Imo Coronato doesn't have a single elite level asset, but pretty much everything outside of his height is above average and his effort + offensive instincts combination is very high end which equals to high end production, at least at this level.

Samoskevitch on the other hand is a bit like JL Foudy last year, a lot of high end tools, but somewhat questionable decision making and doesn't yet quite know how to get everything out of him.

Gap between the two hasn't been as big as the difference in production indicates tho, puck luck + opportunity probably skews things a bit in Coronato's favor.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

I don't understand why internet scouts and scouting agencies are so high on Fabian Lysell and then rank Samoskevich outside of the first round. Dobberprospects, for example, has Lysell at 3rd and Samoskevich at 45th.

I really like Lysell and think he's a slightly higher level of prospect, but why the major discrepancy? They play a similar style of game and share a lot of the same strengths and weaknesses. Both excel under the eye-test but the stats don't blow you away. Only thing I can think of is that Samo is a late birthday, but there's only a two month difference between them.

What gives?

 

[docbenton]

I don't understand why internet scouts and scouting agencies are so high on Fabian Lysell and then rank Samoskevich outside of the first round. Dobberprospects, for example, has Lysell at 3rd and Samoskevich at 45th.

I really like Lysell and think he's a slightly higher level of prospect, but why the major discrepancy? They play a similar style of game and share a lot of the same strengths and weaknesses. Both excel under the eye-test but the stats don't blow you away. Only thing I can think of is that Samo is a late birthday, but there's only a two month difference between them.

What gives?

I agree, Lysell and Samoskevich seem like the same player.

 

[Mersss]

I think there are a few things at play here.

1. Most people who have watched a lot of Coronato do not believe he can replicate the same type of production at higher levels due to his lack of dynamic skills, along with average, at best, size and skating.

2. None of that is to say Coronato won’t be a good player, which is why I don’t like these comparisons. They are different players with different skill sets who project differently. It shouldn’t be an interrogation of why one had a better statistical season or skillset than the other.

3. Samoskevich started the season really well, and then he got injured. He missed a significant amount of time. When he came back, he was playing his second best position at the junior level, winger. He fits the center ice position much better at lower levels, at least.

4. When he returned, he was no longer on PP1. I don’t think it’s a good strategy to have your best player, especially best offensive player, to not play PP1, but they obviously don’t need any one player to have success. What they were doing was working, so they didn’t change a successful strategy.

5. Thus, his totals went down a little when he returned due to usage. He also was probably the most unlucky player in the USHL this season with puck luck. There’s no publicly available analytics, but I would guess he probably has the biggest discrepancy in the league between expected points per game and actual points per game.

6. And further, junior hockey totals don’t really matter. It’s about how your game projects. He makes plays that can’t really be defended. Elite offense beats elite defense. Of all the players in the USHL, especially the 2021 draft eligibles, he probably has the most projectable offensive skillset in the league to the NHL.

7. It’s not as if his point totals are bad either. He’s over 1PPG in the regular season, and well over 1PPG in the playoffs. Does he have a Mitch Marner or Artemi Panarin level of hockey sense? Probably not. He could be more efficient, but neither do many pure scoring forwards in the NHL that have a lot of success. He doesn’t need to have an elite hockey sense to be really good. With his raw offensive skills, he could probably even score points with a mediocre hockey sense. Also, I would say his hockey sense is probably good. At worst, above average.

Sean Farrell was still on the 1st PP, and he was by far the ebst offensive talent on that team, older, but still the best offensive playr

 

[montreal]

Sean Farrell was still on the 1st PP, and he was by far the ebst offensive talent on that team, older, but still the best offensive playr

not by far and it's debatable if he was the best as it's goal scorer vs playmaker. When you take the regular season plus playoffs, Coronato has 55 goals, that's insanely good. He's got 95 pts in 57 games, Farrell has 30 goals and 106 pts in 59 games.

So Farrell has more points but it's hard to overlook 55 goals in 57 games.

Farrell - 1.8 ppg
Coronato - 1.67 ppp

So picking Farrell makes a lot of sense, but the best offense talent by far I don't agree (granted I saw a bunch of their games but mostly early in the season) Coronato went on a tear and has continued it in the playoffs as he leads the USHL in goals and points.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Sean Farrell was still on the 1st PP, and he was by far the ebst offensive talent on that team, older, but still the best offensive playr

I disagree. Samoskevich and Farrell actually played together on the same line early in the season. I thought Samoskevich drove the line. Between Farrell’s age, skill, and hockey sense he dominated the league this season, so that’s not to take anything away from him.

 

[Vide]

Is Samoskevich a pure skill guy, i.e. a top6 or bust type of player? Or does his game have more dimensions than that?

Is there a half-decent player comparable at the NHL level?

 

[docbenton]

Is Samoskevich a pure skill guy, i.e. a top6 or bust type of player? Or does his game have more dimensions than that?

Is there a half-decent player comparable at the NHL level?

Both him and Lysell remind me a lot of Travis Konecny

 

[Vide]

Both him and Lysell remind me a lot of Travis Konecny

So he plays a bit feisty?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

He’s not going to be playing on an Islanders fourth line. His defense is weakest part of his game. He killed penalties last season and did a good job, but he does take a lot of risks with the puck in dangerous areas of the ice. He’s good on face offs though, which is part of why he could stick at center. While I wouldn’t consider him soft or physically weak, his game is based on pure offensive skill. I guess that makes him boom or bust, but I don’t know that his downside is much lower than a third line scoring forward, so I’m not sure I’d say he’s boom or bust. He’ll play a long time in the NHL based on his ability to score. That could be as a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd liner. If the rest of his game develops, that’s an added bonus.

 

[LastWordArmy]

The Chicago Steel had an outstanding season. Led by Sean Farrell, Matthew Coronato, Josh Doan, Erik Middendorf, and Ryan Ufko, the Steel had a very talented roster. They dominated the USHL and won the Clark Cup. One prospect who flew under the radar on the squad was Mackie Samoskevich (sometimes listed as Matthew Samoskevich). Playing mainly a middle-six role, and serving as an alternate captain, Samoskevich put up 13 goals and 24 assists for 37 points in 36 regular-season games. He also added one goal and nine assists for 10 points in the eight playoff games during the Steel’s run to the Championship.

Samoskevich played prep school hockey at the famous Shattuck-St. Mary’s program. He was drafted in the fourth round, 63rd overall, in the 2018 USHL Futures Draft. However, Samoskevich didn’t see significant USHL playing time until 2019. In 2019-20 Samoskevich scored 13 goals and 34 points in 41 games with the Steel. He also scored one goal in four games for Team USA at the Hlinka-Gretzky Cup. Samoskevich committed to join the University of Michigan for the 2021-22 season. His sister, Melissa Samoskevich, is a top young player in the NWHL.

2021 NHL Draft #35: Mackie Samoskevich Scouting Report

 

[rocketdan9]

This is my pick to come from off the radar to be a very high first round pick in 2021. Samoskevich is a highly skilled forward. The way he plays the game is similar to players such as Panarin, Kane, Marner, Raymond. He has unbelievable ability to hold onto the puck in traffic for an extra few seconds with fakes, cuts and excellent hands and edge work. But he also has very good skating acceleration, and high end passing and shooting.

He played a smaller role this year on one of the best teams in USHL history, so his counting stats don’t reflect how good he is offensively. He probably is the most offensively skilled player on a team with guys such as Farrell, Brisson, Colangelo, Fontaine, Power, Coronato. I’ll list him as a forward for now. I’ve seen him play winger or center, but he plays the type of game that often ends up at winger. He gives good two way effort though, skates very well for a 5’10 forward and doesn’t need to put on the weight that some of these types of players have needed to, so it’s not impossible he could play center, but I think he’s most likely a LW.

He’s yet another of the Chicago Steel players that’ll play next year at Michigan. Interestingly, he also has two sisters, one a twin, who are very good hockey players. His older sister is already on the US National Team, and the twin played for the 18’s last year. Another interesting fact is that he comes from the town where the infamous Sandy Hook shooting occurred, but that’s not in any way related to hockey.

Matthew Samoskevich at eliteprospects.com

What is a good comparable?

He looks really good in tight. Like walking a tightrope ability. What a shot as well

The point totals is a little underwhelming considering his skills.

I have seen shift by shift clip on youtube.
Wish he would forecheck/backcheck a little more desparately.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

What is a good comparable?

He looks really good in tight. Like walking a tightrope ability. What a shot as well

The point totals is a little underwhelming considering his skills.

I have seen shift by shift clip on youtube.
Wish he would forecheck/backcheck a little more desparately.

I’ve said before that he will probably have a similar career to William Nylander. And this is not one of these comparisons where I believe that’s a ceiling. I believe that’s the likely projection. The ceiling is higher than Nylander.

His point totals aren’t that underwhelming, considering context. He wasn’t given his PP1 spot back when he returned because the team played well while he was injured. Also, he was being played at wing when he returned after a lot of earlier success in the season at center. He could’ve scored slightly more, but he was over 1PPG.

 

[Frk It]

I’ve said before that he will probably have a similar career to William Nylander. And this is not one of these comparisons where I believe that’s a ceiling. I believe that’s the likely projection. The ceiling is higher than Nylander.

His point totals aren’t that underwhelming, considering context. He wasn’t given his PP1 spot back when he returned because the team played well while he was injured. Also, he was being played at wing when he returned after a lot of earlier success in the season at center. He could’ve scored slightly more, but he was over 1PPG.

How high do you have him ranked?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

How high do you have him ranked?

Very high. He’ll be top 10, maybe even top 5. He’s one of the most talented players in this draft. I can’t believe people have him outside the top 20.

 

[rocketdan9]

Very high. He’ll be top 10, maybe even top 5. He’s one of the most talented players in this draft. I can’t believe people have him outside the top 20.

Point total and size.... if I had to guess

You did list the reason for so so point totals considering skills... but

Scouts will nitpick

 

[untouchable21]

I've seen Samoskevich ranked pretty consistently outside of the first round, and I don't think I've seen him ranked higher than #19 overall (eliteprospects). That is pretty insane to me. Like I consistently see players with not great upside ranked above Samoskevich and I really just don't get the reasoning.

This kid is going to walk into a top 6 alongside Beniers, K. Johnson, Bordeleau, and Brisson, and put up stupid points next year. So much talent here.

Samoskevich is going to fall into the second round, improve his first step and add strength, and leave a dozen + teams wondering why they let him slip past.

The JETS have a strong scouting presence in the USHL. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them select him with their 1st

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Someone was going to eventually write the inevitable Sandy Hook story surrounding Samoskevich, and now Scott Wheeler has. It's a well written story about a difficult subject. Read it if you like. I don't want to take the thread down that direction, so I won't include any quotes from that part of it.

Here are some quotes about his hockey though.

Owen Power, Mackie’s teammate in Chicago and soon at Michigan and the presumptive No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft, calls him the most talented player he’s ever shared the ice with.

Sheahan laughs about how often Mackie appeared in the videos he showed the Steel this season, both offensively and defensively, calling him a complete player. He and Hardy also said they saw Mackie do things every night for two years that nobody else could. Mackie, Sheahan insists, is “as elite as it gets” as a skater and puck handler.
“I think he was the most skilled player in the USHL,” Sheahan says.

“Me and Maddy go to the rink and work but we like the social aspect of it,” Melissa says. “The quietness of him is because he’s a 24-hour athlete. And it has paid off for him and that’s solely because of him. He’s out on our outdoor rink for hours just stickhandling by himself. Watching his work ethic is amazing. I wish I had it.”

From Sandy Hook to the NHL Draft, one prospect's enduring connection

 

[rocketdan9]

Someone was going to eventually write the inevitable Sandy Hook story surrounding Samoskevich, and now Scott Wheeler has. It's a well written story about a difficult subject. Read it if you like. I don't want to take the thread down that direction, so I won't include any quotes from that part of it.

Here are some quotes about his hockey though.







From Sandy Hook to the NHL Draft, one prospect's enduring connection

I wouldnt mind if Bruins drafted him. Bruins need to add skill vs three zone vanilla big sized big

 

[MMC]

Welcome to Florida

 

[Realgud]

3 years in a row with steals in the 1st round for the Panthers imo.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Steal of the draft. A joke this guy made it to 24.

 

[William H Bonney]

Excellent value. I'd like to see him improve his finishing ability a bit - not just scoring goals per se but also knowing when to settle for the simpler option - but he's extremely skilled.

 

[Panteras]

High praise for him in this page. Hopefully he turns out a good player for us!