F Chaz Lucius - USNTDP, USHL (2021, 18th, WPG)

[Pavel Buchnevich]

High IQ, good edgework, 200-foot game, great on faceoffs. How do you doubt he can stay at center?

Skating/playmaking. The same questions as someone like Pinto, and he’s sticking there for now. It can absolutely be done. Lucius has a chance to be an NHL center, but my own opinion and what I read is that it’s not set that he’ll be a center at the NHL level. I think it’s likely he’ll end up as a winger.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

NHL draft-eligible Chaz Lucius is more than his goal scoring

Solid read on Chaz's recovery and off-ice mentality.

Edit: it is from the Athletic so you might get paywalled unfortunately.

 

[Hollel]

Lucius eager for 2021 NHL Draft after recovery from knee surgery

Interesting look at the specifics of his injury & recovery. Seems like it was a nagging thing for a few seasons. I know he has some warts and a really limited sample size but I still am surprised he doesn’t generate more hype from fanbases picking around that 10ish range. Even more impressive that he came back from that recovery and was at a goal per game average

 

[Zaddy]

Just watched two shift-by-shift's on this guy and I am very underwhelmed. What do people see in this player beyond his shot? I see a player who is a poor skater, doesn't have a great motor, puck skills and playmaking is very poor (the play dies on his stick a lot)...what is there to like? I know this is a weak draft but even so I don't see any argument as to why you'd pick this kid in the top10 or thereabout. If you're a team looking for a goalscorer I think you're much better off selecting Sillinger or Coronato.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

High IQ, good edgework, 200-foot game, great on faceoffs. How do you doubt he can stay at center?

I try not to trash prospects and approach my personal analysis of them pretty even-keel but Lucius makes it very difficult for me.

You have a strange definition of "200 foot game". Unless by 200 foot game you mean, he skates from the center redline to beyond the offensive goal line, then back to the center redline, because that's about 200 feet of skating.

Lucius is the definition of a one-way forward, and his skating, though it's much improved, needs a ton of work to reach NHL average. Anyone who says he's good defensively or is a good skater needs to get their eyes checked.

The NHL player he reminds me the most of is Mike f***ing Comrie. Great hands, very intelligent offensively, but dogs it on the backcheck and is an average skater on his best day. I think anyone that picks him to be a top 6 center is off base with this kid, and anyone picking him higher than #25 is going to have some buyers remorse.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Just watched two shift-by-shift's on this guy and I am very underwhelmed. What do people see in this player beyond his shot? I see a player who is a poor skater, doesn't have a great motor, puck skills and playmaking is very poor (the play dies on his stick a lot)...what is there to like? I know this is a weak draft but even so I don't see any argument as to why you'd pick this kid in the top10 or thereabout. If you're a team looking for a goalscorer I think you're much better off selecting Sillinger or Coronato.

It's not that weak a draft, in my opinion. I think overall it's comparable to 2018 minus Dahlin and Svechnikov as the clear #1/#2 picks.

I think with Lucius it's a lot of pre-draft hype. Some guys that were projected as high picks as far back as 2019 and 2020 remain in contention for high picks despite underwhelming performances.

For example, I don't see how Raty can still be talked about by some as a potential top 10-15 pick despite an atrocious draft year and an underwhelming D-1. Lucius is another one of those guys that some hockey sites still mention in the same or similar ranges as he was in pre-draft. I wonder if it's just fear of dropping them too far and saying "we were wrong" ?

 

[Zaddy]

It's not that weak a draft, in my opinion. I think overall it's comparable to 2018 minus Dahlin and Svechnikov as the clear #1/#2 picks.

I think with Lucius it's a lot of pre-draft hype. Some guys that were projected as high picks as far back as 2019 and 2020 remain in contention for high picks despite underwhelming performances.

For example, I don't see how Raty can still be talked about by some as a potential top 10-15 pick despite an atrocious draft year and an underwhelming D-1. Lucius is another one of those guys that some hockey sites still mention in the same or similar ranges as he was in pre-draft. I wonder if it's just fear of dropping them too far and saying "we were wrong" ?

I think it's really weak on top end talent. Depth is always difficult to gauge. I have Beniers #4 in my rankings atm and I'm pretty sure he wouldn't have made my top10 last year.

Agree with the rest.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I think it's really weak on top end talent. Depth is always difficult to gauge. I have Beniers #4 in my rankings atm and I'm pretty sure he wouldn't have made my top10 last year.

Agree with the rest.

Top end talent I think is a maybe. Like any draft there will be a few top tier 1st liners/1st pair, a few average 1st liners/1st pair, and a handful of top 6/top 4 guys.

Where this draft will shine in comparison to the last 4 is that a lot of the guys in the late 1st through the end of the 2nd round seem a lot less like project picks and have profiles that very safely project as solid depth guys like Josh Doan, Chase Stillman, Brennan Othmann, Xavier Bourgault, Zach L'Heureux, Samu Tuomaala, etc.

 

[Frk It]

Just watched two shift-by-shift's on this guy and I am very underwhelmed. What do people see in this player beyond his shot? I see a player who is a poor skater, doesn't have a great motor, puck skills and playmaking is very poor (the play dies on his stick a lot)...what is there to like? I know this is a weak draft but even so I don't see any argument as to why you'd pick this kid in the top10 or thereabout. If you're a team looking for a goalscorer I think you're much better off selecting Sillinger or Coronato.

I think he will score goals, he kind of reminds me of Vanek.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I think he will score goals, he kind of reminds me of Vanek.

Vanek played defense, though. And he had decent wheels early in his career. They just fell off after he left Buffalo.

 

[Frk It]

Vanek played defense, though.

I don't know if the coaches that healthy scratched him frequently would agree.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I don't know if the coaches that healthy scratched him frequently would agree.

Vanek was pretty ok defensively in his Buffalo days from what I remember, and was thought of as a 2-way player in his draft year. And to be fair, the Yeo era Wild were kind of a shit show when Vanek was scratched there.

 

[57special]

Vanek played defense, though.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

He was hot garbage in Minnesota, no doubt. That wasn't always the case though.

 

[57special]

He was hot garbage in Minnesota, no doubt. That wasn't always the case though.

Great, creative offensive player. Never was a good defensive player. Simply had no desire to be.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Great, creative offensive player. Never was a good defensive player. Simply had no desire to be.

I think there was a lot more "f*** it" in his attitude in Minnesota than in Buffalo and even New York. I liked him in Detroit for what he was, but even there I never thought of him as a defensive liability. He wasn't great but Vanek was rarely the cause of the problem like Trevor Daley or Andreas Athanasiou for instance.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

Vanek played defense, though. And he had decent wheels early in his career. They just fell off after he left Buffalo.

woah what.....

 

[Hollel]

Top end talent I think is a maybe. Like any draft there will be a few top tier 1st liners/1st pair, a few average 1st liners/1st pair, and a handful of top 6/top 4 guys.

Where this draft will shine in comparison to the last 4 is that a lot of the guys in the late 1st through the end of the 2nd round seem a lot less like project picks and have profiles that very safely project as solid depth guys like Josh Doan, Chase Stillman, Brennan Othmann, Xavier Bourgault, Zach L'Heureux, Samu Tuomaala, etc.

I don't understand how you can diminish the talent and potential Lucius has because of his skating while saying someone like Josh Doan projects safely to the NHL, but alright.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I don't understand how you can diminish the talent and potential Lucius has because of his skating while saying someone like Josh Doan projects safely to the NHL, but alright.

Josh Doan isn't a bad skater, but I'm also not comparing him to Lucius at all. I said he falls into the group of "solid depth guys" which translates to "good 3rd and 4th liners who are capable of playing up a line for a short while."

I don't think Lucius has the profile of a guy who is going to be a 3rd or 4th liner grinder. To me he is either on a scoring line or over in Europe.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Just watched two shift-by-shift's on this guy and I am very underwhelmed. What do people see in this player beyond his shot? I see a player who is a poor skater, doesn't have a great motor, puck skills and playmaking is very poor (the play dies on his stick a lot)...what is there to like? I know this is a weak draft but even so I don't see any argument as to why you'd pick this kid in the top10 or thereabout. If you're a team looking for a goalscorer I think you're much better off selecting Sillinger or Coronato.

You're right that he doesn't have a great motor, but you really need to watch more of him than two shift-by-shift videos if you think his puck skills and playmaking are poor.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

I see his skating/game as similar to guys like Anders Lee and JVR. Not a great first step but once he gets going has decent speed. He's not really a transition guy but more of a zone possession player. There's plenty of room for those types in today's NHL. The question whether he stays at center or plays the wing.

 

[Bonin21]

I've seen and said it for years now. So many of the kids the Gophers are bringing in that are supposed to be first round picks, or that even end up as first round picks, lack NHL level skating. This catches up to them in college as their elite hands don't make the difference anymore.

Mittelstadt is not a strong skater.
Reedy was looking like a first rounder after his 11th grade year, but doesn't skate well.
Seth Ambroz
Tommy Novak

Lucius looks to be in the same mold. May put up a decent amount of points in college but not sure it's going to translate to the pros.

 

[Zaddy]

You're right that he doesn't have a great motor, but you really need to watch more of him than two shift-by-shift videos if you think his puck skills and playmaking are poor.

You could be right, but his assist totals would seem to match with my assessment, and that is consistent going back several seasons. His numbers have never pointed to him being a good playmaker and from two full games I didn't see him making many good passes. In fact, he had more giveaways than good passes in those games. So if he really is a good playmaker he was hiding it very well.

 

[MichaelFarrell]

I've seen and said it for years now. So many of the kids the Gophers are bringing in that are supposed to be first round picks, or that even end up as first round picks, lack NHL level skating. This catches up to them in college as their elite hands don't make the difference anymore.

Mittelstadt is not a strong skater.
Reedy was looking like a first rounder after his 11th grade year, but doesn't skate well.
Seth Ambroz
Tommy Novak

Lucius looks to be in the same mold. May put up a decent amount of points in college but not sure it's going to translate to the pros.

Chaz doesn’t just have hands though. His shot is legit. I don’t think he’ll be a center but I definitely think he could be a top 6 forward in the NHL.

Mittelstadt’s situation in my opinion is more of just going pro too early. I don’t think his skating is that bad, he just wasn’t mature enough yet. I still think it’s a safe bet to say Casey could be a good 2nd line center.

Also, I don’t think Reedy every really looked like a 1st rounder.

 

[Osakahaus]

I see his skating/game as similar to guys like Anders Lee and JVR. Not a great first step but once he gets going has decent speed. He's not really a transition guy but more of a zone possession player. There's plenty of room for those types in today's NHL. The question whether he stays at center or plays the wing.

if he's a guy like anders lee then its a very solid player.