F Juraj Slafkovsky - TPS, Finland U20 (2022 Draft)

[Artorius Horus T]

If he played for the Kingston Frontenacs this year, what do you think his point totals would have been?

100+

 

[Namejs]

Fluke today with a nice snipe against powerhouse Switzerland?

Not sure why its so hard for so many people just to accept that he is a future NHL star.

Did you even read what I wrote? He generates shots/chances which should result in 1 goal per 4 games on average.

He has now 1 goal in 4 games, exactly as predicted.

7 goals in 7 games is a massive fluke.

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

7 goals in 7 games is a massive fluke.

0 assists in 7 games is also a massive fluke. No one would complain if he had scored 3 goals and 4 assists in 7 games.

 

[ijuka]

0 assists in 7 games is also a massive fluke. No one would complain if he had scored 3 goals and 4 assists in 7 games.

On his team, only 1 player out of 22 had 4 or more assists. Only 2 had more than 2 assists. So should that be the default assumption, anyway?

Slafkovsky shot at 30% in the Olympics.

In Liiga playoffs, Slafkovsky shot at 7.4%.
In Liiga regular season, Slafkovsky shot at 10.4%.

With those shooting %s, the closest estimation for goals scored off his amount of shots in the olympics is 2 goals, rather than 7. This would be with 8.7%.

Would 2 goals and 2 assists or 2 goals and 1 assist be bad? No, not exactly. But the noise would be quite different from how it is with 7 goals scored at 30%.

 

[Namejs]

0 assists in 7 games is also a massive fluke. No one would complain if he had scored 3 goals and 4 assists in 7 games.

There is nothing to complain about.

His expected goals scored is nowhere near 3 per 7 games. It's around 1.75. Assists tend to be in the range of 1-1.50x goals. So 1.75+2.63. Around 4.5 expected points per 7 games, which includes secondary assists.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

If this is how you analyze, it's starting with a narrative and then building your analysis to fit the narrative. To be objective, you start with a blank slate and then gauge the player's attributes by what they're doing.

Slafkovsky has these "brain cramps" pretty often. Forcing plays, tunnel vision, general sloppiness. In TPS he struggled greatly with the fundamentals.

I can’t overstate how hilarious this is coming from Kakko superfan #1 and someone that shit on Jack Hughes like it was your full time job.

 

[kudla]

I can’t overstate how hilarious this is coming from Kakko superfan #1 and someone that shit on Jack Hughes like it was your full time job.

Yeah, no offense, but that guy just tries to put Slaf down ever since we learned that Slaf is probably gonna be drafted before Kemell

Slaf has had some brain farts, that's for sure but calling it a tunnel vision? No comment on that really, lmao

 

[tmlmatus]

yes, there are some bad actors in here, but also there are way too many people that praise Slaf based on his Olympic performance which was obviously out of the norm for Slafkovsky.

Truth be told, I doubt most scouts have him rated 2nd overall because of his olympics/liiga production and more based on his actual in game performance. He does a lot of things right besides putting up points.

 

[Bankers Box]

Yeah, no offense, but that guy just tries to put Slaf down ever since we learned that Slaf is probably gonna be drafted before Kemell

Slaf has had some brain farts, that's for sure but calling it a tunnel vision? No comment on that really, lmao

This has been a yearly occurrence with some Finnish fans and it is one of the most annoying things on these boards.

Every year you find some Finns who write long, boring, attacks on any player they feel shouldn't go ahead of their local player.

Every year their insane analysis ends up being proven wrong and instead of stopping and considering if maybe their emotions are blinding them to reality, they just double down.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day but I'd wager that if a contingent of Finns are attacking a player, than there is a good chance that the player will end up being better than the Finn.

 

[Eye of Ra]

On his team, only 1 player out of 22 had 4 or more assists. Only 2 had more than 2 assists. So should that be the default assumption, anyway?

Slafkovsky shot at 30% in the Olympics.

In Liiga playoffs, Slafkovsky shot at 7.4%.
In Liiga regular season, Slafkovsky shot at 10.4%.

With those shooting %s, the closest estimation for goals scored off his amount of shots in the olympics is 2 goals, rather than 7. This would be with 8.7%.

Would 2 goals and 2 assists or 2 goals and 1 assist be bad? No, not exactly. But the noise would be quite different from how it is with 7 goals scored at 30%.

 

[bsu]

This has been a yearly occurrence with some Finnish fans and it is one of the most annoying things on these boards.

Every year you find some Finns who write long, boring, attacks on any player they feel shouldn't go ahead of their local player.

Every year their insane analysis ends up being proven wrong and instead of stopping and considering if maybe their emotions are blinding them to reality, they just double down.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day but I'd wager that if a contingent of Finns are attacking a player, than there is a good chance that the player will end up being better than the Finn.

Remember the Matthews vs Laine predraft threads

 

[ijuka]

Yeah, no offense, but that guy just tries to put Slaf down ever since we learned that Slaf is probably gonna be drafted before Kemell

Slaf has had some brain farts, that's for sure but calling it a tunnel vision? No comment on that really, lmao

What, this again?

I've been watching Slafkovsky with TPS. Maybe you weren't aware but that sort of is my Finnish Liiga team that I sort of follow. I've watched him since B juniors. 19-20. Never been impressed. When his initial draft rankings were first teased - 2 years ago - I was surprised he was projected to go nearly this high.

Kemell? Sure, I've been aware of him for a long time, but I've actually not been that impressed by him, and have downplayed him the entire time as I've never liked his eye test a whole lot - until the start of this season. He lead Liiga in scoring after all, at the age of 17, while playing with fourth liners. That just cannot be ignored. But lately, if you've been reading, I've actually criticized Kemell a ton, most recently his performance at the u-18s, where I thought he displayed very low hockey IQ. Even against the public opinion, mind. Even after he scored the hat trick against Canada.

Furthermore, I've always preferred Brad Lambert over Kemell, until this season. And even now, only Kemell's play early in the season.

And have I actually been pushing a narrative that Kemell should be picked before Slafkovsky? You'd find that the answer is no. Actually, I have had little input on what Slafkovsky's actual ranking should be. I just think that the player assessment is pretty illogical and even unfair, where his mistakes get brushed aside and successes get generalized to be the norm.



Of course, it's easier to ad hominem than making proper arguments.

Remember the Matthews vs Laine predraft threads

Yeah, that was only 6 years ago. And I still think that Laine's concussion vs McCabe ruined him as a player. I can't predict pre-draft that Laine gets concussed by McCabe. After that, I have not liked his play. He started playing timid and became one-dimensional. I watched every single game he played until then, but after that concussion I lost interest, he became boring.

Nevertheless, at least I'm brave enough to come out with my own opinions rather than deferring.

 

[Jukurit]

I saw most of Slafkovsky's games in Liiga playoffs and he was mostly invisible. Sometimes had very nice moments. He could end up becoming very good player but right now too inconsistent.

 

[MakoSlade]

yes, there are some bad actors in here, but also there are way too many people that praise Slaf based on his Olympic performance which was obviously out of the norm for Slafkovsky.

Truth be told, I doubt most scouts have him rated 2nd overall because of his olympics/liiga production and more based on his actual in game performance. He does a lot of things right besides putting up points.

For sure. It would make no sense to make a decision based on one tournament. Slaf was ranked #5 in MacKenzie's January ranking I believe. To move up three spots in a very open top ten is not that big a jump. I imagine the Olympics was a big boost but still remains a fraction of why Slaf is highly regarded.

As a Devils fan I am very vested in this, so I hope the scouts are paying close attention to his entire body of work, good and bad.

 

[devilsfan35]

Do we think he will be better than Byfield? Personally I think so because of his skating. Byfield is really slow for a big guy

 

[Puckclektr]

Do we think he will be better than Byfield? Personally I think so because of his skating. Byfield is really slow for a big guy

Byfield slow? You know his speed is arguably his biggest asset right?

 

[bsu]

Do we think he will be better than Byfield? Personally I think so because of his skating. Byfield is really slow for a big guy

Wut

 

[Rusty7550]

Do we think he will be better than Byfield? Personally I think so because of his skating. Byfield is really slow for a big guy

Byfield is actually a great skater but his hockey IQ is questionable. But hes only 19 so give him a time.

 

[Eye of Ra]

There is nothing to complain about.

His expected goals scored is nowhere near 3 per 7 games. It's around 1.75. Assists tend to be in the range of 1-1.50x goals. So 1.75+2.63. Around 4.5 expected points per 7 games, which includes secondary assists.

He now has 5 points in 5 games. PPG. He was also PPG in OG. How is possible he has fluke for 2 tournaments in row?

 

[peto10]

 

[stastny12]

It´s just too good to be true having this fella in the Slovak team

 

[Jerzey Devil]

Do these refs have camcorders on their helmets or something? Someone should tell them technology has advanced since the 90’s.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Do we think he will be better than Byfield? Personally I think so because of his skating. Byfield is really slow for a big guy

Byfield is definitely the better prospect, he's actually a better skater than Slafkovsky. Byfield would have gone 1st in this draft very easily

 

[SquidNasty]

Tired of hearing Wright is the consensus #1 and “a future Patrice Bergeron”.

I’m willing to bet one of my kidneys this kid ends up being the best player from this class

 

[Bounces R Way]

Still needs a lot of polish in my eyes(as is true for the vast majority of 18 year olds) but if you pick a forward top 3 in the draft you should be getting an offensive catalyst. Slafkovsky is definitely looking like he can provide that. Puck protection, hands, size, and speed is a great combo for a NHL forward.