F Chaz Lucius - USNTDP, USHL (2021, 18th, WPG)

[Bonin21]

Anders Lee was a legitimate speed skater in HS. That's a pure bred stride a la Skjei and a few other Minnesotans. I don't get that comparison at all.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Lucius is universally looked at by all of the major scouting services as a 10-15 pick and more than likely that is where he'll go, maybe higher if some team is in love with his skill-set. Teams are looking for offensive sparks/finishers which is what he is.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

if he's a guy like anders lee then its a very solid player.

All I'm saying is you don't need to be Barzal or Skinner to be an effective player at the NHL level. There are more than a few guys who lack first step quickness or lateral movement but that still have enough speed to be productive.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Anders Lee was a legitimate speed skater in HS. That's a pure bred stride a la Skjei and a few other Minnesotans. I don't get that comparison at all.

How would you categorize Lee's skating in the NHL today?

 

[Hale The Villain]

Anders Lee was a legitimate speed skater in HS. That's a pure bred stride a la Skjei and a few other Minnesotans. I don't get that comparison at all.

Not to mention he is an absolute physical specimen. Dude is listed at 235lbs.

Lucius needs to put on weight on his frame. Height is decent but the strength isn't there yet, so he can get pushed off the puck a little too easily right now.

Luckily that's a deficiency that is generally fixable. Same goes for his skating. Can't teach his IQ and skill though.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

You could be right, but his assist totals would seem to match with my assessment, and that is consistent going back several seasons. His numbers have never pointed to him being a good playmaker and from two full games I didn't see him making many good passes. In fact, he had more giveaways than good passes in those games. So if he really is a good playmaker he was hiding it very well.

....or maybe his bread and butter is goal scoring and that is how he's deployed? I mean, some of your same criticisms could be applied to a guy like Auston Matthews who doesn't put up a ton of assists relative to goals but is a credible playmaker.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Not to mention he is an absolute physical specimen. Dude is listed at 235lbs.

Lucius needs to put on weight on his frame. Height is decent but the strength isn't there yet, so he can get pushed off the puck a little too easily right now.

Luckily that's a deficiency that is generally fixable. Same goes for his skating. Can't teach his IQ and skill though.

That is fair. Lee is much bigger/stronger but Lucius has time to work on those things.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Anders Lee was a legitimate speed skater in HS. That's a pure bred stride a la Skjei and a few other Minnesotans. I don't get that comparison at all.

Not to mention he plays a power forward game. The guy in this draft that compares with Anders Lee is Mason McTavish.

 

[Osakahaus]

All I'm saying is you don't need to be Barzal or Skinner to be an effective player at the NHL level. There are more than a few guys who lack first step quickness or lateral movement but that still have enough speed to be productive.

As long as you can forecheck and live around the net, then you can survive, just ask jake guentzel that

 

[Zaddy]

....or maybe his bread and butter is goal scoring and that is how he's deployed? I mean, some of your same criticisms could be applied to a guy like Auston Matthews who doesn't put up a ton of assists relative to goals but is a credible playmaker.

Matthews had more assists than goals in both his seasons with the USNTDP unlike Lucius, and there was never any worry about his playmaking ability when you watched him pre-draft. Matthews was (and is) a very special talent, the two really aren't comparable.

Lucius is a center too so just by virtue of playing through the middle you'd assume he'd pick up assists automatically, yet he somehow fails to do so. And it's not just about the numbers, but when the numbers match what you see on the ice...it's pretty rare for both to be wrong.

 

[Bonin21]

Matthews was like an NHLer in 11th grade. Can only be compared to very few.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Matthews had more assists than goals in both his seasons with the USNTDP unlike Lucius, and there was never any worry about his playmaking ability when you watched him pre-draft. Matthews was (and is) a very special talent, the two really aren't comparable.

Lucius is a center too so just by virtue of playing through the middle you'd assume he'd pick up assists automatically, yet he somehow fails to do so. And it's not just about the numbers, but when the numbers match what you see on the ice...it's pretty rare for both to be wrong.

A list of 1st round centers with more goals than assists in their draft year since the lockout:

Steven Stamkos
Michael Rasmussen
Luke Kunin
Joel Eriksson Ek
Dylan Larkin
Bo Horvat
Curtis Lazar
Brock Nelson
Kyle Turris
Jonathan Toews
Patrik Berglund

It's an exclusive club since 95% of goal scorers are wingers, but a lot of those centers don't have issues passing the puck.

I've watched all of Lucius' 13 games this year in the USHL and I don't see an issue with his playmaking/vision when he moves the puck.

The reason for his lack of assists is the style of game he plays. He's an opportunistic sniper that tries to get lost in coverage and open himself up for scoring opportunities off of passes from teammates. He's not a dominant puck possession player that controls the play.

 

[Zaddy]

The reason for his lack of assists is the style of game he plays. He's an opportunistic sniper that tries to get lost in coverage and open himself up for scoring opportunities off of passes from teammates. He's not a dominant puck possession player that controls the play.

But this is exactly the problem and what I talked about in my initial post. What does he offer beyond his shot? His skating is subpar, he's not good defensively, he doesn't get involved in the play. What's the appeal? You have to have something more in your toolbox than just a good shot to play in the NHL. Calling Lucius one-dimensional would even be a compliment at this stage I feel like. Maybe he can get there with time, but he has a lot of work ahead of him. I don't see him as a top15, maybe top20 even, prospect in this draft.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

He reminds me of Max Pacioretty with none of the explosiveness.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

But this is exactly the problem and what I talked about in my initial post. What does he offer beyond his shot? His skating is subpar, he's not good defensively, he doesn't get involved in the play. What's the appeal? You have to have something more in your toolbox than just a good shot to play in the NHL. Calling Lucius one-dimensional would even be a compliment at this stage I feel like. Maybe he can get there with time, but he has a lot of work ahead of him. I don't see him as a top15, maybe top20 even, prospect in this draft.

Why are you being so negative about it though? If you think a top 20-25 pick in this draft, isn’t that a good player? Shouldn’t that player have a chance to be a top six NHL’er? The way you are describing him is if he has no chance to be a good NHL’er.

Who even ranks him within the top 10? All the players you’ll draft outside of the top 10 have things they are good at and things they need to work on. It seems you are overly focusing on the negatives.

 

[sasha barkov]

Wonder if Anaheim would reach on him at 3 if they really are desperate for legit goal scorers …. Highly doubt it given they will have the option of Hughes , Edvinsson , Eklund, and Guenther on the board. I mean they do have really good connections in Minny …

 

[Zaddy]

Why are you being so negative about it though? If you think a top 20-25 pick in this draft, isn’t that a good player? Shouldn’t that player have a chance to be a top six NHL’er? The way you are describing him is if he has no chance to be a good NHL’er.

I actually have no idea where I'll end up ranking him as I haven't seen a lot of the guys ranked in that 20-40 range yet. But I can say that of all the guys I've watched so far that is ranked by most scouting services in the top15 he is the one I've by far disliked the most.

The other thing is that this draft is looking really weak. The guys I have rated just outside the top10 would probably be 10 spots lower in a normal draft. So I might not even be able to drop him that far because of how poor the depth appears to be.

There are guys who are picked in the 1st round every year that end up being busts, so if I end up ranking Lucius in the 1st round it doesn't mean that I particularly like him, it just means that I believe he has more NHL upside than some others in this draft, which in itself isn't saying much.

I don't see it as me being negative, I see it as me being realistic. I mean look at the threads on these boards from year to year, most players don't come even close to what they were projected to be. Players are never as hyped as they are in their draft years but few succeed in living up to expectations. What I'm trying to do is to poke holes in players games and see what might limit them from reaching a high level.

Like Dylan Strome was picked #3 (in probably the deepest draft the past decade), Michael Dal Colle #5, Griffin Reinhart #4, Nail Yakupov #1. The list goes on. I think it's way better to be highly critical of prospects than to just look at the things they do well and turn a blind eye to the rest of their game. That way you just might be able to avoid some of the bigger disappointments in the draft.

 

[Hale The Villain]

But this is exactly the problem and what I talked about in my initial post. What does he offer beyond his shot? His skating is subpar, he's not good defensively, he doesn't get involved in the play. What's the appeal? You have to have something more in your toolbox than just a good shot to play in the NHL. Calling Lucius one-dimensional would even be a compliment at this stage I feel like. Maybe he can get there with time, but he has a lot of work ahead of him. I don't see him as a top15, maybe top20 even, prospect in this draft.

His skating isn't that bad when you consider he came back halfway through the year after dealing with a knee injury. Wasn't skating at 100% this year.

Lucius' best asset is probably his IQ. He's a very smart player and it's his instincts and ability to get open that are mainly behind his high goal totals, not his shot. He knows where to be around the net and he reads the play very well.

I don't even think his shot is all that great right now. He's got a nice release and knows where to put it, but there's room for improvement in his shot power as he continues to put on weight and get stronger. If you compare his shot right now at 170-180lbs to the other top snipers in this draft like McTavish and Sillinger who are much further along in their physical development being 200lb+, his potential as a goal scorer is exciting once he bulks up.

I see a kid with top 6 IQ, skill and scoring ability, but with several weaknesses and by no means is a finished product. The assets he has you can't teach, while his deficiencies (weight, skating, defensive play) are all fixable. He's not a perfect prospect, but I would definitely take him in the 10-15 range.

 

[Lt Dan]

I want my team to draft Chaz on name alone

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I actually have no idea where I'll end up ranking him as I haven't seen a lot of the guys ranked in that 20-40 range yet. But I can say that of all the guys I've watched so far that is ranked by most scouting services in the top15 he is the one I've by far disliked the most.

The other thing is that this draft is looking really weak. The guys I have rated just outside the top10 would probably be 10 spots lower in a normal draft. So I might not even be able to drop him that far because of how poor the depth appears to be.

There are guys who are picked in the 1st round every year that end up being busts, so if I end up ranking Lucius in the 1st round it doesn't mean that I particularly like him, it just means that I believe he has more NHL upside than some others in this draft, which in itself isn't saying much.

I don't see it as me being negative, I see it as me being realistic. I mean look at the threads on these boards from year to year, most players don't come even close to what they were projected to be. Players are never as hyped as they are in their draft years but few succeed in living up to expectations. What I'm trying to do is to poke holes in players games and see what might limit them from reaching a high level.

Like Dylan Strome was picked #3 (in probably the deepest draft the past decade), Michael Dal Colle #5, Griffin Reinhart #4, Nail Yakupov #1. The list goes on. I think it's way better to be highly critical of prospects than to just look at the things they do well and turn a blind eye to the rest of their game. That way you just might be able to avoid some of the bigger disappointments in the draft.

I have no issue with someone wanting to be realistic about these first round picks. I agree that there's a tendency to project too much out of these players. There are going to be some players who bust, and often times people will get upset if you call a player a likely bust before about 2-3 years after a high pick is drafted. They can't all be good. It doesn't work like that. There are only so many spots in the NHL, and drafts usually produce a specific amount of good players.

Saying that, I'm not sure Lucius applies to that thinking. I'm no big fan of Lucius, but there has to be some middle ground. We can't just ignore that this guy has been one of the best per game goal scorers at the NTDP in a long time. He has a knack for putting the puck in the net. He also does it in a very repeatable way. He finds space behind a coverage scheme of a defense, and is able to get scoring chances that way. He also is very good around the net of finding loose pucks, and using his hands, which are probably the best part of his game, to score in close with little space. He doesn't do it by blasting long shots or by trying to deke the whole defense.

He does it in a similar way to Caufield. I remember people were convinced that Caufield would bust. They were convinced about it as recently as the WJC six months ago. And Caufield is a lot smaller than Lucius. There are a lot of the same concerns with not much of a defensive game, not much of a playmaking game, skating isn't that good. Caufield was never likely to bust, and I say that as someone who wasn't a huge fan of him either. He had a long history of scoring goals and did it in a very repeatable way that will translate all the way up to the NHL. I think the same will apply for Lucius.

I don't think Lucius has much star potential. As you mention, the skating isn't good, he's probably not a center, he's not much of a playmaker, he's weak defensively. He doesn't even score goals in a way that makes you think 40-50 goals is a possibility, if he hits his ceiling. But he absolutely will score goals at a good rate in the NHL, as I view it. I am pretty sure he will do that for the next few years at a high rate, and then do so in the NHL within a few years. If he can improve his skating a little to make it average as opposed to slightly below average, become a passable defensive player, and get stronger to better be able to withstand the rigors of scoring goals in the NHL without a great outside shot, I think thats probably the difference between a middle six goal scoring winger and a second line or potentially top line goal scoring winger.

 

[Osakahaus]

i would love if he absolutely became a power forward in todays game. it feels like they're a dying breed of player now

 

[Zaddy]

I have no issue with someone wanting to be realistic about these first round picks. I agree that there's a tendency to project too much out of these players. There are going to be some players who bust, and often times people will get upset if you call a player a likely bust before about 2-3 years after a high pick is drafted. They can't all be good. It doesn't work like that. There are only so many spots in the NHL, and drafts usually produce a specific amount of good players.

Saying that, I'm not sure Lucius applies to that thinking. I'm no big fan of Lucius, but there has to be some middle ground. We can't just ignore that this guy has been one of the best per game goal scorers at the NTDP in a long time. He has a knack for putting the puck in the net. He also does it in a very repeatable way. He finds space behind a coverage scheme of a defense, and is able to get scoring chances that way. He also is very good around the net of finding loose pucks, and using his hands, which are probably the best part of his game, to score in close with little space. He doesn't do it by blasting long shots or by trying to deke the whole defense.

Absolutely it applies to Lucius. It applies to everyone. If a 1st overall pick can completely bust (and as recently as 2012) then so can anyone. Prospects much better, more complete and and more highly regarded than Lucius has either busted or fell way short of expectations. It happens literally all the time. Why would Lucius be any different?

He does it in a similar way to Caufield. I remember people were convinced that Caufield would bust. They were convinced about it as recently as the WJC six months ago. And Caufield is a lot smaller than Lucius. There are a lot of the same concerns with not much of a defensive game, not much of a playmaking game, skating isn't that good. Caufield was never likely to bust, and I say that as someone who wasn't a huge fan of him either. He had a long history of scoring goals and did it in a very repeatable way that will translate all the way up to the NHL. I think the same will apply for Lucius.

Well I can't speak for others, I can only speak for myself and I don't think Lucius and Caufield are in the same stratosphere when it comes to talent and overall ability. I loved Caufield and was never in doubt he'd be a very good player. I think he had a lot more going for him than Lucius despite being so much smaller, which should say a lot.

I don't think Lucius has much star potential. As you mention, the skating isn't good, he's probably not a center, he's not much of a playmaker, he's weak defensively. He doesn't even score goals in a way that makes you think 40-50 goals is a possibility, if he hits his ceiling. But he absolutely will score goals at a good rate in the NHL, as I view it. I am pretty sure he will do that for the next few years at a high rate, and then do so in the NHL within a few years. If he can improve his skating a little to make it average as opposed to slightly below average, become a passable defensive player, and get stronger to better be able to withstand the rigors of scoring goals in the NHL without a great outside shot, I think thats probably the difference between a middle six goal scoring winger and a second line or potentially top line goal scoring winger.

Now this part of your post is very level-headed and clear-minded IMO. This assessment seems very fair and is really not too dissimilar from what I see. But there are also a lot of "if's" in there. It's easy to assume that he'll round out his game and get his weak parts up to NHL standards but it's not always that easy.

NHL is a tough league to play in, and the problem with Lucius (in my view) is that 1. he is pretty far behind in some of these attributes 2. he doesn't have a back-up 'skill' to fall back on. He's not going to be a grinder, an energy guy or a playmaker. If his goal-scoring doesn't translate he will bust. If his goal-scoring translates but his skating and/or defensive game is not good enough he will also bust in the long run.

So while I believe he has NHL upside I also believe he carries a lot of risk and frankly I don't think he has enough upside to warrant taking that risk and picking him early in the draft. That's what it comes down to for me.

 

[UrbanImpact]

I thought it was Mctavish that was going to be the Centre that will be surprisingly drafted in the top 9, it looks like it might be Chaz instead.

 

[Zaddy]

@Pavel Buchnevich If we're going to compare Lucius to a former high-end goal-scoring forward for the NTDP I'd say Kieffer Bellows is a much better comparison than Cole Caufield. That's probably the type of player you're looking at with Lucius.

 

[Hale The Villain]

@Pavel Buchnevich If we're going to compare Lucius to a former high-end goal-scoring forward for the NTDP I'd say Kieffer Bellows is a much better comparison than Cole Caufield. That's probably the type of player you're looking at with Lucius.

Bellows is a terrible comparison. They play nothing alike.

I'd suggest watching more than two games of Lucius.