F Alexis Lafreniere - Rimouski Oceanic, QMJHL (2020 Draft) Part 2

[Treb]

Fair enough but at a 17 YO his numbers were essentially the same as PLD. Dubois is one hell of a player but he’s was never considered as a first overall quality player. I like AL a lot but as of now I think if he does for first overal imo he’s a lower end first overall in the mold of RNH

Huntington vs Svechnikov. Also, PLD posted these numbers in his draft year, while Lafrenière is in his D-1.

Also important to consider PO production. Lafrenière had 1.77 ppg to PLD 1.00 PPG. Lafrenière had more points in 13 games in his D-1 than PLD did in 19 games in his D+1.

I definitely don't agree he's a low tier 1OA.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Probably a silly question, but could Lafreniere ever convert to center?

 

[Hockey Man]

Probably a silly question, but could Lafreniere ever convert to center?

yes

 

[Nabrules]

Huntington vs Svechnikov. Also, PLD posted these numbers in his draft year, while Lafrenière is in his D-1.

Also important to consider PO production. Lafrenière had 1.77 ppg to PLD 1.00 PPG. Lafrenière had more points in 13 games in his D-1 than PLD did in 19 games in his D+1.

I definitely don't agree he's a low tier 1OA.

That’s true but Hunington was an overager, was most Likely going to put up decent numbers anyway after being so experiences in the league.

that doesn’t really matter, I’m comparing their 17 YO seasons. That stupid sep 15th rule makes no sense to me!

I guess we’ll find out how good Lafreniere becomes. I see him as a 70-75 point winger in the NHL. Really good but not at the level of most first overall picks recently.

Think Byfield and Raymond will really challenge him this year!

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

That’s true but Hunington was an overager, was most Likely going to put up decent numbers anyway after being so experiences in the league.

that doesn’t really matter, I’m comparing their 17 YO seasons. That stupid sep 15th rule makes no sense to me!

I guess we’ll find out how good Lafreniere becomes. I see him as a 70-75 point winger in the NHL. Really good but not at the level of most first overall picks recently.

Think Byfield and Raymond will really challenge him this year!

1) Players don't typically see a 63% increase in production just because they turn 20.

2) Comparing their 17 YO seasons for comparison is just as arbitrary as using their draft year. In fact, I would argue it's worse: it punishes players like Lafrenière that are born in the last quarter of the year, despite the fact that these players are already punished during their development by being the youngest players in their age group (relative age effect), and the fact that these players are just as productive (and maybe slightly more productive) than their counterparts in the pros.

Even so, I could see him be passed over in the draft, mostly because he's a winger. I'm just not sure it would be a good decision.

 

[Andy Lehoux]

Here's my scouting report on Alexis Lafrenière if anyone is interested. Would love to hear your opinion!

 

[ijuka]

2) Comparing their 17 YO seasons for comparison is just as arbitrary as using their draft year. In fact, I would argue it's worse: it punishes players like Lafrenière that are born in the last quarter of the year, despite the fact that these players are already punished during their development by being the youngest players in their age group (relative age effect), and the fact that these players are just as productive (and maybe slightly more productive) than their counterparts in the pros.

Shrug, I think you're blowing that way out of proportion. Lafreniere isn't comparatively even 4 months older than Pierre-Luc Dubois. It obviously makes far more logical sense to compare their seasons by age group.

I'd also note, though, that Pierre-Luc Dubois was seen as a W.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

Shrug, I think you're blowing that way out of proportion. Lafreniere isn't comparatively even 4 months older than Pierre-Luc Dubois. It obviously makes far more logical sense to compare their seasons by age group.

Literally everyone is comparing players by age group. The question is which arbitrary cutoff do you use to set age groups? Draft cutoff or birthyear cutoff? Neither is "more logical" than the other: they're purely arbitrary.

I personally think the draft cutoff is better because it might correlate better to future outcome, by slightly compensating for the well-documented disadvantage of being a late birthday. That was the point of my post.

And let's remember QMJHL and OHL are rather different in quality.

Both those players were QMJHL players?

 

[ijuka]

Both those players were QMJHL players?

Yeah, I'm not sure why I jumped to thinking about Byfield along the way. Hmm. I guess that's what I took PLD discussion to be about. I honestly don't get why I even said that, it wouldn't have made sense even if PLD was an OHL player. That's why I usually proofread my posts 3 times --

Sigh, some other parts of my post make no sense as well. I guess that post belongs in my hall of shame.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Sigh, some other parts of my post make no sense as well. I guess that post belongs in my hall of shame.

It’s ok, everyone on this site’s had one of those.

 

[supermann_98]

Here's my scouting report on Alexis Lafrenière if anyone is interested. Would love to hear your opinion!

Great video, this kid looks so great. If I was the team drafting him I'd try to shift him to center, his vision is amazing

 

[yeaher]

Great video, this kid looks so great. If I was the team drafting him I'd try to shift him to center, his vision is amazing

He will be a great 1-2 with McDavid

 

[Karl Eriksson]

Smell like derrière for Lafreniere

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

Yeah, I'm not sure why I jumped to thinking about Byfield along the way. Hmm. I guess that's what I took PLD discussion to be about. I honestly don't get why I even said that, it wouldn't have made sense even if PLD was an OHL player. That's why I usually proofread my posts 3 times --

Sigh, some other parts of my post make no sense as well. I guess that post belongs in my hall of shame.

Honestly, Byfield vs Lafrenière is interesting too. Though I'm not sure I want to jumpstart that one since I'm pretty sure there will be 20 threads on that topic as soon as the offseason ends.

In any case, I don't see PLD as a great comparable for Lafrenière. The latter is a more patient, smarter player. PLD, even in juniors, was more of a "funnel everything on net" kind of guy.

 

[McRpro]

Smell like derrière for Lafreniere

Smell like @$$ for Alexas

 

[Karl Eriksson]

Smell like @$$ for Alexas

Mine actually uses his name tho

 

[Andy Lehoux]

Wrote an in-depth piece on Lafrenière for FC, breaking down every aspect on his play.

Getting to know: Alexis Lafrenière

 

[Hisch13r]

Probably a silly question, but could Lafreniere ever convert to center?

I don't even really get why he's been a winger. His game seems like it'd be perfect for a center

 

[nbwingsfan]

That’s true but Hunington was an overager, was most Likely going to put up decent numbers anyway after being so experiences in the league.

that doesn’t really matter, I’m comparing their 17 YO seasons. That stupid sep 15th rule makes no sense to me!

I guess we’ll find out how good Lafreniere becomes. I see him as a 70-75 point winger in the NHL. Really good but not at the level of most first overall picks recently.

Think Byfield and Raymond will really challenge him this year!

What makes people think Byfield is going to challenge Lafrenière? Because he’s huge? I thought we were done with that by now.

Even if you wanted to compare Lafrenière’s 16yo season to Byfield (you shouldn’t) he still blows him out of the water. There’s also the fact that huge players like Byfield can man handle other 16-18yo in the Q with ease but can’t get away with the same stuff once they hit the NHL. That seems to be lost on most people.

 

[member 157595]

It’s ok, everyone on this site’s had one of those.

Wait, you mean we're only supposed to have ONE post that doesn't make any sense? I'm screwed.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Smell like derrière for Lafreniere

Mine actually uses his name tho

Dernière pour Lafrenière is the obvious choice.

 

[scoutman1]

What makes people think Byfield is going to challenge Lafrenière? Because he’s huge? I thought we were done with that by now.

Even if you wanted to compare Lafrenière’s 16yo season to Byfield (you shouldn’t) he still blows him out of the water. There’s also the fact that huge players like Byfield can man handle other 16-18yo in the Q with ease but can’t get away with the same stuff once they hit the NHL. That seems to be lost on most people.

not sure how you can say that about the man handling...Byfield was 16 getting by with skill that not too many big guys have, great skating, excellent hands and offensive ability and having a big body...when you watch Lafreniere play you always expect to see a game breaker but you really do not notice him much on the ice...he does not have that game breaker pizazz that I would expect from a 1st overall...Byfield IMO has a chance to have that...and if a 16 year old is man handling 18 and 20 year olds well have to imagine that he keeps getting stronger and more scary...work for Eric Lindros (not comparing talent just making refrence, Lindros to me was one of my favorite players of all time and would have been in top 10 of all time till Stevens did his head hunting BS)

 

[93LEAFS]

What makes people think Byfield is going to challenge Lafrenière? Because he’s huge? I thought we were done with that by now.

Even if you wanted to compare Lafrenière’s 16yo season to Byfield (you shouldn’t) he still blows him out of the water. There’s also the fact that huge players like Byfield can man handle other 16-18yo in the Q with ease but can’t get away with the same stuff once they hit the NHL. That seems to be lost on most people.

Byfield's raw-tools are unreal. The question is can he turn that package into a dominant player at 17 in the OHL this year. Big question with Byfield is, can he be more than the sum of his parts/does he have that it factor. If he does, he'll be a worthy challenger. I haven't seen it yet. He's notably behind some of the other very highly hyped 16-year-olds in the OHL I've seen like McDavid, Tavares, Stamkos and even Taylor Hall to a lesser extent. Now, all those guys went one, and have shown to be worthy of it. The Lindros type comparisons are a reach. Lindros was before my time, but by all accounts, he was essentially a top 5 player in the OHL at 16, something Byfield wasnt, and only a very few players can make that claim (McDavid, JT, and Stamkos from guys I've seen).

 

[nbwingsfan]

Byfield's raw-tools are unreal. The question is can he turn that package into a dominant player at 17 in the OHL this year. Big question with Byfield is, can he be more than the sum of his parts/does he have that it factor. If he does, he'll be a worthy challenger. I haven't seen it yet. He's notably behind some of the other very highly hyped 16-year-olds in the OHL I've seen like McDavid, Tavares, Stamkos and even Taylor Hall to a lesser extent. Now, all those guys went one, and have shown to be worthy of it. The Lindros type comparisons are a reach. Lindros was before my time, but by all accounts, he was essentially a top 5 player in the OHL at 16, something Byfield wasnt, and only a very few players can make that claim (McDavid, JT, and Stamkos from guys I've seen).

Absolutely his tools are amazing there’s no denying that. But all this talk about his size is also ignoring that some of the moves he pulls in Junior won’t fly in the NHL because he will no longer be 4inches taller/50pds heavier than the vast majority of the league.

We will have a better idea this season, but as of now Lafrenière has been the much, much better player every step of the way.

There’s really nothing to suggest Byfield should be ahead of him other than “what if” scenarios

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Absolutely his tools are amazing there’s no denying that. But all this talk about his size is also ignoring that some of the moves he pulls in Junior won’t fly in the NHL because he will no longer be 4inches taller/50pds heavier than the vast majority of the league.

We will have a better idea this season, but as of now Lafrenière has been the much, much better player every step of the way.

There’s really nothing to suggest Byfield should be ahead of him other than “what if” scenarios

Well that's just it. Potential. Maybe no one catches Lafreniere or challenges him for #1. If you had to pick a player you think might have the potential to challenge him, who would that be? You may say , no one will, Lafreniere will double down and show everyone he is still well ahead. Others look at Byfields size and abilities and project him to potentially challenge Lafreniere ...if... Maybe Raymond will set the world on fire in the SHL if he's given the chance and challenge .. its conjecture.