F Chaz Lucius - USNTDP, USHL (2021, 18th, WPG)

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Any word on when he'll be back?

 

[Jaykay]

Already scored a goal in the first.

 

[Goon42]

Does anyone know what specifically the lower body injury was that kept him out for so long?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Two goals in his season debut against the best team in the league.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

Good for him. Had to be an awesome feeling for him to come in and make an impact.

 

[John Mandalorian]

How about some Chaz Energy?!

 

[Tube Skates]

Nice start to his return. Hopefully he will keep filling the net and get in to the top 5 talk

 

[montreal]

 

[MichaelFarrell]

Jump on that Lucius Bros bandwagon now.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

reminds me a ton of Boeser

 

[Nabrules]

Could he be the best forward in this Class? I don’t think it’s ridiculous to think that

 

[Goon42]

Could he be the best forward in this Class? I don’t think it’s ridiculous to think that

Could he end up the best forward? Absolutely.

Is he better than Eklund, Beniers, Johnson, Guenther right now? Absolutely not.

 

[Michael Sonday]

10 points (5g, 5a) in the last 3 games!

 

[robert ethan]

3 more USHL goals tonight. I think that makes 10 in 8 games. Who are Cole Sillinger and Matt Coronato again?

 

[Bonin21]

39 goals in 41 games is more impressive than 10 goals in 8 games.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Could he end up the best forward? Absolutely.

Is he better than Eklund, Beniers, Johnson, Guenther right now? Absolutely not.

Eklund, Beniers and Johnson are '02s, which means they have an extra year of development over an '03 like Lucius, so they should be expected to be better than Lucius right now.

 

[Bonin21]

Eklund, Beniers and Johnson are '02s, which means they have an extra year of development over an '03 like Lucius, so they should be expected to be better than Lucius right now.

In Minnesota late 02s and early 03s are in the same age class. This whole "extra year" thing is always overblown. If someone starts playing at 4 instead of 5, is that an extra year of development that should impact draft status?

 

[Hale The Villain]

In Minnesota late 02s and early 03s are in the same age class. This whole "extra year" thing is always overblown. If someone starts playing at 4 instead of 5, is that an extra year of development that should impact draft status?

If that's true than Minnesota does things very differently than most places where hockey players come from.

Beniers played two years for the USNTDP in 2018/19 and 2019/20. This is Lucius' 2nd year playing for the USNTDP. He's obviously a year ahead in development. Hence why Beniers is playing college hockey right now and Lucius is not. He's a year ahead in development and any comparisons should take that into consideration.

Same reason why Beniers can only play one more year at the WJC while Lucius could play in 2022 and 2023.

 

[Bonin21]

If that's true than Minnesota does things very differently than most places where hockey players come from.

Beniers played two years for the USNTDP in 2018/19 and 2019/20. This is Lucius' 2nd year playing for the USNTDP. He's obviously a year ahead in development. Hence why Beniers is playing college hockey right now and Lucius is not. He's a year ahead in development and any comparisons should take that into consideration.

Same reason why Beniers can only play one more year at the WJC while Lucius could play in 2022 and 2023.

Lucius is in his second year at NTDP because those are the NTDP age rules. If he was eligible he probably would have gone for his 10th and 11th grade year and played college hockey this year.

If you are drafting you factor this in, but you are stupid if you penalize Lucius for being born after Jan 1. You're drafting for potential, not for what level competition they play right now (which is mostly not chosen by them).

 

[Hale The Villain]

Lucius is in his second year at NTDP because those are the NTDP age rules. If he was eligible he probably would have gone for his 10th and 11th grade year and played college hockey this year.

If you are drafting you factor this in, but you are stupid if you penalize Lucius for being born after Jan 1. You're drafting for potential, not for what level competition they play right now (which is mostly not chosen by them).

Those are also the rules that apply to the CHL. They get to play in their 16YR old (grade 11) and 17YR old (grade 12) seasons. Only players given exceptional status get to play in their 15YR old season (grade 10).

Due to the NHL not wanting minors (non-adults) entering training camps they put the late-birthday rule in place, which causes a 2002 born like Beniers to be drafted with a 2003 like Lucius, even though he's a year ahead in development.

I'm not penalizing anyone. You'd be doing a '03 like Lucius a disservice comparing him uncritically to an '02 like Beniers without acknowledging that the latter is a season ahead development-wise. If NHL teams did the same it would lead to Beniers' potential being overrated and lead him being overdrafted.

 

[robert ethan]

Lucius will be the mystery gift box someone gets to unwrap this year. There doesn't seem to be much consensus other than that he has a great shot.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Lucius will be the mystery gift box someone gets to unwrap this year. There doesn't seem to be much consensus other than that he has a great shot.

I don’t think he’s a mystery box or there’s much disagreement about his skillset. He’s missed most of the season, but so has Guenther. There’s not much mystery about Lucius.

 

[DrSense]

I don’t think he’s a mystery box or there’s much disagreement about his skillset. He’s missed most of the season, but so has Guenther. There’s not much mystery about Lucius.

The point is that with a smaller sample size and limited viewings, there is more variability and less consensus on his upside. It's similar to players being drafted like Nolan Patrick, Alex Galchenyuk and many others with limited play and less viewings in their draft year. There is a certain amount of this for all players this year for sure, but a player Lucius in particular in the US.

In Canada though, there is practically half of our draft class who is the same boat to one degree or another. Even for some of those playing, how do you evaluate Brandt Clarke based on playing in a random Slovakian junior league? I have no idea either.

 

[robert ethan]

I don’t think he’s a mystery box or there’s much disagreement about his skillset. He’s missed most of the season, but so has Guenther. There’s not much mystery about Lucius.

I'd have no idea what a team would get from Lucius at the NHL level. Great scoring instinct, but everything else seems average to poor. Is there a part of his game that could limit his opportunities?

 

[Bonin21]

For the love of all that is holy, just don't rush him to the NHL like Casey Mittelstadt.