Prospect Info: F Isak Rosen (14th Overall, 2021), Assigned to Rochester 12/10

[jmelm]

It really does seem like everything that could've gone wrong for him this year, did. The D+1 season is so important in my opinion, so a shame that he missed out on a lot of it. Here's to hoping he can rebound in a big way.

At least he was still playing, even if he missed some time or wasn't on the ideal team. So still much better than guys who tear and ACL and miss an entire season -- or all of the OHL guys who missed an entire year.

Basically what I'm saying while it wasn't ideal, it also wasn't THAT bad and certainly not something that's unrecoverable.

I just listened to yesterday's DFO Rundown Podcast (Frank Seravalli & Jason Gregor). They had a great, thorough interview with Bill Armstrong, GM of the Coyotes and the head scout & a primarary architect behind one of the best teams in the NHL, STL Blues. It's a great listen, for anyone interested.

GM BA was talking about how so often when a young player pops or has a major breakthrough to take his game to that next level to really hit their potential, it comes after facing some kind of adversity. He used the example of injury, parents getting a divorce, other family/personal issues, and of course team adversity. Of course, not all players rise up in the face of that adversity, but for those who do, it seems to leave them even better off than they were before and shows how they can deal with the inevitable adversity they'll face if they make it as a pro.

So let's hope that Rosen will take this sub-par and disappointing season and channel it into determination to become the best player he can be. And lucky for us, we'll get our first glimpse of this soon at the upcoming WJC's later this summer.

 

[truthbluth]

Don’t know what this was. Deleted.

 

[Reddawg]

Sure, but compared to who?
How many mid-1st forwards spend their D+1 year in the SHL?

The sample size is minuscule. It’s like comparing Alex Nylander to all the other D+1 AHL seasons by top 10 picks in the past 10 years.

Rosen’s so hard to quantify because he’s an outlier.

I don’t know that you want to invoke Alex Nylander to improve the strength of your argument my dude

 

[jmelm]

I don’t know that you want to invoke Alex Nylander to improve the strength of your argument my dude

I don't know why anyone would want to invoke Alex Nylander at all. It's painful and I still have nightmares about it sometimes lol. Especially the image and sound of Tim Murray so cockily announcing that pick like he was some kind of genius. Ugh.

 

[Reddawg]

I don't know why anyone would want to invoke Alex Nylander at all. It's painful and I still have nightmares about it sometimes lol. Especially the image and sound of Tim Murray so cockily announcing that pick like he was some kind of genius. Ugh.

I was physically present in the park in Buffalo for the draft party that year and cheered my head off for that pick because AN was exactly who I wanted us to take. Murray wasn’t the only one who was way off base about that kid, he had the talent but absolutely none of the heart, I watched a lot of coasty games from him in Rochester after we took him.

 

[jmelm]

I was physically present in the park in Buffalo for the draft party that year and cheered my head off for that pick because AN was exactly who I wanted us to take. Murray wasn’t the only one who was way off base about that kid, he had the talent but absolutely none of the heart, I watched a lot of coasty games from him in Rochester after we took him.

Sure, but it’s not your job nor mine nor any of the fans to be correct about drafting. That’s what Murray was for and failed, so don’t put yourself in his (sinking) boat.

 

[buffalowing88]

“Historically bad” is an accurate description of his production, which I’ve explained above. If you’d like to argue this point, I encourage you to present a examples of worse D+1 seasons for top 15 drafted forwards.

I did NOT say Rosen was a bust. And I have acknowledged that there are factors that could explain his poor production.

That he had a very poor statistical season is not arguable. You can have one of three conclusions about it.

It means nothing
It means something
It means everything


To me, it means something. Cause for concern at least. Feel free to argue that it means nothing, I just disagree.

I wanna be your best friend just for taking this stance. I remember on this forum and others with the years of Zagrapan. "He'll be fine, just give it time"..."He's from Europe, they have a different path to the NHL, it'll happen".

Dawg, it never happened. With Euro prospects I am 1000000 percent on the boat of either they hit or they miss pretty quick. It's a different system, it's a different set of coaching, everything.

Rosen has checked off all the boxes for me to be nervous and there have been teams who wasted high picks like that who came to regret it for years after. If we end up with a hole in net next year and he's still playing like shit, I would say that Adams needs to be docked severely.

All this time we bitched about Botterill and give Adams credit but the basis for doing so is getting shakier.

 

[Zman5778]

When pick 14 came up and Wallstedt and Cossa were still on the board, I was 10000% certain that we were taking one of them........and I was praying it would be Wallstedt.

I was quite disappointed that we took Rosen. However, I do not hold that against Rosen himself. Of course I want him to work out.

Am I worried about him? Wellllll yeah. After a TOUGH season, it's hard not to be worried. And I'd bet that MOST Sabres fans are at least a little worried about him.

Am I writing him off?? Hell no. He was never a guy that was going come in and play in 2 years. He's always been a longer term guy. BUT......if this guy progresses the way he could........he might be on an ELC at the perfect time for us.

We'll see.

 

[nickdawg95]

Let the kid develop

 

[Satanphonehome]

I don’t know that you want to invoke Alex Nylander to improve the strength of your argument my dude

If you’re saying this, I don’t know that my argument is what you think it is.

 

[Gimli]

If Isak Rosen succeeds, the Sabres will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself

 

[jmelm]

When pick 14 came up and Wallstedt and Cossa were still on the board, I was 10000% certain that we were taking one of them........and I was praying it would be Wallstedt.

I was quite disappointed that we took Rosen. However, I do not hold that against Rosen himself. Of course I want him to work out.

Am I worried about him? Wellllll yeah. After a TOUGH season, it's hard not to be worried. And I'd bet that MOST Sabres fans are at least a little worried about him.

Am I writing him off?? Hell no. He was never a guy that was going come in and play in 2 years. He's always been a longer term guy. BUT......if this guy progresses the way he could........he might be on an ELC at the perfect time for us.

We'll see.

This is the kind of measured, reasonable and rational response that's fair for people to have. Not all doom and gloom like it's a foregone conclusion Rosen is a bust or that it's an utter catastrophe.....unlike some other posts in this thread.

Let the kid develop

I like this one, too!

 

[Dirty Dog]

“Historically bad” is an accurate description of his production, which I’ve explained above. If you’d like to argue this point, I encourage you to present a examples of worse D+1 seasons for top 15 drafted forwards.

I did NOT say Rosen was a bust. And I have acknowledged that there are factors that could explain his poor production.

That he had a very poor statistical season is not arguable. You can have one of three conclusions about it.

It means nothing
It means something
It means everything


To me, it means something. Cause for concern at least. Feel free to argue that it means nothing, I just disagree.

Wait. Don’t most prospects have wayyyy better stats their draft year too than him? If so, then we’re clearly dealing with a different type of player and the model seems inapplicable.

If Isak Rosen succeeds, the Sabres will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself

No

 

[Faceboner]

His production sucks yeah, but when we drafted him I thought he he would be a guy who needs 5 years has an incredible skill set just needs more mass his hands, vision, shot and skating are top notch very boom or bust and should have an idea what he will be after his d+3 season potential offensive dynamic force we only really have one of those guys in the system in quinn maybe two if you count jjp as a future offensive stud which at this point looks like it

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Sort of off-topic, but how much of a surprise has Wyatt Johnston been?

 

[jmelm]

Sort of off-topic, but how much of a surprise has Wyatt Johnston been?

HUUUUUGE.

In a re-draft, he'd challenge Beniers for the top forward selected. Would 100% be in the top 5 or 6 players at worst.

p.s. @Sabresfansince1980 Since you were asking about Johnston, I'll take the opportunity to say keep your eye on Logan Stankoven as well. He's a potential home-run pick for them as well in last year's draft in the second round, and one pick after (they had back to back 2nd rounders) they took Grushnikov, who has the real potential to be a Mattias Samuelsson type. Add that to Antonio Stranges who they took in the 4th round the year prior, and DAL may have really killed it over the last couple of years....in case you give a s**t about Dallas lol.

 

[RefsIdeas]

Wait. Don’t most prospects have wayyyy better stats their draft year too than him? If so, then we’re clearly dealing with a different type of player and the model seems inapplicable.



No

Pretty sure the second guy was referencing this:

There’s almost no reason to believe Josh Allen will work. Almost.

If this works, then stats really are for losers, I guess.

www.sbnation.com

 

[jc17]

Wait. Don’t most prospects have wayyyy better stats their draft year too than him? If so, then we’re clearly dealing with a different type of player and the model seems inapplicable.

I'd say most people unhappy with the d+1 stats, think the poor draft year stats add to the issue, not explain it. Still, that's an interesting way to look at it, that I hadn't considered.

I know some people dont like looking at old numbers, but I tried to take a look to see if we could get some objective info.

Back to the 2007-2017 sample size, the following are top 20 picks with low NHLe in their draft year, with Rosen inserted. 10 is a high estimate for d+1, I'm not sure the actual number.

All first rounders listed here: EtherCalc - Share the URL to your friends and edit together!

At the end of the day it looks like a mixed bag. Still not a great group of peers, but there are success stories in the eye-test over stats sides. Most low scorers improved, but a big d+1 year wasn't required for success.

My takeaway from this is that a player with poor counting stats can be successful after a few years of development. But each of the teams/fans of the picks above probably thought that their guy was a late bloomer that just needed to develop. Some did, more did not.

As I mentioned before, and others have too, I would prefer to have guys that have shown better numbers, because I think it matters, but would not say Rosen is destined to fail. However, if history is any indication, this post will be framed as me calling Rosen a bust.

 

[truthbluth]

I'd say most people unhappy with the d+1 stats, think the poor draft year stats add to the issue, not explain it. Still, that's an interesting way to look at it, that I hadn't considered.

I know some people dont like looking at old numbers, but I tried to take a look to see if we could get some objective info.

Back to the 2007-2017 sample size, the following are top 20 picks with low NHLe in their draft year, with Rosen inserted. 10 is a high estimate for d+1, I'm not sure the actual number.

View attachment 547506

All first rounders listed here: EtherCalc - Share the URL to your friends and edit together!

At the end of the day it looks like a mixed bag. Still not a great group of peers, but there are success stories in the eye-test over stats sides. Most low scorers improved, but a big d+1 year wasn't required for success.

My takeaway from this is that a player with poor counting stats can be successful after a few years of development. But each of the teams/fans of the picks above probably thought that their guy was a late bloomer that just needed to develop. Some did, more did not.

As I mentioned before, and others have too, I would prefer to have guys that have shown better numbers, because I think it matters, but would not say Rosen is destined to fail. However, if history is any indication, this post will be framed as me calling Rosen a bust.

7. His NHLe this year was 7.

 

[jc17]

7. His NHLe this year was 7.

Is that just based on the SHL numbers though? Topdownhockey is the one I usually use which I think incorporates the tournaments and any games at lower leagues, even if the small number only results in a slight weighted shift.

The injury seems like the real wildcard. Even though there are a couple guys that had good NHL careers with these kinds of numbers, I wouldn't be thrilled hoping for it. But if the injury really was hampering production, I can see why some don't want to put a ton of stock in the number

 

[truthbluth]

Is that just based on the SHL numbers though? Topdownhockey is the one I usually use which I think incorporates the tournaments and any games at lower leagues, even if the small number only results in a slight weighted shift.

The injury seems like the real wildcard. Even though there are a couple guys that had good NHL careers with these kinds of numbers, I wouldn't be thrilled hoping for it. But if the injury really was hampering production, I can see why some don't want to put a ton of stock in the number

It’s just SHL numbers, so I could see some movement, but he didn’t exactly tear it up in lower leagues and tournaments, so I‘m not sure it’d come up from 7.

Yeah, I don’t know what it means that his stats were so bad. If he goes a 3rd consecutive season without a significant increase in production, I’d say it means he’s not going to make it, but at the moment, I think it just means he’s still a question mark.

 

[jc17]

It’s just SHL numbers, so I could see some movement, but he didn’t exactly tear it up in lower leagues and tournaments, so I‘m not sure it’d come up from 7.

Yeah, I don’t know what it means that his stats were so bad. If he goes a 3rd consecutive season without a significant increase in production, I’d say it means he’s not going to make it, but at the moment, I think it just means he’s still a question mark.

Interestingly it looks like most guys with bad NHLe in dy and d+1 that eventually "made it" did not have huge jumps the next year, which would speak to @Dirty Dog 's point.

 

[Satanphonehome]

It’s just SHL numbers, so I could see some movement, but he didn’t exactly tear it up in lower leagues and tournaments, so I‘m not sure it’d come up from 7.

Yeah, I don’t know what it means that his stats were so bad. If he goes a 3rd consecutive season without a significant increase in production, I’d say it means he’s not going to make it, but at the moment, I think it just means he’s still a question mark.

To me it pretty clearly means that his coach (probably correctly) believed he wasn’t ready to play at that level.

That’s not insignificant; it means he’s almost certainly behind where guys like Raymond and Holtz were at the same stage.

But it’s also not ”historically bad” significant either, since plenty of players who were not good or developed enough to play regularly in a top men’s league at 18 still went on to enjoy NHL careers.

As you say, it bears watching and creates pressure to show progress next year.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Interestingly it looks like most guys with bad NHLe in dy and d+1 that eventually "made it" did not have huge jumps the next year, which would speak to @Dirty Dog 's point.

It’s a bizarre point

But this seems like an abnormal prospect as you’ve pointed out. I have watched him play 0 seconds, so I don’t know how to feel

 

[elchud]

Anybody know his ATOI or deployment this season?