Absolutely it applies to Lucius. It applies to everyone. If a 1st overall pick can completely bust (and as recently as 2012) then so can anyone. Prospects much better, more complete and and more highly regarded than Lucius has either busted or fell way short of expectations. It happens literally all the time. Why would Lucius be any different?
My point might've not been clear. I'm not saying it can't apply for Lucius, I simply don't think it will. When I look at the 20-25 names that most agree will be first round picks, Lucius is among the category I would say have a pretty safe ceiling, and aren't going to be playing in Austria or Switzerland at age 26. And obviously being safe doesn't guarantee NHL success, but I think the calculation with Lucius is a smaller range of possibilities than most players due to the nature of his game and his past few seasons of production.
Well I can't speak for others, I can only speak for myself and I don't think Lucius and Caufield are in the same stratosphere when it comes to talent and overall ability. I loved Caufield and was never in doubt he'd be a very good player. I think he had a lot more going for him than Lucius despite being so much smaller, which should say a lot.
My point here might've not been clear either. I'm not trying to compare him to Caufield. There are obvious differences, but I think the way they score goals is similar. I think it's very repeatable, and both have a long history at the NTDP of scoring goals. I think that type of pedigree as an elite goal scoring winger at the NTDP, along with a very repeatable method of goal scoring that should translate up to higher level made Caufield a safe prospect in the middle of the first round, and makes Lucius a safe prospect in the middle of the first round. For other reasons, I wasn't a big fan of either player, but I think the bigger picture of both players is similar, not that I think the best comparable for Lucius game is Caufield.
Now this part of your post is very level-headed and clear-minded IMO. This assessment seems very fair and is really not too dissimilar from what I see. But there are also a lot of "if's" in there. It's easy to assume that he'll round out his game and get his weak parts up to NHL standards but it's not always that easy.
NHL is a tough league to play in, and the problem with Lucius (in my view) is that 1. he is pretty far behind in some of these attributes 2. he doesn't have a back-up 'skill' to fall back on. He's not going to be a grinder, an energy guy or a playmaker. If his goal-scoring doesn't translate he will bust. If his goal-scoring translates but his skating and/or defensive game is not good enough he will also bust in the long run.
So while I believe he has NHL upside I also believe he carries a lot of risk and frankly I don't think he has enough upside to warrant taking that risk and picking him early in the draft. That's what it comes down to for me.
But how unrealistic are those ifs?
The guy is 6'0 175, not 5'7 130. He may need to get stronger, but if he puts on 20 pounds in the next three years, he'll he about 6'0 195. It's not as if this exact bulking-up discussion isn't had about many 18 year old prospects every year. How many of them at around 6'0 175 are physically incapable of adding the needed strength? That seems like more of a formality that will take a few years.
The defense equation is another discussion that is had about many 18 year old prospects. Defense is one of the easiest parts of the game to improve. It's a lot more effort based, and simple hockey sense based. You don't need to have one of the best hockey senses in the sport to learn how to more effectively play within a defensive scheme and position yourself better. Also, some of defense equation comes with getting physically stronger, and receiving better coaching, the types of things he should get as he moves up to NCAA hockey, and then eventually AHL/NHL hockey. Defense may still be a question for Lucius at age 22, but if it's so much of a question that it hinders his outlook, his offensive game probably didn't pan out as expected. There are very few players who the defensive part of the game is a huge weakness they need to overcome. It's usually something that gets better with age and physical development. With some players its a strength, but for a likely winger I find it to be a pretty weak discussion point.
The real question is the skating. I guess this is more of a question of how someone views it. I don't think anyone thinks it's a strength, but I don't know that I think its terrible or something that'll keep him from reaching the NHL. I think it's a little below average right now, and probably at a level where he should be able to get it to NHL average. Saying that, I'm not a skating mechanics guru, so I'm not sure sure about the technical aspects of his skating. Maybe you think it's a lot worse than I do, and that may be where we differ on how realistic the ifs are. I'm not sure Lucius has anything holding him back in a big way. I think he has some minor questions that he'll almost surely be working on, like all prospects have, and he's one of the safer bets in this first round for an effective NHL career due to his goal scoring ability.
